MINUTES OF THE 12th MEETING OF THE CEOS SPACE DATA...

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MINUTESOFTHE12thMEETINGOFTHECEOSSPACEDATACOORDINATIONGROUPFORGFOI(SDCG-12)GFOIEarlyWarningSession

Monday4thSeptember2017ESAESRIN,Frascati,Italy

AnSDCG-12sessiontodiscussthepotentialrequirementsofaGFOIEarlyWarningsystemwasheldontheMondaybeforethemainSDCG-12meeting.ThemorningsessionwasaGFOIEarlyWarning Task Force Meeting (summary report below), and the afternoon session was adiscussionofhowspaceagenciesmightrespondviaCEOSandSDCG.

Participants: Brian Killough (CEOS SEO/NASA), Stephen Ward (SDCG Sec), Rachael Petersen(WRI),MikaelaWeisse(WRI),StevenHosford(CNES),AnnaRitaPisani(ASI),YvesCrevier(CSA),GeorgeDyke (SDCGSec), JohannesReiche (Wageningen/GOFC-GOLD),HelmutStaudenrausch(DLR), Eugene (Gene) Fosnight (USGS), Frank Martin Seifert (ESA), Ake Rosenqvist (JAXA),MatthewSteventon(SDCGSec),MasatoHayashi(JAXA,GoToMeeting)

WelcomeandIntroductions

StephenWard(SDCGSec)welcomedeveryonetotheafternoonsessionandreviewedtheagendawhich looks at identifying opportunities for collaboration, common interests, and capacitiesarounddeforestationearlywarning.SDCG-Execcollaboratedonarelatedpaperearlierthisyear,andthismeetingisanopportunitytofollowupandrefineawayforward.

SummaryofGFOIEarlyWarningTaskForce–MondayMorningSession

BrianreviewedhisnotesfromtheGFOIEarlyWarningTaskForcemeetingwhichtookplaceinthemorning.

- ItwasnotedthattherearemanystakeholdersinvolvedandthereisaneedtounderstandthenumberofoptionsforEW.EffectiveuseofEWsystemsbygovernmentsisoftenabiggerissuethantechnology.Thereisalsoaroleforcivilsocietygroups(e.g.AmazonConservationteam,JaneGoodallInstitute)astheytendtouseEWproductstoputpressureoncountriestomakedecisions.

- GFOIseesaroleforCSO(CivilSocietyOrganizations)andtheneedfortheirinvolvement,andthiswillbeinpartaddressedviaa"UserNeedsAssessment".Thiswillrequireensuringallrelevantactorshavebeenconsulted.

- “Lessons Learned" from theGFWalerts effortswere shared, and parameters vary acrossresolutions(e.g.30m,250m),variousfrequencies(e.g.weekly,monthly)andlocations(notglobalandmostlypantropical).Usershavedifferentneeds,suchasadesireforalllandchange(Uganda)andadesiretominimizecommissionerrors(Peru).

- AsummaryofaPeruCaseStudywasgiven,notingthatalertsaregenerallyaccurate-someindividualpixelsarewrongbutclustersofpixelsareusuallycorrect.68%saidcloudcoverwasa"majorlimitation".Someusersnotedadesireforcountry"ownership"ofthesystemratherthandependingonglobalsystemsthatdependonexternalfunding.

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- The"CEOSConceptNote"foranEWsystemwaspresented,andtheoutputsfromtheGFOIEW Workshop in Jan 2015 in Brazil were reviewed with the meeting report here:https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByjVYQqIoebeS0NyajlSV1ZCcDA

- Theteamwentthroughtheagendaitemsunder"UserNeedsAssessment"andexpandedoneachbullet.Theseaddressedobjectives,scope,process,outcome,teamandtimeframe.

- Objectives:whatareweaimingtoachievefromthisassessment?o MoredefinedsetofrequirementsforEWsystem(s)thatcaninformfutureR&D

directionso Drivenbyuserneedsratherthantechpush–notonlyafocusontechnical

requirementso Stratifyassessmentbasedoncountrycapacities(e.g.Peru/Colombia,DRC,Indonesia

allhavedifferentneedsandknowledgeetc.)o Presentunifiedvoicetotheglobalcommunity(countries,donors,techpartnersand

R&Dorgs)o Determinationofendusergroups(e.g.govts,CSOs,media)

- Scope:what’sinandwhat’sout?o Politicalandinstitutionalconditionsforuptakeo Allforestchangesincluded.Considerallaspectsofearlywarningandthenstratify

intosystemso Bottomup(nottopdown)o Considerationforcountryownershipofproductsandproductgeneration(inclcost-

benefitanalysis)o InteresttobroadenusergroupsfromgovtstoalsoCSOs

- Process:howwillthestudybeundertaken?o StratifyassessmentintodifferentEWsystemcategorieswhichhavedifferentreqs

onresolution,latency,tempfrequencyetc.(eglawenforcement,fires,reporting,etc.)

o Willbedeterminedbypartnerresourceso Iterativeapproach.StartwithWRIongoingLessonsLearnedstudy.ThenMulti-

stakeholderforum.Improvedrequirements.Etc.o BuildonreqsexpressedinGFOI/SilvaCarbonworkshopinBrazil(Jan2015)o GLADsystemanentrypointforeverybodyo HowtocollecttheinfofortheMSF(calls,emails,surveys?)

- Outcome:whatwillbedeliveredandwhatpurposeswillitserve?o Userrequirementsdocumento Guidelinesandrecommendations(stratified).SimilartoolsuchasREDDcompass

(decisiontreestructure)o Pilotstudieso ListofR&Dtopics

- Team:whowillbeinvolved?o GFOIOffice(co-lead)o WRI(LeadcoordinatorofUNA)&UMDo CEOS

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o GOFC-GOLD/WURo WRIcollaboratingcountries(PER,DRC,IND,COL)o GFOIcollaboratingorganisationsandcountrieso SilvaCarbono FAOo WB?

- Timeframe:start,interimanddeliverydates?

Akeaddedsomecommentsonuserneedsassessment,notingthatheperformedaverybroaduserneedsassessment,whichwasrequestedbytheGFOIOffice.

Rachaelnotedthatthemulti-stakeholderforumisplannedasanopportunitytostartgatheringinitialuserrequirements,andWRIhasstartedtodraftapaperonthetopic.

Stephen noted the Vietnam Data Cube work supported by CSIRO, with FIPI planningdeforestationapplications,andavarietyofdatasetsavailable.

Theneedforuserrequirementwasagreed,aswellasguidancedocumentation,andhowthismightinteractwiththeGFOIR&Dcomponent.ItwassuggestedthatWRIpaperbeusedasthebasisforthestakeholdermeeting,usethemeetingtorefinethepaper,andthiscouldbedoneinparallelwithaGFOIefforttodevelopsomeguidancematerials.

SDCG-12-1 TomHarveytoaddthelinktothe2015GFOIEWWorkshopreporttotheGFOIwebsite. September2017

JJ-FASTOverview

MasatoHayashi(JAXA,GoToMeeting)presentedasummaryonJJ-FAST,acollaborationbetweenJICAandJAXAfordetecting illegaldeforestation. JJ-FASTdetectsdeforestationgreaterthan5hectares by comparing twoALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images, and is currently targeting 80 countriesproviding updates every 1.5 months. JJ-FAST covers almost all tropical forests, and the SARdatasetisabletoobservethroughcloudcover.TheJJ-FASTwebinterfacepresentswarnings,andallows users to uncover extra information, including estimated deforestation areas. 83.3%accuracy has been shown by field validation, and a number of enhancements are planned,particularlyaroundissuesrelatedtosteepslopes,smallareas,andseasonalchanges,usingmoremulti-temporalimages.Johannesaskedwhointerpretsthepolygonsforinclusion/exclusion,andHayashiconfirmedthisisdonebyJAXAstaff.Rachaelnotedthiswillbeachallengetomaintainqualitycontrolwhenscalinguptotheplanned77countries.

INPEDETER

AkeRosenqvist(onbehalfofINPE)presentedonBrazil’sDETERsystem.HenotedthatPRODESisbeing expanded to cover greater region, and that DETER is the detection system, whereasPRODESmeasuresthefinalresult(forest/non-forest).ThesystemisdrivenbyMODISdata,visualinterpretation,andtheresultsarethenpresentedtoIBAMA(lawenforcement).DETERresultsalsoavailableonlinetothepublic.RecentlytheyhaveintegratedAWiFSandCBERS-4data,andtryingtointegratethevarioussystems(DETER,DETEX,DEGRAD,etc.)Akestressedthatthisisatrulyoperationalsystem,andprovidesalotofgreatlessons.HenotedthatinthepastaJAXA-

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IBAMAINDICARsystemhadbeendevelopedwhichusedALOSScanSARdatatofillgapsinrainyseasonduetoclouds.

GFWandWRIEarlyWarningActivities

RachaelpresentedanoverviewofWRI’searlywarningactivities,notingthatWRIhasfoundthatgovernanceissues,i.e.unclearlandtenure,lackoffunding,etc.,areoneofthebiggesthurdlestouptakeofearlywarningsystems.ShenotedthatexpandingGLADalerts(currentlycovering16countries in the Amazon, Central Africa, and SE Asia) to more countries is restricted bycomputationalresources,thoughUMDareworkingtoexpandtheirsystemtocovermoreareasleveragingGoogleEarthEngine.

RachelconfirmedthatthatFredStolleandWRIremainstillveryinterestedinsupportintegratingSARdatatofillcloudgaps.PotentialdatastreamsSDCG-GFOIcouldhelpsupportwithincludeALOS-2(9timesayear)andNovaSAR(onceitisavailable),thoughSentinel1likelyremainsthebestoptionforlarge-scalemonitoringsinceitisfreeandopen.

MikaelanotedthattherehavebeenreportsinBrazilthatillegalloggersarenowstartingadapttheirbehaviours todeforestduringcloudyperiods toavoiddetectionbyDETER.Radardata’sabilitytoovercomecloudcoverlimitationsmayhelpgreatlyinthiscase.

GLADdoesn't have any image filtering yet to eliminate single pixels, and the accuracy tunedtowardfalsenegatives.Infuture,theyplantoallowuserstoadjusttheiraccuracy,asusersmayhavediversepreferencesforsensitivitydependingonhowtheydeploytheinformation.

Funding forGLAD coming throughbilateral donations, and they are hoping to reach a lowerfutureoperatingcostbymigrationtoGEE.Yvesaskedhowcountriescanbeassuredthesystemwillexistinthefuture,iffundingisnotsecure.Thisisacommonquestionfromusers,whowanttoknowthesystemwillbesustainedbeforebuildingtheirownworkflowsontopofit.TheywouldconsiderrunningGLADonaDataCubeinfuture,butthequestionsofoperationalcostsaswellassourcecode/algorithmswouldhavetobeaddressed.

It was noted that integration of Sentinel-2 imagery is also a future goal to increase revisitfrequencyandresolution.

GLAD isbeingusedwidely inPeru (e.g. government, civil society), and theyare findinggoodtimeliness and coverage. There are technical limitations around cloud cover, and separatingnaturalandanthropogenicchanges.Howeveroverall,theyhavefoundthegovernanceandlegallimitationsaregreaterthantechnicallimitations,e.g.lackofresourcestofollowupandprosecutethoseresponsible.

OversellingtheutilityofEOisaconcern,particularlywhenitcomestolegalcases.

GOFC-GOLDheritageinEWactivities

Johannesprovidedanupdateon theworkGOFC-GOLD is doing indeforestationassessment,notingthereisatradeoffbetweensystemcomplexityandcapability,wheregenerallyspeakingthemorecomplex,thelessimplementationislikely.

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GOFC-GOLD has been developing and implementing probabilisticmethods for EarlyWarningdetectionusingSentinel-1dual-pol.PreliminaryresultsinSumatradetectforestchangesasmanyas54daysearlierthanGLADalerts.

Therewas adiscussion aroundBFAST, and itwasnoted that itwasneverdesigned for earlywarning.

Overall,theambitionfortheGFOIAlertactivityistomovetargetedR&Dintooperationalpracticeviathesynthesisofvariousdataandapproaches.Theprocessshouldusecasedrivenanalysisofuncertaintiestowardspecificsolutions.

Johannesnotedtheimportanceoflisteningtotheuseronthetradeoffbetweentimelinessandaccuracy,andthatintheirexperiencethereisabroadrangeofuserrequirements.Forexample,someuserspreferveryunreliablyestimates(10%accuracy)providedquickly(withindays),whileothersrequirehighreliabilityandattribution.

SDCG-12-2 SDCGEXECtofollowuptheideaofaJJ-FASTandGLADcomparisonaspartofGFOIALERT SDCG-13

AgencyHeritage&InterestinaGFOIEarlyWarningCollaboration

HelmutnotedthatDLRisreadytocontributedata(e.g.TSX,TDX),eitherthroughtheAOsystemorsomeshortcut.Links toPlanet inBerlinmayalsobepossible.DLR is readytosupport,butwouldliketoseejointactionfromallSDCGagencies.AkenotedthatRapidEye/fineresolutionopticaldatawouldbeveryuseful, inparticular if targetedacquisitions couldbeplanned inasimilarwaytodisasteractivities.

GenesuggestedafollowupwithJeffMasektogetanupdateonNASAactivities.

YvesnotedthatCSAdemonstratedcanopychangedetectionwithtimeseriesofRADARSAT-2in2009,andthismaybeofinterest.Henotedthatsince2010,coherentRS-2acquisitionshavebeenongoingovercertainlocations.Thiscomprisesthousandsofimagesthatcouldbecontributedfordeforestationmonitoring.HenotedCSAwouldliketocontribute,inparticulartoinitiativeswherevalidationactivitieswillbedone.He iswillingtodothenecessarynegotiationstogetdatatoinitiativesthatcanprovetheutilityofC-bandfordeforestationmonitoring.

Anna-RitanotatedthatCOSMO-SkyMEDdatacanbeprovidedforresearchprojects,andsheisgatheringinformationnow,totakebacktoASIandseewhatcontributionsarepossible.

StevennotedheisunabletocommitonbehalfofCNES,butthathiscolleaguestherewouldlikelybewillingtoputresourcesintoanyeffort(e.g.Pleiades).

Overall, there was strong support from the agencies, while all agreed thatmost details areneededbeforeconcretecontributionscanbedetermined.

DataCubeSupporttoGFOIEarlyWarningObjectives

BrianprovidedasummaryofDataCubesupporttoEarlyWarningobjectives,notingthattheyareseeking toworkwith Vietnam to demonstrate a deforestation alert tool that utilizes diversemoderate resolutiondatasetsandaDataCube infrastructure.Healso suggested lookingataspecificareaflaggedoverColombia,tobringtogetherdatafromJAXA,CSA,DLR,andothers.The

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objective could be to take some of the work that GOFC-GOLD is doing (e.g. what Johannespresented) on the Data Cube to demonstrate progress while waiting for GFOI user needsassessmenttobedone.

ClosingDiscussionandNextStepsTherewasadiscussionaroundthemainpointsagreed,abasicschedule,potentialroles,geography,anddatasupply.

BroadpointsofagreementontheelementsthatmightcompriseaGFOIALERTactivity:

- aUserNeedsAssessmentbasedonlessonslearned(WRIPerupilot),GFOI/SilvaCarbonEWworkshopinJan.2015,dialoguewithcountries,phoneinterviews,questionnaire,…)

- amulti-stakeholderforumevent(likely inDC-relatedtoGFWPartnershipmeetinginFeb2018)tosolicitinputonassessment

- subsequentGFOIguidanceonEarlyWarningforcountries(includingmaybeadecision-treeeffortlikeREDDcompass)

- parallelR&DworktoaddresssomeofthetechnicalchallengesaroundEW- relatedpilotactivities

Schedule

TheUserNeedsAssessment(UNA)comesfirst.AndshouldruntoaboutJunenextyear,withpossible“launch”atOsloREDDExchange.ItcanhavetheexistingWRIworkasthenucleus(withPeru,DRCandIndonesia).SuggestedweaddfromGFOIVietnamandColombiatothat.WRIismotivated to progress this and willing to adapt their existing efforts to suit the GFOIgeometry.Co-locatingtheproposedeventwiththeGFWconferenceinFebinWashingtonDCwas discussed, but following themeeting thiswas found to be unsuitable due to scope andplanningchangesontheGFWside.Theyhaveflexibilitytoincludemaybeupto2daysontheUserNeedsassessmentaroundthecoreagenda.Userneedsassessmentwillincludeusecasesfor early warning, technical requirements for EW, but also political andinstitutionalconsiderationsforuptakeofEW.WeshouldestablishearlydesiredattendancefortheUNAevent.

TheGuidanceeffortwouldstartafterconclusionoftheUNA.Saymid-2018.TheR&Dstudiesandpilotscantentativelystartonsomefundamental issuesnow(likecombiningradarandopticaland impactonFalseAlarmRatesbasedon initialuser feedback)butwouldbedirectedwhenpossiblebytheneedsassessmentandhavethedemosfocusonspecificissueshighlightedbytheUNA.

PotentialRoles

WRIwillingandabletoleadtheassessmentandforumeventpendingresourceavailability.WRIisthenaturalleadforthisworkandwillingtodoso.Theymayseeksomeadditionalresourcestoachieve this. Agreed that the Capacity Building component should perhaps co-lead the userassessment.TheGuidancetaskrequiresleadershipfromtheMGDcomponentideally.

CEOS(andagencies)andGOFC-GOLDwillingtoprogresstheR&Dstudiesandpilots.WRIiskeentobetheuserpullandtoexploreadditionofradardatastreamstotheirEWcapabilities.Early

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workcouldfocusoncomparingGLADresultswiththeJAXA/JICAJJ-FASTresultsasanobviousfirststep.

Geography

AsnotedWRIearlyalertworkiswithDRC,Indonesiaand(especially)Peru.SDCGiskeentouseits existing pilots as platforms for the technical studies and demos. Vietnam and Colombiawerediscussedandagreedaspossibilities.

DataSupply

Therewerestrongstatementsofsupportfromarangeofspaceagenciesforsupplyofdatainsupportof the technical studies. IncludingESA,USGS,DLR,CSA,CNES,andASI.This includedtheSentinels,Landsat,Radarsat,TerraSAR,Planet,COSMOSkymedandPleiades.AlsoScanSARdatafromALOSforVietnam.AndhopefulofS-BanddatafromUK’sNovaSAR,whichneedsstilltobelaunched.AgreedthatacoordinateddatasupplyandR&DeffortshouldbeorchestratedacrossCEOSagenciesformaximumfocusandbenefit.

DiscussionandActions

Abriefdiscussionfollowed,andactionswereagreed.

- The UNA should be carried out byWRI, in coordination with the GFOI capacity buildingcomponent.WRIshouldalsopushGFOIOfficeforresources.

- WRInotedtheymaybeabletoincludeGFOIEarlyWarningtopicsfortheirnextuserforum(February2018),thoughafterfurtherdiscussionfollowingthemeetingthiswasfoundtonotbepossibleduetoscopeandplanningchangesintheiruserforum.Thismeetingisachanceto identify opportunities for collaboration that will make the most of limited resourcesavailable,andtocometogetherunderafewkeyuserpullprojects.

- ThereisaneedtoengagetheGFOIMGDgrouptosignupfortheguidanceonearlywarning,ideallywithasimilarapproachaswhatwastakeforREDDCompass.

- ItwasagreedthatthereareseveraltasksthatCEOScancarryoutinparallelwithUNA(e.g.Brian’sDataCubeexploratoryactivities).TheCEOSnicheisreallyfocusedoncountry-levelsupport.

- FrankMartinnotedhecanfollow-uponfurthercontributionstoGFOIR&D,e.g.aroundearlywarning,inter-comparison,inclusionofSARinoperationalsystems.

- JohannesisconfidentthathisGOFC-GOLDmethodsarematureenoughtoconsiderscalingup,andAkenotedthissoundslikeagoodpilot.

- ThefirsttwobestpossibilitiesarelikelyaJJ-FAST-GLADcomparison,andworkingontheGOFC-GOLDapproaches.

- Thereisgoodenthusiasmfromdataproviderstosupportthesedevelopmentactivities.

SDCG-12-3

WRItoconfirmthebroadenedscopeoftheEarlyWarningUserNeedsAssessment(EW-UNA)basedondiscussionswithCEOSagenciesatSDCG-12

RevisitatGFOIPlenary/SDCG-

13AfterfurtherdiscussionwithGFOIleads,a

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consultantcoordinatedby

GFOIwillleadtheUserNeeds

Assessment.Tomiscurrently

workingontheTORwithsupportfromRachael

SDCG-12-4

WRItoconfirmthedetailsoftheirFebruary2018userforum(i.e.location,dates),aswellaspossibleagendatimefortheEW-UNA

COMPLETEAfterfurtherdiscussion,theGFWmeetinginFebruarywillnotbeagoodfit,bothdueto

timingandtoarestructuringof

theGFWmeeting.Thetimingofthe

forumisstillTBD.Theforum

committeewilldevelopamoredetailedscopefortheforumbytheendoftheyear

SDCG-12-5FrankMartintoworkwiththeGFOILeadstoensureappropriateGFOIrepresentationatWRI’suserforum,andanysessionsaroundEarlyWarning

October2017

SDCG-12-6

FrankMartintoraisethepossibilityofGFOIR&Dcomponentsupport(e.g.GOFC-GOLD)totheoperationalisationofEarlyWarningapproachesbeingstudied,e.g.aroundearlywarning,inter-comparison

SDCG-13

SDCG-12-7

AketoadvisetheMGDUserAdvisoryGroupoftheon-goingdiscussionsaroundEarlyWarning,andreportbackonanyreactions,interest,andpotentialnextsteps

SDCG-13