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Milano, 14 Dicembre 2011
Rodolfo Soncini Sessa, Enrico Weber,
Daniela Anghileri, Marco Micotti DEI – Politecnico di Milano
Negotiations for the joint regulation of
the Lake Maggiore – Lake Lugano system:
aims, procedure and state of advancement.
Attività 2.1.4. Individuazione di una politica di regolazione integrata e condivisa
The VerbaCe water system VERBAno (Maggiore) - CEresio (Lugano )
Diga della Miorina
Diga di Ponte Tresa
VerbaCe Project When:
2010-2012
Goal:
Identify an integrated and
shared policy for the
management of both lakes,
taking care of climate
change.
Start from previous studies:
- Progetto Verbano-INTERREG-II
- Progetto Ceresio
Take into account possible
synergies between the two
lakes
Diga della Miorina
Diga di Ponte Tresa
VERBANO-Interreg II When:
1996-1999
Goal:
Explore possible regulation policies for Verbano
Conclusions
Modify the lake outlet
Design a new regulation dam, such that regulation is possible even during floods
Miorina dam
Ponte Tresa dam
AIPO study
A preliminary design of a new dam.
Stage-discharge functions of the new dam
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation policies
Regulation policy: presently dis-joined regulation
hVer
rMio
hCer
rPT
V
C
rMio
Ponte Tresa release
Miorina release
Verbano Ceresio
Regulation policy: joined regulation
V
C
hVer
hCer
rMio
hVer
hCer
rPT
Ponte Tresa release
Miorina release
VerbaCe
V
C
Ponte Tresa release
Miorina release
VerbaCe
hVer
hCer
rPT
Regulation policy: joined regulation
hVer
hCer
rPT
rPT = mt(hCer)
Best
compromise
policy
Regulation policy: joined regulation
hVer
hCer
rPT
0,5
rPT = mt(hCer)
Regulation policy: joined regulation
rPT
hVer -0,5 1,5
rPT = f(hCer)
Range of hVer levels within which Ceresio regulation is
independent upon Verbano conditions so that the best
compromise policy can be adopted for Ceresio.
Regulation policy: joined regulation
rPT
hVer -0,5 1,5
rPT = mt(hCer)
rPT = m2t(hVer , hCer) rPT = m1
t(hVer , hCer)
?? ??
Once the best
compromise
has been
identified
Design joined
regulation
Pavia fears
What can we do?
A first-of-all negotiations
Stage-discharge functions of the new dam
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation space
To-day regulation
space
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation space
New dam regulation space Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation space
Low releases:
potentially dangerous for lake floods.
SUGGESTION disregard them! Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation space
Very high releases:
potentially dangerous for Pavia.
SUGGESTION disregard them!
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regulation space
Proposed and accepted
regulation space
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Max rilascio
attuale
Max rilascio
nuovo
sbarramento (settori aperti)
Min rilascio
attuale
Min rilascio
nuovo sbar.
(settori
chiusi e
ventole
chiuse fino a
1,50 m) Proposed and accepted
regulation space
Regulation space
?
How to choose the limit
flow?
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Max release rule
it must be decreasing with
increasing Po flow
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
ICT T
ools
yes
Final (political) decision
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing Alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keholders
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
no Mitigation, and compensation, Agreement?
PIP procedure
Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure
6. Comparison or negotiation
Problem formulation Setting the goal and identifying the
constraints
Designing alternatives/options
Selecting the best compromise alternative
How to choose?
The actions
present dam
new dam
dis-joined
joined
dis-joined
joined
Set a dmv Set a dam
dmv
Set a policy
Futu
re
clim
ate
Pre
sent
clim
ate
Set a
climate
Gerarchia di progetto
Dott. Massimiliano Foglia
Dipartimento del Territorio
Repubblica e Cantone Ticino
Ambiente Ceresio
Avifauna/nidificazione dello Svasso Maggiore
Percentuale di uova deposte Mortalità uova per decremento livello
Ambiente Ceresio
Criteria hierarchy
107 indicators all toghether
Setting the model
V
C
Villoresi
Antiche utenze
Pavia
Est-Sesia
Po
Ticino
Tresa
An example: the Ticino river
Isola S.
Antonio
Pavia
Piacenza
Porto della
Torre
The MIKE 11 model used in Fews by
Protezione Civile Lombardia:
It describes
the Ticino river from Porto
Torre to the Po junction;
the Po: from Isola S. Antonio
to Piacenza.
Too big a model for policy design: an
emulator has to be identify for that scope.
The original model will be used in the
evaluation phase.
Irri
gat
ion
def
icit
Floods
structural
normative
actions indicators
flooded area
...
max flood
14 days deficit
... regulatory (policy)
alternatives
A1
...
A2
...
An
Designing alternatives
Experts
J1
J2
Pareto
Optimisation
A
C B Ir
rig
atio
n d
efic
it
Floods
Dominated
alternative
Dominating
alternative Pareto frontier
0.15 0.07 0.01 0.85 0.16 downstr. envir.
hydropower
irrigation
upstr.envir.
lake flood
0.70 0.80 0.66 0.15 0.83
0.59 0.75 0.86 0.00 0.61
0.48 0.16 0.14 0.67 0.26
0.66 0.70 0.55 0.22 0.12
A54 … A4 A2 A1 A0
Alternatives
Ind
exes
Value matrix
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
ut
il
it
y
A0 A0 A0
Pareto Race
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
ut
il
it
y
A0 A0 A26
excessive loss in irrigation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
ut
il
it
y
A0 A36 A26
going on ...
reasonable alternative
A0 no actions 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
rPT
hVer -0,5 1,5
rPT = mt(hCer)
rPT = m2t(hVer , hCer) rPT = m1
t(hVer , hCer)
?? ??
Once the best
compromise
has been
identified
Design joined
regulation
Negotations for the whole system
Evaluation the impact of Climate Change
4
Regional climate scenario
Impact on hydrology
Climate model
Emission scenario
Local climate scenario
Impact on water
related interests Management policy
From PRUDENCE project [prudence.dmi.dk]
ES : A2
GCM : HadAM3H
RCM : RACMO
Quantile Method
HBV
Reservoir, channel, …
models
Hydropower revenue
Irrigation deficit
8 policies optimal
under historical climate
Evaluation the impact of Climate Change on the management indicators! Adaptive policy design
Model uncertainty
Uncertainty over 1961-1990
Uncertainty over 2071-2100
Future is not stationary
2071-2080
2081-2090
2091-2100
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
Thanks for attention
http://baobab.elet.polimi.it/verbace
Spazio di regolazione
New dam regulation space
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regola di massimo rilascio
qPo = 5000 m3/sec
caso 1
Regola di
massimo
rilascio
In sede di progetto esecutivo:
1) lo sbancamento e lo sbarramento dovranno essere
progettati in modo da poter riprodurre la scala di massimo
rilascio attuale per tutti i valori di portata considerati.
2) si dovrà anche definire la massima rapidità di manovra
dei settori per mantenere le onde prodotte a monte e valle
entro limiti accettabili.
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
Regola di massimo rilascio
qPo = 8000 m3/sec
caso 2
Max release
present dam
Max release
new dam
Min release
present dam
Min release
new dam (sector closed)
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