National Accounts Annual 2019 & Quarter 1 2020 - cso.ie · BOP Current Account - Results for...

National AccountsInternational AccountsAnnual 2019 & Quarter 1 2020

Media Briefing20 July 2020

National AccountsAnnual 2019NIE 2019

NIE 2019Year-on-Year

Growth Rates

GDP +5.6% (+5.5%)

GNP +3.4% (+3.3%)

Previous preliminary annual estimates in

brackets

Annual GDP & GNP Constant Prices 2009 - 2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

GDP GNP

GNP

GDP

NIE 2019 – Standard Annual Revisions

• Latest Revenue tax files

• Commodity flow estimates

• Structural Business Survey Data - CIP, ASI, Prodcom

• Insurance Statistics

Preliminary and Current Estimate of Real GDP Growth Rates

Preliminary and Current Estimate of Real GNP Growth Rates

-5

0

5

10

2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Q42019GDP NIE2019GDP

0

2

4

6

8

10

2016 2017 2018 2019Q42019GNP NIE2019GNP

%

Preliminary and Current Estimate of Annual GDP at Current Market Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

Q42019GDP NIE2019GDP

Modified GNI (GNI*) – 2019

GDP

€356.1bn

Net Factor Flows

- €81.7bn

GNP

€274.3bn

EU Taxes and

Subsidies

+ €1.1bn

GNI

€275.4bn

Adjustments

- €61.8bn

GNI*

€213.7bn

356

274

275

213.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

GDP GNP GNI GNI*

€b

illio

n

GDP, GNP and Modified GNI at Current Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

GDP GNP GNI*

GNP

GNI*

GDP

General Govt Debt to GDP/GNI* Ratios

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Debt / GDP Ratio Debt / GNI* Ratio

General Govt Balance as a percentage of GDP and GNI*

-3.6

-2.0

-0.7-0.3

0.10.4

-4.8

-3.2

-1.1

-0.5

0.2

0.7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Balance as a % of GDP Balance as a % of GNI*

2019 Annual GDP % Change in Constant Prices by Country

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

%

Annual Sector Growth by Share of GDP and GVA Growth Rate – 2019

Industry (excl. Construction)

+3.3%

Distribution, transport, hotels and restaurants+3.6%

Information andcommunication

+17.2%

Construction+7.5%

Public admin, educationand health

+3.7%

Professional,admin and support services +3.5%

Agriculture, forestry and fishing +28.4%

Arts, entertainment and other services +1.4%

Real estateactivities +1.3%

Financial and insurance activities +5.8%

Trends in Value Added by Sector (2012 =100)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Industry (excl.Construction)

Distribution, transport,hotels and restaurants

Information andcommunication

Professional, admin andsupport services

Public admin, educationand health

Construction

Annual Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate 2019

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

€b

illio

n

=

PCE+3.2% +

+ + +

+ + -

-

=

GDP

Govt.

+6.3%Investment

+74.8%Exports

+10.5%

Imports

+32.4%GDP

+5.6%

Trend in FDD, MFDD and Net Exports 2012 = 100 v's Total Exports and Imports

0

70

140

210

280

350

420

490

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD

Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Annual GDP Growth

Contribution of Modified Domestic Demand and Modified Net Exports to Annual GDP Growth

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Net Exports Final Domestic Demand

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Net Exports, adjusted for IP imports Modified Final Domestic Demand

Personal Consumption Expenditure2019/2018

• Annual PCE Total increased 3.2% in volume compared to 2018

• PCE Goods increased 2.9% with notable increases for cars and clothing & footwear

• PCE Services increased 3.4% with notable increases for foreign travel and professional services

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

PCE Annual Growth Rates 2019 by Item - constant prices

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

Dwellings

Roads

Other building and construction

Costs assoc. with transfer of land & buildings

Transport equipment

Agricultural machinery

Other machinery and equipment

Software

Exploration

Artistic originals

Research and development

Growth in Capital Formation by Investment Type 2019 – constant prices

Composition of Capital Formation 2007 – 2019 Constant prices - chain linked

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

B&C M&E Intangibles

Capital Formation 2019/2018

Total +74.8%

Buildings & Construction +8.0%

New dwellings +12.3%

All other B&C +7.2%

Remainder of Cap Formation +98.7%

Machinery and Equipment -1.2%

Aircraft +1.4%

Machinery and equipment would be -2.1% if aircraft had been unchanged

Intangibles + €67,747m

Excl. R&D service imports and trade in IP -29.7%

GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows 2010 – 2019

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

€b

illio

n

GDP NFF GNP

2019 Annual SummaryGDP +5.6% GNP +3.4%

Expenditure: Output:• PCE +3.2% • Industry +3.3%

• Government Expenditure +6.3% • Information & Communication +17.2%

• Investment +74.8% • Professional, Admin & Support + 3.5%

• Net Exports down €57,247m • Public Administration +3.7%

• Financial & Insurance Activities +5.8%

Final Domestic Demand +32.4% • Construction +7.5%

Modified Domestic Demand +3.3% • Dist, Trans, Hotels and Restaurants +3.6%

Net Factor Outflows €80,149m (€70,664m in 2018)

National AccountsQuarter 1 2020

Quarter 1 2020 – Constant Prices, Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted

Quarterly Changes

GDP +1.2%

GNP +0.1%

(Unchanged results compared with Q1

Provisional in June)

GDP

GNP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

€b

illio

n

GDP GNP

Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted

Industry (excl. Construction)

+9.2%

Construction-1.6% Distribution,

transport, hotels and restaurants

-3.0%

Information andcommunication

+8.5%

Financial and insurance activities +0.2%

Real estate activities+1.0%

Professional,admin and support

services-4.5%

Public admin, educationand health

+0.1%

Arts, entertainment and other services -6.6%

Agriculture, forestry and fishing -11.4%

Traditional and Modern Sectors - Industrial Production Index (seasonally adj.) Jan 2019 = 100

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140Ja

n 2

01

9

Feb

20

19

Mar

20

19

Ap

r 2

01

9

May

20

19

Jun

20

19

Jul 2

01

9

Au

g 2

01

9

Sep

20

19

Oct

20

19

No

v 2

01

9

Dec

20

19

Jan

20

20

Feb

20

20

Mar

20

20

Ap

r 2

02

0

May

20

20

Traditional Modern

PCE-3.1% +

+ + +

+ + -

-

=

GDP

Govt.

+0.5%Investment

+35.0%Exports

+0.1%

Imports

-4.5%GDP

+1.2%

Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

€b

illio

n

=

Trend in Domestic Demand and Net Exports 2017 Q1 = 100 v's total exports and imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

€billion

ind

ex

Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD

Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q4 2019

Total -4.5% (seasonally adjusted)

• Goods - 6.0%

• Services - 2.3%

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March 2020 vs March 2019

-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

Food, Bev & Tobacco

Pharma

All retail businesses

Fuel

Furniture

Dept Stores

Motor Trades

Clothes

Bars

March 2020 SA Vol Growth March 2019 SA Vol Growth

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March - May 2020

-100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0%

Motor trades

Department stores

Fuel

Pharma

Clothes

Furniture

Bars

All retail businesses

Food

May April March

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Department stores

All retail businesses

Retail sale of food

Retail sale of household equipment

Retail sale of electrical goods

Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear

Retail sale of books, newspapers, stationery and other goods

May April March

Retail Sales : Percentage of total sales on-line

Capital Formation Q1 2020 constant prices, seasonally adjusted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80€billion

B&C M&E Intangibles

Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q4 2019

Total +35.0% (seasonally adjusted)this quarter v’s last quarter

Building and construction -0.9%

Machinery and equipment *

Intangibles *

Machinery and equipment excl. aircraft leasing *

Intangibles excl. R&D service

imports and trade in IP *

GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows Q1 2017 – Q1 2020€

bill

ion

-40,000

-20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

GDP NFF GNP

Quarterly SummaryGDP +1.2% GNP +0.1%

Expenditure: Output:• PCE -3.1% • Industry (Excl. Construction) +9.2%

• Government Expenditure +0.5% • Information & Communication +8.5%

• Investment +35.0% • Financial & Insurance Activities +0.2%

• Net Exports up €5,547m • Professional, Admin & Support -4.5%

• Dist, Trans, Hotels and Rest. -3.0%

Final Domestic Demand -0.9% • Public Admin Educ, Health +0.1%

Mod. Final Domestic Demand -2.8% Net Factor Outflows €19,839m

(€20,190m in Q4 2019)

International Accounts

Revised Series Q12018 – Q12020

CA* and ReDomiciledPLC’s data for 2019

New Information & Revisions to International Accounts Series

New data series:

• Redomiciled PLC’s data 2019

• CA* data 2019

Main Data Revisions:

• Additional IP imports in Q4 2018 and Q2 2019

• Revised series on profit outflows in the Manufacturing sector

Information Note:

• Tourism in the National and International Accounts

Redomiciled PLC’s note updated

A Modified Current Account Balance for Ireland, CA*

A Modified Current Account Balance for Ireland, CA*

Revisions to Current Account Balance

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

€b

n

Current Account Balance, June 2020 Current Account Balance, July 2020

BOP Current Account - Results for Year 2019

€million

2017 2018 2019

Current Account surplus €1,457 €19,617 -€40,404

• Merchandise surplus €109,119 €109,132 €119,125

• Services balance -€43,491 -€16,344 -€75,331

• Net Income outflow -€64,169 -€73,170 -€84,198

Current Account * €10,662 €12,142 €16,495

Revised Series on Quarterly Profits Outflows

Explaining Overseas Tourism Expenditure Figures across CSO Publications

Number of overseas trips to Ireland and tourism and travel export figures from CSO publications.