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New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014. Industrial Employment Collected via combination of Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment. Occupational Employment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014
There are two ways to analyze employment data, each having significant collection methods and importance
Industrial Employment
Collected via combination of Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment
Occupational Employment
Collected via the Occupational Employment Statistics survey (OES), a sample of employers used to develop staffing patterns across all industries
Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment PLUS the self-employed and unpaid family workers
STATE AND NATIONAL INDUSTRY
REVIEW
Employment in New Jersey is projected to grow at a steady 1.0% annual rate, but still lag that of the nation
10.1
14.1
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Total Nonfarm
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e ( %
)
Goods-Producing industries will continue to decline in New Jersey while remaining relatively flat for the nation
10.1
-8.4
14.1
-0.1
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e ( %
)
Service-Providing industries will again account for all growth in both the state and the nation
10.1
-8.4
12.814.1
-0.1
17.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e ( %
)
By 2014, nearly nine out of every ten jobs in NJ will be found within a Service-Providing industry
4,403,200
463,400
3,939,800
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing
Empl
oym
ent
For the nation, 85% of total employment will be found within Service-Providing industries
150,877,000
21,787,000
129,090,000
0
40,000,000
80,000,000
120,000,000
160,000,000
Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing
Empl
oym
ent
STATEWIDE MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTOR REVIEW
Modest growth in Construction will offset deep losses in Manufacturing among Goods-Producing industries
-42,300
-59,900
17,700
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e
Goods-Producing Manufacturing Construction
Widespread losses in manufacturing are led by these industries:
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
Total Manufacturing
Selected Components
Empl
oym
ent D
eclin
e
Computer & Electronic Mfg
Chemical Mfg
Machinery Mfg
Fabricated Metal Mfg
Paper Mfg
Although the Manufacturing industry is projected to continue its decline, the trend is slowing
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1984 1994 2004 2014
726,800
456,000
338,200
278,300
-4.6%Per year -2.9%
Per year-1.9%
Per year
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t
Service-providing industries will approach 4 million jobs by 2014 and continue to drive the labor market
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Education
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Government
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
2004 Employment Growth 2004-2014
The only service-providing industry projected to lose jobs through 2014 is the Information sector, projected to lose 6,400 jobs, a decline of -0.7% annually
Employment growth within Service-Providing industries will be dominated by these five sectors…
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Healthcare and SocialAssistance *Professional & BusinessServices *Trade, Transportation& UtilitiesLeisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Selected Components
Services-Providing
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e
* Healthcare and Professional & Business Services will each add more than 100,000 jobs from 2004 to 2014.
STATEWIDE OCCUPATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS
9.5% Employment Growth: 2004-2014
149,540 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014
More than Two-thirds of these Job Openings will be due to “Replacement” demand
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
Professional
Service
Sales
Office/Admin Support
Construction
Install/Repair
Production
Trans./Mat. Moving
Sales
Trans./Mat. Moving
Office/Admin Support
Construction
Install/Repair
Production
Service
PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE BY MAJOR
OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY
EMPLOYMENT SHARE IN 2014 BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL
GROUP
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
Occupations with higher educational and training requirements are projected to grow twice as fast as those with lower requirements
7.2
9.4
14.6
0 5 10 15 20
Total LowRequirements
TotalModerate
Requirements
Total HighRequirements
8.9
3.9
8.4
6.2
14.5
20.0
13.7
12.0
15.9
17.6
14.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Short-Term OTJ Training
Moderate-Term OTJ Training
Long-Term OTJ Training
Work exp. in a related Occ.
Postsecondary Voc. Training
Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Work exp. + Bachelor’s or higher
Master’s Degree
Doctoral Degree
First Professional Degree
Percent Growth, 2004-2014 Percent Growth, 2004-2014
NEW JERSEY REGIONAL AND COUNTY DATA
Northern Region
BERGEN
ESSEX
HUDSON
MORRIS
PASSAIC
UNION
- Generally, these counties have large employment but grow at a slower rate
- Combined, this region accounts for over 47% of all NJ employment
- Projected to have roughly 70,000 average annual job openings, more than double any other region
- Over 50% of State’s employment in Manufacturing located in Northern region
SUSSEX
WARREN
Bergen CountyHighest employment in the State, and only county to eclipse 500,000 jobs by 2014
Large (over 14% of State), but slow-growing Retail and Wholesale Trade sectors
~ Continental Airlines Arena
~ Giants Stadium
Healthcare and Social Assistance industry is and willremain the largest sector, adding more than 19,000 jobs
BERGEN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Bergen
State
Ranks #1 among NJ counties in most projected employment growth and average annual job openings
Professional and Service occupations make up over 70% of employment growth
Second to only Middlesex in employment in Production occupations, with 31,600 in 2004
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Hudson CountyLargest employment within Finance and Insurance industry sector among NJ counties…nearly 15% of all employment in Hudson County
Sharpest projected decline in Manufacturing among NJ counties…projected to lose 30.7% of Manufacturing jobs by 2014, a drop of 4,150 jobs
Trade, Transportation and Utilities account for one in every four jobs in Hudson
HUDSON COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Hudson
State
Nearly one in every four jobs found within Office and Administrative Support group, the highest concentration in the State
Only Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupations projected to outpace growth of State
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Morris CountyFastest projected annual growth rate in the Northern region at 1.2%, which ranks 4th in the State
Also ranks 4th in the State in total employment, with 298,350 in 2004
Well-rounded employment basefeatures eight major industries with employment of 20,000 or more
MORRIS COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Morris
State
All Major Occupational groups, except Professional, will grow faster than those of the State
Even still, projected growth in higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations combined will add almost 17,000 jobs, nearly 44% of all growth
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Central Region
HUNTERDON
MERCER
MIDDLESEX
SOMERSET
- Second largest region is projected to near 1,000,000 in employment by 2014, a growth rate of 10.2%
- In 2004, more than one in five jobs (21.7%) found in Central region
- Three of the four counties in this region will outpace the State’s growth of 10.1%
- Employment in Professional and Business Services will increase by 16.9% while adding 27,000 new jobs
Mercer County
~ New Jersey State House
Fastest growing county in Central region due to strong growth in Healthcare, Construction, and Administrative Support services
Second largest county in Central region, eighth largest inState, with employment of 226,750 in 2004
One in every four jobs found in Government sector
~ “Trenton Makes” Bridge
MERCER COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Mercer
State
Higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations will account for more than half of 27,000 new jobs
Construction occupations will increase by 16.7%, highest among NJ counties
By 2014, Registered Nurses will add 1,400 jobs to become the occupation with the largest employment in Mercer
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Middlesex County
~ Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway NJ
With employment of 414,450 in 2004, Middlesex is the largest county in the Central region, and second largest in the StateAmong Central region counties, Middlesex will experience the slowest growth at 8.6%, but still add the most jobs with 35,600
Largest Manufacturing sector among NJ counties with employment of 46,300 in 2004
MIDDLESEX COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Middlesex
State
Like Mercer, more than half of job growth to occur within higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupational groups
Most employment in Transportation and Material Moving occupations among NJ counties with 52,400 in 2004
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Coastal Region
MONMOUTH
OCEAN
ATLANTIC
CAPE MAY
- Fastest growing region will add nearly 70,000 by 2014, an increase of 11.2%
- 35.1% of State’s employment within Accommodation and Food Services industry in these four counties…nearly 16.0% of region’s total employment
- Another 14.6% of region’s total employment in Retail Trade industry…compared to 11.7% statewide
Monmouth County
~ Southside Johnny & “The Boss” at the Stone Pony
Monmouth is projected to grow by 9.4% and will add 25,000 jobs by 2014 to remain the largest county in the Coastal region
High concentration of employment in Retail Trade industry,nearly 15.0% in 2004
Second largest county in Construction employment with 15,350 in 2004, behind only Bergen
MONMOUTH COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Monmouth
State
Professional occupations will grow by 11.1%, second slowest among NJ counties
Service occupations will add 9,300 new jobs, or growth of 15.1%
Installation, Maintenance and Repair occupations will add 1,250 jobs, second most among NJ counties
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Ocean CountyWith total growth of 15.1%, Ocean is projected to be the fastest growing county in the Coastal region and second fastest in the State
Healthcare and Social Assistance is and will remain the county’s largest industry, accounting for one in every five jobs by 2014
Also, Healthcare industry will add 8,850 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.8%, and nearly 40% of all growth
OCEAN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Ocean
State
All major occupational groups are projected to outpace the growth rates of the State
Service occupations will increase by 23.6%, second most among NJ counties
Transportation and Material Moving occupations will increase by 13.2%, the highest among NJ counties
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Atlantic CountyAccommodation and Food Services industry (including Casinos) is county’s largest, over 37% of all employment in 2004
Healthcare and Social Assistance sector will add the most new jobs with 4,550 by 2014, an annual rate of 2.6%
Very small share of Manufacturing industry, less than 3% of total employment in Atlantic
~ Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa
~ Harrah’s Atlantic City
ATLANTIC COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Atlantic
State
Professional occupations will add 4,650 new jobs, or growth of 19.8%, highest among NJ counties
Service occupations will add another 5,650 jobs despite lowest growth rate among NJ counties (9.6%)
Together, they account for nearly 70% of all growth
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Southern Region
BURLINGTON
CAMDEN
GLOUCESTER
CUMBERLAND
SALEM
- Second fastest growing region is projected to add 66,500 jobs through 2014, an increase of 10.8%
- Employment share in Manufacturing ranks #1 among NJ’s four regions at 9.7% of total employment
- Healthcare and Social Assistance industry alone will add 21,250 new jobs, nearly a third of all growth
Camden County
~ Campbell’s Field w/ Ben Franklin Bridge
Largest county in Southern region, with employment of 219,900 in 2004, is projected to add 19,850 by 2014
Government, Healthcare and Social Assistance, and Retail Trade, Camden’s three largest industries, account
for 43% of total employment
Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will
add 7,700 new jobs, nearly double any other industry
CAMDEN COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Camden
State
All major occupational groups, except Production, will grow at a slower rate than the State
More than 70% of all growth through 2014 will occur within Professional and Service occupations
Registered Nurses, the #1 occupation in 2004, will add 1,650 new jobs, by far the most of any occupation
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Gloucester County
~ Rowan University Prof
Fastest growing county in Southern region, and third fastest in the State at 13.7%, will add 14,250 new jobs by 2014
One in every four new jobs will be found in Healthcare and Social Assistance, which will grow by 2.9% annually
Retail Trade will remain Gloucester’s largest private sector industry, adding 1,850 new jobs to reach employment of 18,650 by 2014
GLOUCESTER COUNTY VS. STATE Percent Growth by Occupational Category
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Gloucester
State
All major occupational groups will outpace the growth of the State
Office and Administrative Support occupations will grow by 6.9%, highest among NJ counties
Healthcare Practitioner and Healthcare Support occupations together will add 1,900 jobs, an increase of 33.0%
Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs.
Total
Professional Occs.
Service Occs.
Sales Occs.
Office/ Admin. Occs.
Construction Occs.
Install./Repair Occs.
Production Occs.
Transportation Occs.
Percent Growth, 2004-2014
Key Points Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will
continue to boom…fastest growing industry in 7 of 21 counties
Higher-paying Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupational groups are projected to account for nearly 45% of total growth
Employment in Manufacturing will continue to decline, but at a much slower rate than the past two decades
Questions or Comments?
CALL
609-777-3635-or-
Jason.Timian@dol.state.nj.us
Visit our Web site:
www.nj.gov/labor/lra
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