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Warsaw 2009
An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD
Katarzyna Budnik, Michał Greszta, Michał Hulej, Oskar Krzesicki,
Róża Lewińska, Karol Murawski, Michał Rot, Bartosz Rybaczyk
NATIONAL BANK OF POLANDWORKING PAPER
No. 64
Design:Oliwka s.c.
Layout and print:NBP Printshop
Published by:National Bank of Poland Education and Publishing Department 00-919 Warszawa, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street phone: +48 22 653 23 35, fax +48 22 653 13 21
© Copyright by the National Bank of Poland, 2009
http://www.nbp.pl
We are obliged to W. Charemza, T. Jędrzejowicz, G. Mierzejewska, M. Rubaszek, A. Wronka This paper represents the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the NBP.
WORKING PAPER No. 64 �
Contents
Abstract ............................................................................................................................7
Non-technical summary ....................................................................................................8
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................9
2 Data and seasonal adjustment .................................................................................... 11
2.1 Problems with aggregated series ...............................................................................................11
2.2 Iterative procedure ....................................................................................................................12
2.3 Joint seasonal adjustment method ............................................................................................12
2.4 Technical details of the algorithm .............................................................................................13
� Structure of the model ................................................................................................ 15
3.1 Production sector ......................................................................................................................15
3.2 Households sector ....................................................................................................................19
3.3 Labour supply .......................................................................................................................... 23
3.4 Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 26
3.5 External sector ......................................................................................................................... 28
3.6 Aggregate demand and supply ................................................................................................ 33
3.7 Costs and prices ....................................................................................................................... 35
3.8 Fiscal sector ............................................................................................................................. 38
3.9 The monetary authority and interest rates ................................................................................41
3.10 Long-term properties ............................................................................................................. 43
4 Impulse response analysis ............................................................................................45
4.1 Monetary impulse .................................................................................................................... 45
4.2 Exchange rate impulse ............................................................................................................. 45
4.3 Government consumption impulse .......................................................................................... 46
4.4 GDP slowdown in the euro area ............................................................................................... 46
4.5 Migration ................................................................................................................................. 47
4.6 Inflow of structural investment funds ...................................................................................... 48
4.7 Inflow of Common Agricultural Policy funds ............................................................................ 48
4.8 House price impulse ................................................................................................................. 49
5 Risks analysis ...............................................................................................................56
5.1 Procedure ................................................................................................................................. 56
5.2 Determining the uncertainty of exogenous variables ................................................................ 57
Contents
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d4
5.2.1 Shocked time series ........................................................................................................... 57
5.2.2 Data sources ...................................................................................................................... 58
5.2.3 Estimating/evaluating uncertainty of shocked exogenous variables ..................................... 58
5.3 Simulation of paths of exogenous variables ............................................................................. 60
5.3.1 Data generating process (DGP) ...........................................................................................61
5.3.2 DGP – Autocorrelations and cross-correlations ................................................................... 62
5.4 Illustrative results ..................................................................................................................... 63
6 Concluding remarks .....................................................................................................64
References ......................................................................................................................65
Appendix: NECMOD variables .........................................................................................66
Contents
WORKING PAPER No. 64 5
List of Figures
1. Brent oil price with market expectations from futures contracts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2. Historical uncertainty concerning crude oil price forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
�. Future uncertatinty concerning crude oil price forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
List of Figures
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d6
List of Tables
1. Constraints binding groups of variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2. Monetary impulse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
�. Exchange rate impulse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4. Government consumption impulse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5. GDP slowdown in the euro area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
6. Migration impulse response function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
7. Investment funds impulse responce function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5�
8. CAP funds impulse response function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
9. House prices impulse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
10. Exemplary oil price paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
11. Fan charts based on past forecast errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6�
12. Final fan charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6�
List of Tables
Abstract
WORKING PAPER No. 64 7
Abstract
Non-technical summary
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d8
Non-technical summary
Introduction
WORKING PAPER No. 64 9
1
1
Introduction
Introduction
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d10
1
Data and seasonal adjustment
WORKING PAPER No. 64 11
2
2
Data and seasonal adjustment
Data and seasonal adjustment
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d12
2
Data and seasonal adjustment
WORKING PAPER No. 64 1�
2
Data and seasonal adjustment
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d14
2
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 15
3
�
Structure of the model6,7
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d16
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 17
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d18
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 19
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d20
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 21
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d22
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 2�
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d24
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 25
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d26
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 27
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d28
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 29
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d�0
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 �1
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d�2
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 ��
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Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d�4
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 �5
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d�6
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 �7
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d�8
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 �9
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d40
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 41
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d42
3
Structure of the model
WORKING PAPER No. 64 4�
3
Structure of the model
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d44
3
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 45
4
4
Impulse response analysis16
Impulse response analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d46
4
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 47
4
Impulse response analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d48
4
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 49
4
Impulse response analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d50
4
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.05
.00
.05
.10
.15
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-3-2-10123
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-12
-8
-4
0
4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-.8-.6-.4-.2.0.2.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 51
4
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.05
.00
.05
.10
.15
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-3-2-10123
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-12
-8
-4
0
4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-.8-.6-.4-.2.0.2.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
-.06
-.04
-.02
.00
.02
.04
.06
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-.4
.0
.4
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.02
.00
.02
.04
.06
.08
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.05
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-.06
-.04
-.02
.00
.02
.04
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
-.3-.2-.1.0.1.2.3
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-.8-.6-.4-.2.0.2.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-.4-.3-.2-.1.0.1.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
Impulse response analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d52
4
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 5�
4
Impulse response analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d54
4
Impulse response analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 55
4
-.08
-.04
.00
.04
.08
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CPI inflation (pp)
CPI inflation
-1012345
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GDP (pp) Priv. cons. (pp)GFCF (pp) Inv. in housing sec. (pp)
GDP and its components (y-o-y)
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exports (pp) Imports (pp)
Trade volumes (y-o-y)
-.5-.4-.3-.2-.1.0.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REER (%) Equilibrium REER (%)
Exchange rates
-.08
-.04
.00
.04
.08
.12
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Real wages (pp) Emp. (pp)Unit labour cost (pp)
Labour market (1)
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Unemp. (pp) Particip. rate (pp)
Labour market (2)
-.4
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819
Current account balance (% of GDP) Govern. balance (% of GDP)
External and fiscal equilibrium
-.08
-.04
.00
.04
.08
.12
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
3M interest rate (pp)
Interest rate
Risk analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d56
5
5
Risk analysis
Risk analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 57
5
Risk analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d58
5
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3
US
D/b
bl.
Risk analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 59
5
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3
US
D/b
bl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3
USD
/bbl
.
"Centr" "Min" "Max"
Risk analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d60
5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
US
D/b
bl.
Risk analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 61
5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
US
D/b
bl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
USD
/bbl
.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
US
D/b
bl.
Risk analysis
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d62
5
Risk analysis
WORKING PAPER No. 64 6�
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06q1 06q3 07q1 07q3 08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q4
per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06q1 06q3 07q1 07q3 08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q4
per cent
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
06q1 06q3 07q1 07q3 08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q4
per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06q1 06q3 07q1 07q3 08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q4
per cent
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Concluding remarks
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d64
6
6
Concluding remarks
References
WORKING PAPER No. 64 65
References
Appendix: NECMOD variables
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d66
Appendix: NECMOD variables
Appendix: NECMOD variables
WORKING PAPER No. 64 67
Appendix: NECMOD variables
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d68
Appendix: NECMOD variables
WORKING PAPER No. 64 69
Appendix: NECMOD variables
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d70
Appendix: NECMOD variables
WORKING PAPER No. 64 71
Appendix: NECMOD variables
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d72
Appendix: NECMOD variables
WORKING PAPER No. 64 7�
Appendix: NECMOD variables
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d74
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