MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MARCH 2014

Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

500-hPa

CONTENTS

*Tropics-ENSO [Neutral]

-MJO

*Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice)

*Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks

*Drought

*Selected Weather Events

*Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO)

I. The Tropics

LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

850-hPa Wind

H

RecentWesterlies, esp.

mid-month

850-hPa Wind

200-hPa Wind

H

HH

SST & Anomalies Subsurface

(6th)

SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region

NMME & inputs

CPC Consolidation

CFSv2

CPC/IRI

OLR & Anomalies

MJO (March 17, 31 Overviews)

- MJO remains active with E.P.* entering Indian Ocean; though indicators areincreasingly incoherent due to destructive interference with slowly evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions in western Pacific.

- Dynamical model MJO index forecasts diverge considerably for next 2 weeks.Some models weaken MJO as it interacts with the low frequency base state, whileothers indicate a more robust Indian Ocean MJO event.

- Statistical models generally favor continued MJO activity.

- MJO favors enhanced (suppressed) convection over western & central Indian Ocean(Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during period; also tending to oppose ongoing convection across the west-central Pacific associated with increasing ocean temperatures.

*E.P. = Enhanced Phase

Longitude

200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (5°S-5°N)

Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation

Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitationMJO

strengthens

Fasterpropagation

speeds – atmoKelvin waves?

Slowerpropagation

speeds

Littlepropagation?

Indo-Pacificwarm pool

region

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean

The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no additional eastward propagation of the MJO

signal.

II. The Extra-Tropics (and Sea Ice)

Northern Hemisphere

500-hPa SLP

Southern Hemisphere

500-hPa SLP

Global Temperatures

King Salmon (52F)March 1

(record high)*

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

Global Precipitation

ITCZ

E.P. MJO

S.P. MJO

E.P. = Enhanced

Phase

S.P. = Suppressed

Phase

Seattle record:9.44” (254%);

previous: 8.40” (1950)*

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

PrecipitationDepartures clearly related to orography (much more

so than PNP)

Featureless

Hawaiian Rainfall (March 2014)Dry start followed by trade wind strengthening

Total PNP (% of normal)

Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

1.9”

3.4”4.0”

3.8”

18.7”

54

~135

16092

M

+

+: 6.46” (March 8-9)Oahu Forest Nat’l Wildlife Refuge

Sea Ice

Arctic Antarctic

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

*Annual maximum extent on March 21

2014 Arctic max is 5th lowest in record (1978-2014)

*Annual minimum extent on February 23

2014 Antarctic min is 4th highest in record (1978-2014)

-2 -1

L

http://projects.kmi.open.ac.uk/role/moodle/pluginfile.php/712/mod_page/content/1/u116_2_f004i.jpg

Significant increase incoverage of multi-year ice

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

III. Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks

IV. Drought

March 4 April 1*

* Okay, so data cutoff extends 8 hours into April (12z April 1st) !

DROUGHT MONITOR

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

Monthly-Average Stream flow for the month of year

Soil Moisture Anomaly

CPC

NLDAS

V. Selected Weather Events

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Gillian_2014_track.png

Track of Cyclone Gillian

March 6-26, 201410-min winds: 125 mph1-min winds: 160 mph

Highest Gusts: 180 mphMinimum SLP: 937 hPa

JavaBali E. Timor

PNG

Gillian also affected searchfor missing

Malaysian Airlines Flight 370

X

ChristmasIsland

BorneoSumatra

Java

Gillian

“X”Approximate location of Christmas Island

(10.5S, 105.6E)X

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg/459px-Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg

Track of Cyclone Hellen

March 27-April 1, 201410-min winds: 145 mph1-min winds: 155 mph

Minimum SLP: 925-hPa

Madagascar

Mozambique

Tanzania

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hellen_2014_track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg/515px-Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg

Explosive Deepening of Cyclone Hellen over the Mozambique Channel

Symmetrical &Intense CDO

(150 miles)

Eye: 12 mi

Hazel Landslide/Oso Mudslide in Washington state March 22, 2014

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oso_landslide_%28WSP%29.pngWashington State Patrol

{1500 feet long, 4400 feet wide and 30-40 feet deep}

ACIS

VI. Outlooks for April & AMJ 2014 & MDO

APRIL TEMP APRIL PRCP

AMJ TEMP AMJ PRCP

THE END

??!

http://roflmouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/funny-animal-pictures-cute-duckling-scam.jpg