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NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009
Jan Aben
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Selected topics
Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy CC policy and effects on AQ Effects of credit crisis Attainability of new PM2.5 standards
Ammonia deposition modelling Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros)
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Updated baseline (BGE)
Global Economy (GDP: + 2.9%/yr) Primes Energy Scenario (oil price: 60-70 $/barrel) CO2 price: 35 €/ton
Set and envisaged policy Limited additional climate policy after 2012
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Europe and world wide policies
Euro 5 for LDV Euro 6 for LDV (as of 2014) EURO VI for HDV Fuel Quality Directive for inland shipping and
mobile machinery Sea shipping measures (IMO)
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Specific Dutch policies
Set policies SO2 emission limits for E-production and refineries
Air washers for emissions from animal housings Air ticket tax
Envisaged policies Sharpened emission limits for medium combustion
plants PM emission limit for industry Road pricing
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Comparison of BGE with Current Policy
Emission target for industry ?
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
NOx emission in 2020 per sector
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Credit Crisis leads to significant reductions in final demand
Medium Term Outlook *)
February 2009 estimates
Sector 2008-2010 2008 2009 2010
Agriculture 5.1 -0.7 -9.7 -0.3
Food / bevarage industry
4.6 -0.8 -8.2 +0.2
Other industry 3.7 +0.7 -6.5 -0.9
Chemistry 5.6 -1.5 -10.5 +0.4
Metallurgic industry 5.2 0.0 -10.6 -1.2
Oil refineries 5.4 -1.3 -10.0 +0.4
Extraction of minerals 5.6 -1.2 -10.8 +0.1
Openbaar nut 1.5 +2.1 -1.3 -1.2
Construction 2.3 +9.2 -10.9 -11.4
Real Estate 1.3 +2.1 -0.7 -1.0
Trade 2.9 +1.3 -4.9 -1.2
Transportation and storage
4.3 -0.5 -7.3 +0.1
Communication 2.3 +1.7 -3.6 -1.3
Banking and Assurance 2.1 +1.9 -2.9 -1.4
Employment agencies and domestic services
1.4 +1.5 +0.7 +0.1
Other tertiary 3.1 +2.1 -6.1 -2.4
Quaternary 1.7 +1.2 +0.4 +0.4
Government 1.5 +1.4 +1.5 +0.6
Total 3.2 +1.4 -5.3 -1.3
*) CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), 2007
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Attainability of PM standards - Legislation
EU Air Quality Directive 2008: 4 standards for PM2.5
Exposure Reduction target (ERT) is the most stringent standard ERT depends on Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) in 2010
15% reduction if AEI in 2010 < 18 µg/m3
20% reduction if AEI in 2010 > 18 µg/m3
Uncertainty about ERT for NL because AEI for 2010 is near 18 µg/m3
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Attainability of PM standards – Results
Dutch emissions: BGE-baseline Foreign emissions: Amann (2008) AEI in 2010: 16.1 µg/m3 ERT of 15% is likely attainable,
attainment of ERT of 20% would require additional NL and EU measures beyond EP ambitions
Model bias: 6 - 7.5 µg/m3
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Ammonia deposition modelling
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Model improvement
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Change in NHx deposition
moles N per ha per yr
-30%
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Comparison of SRMs
SRMs calculated with Lotos-Euros For emission reductions (-15%) SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC
and PM2.5 in BEL, GER, FRA, GBR and NLD
Same base emissions as used by EMEP Effect on primary and secondary PM2.5
concentrations studied for BEL, DEU, FRA, GBR and NLD
SRMs compared to SRMs derived with EMEP model (v2.8 and v3.0)
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Same country mean values, but different contributions
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Comparison of EMEP with Lotos-Euros
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Thank you for your attention
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NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben
Contacts
Baseline: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl Synergy of CCP: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl Attainability of ERT: Jan.Matthijssen@pbl.nl Ammonia Modelling: Hans.vanJaarsveld@pbl.nl SRMs: Jelmer.Cnossen@pbl.nl Credit Crisis: Eric.Drissen@pbl.nl General: Jan.Aben@pbl.nl
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