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NIDIS-Supported Efforts in the ACF River Basin. Puneet Srivastava Associate Professor Department of Biosystems Engineering Auburn University. Chris Martinez Assistant Professor Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department University of Florida. Jessica Bolson - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NIDIS-Supported Efforts in the ACF River Basin
Puneet SrivastavaAssociate Professor
Department of Biosystems EngineeringAuburn University
Chris MartinezAssistant Professor
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
University of Florida
Jessica BolsonPost-Doctoral Fellow
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
University of Florida
Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought InformationPuneet Srivastava (PI), Latif Kalin, Keith Ingram, David Stooksbury, Pam Knox, Jessica Bolson, Muthuvel Chelliah, Richard Marcus, and Matt Dunn
Needs, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United StatesChris Martinez (PI), Norman Breuer, Jessica Bolson, Jim Jones, David Stooksbury, and Tatiana Borisova
Short-term Stream flow Forecast Using Southeast River Forecast Center’s Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)Puneet Srivastava (PI), Keith Ingram, Latif Kalin, Todd Hamill, and Muthuvel Chelliah
Three separate objectives
Assess drought-related climate information needs, perceptions, and attitudes of municipal water managers and identify current water supply and drought mitigation policies
Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information
Quantify the value of drought information for municipal water managers, and evaluate alternative policies for drought risk reduction
Reducing Drought Risks in the Southeast USA: Quantification of Drought Information Value, Development of Drought Indices, and Communication of Drought Information
Three separate objectives
Assess water resource managers’ needs, uses, perceptions, and attitudes of weather and climate information and identify barriers and opportunities for adoption
Develop regional evaporation forecasts for reservoir managers
Incorporate information on weather and climate variability and change, its potential impacts, and forecast products into educational materials for stakeholders
Needs, Uses, Perceptions, and Attitudes towards Weather and Climate Forecast Information by Water Resource Managers in the Southeastern United States
Stakeholder Assessment-Rationale
• In order to provide usable scientific input into decision making, region and sector specific assessment of stakeholders’ needs is essential
• Relevant forecasts and decision support are those that fit with decisions being made by stakeholders
Stakeholder Assessment- Goals
• Identify needs, uses, and perceptions of weather and climate forecast information by water resource management community
• Establish a dialogue between water resource managers in the ACF and researchers of the SECC
Stakeholder Assessment-Approach
• Web-based internet survey
• Follow-up semi-structured interviews– In person– Phone
• Iterative feedback using tools/forecasts currently under development as examples
Stakeholder Assessment- The Process
• Contact state, regional, and local managers and stakeholders who make decisions on water supply or water resource management or who influence these decisions
• Conduct internet surveys and interviews to identify uses, perceptions, information needs, information gaps, and potential barriers to adoption of forecasts
Stakeholder Assessment- Targeted Participants
• Managers of mid- to large-size public drinking water utility systems in the ACF
• Managers of small scale community water systems in the ACF • Those with influence over water resource decisions in the
states of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia
Stakeholder Assessment-Current status of project
• Developing list of potential participants• Preparing internet survey• Preparing questions for follow-up interviews• Preparing for IRB approval from associated research
institutions
Concurrent assessment and product development
Develop a municipal water deficit index (MWDI) and prototype visualization tool for disseminating drought information
Develop downscaled evapotranspiration forecasts for water resource managers
Solicit feedback on format and presentation of forecasts and verification measures of these products as well as existing forecasts and monitoring products
Evaporation Forecasts using Forecast AnalogsCurrent Forecast
Similar Past Forecasts Past Observations
• NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 1-15 day• NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) 1-9 month
• Analog forecasts used to produce fine-resolution (32 km) forecasts using past observations
Fine ResolutionProbabilistic Forecast
Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities
Drought conditions result in increased demand and decreased supply.
Such fluctuation in climatic conditions may cause short-term failures in the municipal water system.
Focused on small- to mid-size communities relying on surface water systems
More than 75 such communities in the ACF Have similar systems
Reservoir(s), direct withdrawal from streams, withdrawal from stream for storage in reservoir, etc.
Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities
Currently available drought information (US Drought Monitor, Lawn and Garden Moisture Index, etc. are not specific to municipal water systems) High spatial variability of the rainfall in the
Southeast Supply and demand not considered Do not forecast
Proposed MWDI will Operate at a high spatial resolution Be web-based Be customizable by municipalities Considers supply and demand, and Forecast based on climate and management
practices
Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities
STELLA model using a system dynamics approach for development of the methodology
Auburn, AL and Griffin, GA as case municipalities
Web-based implementation when the methodology has been developed
Municipal Water Deficit Index for Small- to Mid-Size Communities
In the forecast mode, MWDI will include current water availability, forecasted inflows from precipitation and predicted demand for municipal supply.
MWDI calculation using the past dataset for validation with the lake levels/drought occurrences in the past.
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