New Milford 2020 POCD Update...2018/12/20  · –2016 New Milford’s Revenue’s totaled $107.7...

New Milford 2020 POCD Update

Update of Conditions and Trends

12-20-18

Agenda

Land Use

Natural Resource Inventory - Open Space

Existing Land Use

Zoning

Residential Build Out

Demographics

Total Population by Year

Population by Age

School Enrollment Actuals and Projections

Housing

Economic Overview

Fiscal Overview

Land Use – Natural Resource Inventory

• Open Space: New Milford’s Open Space inventory continues to grow and now totals 7,414 acres, representing 19.5% of the 37,104 acres suitable for building.

– The State’s goal is to preserve 21% of land by 2023

– HVA has recently updated the Town’s Open Space Map as well as a map of Farm Parcels & Protected Farmland & Farmland Soils

• Natural Resource Inventory: The Committee should consider an expanded Natural Resource Inventory to also evaluate natural habitat areas including wetlands, watercourses, and watersheds; and large expanses of forests (core forests).

Source: New Milford Conservation Commission and HVA

Land Use – Existing Land Use Due to the Economic Downturn beginning in the late

2000’s we believe that the overall area of committed

land uses has not changed significantly since the 2010

POCD was prepared.

Land Uses

Residential

Industrial & Commercial

Open Space

Institutional & Community Facility ROW, Utility, Water Features, Transportation

Vacant or Uncommitted Land

Land Use - How New Milford is Zoned

Residential 85%

Commercial andIndustrial 8%

Other Zones 1%

No Zone (ROW,Water Feature,Other) 6%

Over the past 10 years there has been no significant change to the New Milford Zoning Map.

Land Use - Residential Build Out

• A Build-Out Analysis completed

in 2008 for the 2010 POCD found the

Town could accommodate 3,877 to

5,538 new dwelling units based on the

Zoning and land characteristics

at that time.

• Based on the limited changes

to the Zoning Map and Regulations,

and the slower rate of new dwelling

construction, we believe the 2008

analysis is still valid.

Demographics

• Demographic conditions and trends, concerning number, age, distribution and other population characteristics, provide important guidance for issues that must be addressed by planning.

• Population growth projections, while somewhat speculative, are essential to provide a framework for planning.

Population of New Milford Current Population estimate 27,501

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

ProjectedPopulation

Source: Connecticut Census State Data Center

• Deaths are exceeding births

• Few job opportunities for young people

Population by Income

2016 Per Capita Income New Milford $38,056 State $39,906

2016 Household Median Income New Milford $81,350 State $71,755

Percent of Population by Age

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1980 2000 2016 2030

Infants

School Age

Young Adults

Middle Adults

Mature Adults

65+

Source: Connecticut Census State Data Center

Median Age 2016 New Milford: 44 State: 41

Public School Enrollment Actuals and Projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Projected

Actual

Source: Milone & Macbroom and Board of Education

Housing • Housing characteristics provide strong insight

into a community. Like many towns in Connecticut, New Milford is primarily developed for residential use.

New Milford’s Housing

78% of New Milford Dwelling Units are Owner-Occupied

Age of Housing/# of Bedrooms

Housing Burden How much we pay for housing…

New Milford Renters and Home Owners spend a higher percentage of their income on housing than the state average.

Housing Burden

According to CERC, 56.9% of New Milford Renters are “Cost-Burdened” Median Rent $1,144/month

New Milford’s Economy

As recommended by the 2010 POCD, the Town is in the process of hiring a consultant to perform a Market Analysis to be used, in part, for the update of the POCD. – The Market Analysis Report should be ready in mid-

spring – The study will assess various areas of town including

the Downtown, Riverfront, Routes 7 and 202 Corridors, Northville and Gaylordsville

– The study will provide updated data, analysis and trend information relating to New Milford’s economic structure, including labor force and jobs

– The study will identify target economic opportunities

Numbers of Residents Working in New Milford and Danbury

Source: HVCEO, CERC and U.S. Census Bureau

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2014

New Milford

Danbury

Compared to 2010 POCD data, for New Milford all sectors lost jobs except “Accom&Food Services” increased by 50%

Total New Milford Jobs 1970-2016

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2016

Number of Jobs

Number of Jobs

Source: CTDOL and CERC

Top Employers in New Milford

• Town of New Milford (including BOE)

• Western Connecticut Health Network

• Kimberly Clark Corp.

• Litchfield Crossings

• Neeltran (was not in top 10 in 2010 – Neeltran’s expansion is a bright spot for manufacturing in New Milford!)

Fiscal Conditions

• A great deal can be learned about a town by reviewing its fiscal conditions: budget and taxes.

• Comparing these conditions to those of other towns, as well as to recent history, provides planning perspective.

Fiscal Overview

• Revenue:

– 2007 New Milford’s Revenue’s totaled $88 million

– 2016 New Milford’s Revenue’s totaled $107.7 million, an increase of 22% over 9 years.

• Mill Rate: A tax rate of 1.0 mills is equivalent to $1.00 in taxes per $1,000 of net assessed value.

– 2006 Mill Rate 21.34

– 2018 Mill Rate 28.17

– Mill Rate increase of 32% over 12 years

Source: Town of New Milford’s Basic Financial Statements, Supplementary Information and Independent Auditor’s report, dated June 30, 2017 and 2010 POCD.

Source: Town of New Milford’s Basic Financial Statements, Supplementary Information and Independent Auditor’s report, dated June 30, 2017 and 2010 POCD.

Source: Town of New Milford’s Basic Financial Statements, Supplementary Information and Independent Auditor’s report, dated June 30, 2017 and 2010 POCD.

Net Taxable Grand List 2006-2015 (Full Value Estimate of Taxable Property in Town)

2500000

2600000

2700000

2800000

2900000

3000000

3100000

Net Taxable Grand List

Net Taxable Grand List

Source: Town of New Milford’s Basic Financial Statements, June 30, 2017

Grand List Decreased 4.5 % from 2006-2015

New Milford Grand List Components October 1, 2015 Grand List Assessment

Grand List Components

Residential

Commercial/Industrial/Public Utility

Motor Vehicle

Personal Property

Other

Ten Largest Taxpayers 2017 Grand List

• Kimberly-Clark (Manufacturing) 3.4% • Eversource Energy (Utilities) 2.3% • Ub Litchfield, LLC (Retail) 0.5% • Litchfield Crossing (Retail) 0.4% • First Light (Utility) 0.47% • Aquarion Water Co. of CT (Utility) 0.33% • Home Depot USA Inc. (Retail) 0.30% • UB New Fairfield Plaza LLC (Retail) 0.19% • UB New Milford LLC (Retail) 0.18% • Housatonic RE II LLC (Manufacturing) 0.18%

Tax Levy Per Capita FY 2016

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000

Tax Levy Per Capita

Tax Levy Per Capita

Outreach Postcard Side 1

Outreach Postcard Side 2