News From The New Numbers Ten Trends For 2020 October 4, 2011 Washington, DC Brad Edmondson

News From The New NumbersTen Trends For 2020

October 4, 2011 Washington, DCBrad Edmondson

www.bradedmondson.com

April 1, 2010: 308, 745, 538

• Now 312.3 million, adding 7,200 a day• 27 million more than 2000 (<1% a year)• 75 million children (<18)• 115 million young adults (18-44)• 78 million baby boomers (45-64)• 40 million older adults (65+)• 53% of growth in TX, CA, FL, GA, NC, & AZ

The Cultural Pie, 2010

50.7

196.9

37.9

14.69.2

Population by racial and ethnic categories in millions, 2010

Hispanic"White"BlackAsianTwo races/other

1. Growth equals Hispanics

51%

17%

13%

13%

6%

Percentage of growth by racial and ethnic groups, 2000-10)

Hispanic"White"BlackAsianTwo races/ other

2. The rise of Latino citizens

• The next America• Mexican immigration, 2000-2010: 4.2 million• Mexican American births: 7.2 million• How to become “white”

3. Multiracial affluence

Asian NH White Native-born Hispanic

Other race Foreign-born Hispanic

Black

$69,500

$55,000

$44,000 $42,400

$37,200 $33,500

Median household income for racial & ethnic groups, 2009

How ethnic foods go mainstream(Lars Perner, University of Southern California)

4. Hard times for the youngPercent change in median household income by age of householder, adjusted for inflation, 1990-2010

1990-00 2000-10

-25%

0%

25%21%

-20%

15%

-11%

9%

-9%

8%

-14%

9%

0%

9%

12%12%

6%

15-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+2

5. Getting serious about saving

• Young people are:• --Abandoning marriage• --Driving less• --Doing it themselves• --Eating less meat• --Supercouponing

6. Childhood is changing

Percent of US children whose families are• Nonwhite or Hispanic: 43%• Unmarried households: 31%• Getting by or better: 54%• Able to save for college: 36%

Why boomers still ruleUS birth rate, 1909-2004. Source: NCHS Division of Vital Statistics

Boom, bust, and boomletUS population by single year of age, 2011: 0-18 gray (unnamed), 19-32 green (Millennial), 33-45 yellow (baby bust), 46-65 red (baby

boom), 66-80 blue (swing), 81-plus rose (WWII)

7. An aging populationProjected percent change in population by age groups, 2010-2020

Source: Census Bureau

Series10%

40%

4%6%

3%

35%

<25 25 to 44 45 to 64 65+

The Good YearsMedian household income by age of householder, 2010

Series1$0

$70,000

$28,300

$50,000

$61,600 $62,500

$56,600

$39,700

$25,300

15-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+

8. Boomers are buckling downPercent change in median household income by age of householder, 2000-2010

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

-20%

-11% -9%

-14%

0%

12%

6%

And the winners are…Median adjusted household income by sex and marital status, 1970-2007

1970 2007$0

$80,000

$45,785

$74,642

married men married women

unmarried men unmarried women

9. What AARP won’t tell you

• Retirement is not a nice word• Boomers are working longer• Those who can retire don’t want to• Convenience food for 60+ workers

10. Still the golden yearsPercent change in median household income by age of householder, 2000-2010

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

-20%

-11% -9%

-14%

0%

12%

6%

Still spending: aged 65 to 74Index of spending on selected products for householders aged 65 to 74, 2009

• Drugs (178%)

• Medical supplies (152%)

• Personal care (101%)

• Reading (140%) & stationery (118%)

• Housewares (130%)

• Housekeeping supplies (117%)

• Beef (109%) & seafood (113%)

• Pets, toys, & hobbies (112%)

• Fresh produce (104%)

Still spending: 75 & olderIndex of spending on selected products for householders aged 75+, 2009

• Drugs (162%)

• Medical supplies (133%)

• Personal care (77%)

• Reading (122%) & stationery (116%)

• Housekeeping supplies (89%)

• Fruits and vegetables (83%)

• Cereal and bakery (82%)

Uncharted TerritoryProjected population aged 75 and older, 2010-2050, in millions

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.00

60.00

18.80

22.50

33.30

44.30

48.40

Wisdom from elderly pioneers

• Kitchen workarounds• High tech memory aids• Low-tech bionic aids• Social media

Summary: youth• Hispanics & Asians are driving growth• Hispanic births outnumber immigration• Multicultural affluence & influence• Young adults are much poorer• Serious savings strategies• Most parents are pinched

Summary: Boomers & beyond

• Rapid growth in store among 65+• Boomers’ free spending days are over• The new royalty: dual-earner professionals• Boomers will retire much later• 65+ householders have escaped the recession• 75+ householders are a brand new market

Thank you!• Brad Edmondson

• www.bradedmondson.com• brade@lightlink.com

Summary