NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9-10 2003 1 ITU Workshop “New generation Networks; what, when and how”...

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ITU Workshop““New generation Networks;New generation Networks;

what, when and how”what, when and how”Geneva 9-10 July 2003

““ICT and NGN: innovation for a better ICT and NGN: innovation for a better

quality of life”quality of life”

Claudio CarrelliDirector Eurescom

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Content

• Technology and Networks

• The social impact

• The “digital” world

• Standards and cooperation

• Final conclusions

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Three points to remember what went “good”

• The boom of “personal communication”

• The triumph of “networking”

• The new concept of “always on”

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And three to remember what went “wrong”

• The bubble “burst”

• The irrational fever of “merges and acquisitions”

• The excessive predominance of “finance” rather than focus on service innovation

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Some initial suggestions

• Do not try to “re-create the past”• Concentrate on the opportunities of

“mobile” “broadband” and “multimedia”• Target on innovation and flexibility• Identify and exploit new services for

“home environment” and “infomobility”• Grasp the opportunity of cooperation

even in a competitive environment

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Balancing technology and users needs

ICT for a better quality of life

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Laser technology

• Invented in the seventies

• Immediately named as a “solution looking for a problem”

• Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology

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The “Tron House”

• The first “intelligent house”

• Completed in in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan)• Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature”

and “computers”

• A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the “TRON Architecture”

• Dismantled in '94

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The “home” environment

• Will ICT improve our quality of life?

• Yes, it will, if we do not just concentrate on technology

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The relevance of “quality of life!”

• The first TV remote control in 1950

• Called “Lazy bones” and wireline

• ..Flashmatic, ..Spacecommand..1956

• Its percentage on price exceeded 30%

• How much would you save today to live without it?

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Two main comments on future developments and

key to success

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1.Local first, networked follows

• Stereo records and stereo broadcast

• Movies and TV

• Photo and telephoto

• DVD ... HDTV

• Multimedia terminal equipment, and then broadband communication

• Intelligent housewares ….networked home

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2.Simplicity will win

• The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one:

• Telephone over telegraph• IP and internet vs ISDN • SMS vs ISDN D-channel• i-mode vs WAP• Blue-tooth vs DECT• ….and what about Wi-Fi?

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Network evolution

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The basic pillars of telecom networks

• Switching systems (nodes)

• Transmission systems (links)

• Access network

• Terminal equipment

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The temple of telecommunications networks

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The “Easy Side” of the Problem

• Trunk network• High capacity• Flexible multiplexing• Variable bandwidth

• Customer premises equipment• Advanced multimedia technology• High bandwidth, bursty traffic requirements

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… And the More Challenging Issues

• Access network

Copper wire

optical fibre/coax

wireless technology

• Switching technology

synchronous/asynchronous

integrated/overlaid

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The temple of telecommunications

networks

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The mandatory school (I)

•PCM technology

•Digital transmission

•Digital hierarchy

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The mandatory school (II)

•SPC exchanges•Digital switching•Common channel signalling

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The mandatory school (III)

•Intelligent networks

•ISDN

•Mobile services

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And then,... what new life?

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The answer is not so easy!

• ..”total “digitalization”, telecom liberalization, internet, XDSL, DWDM on optical fibre, Wi-Fi, ultra-wide band, SW radio,…

• The impact of disruptive elements has radically altered the old approach mainly oriented to follow a predetermined path

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The evolving role of ...Telcos

• Voltage carriers (telegraph)

• Frequency carriers (telephony)

• Bit carriers (digital era)

• Information networking (middleware platforms)

• Domotics, infomobility and infotainement (new services at home and on the road)

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We live in a digital world

• All type of information, no matter if voice, data, text, music, video, image, or other, may be reduced to a “handful of bits”

• And these bits can be:

• processed

• transmitted or

• stored

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The big competition in the ICT game

• Storage capacity

• Processing power

• Transmission capacity

• Is it cheaper a stored bit, a processed bit or a travelling bit?

• How will its cost vary with time?

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A weaving of laws

• Moore’s law• Gilder’s law• Metcalf’s law• Telecosm’s law• Amdahl’s law• Conduits and content law• …..• And what new role for IP?

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What impact on network architecture?

• A well known rule of thumb:

• Transmission is cheap:

circuit switching

• Processing is cheap:

packet switching

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The Paradox of the “best network”

• Intelligent networks have been continuously upgraded and optimized for voice services

• But…today's optimization might be .. tomorrow's bottleneck

• Should a network be “intelligent” or “stupid”?• The best network just moves bits • But ….. the best network is the hardest one

to make money running

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What future: fix or mobile?

• The future will be more and more in the fixed network,…..

• …but the growing wireless access will give us the impression to be mobile

A provocative view

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WN

PWC

02 1log

C = Capacity [kbit/s]P = Signal PowerW = BandwidthN0 = Noise

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The myth of Broadband

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A provocative view

• Broadband already exists

• It is spread everywhere

• Consumers like it

• It is very cheap

• ….it is Television!!

• …. but it is mainly broadcast!

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The illusion of the value of the Mbyte

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What pricing strategy?

• Eyes and networks use different measuring sticks.

• It is important to grasp this difference if we want to make money.

• The cost of a service is related to the network complexity needed to deliver it,

• ...but its price must be related to the value human eyes put on it.

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Rethinking R&D

• R&D is a major driver for value

• The relevance to develop “options”

We must crack a lot of rock to find a diamond

• Collaborative R&D through networking will become critical, particularly due to lack of human and financial resources

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EURESCOMEURESCOM

A Virtual Company for Collaborative R&D

www.eurescom.de

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EURESCOM Providing Network Solutions

• Access Networks - Increasing the bandwidth

• In House Networks - Supporting the Customer

• Core Networks - Optimising the infrastructure

• New Aspects - new concepts (e.g. always on)

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The relevance of access

• The frontier of inequality will be no more between:

• rich and poor• capital and human resources

• cities and rural areas

• But,….…between who

• “has” and who “has not” access to the netUNO Dev. report

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Four messages

• Do not be dogmatic: deploy present technology and monitor its evolution!!

• Avoid the “network-centric” approach and concentrate on “human centredness”

• ICT technologies will enable a variety of applications for a better quality of life

• Be proactive on future developmentBroadband and mobile

revolutions are ready to take off..

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Thank you for your attention

Enjoy your Workshop!