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REFERENCE CODE GDHCER005-14 | PUBLICAT ION DATE MAY 2014
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Executive Summary
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease
in which the myelin sheaths around the axons of
the brain and spinal cord are damaged, leading to
demyelination and a wide range of signs and
symptoms (Compston and Coles, 2008). MS
affects 2.5 million people worldwide each year and
is the most debilitating neurological disease in
young adults (Fernandes de Abreu et al., 2009).
The estimated prevalence and incidence of MS
vary greatly between countries, within countries,
and by age and sex. The World Health
Organization (WHO) reports that the median
estimated global prevalence is 30 cases per
100,000 population and the estimated incidence is
approximately 2.5 cases per 100,000 population.
Globally, MS has an average age at onset of 30
years and occurs about twice as frequently in
women as in men (WHO, 2008).
Below mentioned figure presents the prevalent
cases of MS in the 10MM for 2013 and 2023.
10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013 and 2023
12,032
10,025
16,420
38,763
57,399
98,473
110,619
142,085
133,932
285,160
447,339
744,531
904,908
11,162
12,022
17,944
42,820
55,527
104,003
111,184
140,209
142,199
303,343
453,743
768,248
940,413
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Japan
India
China
Spain
Italy
UK
France
Germany
Canada
US
5EU
7MM
10MM
Prevalent Cases of MS (N)
Mar
kets
2023
2013
Source: GlobalData; Adssi et al., 2012; Cheng et al., 2007; Hirst et al., 2009; Itoh et al., 2003; Khadilkar et al., 2005; Millefiorini et al., 2010; Noonan et al., 2002; Otero-Romero et al., 2012; Singhal, 1985; USCB, 2013; Warren et al., 2008; WHO, 2008. 5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK; 7MM = 5EU, the US, and Japan; 10MM = 7MM, Canada, China and India
This report provides an overview of the risk factors
and comorbidities, and global and historical trends
of MS in the 10 major markets (10MM) (the US,
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan,
Canada, China and India). It includes a 10-year
epidemiological forecast of MS prevalent and
incident cases segmented by sex and age (in five-
year increments beginning at 20 years and ending
at ≥85 years) in the 10MM. GlobalData
epidemiologists used country-specific sources
published by peer-reviewed journals to estimate
the incidence and prevalence of MS in each of the
10MM. To provide a thorough description of the
MS patient population in each country, GlobalData
epidemiologists segmented MS incident and
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 3 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Executive Summary
prevalent cases by age and sex, both of which
strongly affect the epidemiology of MS. A major
strength of this analysis is that the forecast
methodology was consistent across the 10MM to
allow for a meaningful comparison of the patient
populations in each country.
In 2013, there were a total of 904,908 prevalent
cases of MS in the 10MM, and GlobalData
epidemiologists forecast that by 2023, the number
of prevalent cases will grow to 940,413 cases.
During the forecast period, India will have the
highest annual growth rate (AGR) at 1.99%, Spain
will have the second highest (AGR: 1.05%), and
China will have the third highest (AGR: 0.93%).
Germany, Italy and Japan will see a decrease in
the number of prevalent MS cases by 2023, with
Japan having the largest annual decrease (AGR:
negative 0.72%). By 2023, GlobalData
epidemiologists forecast that the US will have the
highest number of prevalent cases of MS (303,343
prevalent cases), followed by Canada (142,199
prevalent cases) and Germany (140,209 prevalent
cases).
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the seven
major markets (7MM) (the US, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) will see an annual
growth rate of 0.32% during the forecast period,
whereas the five EU markets (5EU) (France,
Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) will have an
annual growth rate that is about half that of the
total 7MM (AGR: 0.14%). Of the 5EU markets,
Spain will have the highest annual growth rate of
1.05% and Italy will have the highest annual
decrease of negative 0.33%.
The prevalence and incidence of MS vary greatly
by age, sex and geographical location. Regional
differences in MS prevalence and incidence could
be due to several factors including diagnostic
criteria used, availability of medical technology,
genetic and environmental risk factors, frequency
of comorbidities, and population age and sex
structure.
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 4 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6
1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 6
2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 7
2.1 Catalyst ............................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Related Reports .................................................................................................................. 7
2.3 Upcoming Reports .............................................................................................................. 7
3 Epidemiology .............................................................................................................................. 8
3.1 Disease Background ........................................................................................................... 8
3.2 Risk Factors ........................................................................................................................ 9
3.2.1 Family members of MS patients have a 1%–5% risk of developing MS ........................... 9
3.2.2 Women are twice as likely to develop MS, but men have a worse prognosis................... 9
3.2.3 Caucasians have a higher risk of MS than any other race/ethnicity ............................... 10
3.2.4 Protective effect of vitamin D on MS may relate to latitude and month of birth............... 10
3.2.5 Timing of environmental exposures affects MS risk ....................................................... 11
3.2.6 Exposure to smoking may increase MS risk and worsen prognosis ............................... 11
3.3 Comorbidities .................................................................................................................... 12
3.3.1 Autoimmune diseases may be comorbidities of MS....................................................... 12
3.3.2 Mental comorbidities are found in up to 60% of MS patients and may affect relapse rates ..................................................................................................................................... 12
3.4 Global Trends ................................................................................................................... 13
3.4.1 North America ............................................................................................................... 13
3.4.2 Europe .......................................................................................................................... 14
3.4.3 Asia ............................................................................................................................... 15
3.5 Forecast Methodology ....................................................................................................... 16
3.5.1 Sources Used................................................................................................................ 18
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 5 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
3.5.2 Sources Not Used ......................................................................................................... 24
3.5.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods ............................................................................. 24
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast of Multiple Sclerosis (2013–2023) ............................................. 34
3.6.1 Total Prevalent Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ................................................................... 34
3.6.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ....................................................... 36
3.6.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ....................................................... 38
3.6.4 Total Incident Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ..................................................................... 40
3.6.5 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ......................................................... 42
3.6.6 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of Multiple Sclerosis ......................................................... 44
3.6.7 Multiple Sclerosis Subtypes ........................................................................................... 46
3.7 Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 48
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight ................................................................................... 48
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis ............................................................................................. 49
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis ............................................................................................... 49
4 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 50
4.1 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 50
4.2 About the Authors ............................................................................................................. 57
4.2.1 Epidemiologists ............................................................................................................. 57
4.2.2 Reviewers ..................................................................................................................... 57
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology .................................................................................... 58
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare ............................................................................................ 58
4.3 About GlobalData .............................................................................................................. 59
4.4 About EpiCast ................................................................................................................... 59
4.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 60
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 6 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Sources of Prevalence and Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiology Forecast ........................... 17
Table 2: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, Men and Women, N, Select Years, 2013–2023 35
Table 3: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, By Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013 .............................. 37
Table 4: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, By Sex, N (Row %), 2013 ................................ 39
Table 5: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, Men and Women, N, Select Years, 2013–2023 .. 41
Table 6: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, By Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013 ................................. 43
Table 7: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, By Sex, N (Row %), 2013 ............................................................. 45
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, Men and Women, N, Select Years, 2013–2023 36
Figure 2: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, By Age, Men and Women, N, 2013 ............................................. 38
Figure 3: 10MM, Prevalent Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, By Sex, N, 2013............................................... 40
Figure 4: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, Ages ≥20 Years, Men and Women, N, Select Years, 2013–2023 .. 42
Figure 5: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, By Age, Men and Women, N, 2013 ............................................... 44
Figure 6: 10MM, Incident Cases of MS, By Sex, N, 2013 ............................................................................ 46
Figure 7: 10MM, MS Subtype Distributions, %*, 2013–2023 ....................................................................... 47
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 7 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Introduction
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
Multiple sclerosis (MS) affects 2.5 million people worldwide each year and is the most debilitating
neurological disease in young adults (Fernandes de Abreu et al., 2009).
GlobalData epidemiologists expect that the number of prevalent and incident cases of MS will
increase during the forecast period (2013–2023) in the 10 major markets (10MM) (the US,
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Canada, China and India).
In 2013, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there were a total of 904,908 prevalent
cases of MS in the 10MM, and by 2023 GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of
prevalent cases will grow to 940,413 prevalent cases.
This report provides an overview of the risk factors and comorbidities, and global and historical
trends of MS in the 10MM. It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of MS prevalent and
incident cases segmented by sex and age (in five-year increments beginning at 20 years and
ending at ≥85 years) in these markets.
To provide a thorough description of the MS patient population in each country, GlobalData
epidemiologists segmented MS cases by age and sex. Moreover, cases are segmented into
three common sub-types: relapsing-remitting MS, primary progressive MS, and secondary
progressive MS.
A major strength of this analysis is that the forecast methodology was consistent across the
10MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the patient populations in each country.
2.3 Upcoming Reports
GlobalData (2014) PharmaPoint: Multiple Sclerosis Therapeutics Global Market Forecast and
Market Analysis.
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 59 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Appendix
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
4.3 About GlobalData
GlobalData is a leading global provider of business intelligence in the Healthcare industry.
GlobalData provides its clients with up-to-date information and analysis on the latest developments
in drug research, disease analysis, and clinical research and development. Our integrated business
intelligence solutions include a range of interactive online databases, analytical tools, reports and
forecasts. Our analysis is supported by a 24/7 client support and analyst team.
GlobalData has offices in New York, San Francisco, Boston, London, India, Korea, Japan,
Singapore, and Australia.
4.4 About EpiCast
EpiCast is a series of premier epidemiology reports written and developed by Master’s-
and PhD-level epidemiologists.
EpiCast Reports are in-depth, high quality, transparent, and market-driven, providing expert
analysis of epidemiological trends and forecasting of patient populations for major markets.
Specifically, the reports identify disease trends over a 10-year forecast period in six to eight major
markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). Additional countries, such as
Canada, Brazil, China, and India, are covered in these reports if their markets are highly relevant.
Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 60 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Appendix
MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
4.5 Disclaimer
All Rights Reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any
form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the publisher, GlobalData.
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