Michael T. Frow Susan L. Kerr - University of Oklahoma€¦ · Wine Grape Solids To Waste Pressed...

Michael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. FrowMichael T. Frow

Susan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. KerrSusan L. Kerr

ChEChEChEChEChEChEChEChE 42734273427342734273427342734273Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel Dr. Miguel BagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewiczBagajewicz

OverviewOverview• Problem Definition

• Process Overview

• Consumer Satisfaction and Preference• Application of Model

• Business Model

• Conclusions

• Recommendations

Problem DefinitionProblem DefinitionHistory of Wine

� Predates recorded history� Fables of medicinal uses� Integral role in cultures� Safe alternative to drinking water

Problem DefinitionProblem DefinitionWine of Today

� Unique product� Evolved into an experience

• Past: Quality defined by producer

• Present: Consumer holds buying power

� Tasks of Producer• Identification of consumer wants

• Adjustment of Product or Price

Problem DefinitionProblem DefinitionQuality�Outsourced for Evaluation

1. Laboratories

2. Competitions

�Problems• Increased Cost• Defined Post Bottling• Adjustment: Selling Price

ProblemProblem DefinitionDefinitionSolution

� Quality can be found before bottling� Engineered to reach desired quality� Profit can be maximized

Method� Identification of Consumer Utility� Adjustment to Process� Competitor Comparison

Process OverviewProcess Overview

Consumer Utility and Consumer Utility and PreferencePreference

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceTheory

� Quantification of Consumer Satisfaction

α = Inferiority Function•Knowledge of product

•Function of Time

βα21 ddS +=

β=Superiority Function•Consumer preference

•Comparison to competition

Theory� By Maximizing Satisfaction (S)

� Relation of Consumer Budget (Y)

1 1 2 2 1 2/d p d p d dα ββ α=

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and Preference

1 1 2 2Y d p d p= +

Theory� β is ratio of consumer preference

� Happiness Function H i = ∑ wi yi

wi = weight•Based on consumer preference

•Fraction of 1

2 1/H Hβ =

yi = satisfaction score•Based on consumer evaluation

•Manipulated by process

Formation and Integration1. Identification of Characteristics2. Quantification of Consumer Perceptions3. Relation to Physical Properties4. Assignment of Weight5. Integration into Process

Limitations*Estimations used to generate consumer expectations.

Characteristics� Clarity� Color� Bouquet� Acidity� Sweetness� Bitterness� Body/Texture� Finish/Aftertaste

Weights of Characteristics

Clarity� Crystal Clear

� Clear

� Slightly Blurred

� Blurred

� Milky, Cloudy

� Sediment Present

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceTurbidity (NTU)

� 0.10 - 0.5

� 0.50 - 1.0

� 1.0 - 1.8

� 1.8 - 3.0

� 3.0 - 4.0

� >4

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceClarity

� Utility Functionyclarity = -.25xturbidity +1

� Manipulation• Bentonite

� Binds to proteins� Cost: $7 / 8ounces� 0.25-1.3 g/L of 5% Aqueous Solution

Color� Hue

• Shade of color

• Ranges from brown to red

� Brightness • Intensity of color

• Ranges from dull to bright

Color� Hue

• MeasurementAbsorbance Ratio = (D420/D520)

� Red: <.44� Crimson: 0.44-1.0� Brown: >1.0

� Brightness• Measurement

% Brightness = D420 + D520� 0 (Dull) � 1 (Bright)

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceColor

� HueUtility Function

y = -xD420/D5202+2xD420/D520

� BrightnessUtility Function

y = xBrightness Fraction

� Manipulation• Increase cold soak time• Alters flavor and aroma profiles

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceBouquet

� Olfactory characteristics of wine due to processing

� Result of tannins, esters, and other compounds

� Measured by solid-phase micro-extraction

� Analyzed based on number of components

� Complexity in bouquet is desired

Body/Texture� Feeling of wine in the mouth� Depth and round feature� Measured by % alcohol

• Range: 8-16 %

• Optimum: 12%

Body/Texture� Utility Function

yBody/Texture= -625 xalcohol2+150xalcohol-8

� Manipulation• Fermentation Time

• Increase time, increase alcohol

http://www.drugdeliverytech.com/cgi-bin/articles.cgi?idArticle=164

Flavor� Analyzed based on three attributes

• Sweetness

• Acidity

• Bitterness

� Balance is necessary

Acidity� pH Level

• Full Range: 2.9-4.9• Optimum: 3.0-3.4

� Manipulation• Malolactic Fermentation• Acid Blend ($5/6ounces)• 1 teaspoon/gallon

Sweetness� Residual Sugar

• Full Range: 0 – .2wt%• Optimum: .1 wt%

� Manipulation• Decrease fermentation

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and PreferenceBitterness

� Tannin Content• Full Range: 0 – 3 g/L • Optimum: 0 g/L

� Manipulation• Increase aging• Polyclar

Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and Preferenceyacidity = -xpH

2 + 6.4xpH - 9.24

ysweetness= -100x%Residual Sugar2 + 20x%Residual Sugar

ybitterness= e-2x(tannin content)

SUM OF SQUARES EMPLOYED FOR ERRORSUM OF SQUARES EMPLOYED FOR ERROR

yybalancebalance=(=(yyacidityacidity + + yysweetnesssweetness+ + yybitternessbitterness) ) ––{(y{(yaverageaverage--yyacidityacidity))22+(y+(yaverageaverage--yysweetnesssweetness))22--(y(yaverageaverage--yybitternessbitterness))22}}

ACCOUNTS FOR EFFECTS ON BALANCEACCOUNTS FOR EFFECTS ON BALANCE

Finish/Aftertaste� Final step of wine evaluation� Based on length of time on palate � Measured by residence time on palate� Cannot manipulate process to alter� Will not be used in overall function

Effects of Aging� Largest influential factor of process� Varies by type, time, and toasting effects� Toasting method: pyrolysis of oak� Ranges: Light – Dark

0 20 40 60TIME (mins)

Light Medium Heavy

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

TIME (mins)

2 mm 6 mm 10 mm 14 mm

Temperature profile of medium toast.Consumer Utility and PreferenceConsumer Utility and Preference

Complications� Consequences of Manipulations

� More data is necessary• Diffusivity• Profile• Correlations of relationships

Application of ModelApplication of Model

Crusher

Destemmer

11 ton/ hr

Grapes

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Refrigeration Water (Brine) In

Refrigeration Water (Brine) Out

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

K2S2O5Sugar Tartaric Acid

Tartaric Acid

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / minMust

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Calcium

Carbonate

(CaCO3)

Closed Tank

Cold Soaking

20000L

Refrigeration

Crusher

Destemmer

11 ton/ hr

Grapes

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Tartaric Acid

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / minMust

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Calcium

Carbonate

(CaCO3)

Closed Tank

Cold Soaking

20000L

Refrigeration

Grapes fromVineyard

Crusher

Destemmer

11 ton/ hr

Grapes

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Tartaric Acid

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / minMust

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Calcium

Carbonate

(CaCO3)

Closed Tank

Cold Soaking

20000L

Refrigeration

Crushing &Destemming

Crusher

Destemmer

11 ton/ hr

Grapes

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Tartaric Acid

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / minMust

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Calcium

Carbonate

(CaCO3)

Closed Tank

Cold Soaking

20000L

Refrigeration

Cold Soaking

Crusher

Destemmer

11 ton/ hr

Grapes

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Tartaric Acid

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / minMust

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Calcium

Carbonate

(CaCO3)

Closed Tank

Cold Soaking

20000L

Refrigeration

Must to Fermentation

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Covered Fermentation Tank

(Outside)

Refrigeration

Plates

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) In

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) Out

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Pasteur Red

Diammonium

Phosphate

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Membrane

7 tons / hr

Skins, Seeds, & Stems

K2S2O5

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

(Outside)

Refrigeration

Plates

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) In

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) Out

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Pasteur Red

Diammonium

Phosphate

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Membrane

7 tons / hr

K2S2O5

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Must from Cold Soaking

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

(Outside)

Refrigeration

Plates

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) In

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) Out

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Pasteur Red

Diammonium

Phosphate

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Membrane

7 tons / hr

K2S2O5

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

PrimaryFermentation

Pasteur RedYeast

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

(Outside)

Refrigeration

Plates

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) In

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) Out

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Pasteur Red

Diammonium

Phosphate

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Membrane

7 tons / hr

K2S2O5

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Wine Pressing

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

(Outside)

Refrigeration

Plates

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) In

Refrigeration Water

(Brine) Out

3" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Pasteur Red

Diammonium

Phosphate

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Membrane

7 tons / hr

K2S2O5

Flexible Impeller

120 gal / min

Grape SolidsTo Waste

Pressed Wine to Secondary Fermentation

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Closed Fermentation

20000L

Refrigeration

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

2" Butterfly

Racking ValveRacking

Viniflora Oenos

Malolactic (ML) Bacteria

ML BacteriaK2S2O5

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Closed Fermentation

20000L

Refrigeration

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

2" Butterfly

Viniflora Oenos

ML BacteriaK2S2O5

Pressed Wine fromPrimary Fermentation

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Closed Fermentation

20000L

Refrigeration

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

2" Butterfly

Viniflora Oenos

ML BacteriaK2S2O5

SecondaryFermentation

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Closed Fermentation

20000L

Refrigeration

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

2" Butterfly

Viniflora Oenos

ML BacteriaK2S2O5

MalolacticFermentation

Viniflora oenosBacteria

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Closed Fermentation

20000L

Refrigeration

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

2" Butterfly

Viniflora Oenos

ML BacteriaK2S2O5

CO2 Sediments to Waste

Decanted Wine to Hot and ColdStabilization

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

Hot & Cold Stabilization

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Decanted Wine fromSecondary Fermentation

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Rough Filtration

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

LeesHot and ColdStabilization

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Refrigeration(Cold)

Bentonite(Hot)

Potassium

Metabisulfite

(K2S2O5)

Filter Frame

Rough Polish

(7 Micron)

Flexible Impeller

43 gal / min

Felxible Impeller

43 gal / min

Closed Tank

20000L

Refrigeration

Bentonite

BentoniteK2S2O5

2" Butterfly

Drain Valve

Lees Sediments to Waste

Decanted Wine to Aging / Storage

Application of ModelApplication of ModelDecanted Wine fromHot and Cold Stabilization

Application of ModelApplication of ModelMaturation Vessels

Application of ModelApplication of ModelOak Plank Aging

Application of ModelApplication of Model Decanted Wine toBottling / Storage

SedimentstoWaste

Decanted Wine fromAging / Storage

Fine Filtration

Sterile Filtration

Application of ModelApplication of ModelBottling and Corking

Labeling and Boxing

Shipping

Business ModelBusiness Model

Business ModelBusiness ModelGoals

� Maximize return on investment (ROI)• Maximize net present worth (NPW)• Minimize total capital investment (TCI)

� Do not run out of working capital (WC)

� Minimize pay out time (POT)

NPWROI =

Business ModelBusiness ModelAssumptions

� Location – Oregon

� Grape Variety – Pinot Noir• Purchase grapes initially• Replace with vineyard production

� Rate of Return (ROR) – 10%

� Product Selling Price (p1) – $30

� Competitor Selling (p2) – $30

� Superiority function (β) – 0.64• Happiness of Product (H1) – 0.78• Happiness of Competitor Product (H2) – 0.5

� Total pinot noir market (Y) - $148 MM / year

2211 PdPdY +=

1 1 2 2 1 2/d p d p d dα ββ α=

Business ModelBusiness ModelVariables

� Production – 0.1 to 2.0 MM Bottles / Year

� Advertising – 2.0, 1.0, or 0.2 MM $ / Year

� 99% > WC > 50% of TCI

� α is a function of time

� α values based on advertising costs• High - $2.0 MM / year• Medium - $1.0 MM / year• Low - $0.2 MM / year

� Demand (d1) varies with selling price (p1) • Constant α values • Constant competition selling price (p2)

� Constant production• Increase α

�Decreases WC� Increases ROI

� Constant α• Increase production

�Decreases WC� Increases ROI

Business Model Business Model –– Regret AnalysisRegret Analysis

Assumptions� Constant α, p1, and production

• Increase p2

� Increase ROI

� Constant α, p1, and p2

• Increase production�ROI finds a maximum

Business Model Business Model –– Regret AnalysisRegret Analysis

Business Model Business Model –– Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

Business Model Business Model –– Risk AnalysisRisk AnalysisAssumptions

� Production costs – 20% standard deviation• Raw materials, labor, utilities

� Superiority function - β• H1 & H 2 – 20% standard deviation in each

� Inferiority function – α

• 20% standard deviation for each year

� Selling price – p2• $30 with a standard deviation of $10

Business Model Business Model –– Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

ConclusionsConclusions• Quality of wine can be evaluated

before bottling.• Process can be adjusted at negligible

cost.• A business model can be formed to

maximize ROI.

ConclusionsConclusions• For higher values of α and lower values of β, the less a competitor’s price effects the producer’s ROI.

• Based on the current business model, the optimum production capacity is 1.15 million bottles / year at a selling price of $30:� ROI – 102%� NPW – $44,000,000� Pay Out Time – 4 years

Future WorkFuture Work• Incorporate more detailed economies

of scale • More detailed analysis of the physical

properties and effects of process adjustments : modeling

• Study effect of bottle aging on happiness of wine

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements• Dr. Susan E. Ebeler, UC Davis• Trung Hoang, T.A.• Dr. Miguel Bagajewicz, Instructor

• OU CBME Department• “Sideways”

Questions?Questions?

Michael T. Frow Susan L. Kerr - University of Oklahoma€¦ · Wine Grape Solids To Waste Pressed...

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