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Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
National Climate and Water Briefing
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Welcome
Mr Perry Wiles
Manager Climate Liaison Services
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Climate conditions and
outlook
Dr David Jones
Manager Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Climate
conditions and
outlook
• Recent conditions
• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers
• Rainfall and temperature outlooks
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
• Strong rainfall signal
• Temperatures
- Maximum 0.4 °C below average
- Minimum 0.4 °C above average
- Mean 0.02 °C above average
• No State or Territory in top or bottom ten
Maximum temperature deciles January 2015 Minimum temperature deciles January 2015
Temperatures
January 2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Summer–destined to
be above average
(again)
Summer to date temperature anomalies (to 23 February)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Te
mp
era
ture
an
om
ali
es
(°C
)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2014 2015
Australian daily mean temperature anomalies 2014–15
6°C
5°C
4°C
3°C
2°C
1°C
0°C
-1°C
-2°C
-3°C
-4°C
-5°C
-6°C
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Maximum temperature anomalies 8–19 February 2015
Photo: Department of Fire and Emergency Services (WA)
Meanwhile in
Western Australia…
Image: Jeff Schmaltz/NASA,LANCE/EOSDIS
6°C
5°C
4°C
3°C
2°C
1°C
0°C
-1°C
-2°C
-3°C
-4°C
-5°C
-6°C
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
January
• Australia: 15th highest
• Northern Territory: 4th highest
• South Australia: 8th highest
November–January
• Australia: 15th highest
• Northern Territory: 5th highest
Rainfall deciles January 2015 Rainfall deciles, November 2014 – January 2015
Rainfall
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
• January rains eased some short-term
deficiencies in parts of south
• Little impact on longer-term
deficiencies
• Rainfall from tropical cyclone Marcia
unlikely to impact
7 months
July 2014 – January 2015
28 months
October 2012 – January 2015
Rainfall deficiencies
6 months
July 2014 – December 2014
27 months
October 2012 – December 2014
Summer to date rainfall deciles (left)
and February to date (right) – Feb rain
unlikely to impact on long-term
deficiencies in Qld
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Tropical cyclones Lam and Marcia from satellite and radar
imagery February 2015
Tropical cyclones
Lam and Marcia
Percentage of normal February rainfall
(to 24 February 2015)
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
• January 2015 (+0.65°C), second
warmest globally behind 2007
• Severe drought:
- Western US and Texas (water
supply and wildfire concerns)
- Brazil (São Paulo at risk of running
out of water)
• Record snowfalls in northeast United
States, but record warmth (including
wildfires and lack of snow) in western
United States
January global temperature percentiles
International
Severe drought persists in western United States
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Climate
conditions and
outlook
• Recent conditions
• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers
• Rainfall and temperature outlooks
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Australian winter rainfall regime April–August rainfall deciles for past 10 years
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
190
0
190
4
190
8
191
2
191
6
192
0
192
4
192
8
193
2
193
6
194
0
194
4
194
8
195
2
195
6
196
0
196
4
196
8
197
2
197
6
198
0
198
4
198
8
199
2
199
6
200
0
200
4
200
8
201
2
Rain
fall
an
om
aly
(m
m)
Australia south coast rainfall anomalies (April–August)
Autumn–winter
drying pattern
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Atmospheric drivers
of autumn–winter
drying
Southern Australia located at confluence of many
large-scale climatic drivers
Strength of highs (subtropical ridge)
with global temperature
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Pre
ssure
anom
aly
(hP
a)
Tem
pera
ture
anom
aly
(°
C)
Annual subtropical ridge intensity
Global annual temperature
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
El Niño–Southern
Oscillation
Sea surface temperatures
NINO3.4 for January: +0.5 | Latest weekly value: +0.4
January 2015
Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures
November
December
January
February
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
NINO3.4 forecasts from eight international climate models
El Niño–Southern
Oscillation
Outlook
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Neutral conditions most likely into autumn
• Central tropical Pacific Ocean neutral, but some warmth
remains
• Southern Oscillation Index has weakened
• Models indicate El Niño potential by spring 2015
Chance of El Niño
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Climate
conditions and
outlook
• Recent conditions
• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers
• Rainfall and temperature outlooks
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Temperature outlook
March–May 2015
Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature
Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Rainfall outlook
March–May 2015
Chance of exceeding median rainfall
March–May
Chance of exceeding median rainfall
March
Chance of exceeding median rainfall
April
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
In summary
• ENSO currently neutral; models suggest chance of renewed heating in tropical Pacific Ocean leading into winter
• Tropical cyclone rainfall largely confined to coastal areas of Queensland and the Top End
• Neutral to wet outlook for autumn; increased chance of rain in March for southern Queensland
• A warm autumn, particularly in southeast
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Thank you
Questions?
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Hydrologic conditions
and outlook
Dr Paul Feikema,
Manager, Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Googong Reservoir, NSW (Julien Lerat) Florence Falls, NT (Paul Feikema) Coliban River at Tylden (Paul Feikema)
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Hydrologic conditions
and outlook
• Recent hydrologic conditions
• Water storages and groundwater
• Streamflow outlook
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Rainfall Actual evapotranspiration Evaporative efficiency
Recent conditions
January 2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
January 2014 January 2015
Evaporative
efficiency
• Water amount that evaporated relative to
amount that could have evaporated
• Most rainfall transpires or evaporates
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Change over one month Change over 12 months January 2015
Lower soil moisture
January 2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Observed streamflow
January 2015
• Low flows observed at 48 locations
• Near median flows at 33 locations
• High flows at 31 locations
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Observed streamflow
Observed streamflow terciles, 2011–2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Hydrologic conditions
and outlook
• Recent hydrologic conditions
• Water storages and groundwater
• Streamflow outlook
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Water storage levels
Change from last year
As at 20 February 2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Water storage levels
Change from last year
As at 20 February 2015
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Groundwater
Perth
Urban water supply, National Water Account 2014
• Large part of urban water supply
• Dependence being actively reduced
• Three main aquifers
• Gnangara Mound key extraction area
National Water Account 2014
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Groundwater
level trends
• Five year trend stable or falling
• Falling across Gnangara Mound
• Key resource in a drying climate
Trend in groundwater levels, 2009-2014
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Groundwater
level trends
Trend in groundwater levels, 2009-2014 Longer-term trend in groundwater levels
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Hydrologic conditions
and outlook
• Recent hydrologic conditions
• Water storages and groundwater
• Streamflow outlook
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Forecast skill
Most likely streamflow outcome
Seasonal streamflow
forecast
February–April 2015
• Low flows more likely at 45 locations
• Near median flows at 37 locations
• High flows forecast at 30 locations
• Generally low to moderate forecast skill
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
In summary
• Increase in lower soil moisture across northern Australia
• Observed streamflow returned to more median flows
• Increase in water storage levels along coastal areas in the north and east
• February–April forecast indicates a return to more median conditions
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Thank you
Questions?
Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015
Next briefing
26 March 2015
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