New Mexico Population Estimates and Projections

New Mexico Population Estimates and Projections Robert Rhatigan Sr. Research Scientist Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico rhatigan@unm.edu (505) 277- 4034

University of New Mexico Geospatial and Population Studies

New Mexico Data User’s Conference November 19, 2015

New Mexico and the

2020 Census

New Mexico’s Vulnerability to Undercount

• 2000: Undercount in New Mexico was 1.94%

• 2010: 1.5% of US Hispanic Population and 4.9% of US American Indians living on reservations were undercounted

• 2020: An undercount of just 1% could cost NM $370,000,000 over ten years Sources: Price Waterhouse Coopers, Effect of Census 2000 Undercount on Federal Funding to States and

Selected Counties, 2002-2012. Aug 2001; US Census Bureau, 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Results; Brookings Institute, Federal Domestic Assistance Allocated on the Basis of Statistics Based on the Decennial Census, U.S. and States, FY2007

Census 2020 “The Most Innovative Operational Design Since 1790”

Four Key Innovation Areas 1. Reengineering Address Canvassing 2. Optimizing Self Response 3. Utilizing Administrative Records and

Third-Party Data 4. Reengineering Field Operations

Source: US Census Bureau. 2020 Census Operational Plan. Oct 2015

Population Estimates

Current Population = Population from Previous Census + Natural Increase (Births – Deaths) + Net Migration (In – Out)

Population Estimates Current Population = Population from Previous Census + Natural Increase (Births – Deaths) + Net Migration (In – Out)

Projections • Method Types

– Trend Extrapolation – Cohort-Component – Structural Models e.g.

Economic-Demographic

Projection Equation Projected Population = Current Population + Projected Natural Increase (Births – Deaths) + Projected Net Migration (In – Out)

Fertility

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Fact Sheet: The Decline in U.S. Fertility. 2012

Mortality

Rates are decreasing across all ages, sexes, races and classes except: “The mortality rate for whites 45 to 54 years old with no more than a high school education increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people from 1999 to 2014.” Source: Kolata, Gina “Death Rates Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans, Study Finds.” New York Times. 2, Nov, 2015

Zero Migration Scenario • New Mexico 2020 – 2,152,000

4.5% Ten Year Growth • New Mexico 2030 – 2,213,000

6.1% Twenty Year Growth • New Mexico 2040 – 2,230,000

8.29% Thirty Year Growth

High Migration Scenario • New Mexico 2020 – 2,225,000 8.05% Ten Year Growth • New Mexico 2030 – 2,470,000 19.9% Twenty Year Growth • New Mexico 2040 – 2,718,000 32% Thirty Year Growth

Half Migration Scenario • New Mexico 2020 – 2,185,000

6.2% Ten Year Growth • New Mexico 2030 – 2,334,000

13.4% Ten Year Growth • New Mexico 2040 – 2,449,000

18.9% Twenty Year Growth

New Mexico Share of the Census Bureau’s National Projections

0.65% of Nation (GPS Half Migration) • 2020 - 2,174,000 (2,185,000) • 2030 - 2,336,000 (2,334,000) • 2040 - 2,471,000 (2,449,000)

New Mexico is Greater than the Sum of its Data

Comments or Questions???

Robert Rhatigan Sr. Research Scientist Geospatial and Population Studies University of New Mexico (505) 277-4034 rhatigan@unm.edu

University of New Mexico Geospatial and Population Studies

New Mexico Data User’s Conference November 19, 2015