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Modeling Pacific Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Physical and Biological
ProcessesProcesses
Fei CHAIUniversity of Maine
U.S.A.
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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Sea Surface Height (SSH)
3 day averaged model output 1993 to 2006
2006
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-km Resolution
1993
First Mode of EOF Analysis of SSH
Model Satellite
4
Benthivorous Fish
Pelagic Invertebrate
Predators
Phytoplankton
Seabirds
Deposit-feedingBenthos
Suspension- feeding Benthos
DOCAmmonia
Fishing
Detritus
Micro-Zooplankton
Meso-Zooplankton
Nitrate+Nitrite
Nano-Phytoplankton
PlanktivorousFish
Piscivorous Fish
Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruitsMarine
Mammals
spawning
recruitment
Bacteria
How to Link?
3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling
Modular Ocean Model (MOM)Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5o to 2o), 1950 - 2003
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2o), 1950-2006
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km), 1990-2006
West Coast of the North America (NCOM)9 Km with physical data assimilation, 1998 - present
Gulf of Maine (POM)3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, 2002 - present
Ekman Pumping Anomalyand Modeled Chlorophyll Front (0.2 mg/m3) Anomaly
PDO Index andModeled PrimaryProduction Anomaly
Winter surface NO3 difference
(1979-90) - (1964-75)
Chai et al., 2003
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ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3)Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June (1997-2000)
Jan. April Aug. Dec.
1999
1997
1998
2000
Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling
NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS Chlorophyll
NRL West Coast NCOM with Model Chlorophyll
Monthly Sequence: June – August 2001
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Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
ModeledSST (oC)
SatelliteSST (oC)
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Surfare Chlorophyll Comparisonin situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS
Historical DataSeaWiFS1997-2006
10
Seasonal SST Comparison
Observed QuikScat NCEP COADS
Jan
Dec
An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy
Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adultsBased on conservation of energy (bioenergetics):
growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretionInput: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight)3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight
mesozooplankton Recruitment
diatom
Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO
There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.
Strong El NinoModerate El Nino
Temperature
diatommesozooplankt
on
Recruitment
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El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Annual Anchovy Catch
10 x 106 MT
GoMOOS - http://www.gomoos.org
GoalTo provide data and data products that serve public and private sector needs for:• solving practical problems• predicting events, and• further understanding natural systems in the Gulf of Maine
Xue et al., CRS, 2006
Modeled SurfaceChlorophyll, April 2002
SeaWiFSApril 2002
Comparing with Buoy B, E, IBlack: buoy (night time values)Red: modelGreen: SeaWiFS
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Challenges and Challenges and RecommendationsRecommendations
Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levels
Improving physical models, data assimilation
Spatial and temporal scales, Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadal
Surface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundaries
Cannot proceed by simply including more variables
Simplify the problem with focusing on target species
Incorporating structured population and IBM
Considering uncertainties, probabilistic simulations
Better communication
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