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Mexico: Highlights
1 Source: INEGI. Census of Population and Housing, 2010 Basic Questionnaire. 2 Source: World Bank. 3 Source: Bp Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015. http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf 4. Source: Iea.org, Key World Energy Statistics 2014.
TOTAL POPULATION: 112.3 MILLIONS1 309.3 MILLIONS
GDP: USD $1,039 MILLON 2 USD $14,582 MILLION2
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS - NATURAL GAS (2012)4
COUNTRY USA RUSSIAN
FEDERATION JAPAN IRAN MEXICO ITALY EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA THAILAND KOREA
REST OF THE WORLD WORLD
TWH 1265 525 397 170 151 129 125 121 112 117 1988 5100
8TH PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD CONSUMPTION 3,029 BCF 3
13TH PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD PRODUCTION 2,051 BCF 3 35TH PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD PROVED RESERVES 12.3 TCF 3
MEXICO USA
Natural gas consumption by sector Consumption Distribution By Sector (August 2015)
PEMEX 2,159
INDUSTRIAL 894
DISTRIBUTORS 388
ELECTRICITY 1,410
SELF-GENERATION 141
40%
17% 7%
26%
3%
COMMERCIALS 352
7%
1,262
390
187
320
SOURCE: BDI, SEPT 2015
Pemex Exploración y Producción
Pemex Refinación
Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica
Pemex Petroquímica
Industrial demand of natural gas & manufacturing GDP growth
• In the last decade , the growth of natural gas consumption in the industrial sector has shown an annual average growth of 5.4 percent, well above the 1.9 percent rate that obtained the manufacturing GDP figure the same period
8.42
2.57
-1.30
-11.08
15.50
7.11 4.59 4.98
10.16
16.38
4.5
1.0 -1.0
-8.4
8.5
4.6 4.1 1.0
3.7 1.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Industrial Demand (MMcfpd) Manufacturing GDP (Billion Pesos 2008)
Estimate trends for mexican industrial demand of natural gas
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Industrial 1,240 1,366 1,590 1,713 1,804 1,910 1,973 2,033 2,100 2,166 2,234 2,304 2,383 2,462 2,546 2,630
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000 M
Mcf
pd
Source: SENER “Prospectiva de gas natural y gas LP 2014-2028”
Natural gas forecast demand in Mexico
Source: SENER “Prospectiva de gas natural y gas LP 2014-2028”
MMCFPD
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Pemex producAon Imports -‐ exports Total Demand
Connecting Mexico with better markets
THE MEXICAN PIPELINE EXPANSIONS ARE
GIVING THE POSSIBILITY TO
ACCESS IN CHEAPER MARKETS IN THE U.S.
USA TETCO REX
Agua Dulce Henry Hub
Tennesse zone 4-300 Leg
NGPL
La Laguna
El Encino Colombia
Escobedo
Naranjos Tuxpan
Topolobampo
Durango
Cempoala
Los Ramones
JálApan
Salina Cruz
Tamazunchale
V. Reyes
Guadalajara
Aguascalientes
Sásabe
Tapachula
San Isidro
Guaymas
Puerto Libertad
El Oro Camargo
Samalayuca
Mazatlán Altamira
Apaseo el Alto
Lázaro Cárdenas
Acapulco Nuevo Pemex
Ciudad Pemex
Huexca
Tula
Zacatecas San Luis Potosí
NaAvitas
Current Interconections to the Mexican Border
Argüelles Reynosa
Tennessee Reynosa
Kinder Morgan Border
Tennessee Río Bravo
Río Bravo
San Fernando
Est. Nº19
Los Ramones
Monterrey
Chihuahua
Cd. Juárez Tetco
Enterprise
Rosarito
El Paso
North Baja Kinder Morgan
Texas
GDR
OneOk/OkTex
Kinder Morgan GN
México
Gasoductos de Tamaulipas
Mier
Hermosillo
El Paso-
Wilcox
El Paso-Naco
Bajanorte Naco
LNG
Net Mex Pipeline
GDN
Camargo
Firm Capacity
Interruptible capacity
Samalayuca GDCH
Tarahumara
Transport system Firm Capacity MMBtu
Net Mexico Pipeline (Texas) 1,000,000
Kinder Morgan Border (Texas) 230,000
Kinder Morgan Texas (Texas) 525,000
Tennessee Gas Pipeline (Texas) 243,000
El Paso Natural Gas (Arizona) 10,661
El Paso Natural Gas (Texas) 54,790
Crude Oil HeaAng Oil Propane Natural gas Fuel oil Gasoline
Related market prices HYDROCARBONS* ORIGINAL PRICES EQUIVALENT PRICES
CRUDE OIL (WTI, CUSHING OKLAHOMA NYMEX) $46.14 USD/BARRIL $7.9 USD/MMBTU HEATING OIL (DIESEL, NYMEX NEW YORK HARBOR) $1.5 USD/GAL $11 USD/MMBTU PROPANE (MONT BELVIEU, TX.) $43.8USD/GALÓN $4.8 USD/MMBTU NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB, NYMEX) $2.5 USD/MMBTU $2.5 USD/MMBTU FUEL OIL (HIGH SULFUR FUEL OIL, NYMEX) $212 USD/GAL $5.4 USD/MMBTU GASOLINE (NYMEX) $1.27 USD/GAL $10.1 USD/MMBTU
Information as of Oct 19, 2015 *Reference Prices
Prices of Natural Gas
USD/MMBtu
Elaborated by Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica using Thomson Reuters prices.
International prices
Mexico prices
7.9 7.9
11
24
4.8
7.5
2.5
5.4
10.1
24.8
Natural gas international prices Prices as October 14th 2015 (USD/MMBtu)
* Prices in green are from a previous week
Source: Elaborated by Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica using Platts International Gas Reports.
$2.57/2.58 So Cal
$ 2.52/2.52 Nymex Henry Hub
$2.45/2.46 Reynosa
$ 5.37/3.50 Algonquin
$6.23/6.06 UK NBP
$6.04/6.02 Dutch TTF
$6.64/6.68 Italian PSV
$6.65/6.60 India
$6.45/6.40 China
$6.65/6.60 Japón
$6.65/6.60 Corea del Sur
EUROPA
ASIA
$6.06/6.04 Germany EGT
$7.16/7.16 Perú
Net exports from us to Mexico (2014-2015) PGPB only
1
2
NET EXPORTS 2014-2015 (MMBTU/D) 2014 2015
1. WESTTEXAS 299,339 45,940 2. SOUTH TEXAS 979,800 1,227,949
2014 2015
WEST TEXAS, AZ. CALIF. MMBTU/D
SAMALAYUCA 89,718 0 CHIHUAHUA-CDJ 117,965 38,796 NACO 34,801 7,144
NORTE II 56,855 0 NORTH BAJA 0 0
TOTAL: 299,339 45,940
SOUTH TEXAS TRANSPORTATION SOUTH TEXAS (MMBTU/D) 2014 2015
TENNESSEE (1999) 215,398 67,652
K.M. BORDER (2000) 216,192 173,816
K.M. TEXAS (2003) 422,316 452,441
TENNESSEE RB (2003) 73,768 0
TETCO (~ 1950) 41,818 2,712
NET (2014) 10,308 531,328
TOTAL: 979,800 1,227,949
Source: BDI, Sept 2015.
WEST TEXAS
Net exports from US to Mexico (2014 - 2015) PGPB only
NET AVERAGE EXPORTS 2014 – 2015 (MMBTU/D) 2014 2015*
1,279,139 1,273,889
* Jan-Sep 2015
MMBTu/day 2015 2014
1,139,254
1,318,019 1,285,747 1,286,183 1,324,219
1,422,843
1,424,591 1,380,998 1,402,086
1,307,756
1,051,378
1,011,832 1,108,041
1,168,491
1,208,740
1,133,078
1,270,997
1,368,500
1,486,642 1,447,268 1,488,615
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
2014
2015
Jan Apr Aug Dec
Source: BDI 2015 September
Natural gas transport infrastructure 2015
PRIVATE PIPELINES PEMEX GAS PIPELINES PEMEX GAS IMPORTS PRIVATE IMPORTS PEMEX GAS COMPRESSION STATION PRIVATE COMPRESSION STATION
i
5,825 MILES OF NATURAL GAS PIPELINES1
15 COMPRESSION STATIONS: - 402,115 HP - 265,725 HP: PEMEX GAS - 136,390 HP: PRIVATES
5,0122 MMCFPD TRANSPORT CAPACITY IN THE NGS (NATIONAL GAS SYSTEM) AND 90 MMCFPD IN NACO – HERMOSILLO PIPELINE.
i
1 Source: Memory tasks 2012 (9,038 km). It includes Jáltipan Salina Cruz 12” pipeline and Los Ramones Project Phase I, which will provide 71.46 miles in December 2014. 2 Reference: Capacity in accordance with Resolution 204 of 2010 of the Energy Regulatory Commission.
El Sauz
Aguascalientes
Gloria a Dios
El Sueco
GDT
Tejas Gas
S.L.P.
Mayakan
Chávez
Kinder Morgan
LNG Altamira
i LNG Manzanillo
i
i
Valtierrilla
i i
i i
Guadalajara
i
i
i
Zacatecas
Tamazunchale
LNG Ensenada
i
Altamira
Naco
Sásabe
Los Ramones
Guaymas
Tucson
Natural gas infrastructure projects 2015-2019
LNG regasification terminals Pipelines in operation Concluded Pipelines (2013/2014/2015) Pipelines in construction (2015/2016) Pipelines included at “Plan Quinquenal” Compression Station “El Cabrito”
Pipelines 1. San Isidro- Samalayuca (CFE) 2. Sur de Texas – Tuxpan (submarino) (CFE) 3. Tula – Villa de Reyes (CFE) 4. Tuxpan – Tula (CFE) 5. Samalayuca – Sásabe (CFE) 6. Colombia – Escobedo 7. Jáltipan – Salina Cruz (PEMEX) 8. Los Ramones – Cempoala 9. Villa de Reyes - Ags. – Guadalajara (CFE) 10. La Laguna – Aguascalientes (CFE) 11. Lázaro Cárdenas – Acapulco 12. Salina Cruz – Tapachula
Source: SENER. Plan Quinquenal de Transporte y Almacenamiento Nacional Integrado de Gas Natural 2015-2019.
La Laguna
El Encino Colombia
Escobedo
Naranjos
Tuxpan
Topolobampo
Durango
Cempoala
Los Ramones
Jáltipan
Salina Cruz
Tamazunchale
V. Reyes
Guadalajara
Aguascalientes
Sásabe
Tapachula
San Isidro
Guaymas
Puerto Libertad
El Oro
Camargo
Samalayuca
Mazatlán Altamira
Apaseo el Alto
Lázaro Cárdenas
Acapulco
Nuevo Pemex
Ciudad Pemex Huexca
Tula
Zacatecas San Luis Potosí
Nativitas
1
2
3 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 12
Natural gas infrastructure projects 2015-2019
Project Sponsor Lenght (kms)
Es>mated Investment (MMUSD)
Es>mated date of Bidding
Es>mated Opera>onal
Date
1 San Isidro -‐ Samalayuca CFE 23 109* 2015 2017 2 Sur de Texas – Tuxpan (submarino) CFE 800 3,100 2015 2018 3 Tula – Villa de Reyes CFE 295 420 2015 2017 4 Tuxpan – Tula CFE 263 400 2015 2017 5 Samalayuca – Sásabe CFE 650 571* 2015 2017 6 Colombia – Escobedo To be define 300 N/A 2016 2018 7 JálApan – Salina Cruz PEMEX 247 643 2015 2017 8 Los Ramones – Cempoala To be define 855 1,980 2017 2019 9 Villa de Reyes -‐ Aguascalientes – Guadalajara CFE 355 555 2015 2017 10 La Laguna –Aguascalientes CFE 600 1,000 2016 2017 11 Lázaro Cárdenas – Acapulco To be define 331 456 2016 2018 12 Salina Cruz – Tapachula To be define 440 442 2016 2018 13 El Cabrito Compression StaAon PEMEX N/A 60 2015 2016
*Amount of investment estimated by the winning bidder of the project
Firm export capacity of natural gas from US to Mexico 2014-2016
2014 2015 2016
1.588
1.988
2.520
0.300
1.115
1.974
Bcf/D MGS
CFE
Energy reform THE OPERATION OF PEMEX AS UNIQUE PRODUCER OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY A NEW MODEL OF OPEN COMPETITION:
DECENTRALIZED PUBLIC ENTITY § PRODUCTIVE COMPANY OF THE STATE (PEMEX). § PRODUCTIVE SUBSIDIARIES ENTITIES (PEP, TRI & LOGISTICS).
PEMEX BEFORE (OLD MODEL)
PEMEX NOW (NEW MODEL)
§ COMPETITIVE COMPANY WHOSE PURPOSE IS TO CREATE ECONOMIC VALUE. RESOURCE MANAGER
§ MARKET SHAREHOLDER. § SENER IS ON CHARGE OF ENERGY SECURITY, IN SUPPLY
MATTERS. RESPONSIBLE OF SUPPLY ASSURANCE
§ PERMIT REGULATION FOR ALL ACTIVITIES OF THE VALUE CHAIN.
PERMIT REGIME FOR SOME ACTIVITIES
New Business Models - Downstream PEMEX has developed successful strategic alliances in downstream activities.
GAS PIPELINES
PEMEX’S PARTICIPATION
OBJECTIVE NATURAL GAS AND LPG
TRANSPORTATION TO POWER PLANTS IN THE NORTHERN
REGION OF MEXICO
OPERATIONS STARTUP 1997
TO DEVELOP INFRASTRUCTURE
PROJECT “AGUA DULCE-FRONTERA”
2013
TO DEVELOP INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT
“LOS RAMONES II NORTH AND SOUTH”
2013
TO DEVELOP INFRASTRUCTURE
PROJECT “TUCSON-SÁSABE”
2013
JOINT VENTURES
COMPANY El Paso Natural Gas (1997)
Sempra Energy (2010) (partner)
NET (partner) MGS & MGE (subsidiaries) / GCh (investee) / GDF Suez
(partner)
Kinder Morgan/ Mitsui (partners)
Conclusions • PEMEX, as a Productive State Enterprise aims to maximize economic value and profitability
for the Mexican state, by improving its productivity to maximize oil and gas revenues and contribute to national development.
• PEMEX operation as the only producer of hydrocarbons in the country has changed by a new model of open competition.
• PEMEX can take advantage of the opportunity to establish new legal framework with strategic partners to consider alliances or joint ventures.
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