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I S S U E S amp A N S W E R S R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0
At Learning Points Associates
Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand
U S D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n
I S S U E SampANSWERS R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0
At Learning Point Associates
MethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatesforstudying
teachersupplyanddemand
September2009
Preparedby
JamesJLindsayPhDLearningPointAssociates
YinmeiWanPhDLearningPointAssociates
WillGossin-WilsonLearningPointAssociates
U S D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n
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At Learning Point Associates
IssuesampAnswersisanongoingseriesofreportsfromshortshytermFastResponseProjectsconductedbytheregionaleducashytionallaboratoriesoncurrenteducationissuesofimportanceatlocalstateandregionallevelsFastResponseProjecttopicschangetoreflectnewissuesasidentifiedthroughlaboutreachandrequestsforassistancefrompolicymakersandeducashytorsatstateandlocallevelsandfromcommunitiesbusinessesparentsfamiliesandyouthAllIssuesampAnswersreportsmeetInstituteofEducationSciencesstandardsforscientificallyvalidresearch
September2009
ThisreportwaspreparedfortheInstituteofEducationSciences(IES)underContractEDshy06shyCOshy0019byRegionalEducashytionalLaboratoryMidwestadministeredbyLearningPointAssociatesThecontentofthepublicationdoesnotnecessarshyilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofIESortheUSDepartmentofEducationnordoesmentionoftradenamescommercialproductsororganizationsimplyendorsementbytheUSGovernment
ThisreportisinthepublicdomainWhilepermissiontoreprintthispublicationisnotnecessaryitshouldbecitedas
LindsayJJWanYandGossinshyWilsonW(2009)Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supshyply and demand(IssuesampAnswersReportREL2008ndashNo080)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationEvaluationandRegionalAssistanceRegionalEducationalLaboratoryMidwestRetrievedfromhttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Thisreportisavailableontheregionaleducationallaboratorywebsiteathttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Summary
Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand
REL 2009ndashNo 080
ThisreportdescribeshowstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionmonitorteachersupplydemandandshortagedetailswhytheymonitorthesedataandoffersestimatesofthemonetarycostsincurredinperformingsuchstudies
ThisstudyrespondstoarequestfromstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegion(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)tolearnmoreaboutteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedinneighboringstates
Thestudyaimedtoanswerthefollowingresearchquestions
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkshyforcemonitoringprojectionandreportshyingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionsthestudyreviewed27teachersupplyanddemandreportsproshyducedbyandfortheMidwestRegionstates
since2000AdditionalinformationcamefrominterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsresponsibleforproducingthereshyportsAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingtodefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandThestudyfindshyingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
ThestudyfoundthatstateeducationagenciesconductteachersupplyanddemandstudiestocomplywithfederallawsandregulationsincludingprovisionsofpartBoftheIndividushyalswithDisabilitiesEducationActfederalregulationsonloandefermentorforgiveshynessprogramsandscholarshipsandTitleIIrequirementsoftheHigherEducationActFourofthesevenMidwestRegionstatesalsoconductteachersupplyanddemandstudshyiestocomplywithstatestatutesThedatasourcesusedandthenumberofdataelementsanalyzedindicatethatatleastthreestatesgobeyondcompliancewithfederallawsorrulesThesestatesgatherinformationfrommultiplesourcestocrossshyvalidatetheirdataandtoobtainrichertypesofdatatoaidpolicymakersinensuringadequatestaffingWhileseveralstatesprojectstudentenrollmentorteacherretirementsonlytwostatesproduceaforecastofteacherdemand
MidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandvaryincomplexity
ii Summary
andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators
andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints
Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000
September2009
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
I S S U E SampANSWERS R E L 2 0 0 9 ndash N o 0 8 0
At Learning Point Associates
MethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatesforstudying
teachersupplyanddemand
September2009
Preparedby
JamesJLindsayPhDLearningPointAssociates
YinmeiWanPhDLearningPointAssociates
WillGossin-WilsonLearningPointAssociates
U S D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n
WA
OR
ID
MT
NV
CA
UT
AZ
WY
ND
SD
NE
KSCO
NM
TX
OK
CO
AR
LA
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
KY
TN
PA
NY
FL
AK
MN
WI
IA
IL IN
MI
OH
VT
NH
ME
MO
At Learning Point Associates
IssuesampAnswersisanongoingseriesofreportsfromshortshytermFastResponseProjectsconductedbytheregionaleducashytionallaboratoriesoncurrenteducationissuesofimportanceatlocalstateandregionallevelsFastResponseProjecttopicschangetoreflectnewissuesasidentifiedthroughlaboutreachandrequestsforassistancefrompolicymakersandeducashytorsatstateandlocallevelsandfromcommunitiesbusinessesparentsfamiliesandyouthAllIssuesampAnswersreportsmeetInstituteofEducationSciencesstandardsforscientificallyvalidresearch
September2009
ThisreportwaspreparedfortheInstituteofEducationSciences(IES)underContractEDshy06shyCOshy0019byRegionalEducashytionalLaboratoryMidwestadministeredbyLearningPointAssociatesThecontentofthepublicationdoesnotnecessarshyilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofIESortheUSDepartmentofEducationnordoesmentionoftradenamescommercialproductsororganizationsimplyendorsementbytheUSGovernment
ThisreportisinthepublicdomainWhilepermissiontoreprintthispublicationisnotnecessaryitshouldbecitedas
LindsayJJWanYandGossinshyWilsonW(2009)Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supshyply and demand(IssuesampAnswersReportREL2008ndashNo080)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationEvaluationandRegionalAssistanceRegionalEducationalLaboratoryMidwestRetrievedfromhttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Thisreportisavailableontheregionaleducationallaboratorywebsiteathttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Summary
Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand
REL 2009ndashNo 080
ThisreportdescribeshowstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionmonitorteachersupplydemandandshortagedetailswhytheymonitorthesedataandoffersestimatesofthemonetarycostsincurredinperformingsuchstudies
ThisstudyrespondstoarequestfromstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegion(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)tolearnmoreaboutteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedinneighboringstates
Thestudyaimedtoanswerthefollowingresearchquestions
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkshyforcemonitoringprojectionandreportshyingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionsthestudyreviewed27teachersupplyanddemandreportsproshyducedbyandfortheMidwestRegionstates
since2000AdditionalinformationcamefrominterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsresponsibleforproducingthereshyportsAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingtodefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandThestudyfindshyingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
ThestudyfoundthatstateeducationagenciesconductteachersupplyanddemandstudiestocomplywithfederallawsandregulationsincludingprovisionsofpartBoftheIndividushyalswithDisabilitiesEducationActfederalregulationsonloandefermentorforgiveshynessprogramsandscholarshipsandTitleIIrequirementsoftheHigherEducationActFourofthesevenMidwestRegionstatesalsoconductteachersupplyanddemandstudshyiestocomplywithstatestatutesThedatasourcesusedandthenumberofdataelementsanalyzedindicatethatatleastthreestatesgobeyondcompliancewithfederallawsorrulesThesestatesgatherinformationfrommultiplesourcestocrossshyvalidatetheirdataandtoobtainrichertypesofdatatoaidpolicymakersinensuringadequatestaffingWhileseveralstatesprojectstudentenrollmentorteacherretirementsonlytwostatesproduceaforecastofteacherdemand
MidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandvaryincomplexity
ii Summary
andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators
andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints
Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000
September2009
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
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AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
WA
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UT
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WY
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SD
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KSCO
NM
TX
OK
CO
AR
LA
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
KY
TN
PA
NY
FL
AK
MN
WI
IA
IL IN
MI
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VT
NH
ME
MO
At Learning Point Associates
IssuesampAnswersisanongoingseriesofreportsfromshortshytermFastResponseProjectsconductedbytheregionaleducashytionallaboratoriesoncurrenteducationissuesofimportanceatlocalstateandregionallevelsFastResponseProjecttopicschangetoreflectnewissuesasidentifiedthroughlaboutreachandrequestsforassistancefrompolicymakersandeducashytorsatstateandlocallevelsandfromcommunitiesbusinessesparentsfamiliesandyouthAllIssuesampAnswersreportsmeetInstituteofEducationSciencesstandardsforscientificallyvalidresearch
September2009
ThisreportwaspreparedfortheInstituteofEducationSciences(IES)underContractEDshy06shyCOshy0019byRegionalEducashytionalLaboratoryMidwestadministeredbyLearningPointAssociatesThecontentofthepublicationdoesnotnecessarshyilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofIESortheUSDepartmentofEducationnordoesmentionoftradenamescommercialproductsororganizationsimplyendorsementbytheUSGovernment
ThisreportisinthepublicdomainWhilepermissiontoreprintthispublicationisnotnecessaryitshouldbecitedas
LindsayJJWanYandGossinshyWilsonW(2009)Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supshyply and demand(IssuesampAnswersReportREL2008ndashNo080)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationEvaluationandRegionalAssistanceRegionalEducationalLaboratoryMidwestRetrievedfromhttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Thisreportisavailableontheregionaleducationallaboratorywebsiteathttpiesedgovnceeedlabs
Summary
Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand
REL 2009ndashNo 080
ThisreportdescribeshowstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionmonitorteachersupplydemandandshortagedetailswhytheymonitorthesedataandoffersestimatesofthemonetarycostsincurredinperformingsuchstudies
ThisstudyrespondstoarequestfromstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegion(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)tolearnmoreaboutteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedinneighboringstates
Thestudyaimedtoanswerthefollowingresearchquestions
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkshyforcemonitoringprojectionandreportshyingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionsthestudyreviewed27teachersupplyanddemandreportsproshyducedbyandfortheMidwestRegionstates
since2000AdditionalinformationcamefrominterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsresponsibleforproducingthereshyportsAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingtodefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandThestudyfindshyingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
ThestudyfoundthatstateeducationagenciesconductteachersupplyanddemandstudiestocomplywithfederallawsandregulationsincludingprovisionsofpartBoftheIndividushyalswithDisabilitiesEducationActfederalregulationsonloandefermentorforgiveshynessprogramsandscholarshipsandTitleIIrequirementsoftheHigherEducationActFourofthesevenMidwestRegionstatesalsoconductteachersupplyanddemandstudshyiestocomplywithstatestatutesThedatasourcesusedandthenumberofdataelementsanalyzedindicatethatatleastthreestatesgobeyondcompliancewithfederallawsorrulesThesestatesgatherinformationfrommultiplesourcestocrossshyvalidatetheirdataandtoobtainrichertypesofdatatoaidpolicymakersinensuringadequatestaffingWhileseveralstatesprojectstudentenrollmentorteacherretirementsonlytwostatesproduceaforecastofteacherdemand
MidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandvaryincomplexity
ii Summary
andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators
andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints
Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000
September2009
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Summary
Methodologies used by Midwest Region states for studying teacher supply and demand
REL 2009ndashNo 080
ThisreportdescribeshowstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionmonitorteachersupplydemandandshortagedetailswhytheymonitorthesedataandoffersestimatesofthemonetarycostsincurredinperformingsuchstudies
ThisstudyrespondstoarequestfromstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegion(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)tolearnmoreaboutteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedinneighboringstates
Thestudyaimedtoanswerthefollowingresearchquestions
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkshyforcemonitoringprojectionandreportshyingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionsthestudyreviewed27teachersupplyanddemandreportsproshyducedbyandfortheMidwestRegionstates
since2000AdditionalinformationcamefrominterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsresponsibleforproducingthereshyportsAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingtodefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandThestudyfindshyingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
ThestudyfoundthatstateeducationagenciesconductteachersupplyanddemandstudiestocomplywithfederallawsandregulationsincludingprovisionsofpartBoftheIndividushyalswithDisabilitiesEducationActfederalregulationsonloandefermentorforgiveshynessprogramsandscholarshipsandTitleIIrequirementsoftheHigherEducationActFourofthesevenMidwestRegionstatesalsoconductteachersupplyanddemandstudshyiestocomplywithstatestatutesThedatasourcesusedandthenumberofdataelementsanalyzedindicatethatatleastthreestatesgobeyondcompliancewithfederallawsorrulesThesestatesgatherinformationfrommultiplesourcestocrossshyvalidatetheirdataandtoobtainrichertypesofdatatoaidpolicymakersinensuringadequatestaffingWhileseveralstatesprojectstudentenrollmentorteacherretirementsonlytwostatesproduceaforecastofteacherdemand
MidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandvaryincomplexity
ii Summary
andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators
andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints
Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000
September2009
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
ii Summary
andcostInatradeoffbetweeninformationandcostmorecomprehensivestudiescostmoreandproducericherdataandmorepolicyshyrelevantanalysesRespondentsrevealthatwhendeterminingapproachesstatesweighthecostsofconductingthesestudiesagainstthebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationTwostatesrelymostlyonasingleindicatorofteachershortageOtherstatesusemultimethodapproachesthatcombineanalysesofstatedatashybaseswithresultsfromsurveysoflocaleducashytionagencypersonnelrepresentativesofinstishytutionsofhighereducationandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsAlthoughmoststateshaveconductedtheirsupplyanddemandstudiessince2000usingthesameindicators
andanalyticmethodologiessomestateshavescaledbacktheirsupplyanddemandstudiesconsiderablybecauseofbudgetaryconstraints
Theestimatedcoststostatesofconductingthesestudiesvaryconsiderablyfromapproxishymately$10to$35000Studiesconductedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfedshyerallawsorrulesandstatestatutesandruleswiththesamerequirementsasthefederalreportingwereestimatedbythestudyandbystateeducationagencystafftocostlessthan$4000Morecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiescost$25000ndash$35000
September2009
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table of conTenTs
Whythisstudy 1
Componentsofteachersupplyanddemand 2
Advantagesanddisadvantagesofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudies 5Advantages 5Disadvantages 5
TeachersupplyanddemandmodelsusedinMidwestRegionstates 6StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits 8StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters 9StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies 9StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases 10StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducation
agencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions 11StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducation
agencies 13StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollected
fromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters 14Summaryoffindings 16
InterpretingMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemand 17Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys 17Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs 18
Studylimitations 20
AppendixA Descriptionsofcodesoffederalregulationandfederallawrelatedtoteachershortageareas 21
AppendixB Theliteraturereviewforforecastmodels 23
AppendixC Interviewquestions 26
AppendixD DatareportedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportsbyMidwestRegionstate 27
Notes 32
References 34
Boxes
1 Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents 3
2 Studymethods 6
Figure
B1 Literaturesearchresults 24
Tables
1 DataexaminedinmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 7
iii Table of conTenTS
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
2 LegislativerequirementsandcostsassociatedwithmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudiesconductedbyMidwestRegionstates2007and2008 8
3 TeachersupplyanddemandcomponentsmeasuredinmostrecentMidwestRegionstatesupplyanddemandstudies2007and2008 19
D1 DatareportedinStateArsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport2008 27
D2 DatareportedinStateBrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportOctober2008 27
D3 DatareportedinStateCrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJuly2008 27
D4 DatareportedinStateDrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportAugust2007 28
D5 DatareportedinStateErsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 29
D6 DatareportedinStateFrsquosmostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreportJanuary2009 30
D7 DataReportedinStateGrsquosMostRecentTeacherSupplyandDemandReport2007 31
iv Table of conTenTS
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
1 Why ThiS STudy
This report describes how state education agencies in the Midwest Region monitor teacher supply demand and shortage details why they monitor these data and offers estimates of the monetary costs incurred in performing such studies
Why This sTudy
Thepublicationin1983ofA Nation at Risk warnedpolicymakersandthepublicthattheimpendingwavesofretiringteachersandrisshyingstudentenrollmentswouldcauseteachershortagesinscienceandmathematicsandothersubjectareas(NationalCommissiononExcelshylenceinEducation1983)Amongthepreliminaryresponsesatbothnationalandstatelevelswastodevisemethodsforempiricallyconfirmingtheimpendingthreattoschoolstaffingandtocreate
proceduresforcontinuallymonitoringteachersupplyanddemand
AtthenationalleveltheSchoolsandStaffingSurveys(SASS)andTeacherFollowshyupSurveys(TFS)oftheNationalCenterforEducationStatisshytics(NCES)wereexpandedtobetterassessschoolstaffingissues(HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thesurveysalongwithannualprojectionsofschoolenrollmentandnumbersofteachers(acollaborationbetweenNCESandtheUSCensusBureau)havebecomeadependablesourceofinformationonteachersupshyplyanddemandforpolicymakersandresearchersconcernedaboutthisissuenationally
StatestooattempttomonitorthesupplydeshymandshortageandsurplusofteacherswithinteachingfieldsataminimumtocomplywithfederallawsandadministrativecodesStatesarerequiredtoprovidetheUSDepartmentofEducationwithalistofteachershortageareasundercodesthatallowforloandefermentloanforgivenessandscholarshipsforaspiringteachersindesignatedshortagefields(34CFR6535034CFR6745334CFR682210and34CFR69612)StatesalsogathersupplyanddemandinformashytionforspecialeducationteacherstomeetpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationAct(appendixAdescribesthesefederalregulationsandlaws)
StatesalsomaywanttogathermoreinshydepthinformationaboutteachersupplyanddemandtobettercoordinateshortshyandlongshytermresponsestoschoolstaffingchallengesForexamplebyidentifyingsubjectareasandregionsinthestatethatareexperiencingshortagesstatescanhelpcoshyordinatetheproductionofteachersamongteacherpreparationinstitutionsFindingsofteachersupplyanddemandstudiescanguideproducshytiontargetsfortrainingnewteachersandhelpinmonitoringachievementofthesetargetsInshydepthanalysisofteachersupplyanddemandinastatealsocaninformarangeofrelatedpoliciesthataffecttheteachingprofessionincludingstandardsofteacherpreparationcertificationrequirements
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
2 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
inshystateandoutofstaterecruitmentpracticestenurecompensationsystemsandretirementbenefitsandpensionsystemsDetailedteachersupplyanddemandinformationcanhelpstatesandlocaleducationagencies1makeadjustmentstoteacherndashstudentratiosaswell
HoweverstateslackguidanceonhowtoassessteacherdemandtheseverityofteachershortshyagesandthenumberofteachersavailabletomeetdemandInparticularstateeducationagenciesintheMidwestRegionhaveexpressedadesiretolearnmoreaboutmethodologiesforconductingteachersupplyanddemandstudiesThisreportoffersinformationonthevarietyofapproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandandonhowtheseapproachesvaryincostandusefulnessforplanning
Thestudyaddressesthreeresearchquestions2
bull WhatmotivatesstatestoassessteachersupplyanddemandAreteacherworkforcemonitorshyingprojectionandreportingrequiredbystatelaworcode
bull WhatmethodologiesdoMidwestRegionstatesemploytomonitorteachersupplyanddemand
bull Whatarethecostsofvariousstateapproaches
Toaddressthesequestionstheresearchteamexamined27teachersupplyanddemandreportsofMidwestRegionstates(IllinoisIndianaIowaMichiganMinnesotaOhioandWisconsin)proshy
ducedsince2000andcataloguedthemethodologiesdescribedThe overarching goal inthereports(seeappendixB)of conducting a study Interviewswithninestateeducashyof teacher supply and tionagencystafforcontractorsdemand is to identify the responsibleforthemostrecentgap between supply and reportwereconductedtoensuredemand both generally thattheresearchteamclearlyand for specific teaching understoodstateeffortstoassessfields and regions teachersupplyanddemand(see
appendixC)RespondentsalsowereaskedaboutthemotivesunderlyingstateeducationagencyeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandaboutotherteacherstaffingworkthattheyperformandaboutthecostsofconductingthemostrecentstudyAsystematicliteraturereviewinformedtheresearchhelpingdefinethecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemand(seebox1)Thestudyfindingsareframedaroundthosecomponents
coMponenTs of TeacheR supply and deMand
TheoverarchinggoalofconductingastudyofteachersupplyanddemandistoidentifythegapbetweensupplyanddemandbothgenerallyandforspecificteachingfieldsandregionsThefindshyingsreportedhereareorganizedaroundthemaincomponentsofteachersupplyanddemanddrawnfromasystematicreviewoftheliterature(seebox1)aswellastheconceptsofteachershortagesandsurpluses
Teachersupplyanddemandstudiesvaryconsidershyablyintheirdisaggregationofdatabyteachingspecialtyteachergradelevel(licensurefieldsorendorsementareas)andgeographicarea(suchasregionsinastateandruralorurbanareas)MostofthereviewedstudiesfocusonthenumberofteachersfullycertifiedorlicensedintheirprimaryteachingfieldSomerelatedstudiesfocusonthenumberoflessqualifiedteachers(lessthanfullycertifiedorcredentialedintheirteachingarea)asasingleindicatorofteachershortage
Whendemandexceedssupplyforagivenfieldorregionandthereisashortageofteachersthestateorschoolsmighthavetotakedrasticmeasurestoclosethegap(suchasapplyingforemergencylishycensesorconditionalpermitstoallowunderqualishyfiedteacherstocoversomeclassesortoincreasethenumberofstudentsperclassorteacher)Whensupplyexceedsdemandandthereisasurplusofteacherscandidatesseekingjobsandnotobtainshyingthemmayhavetofindemploymentinanotherstateteachingfieldorsector
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
3 componenTS of Teacher Supply and demand
box 1
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
Thedefinitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentspresentedhereareconsistentwithmoststudiesofteachersupplyanddemandfromaneducationpolicyperspective1
Demand
Total teacher demandisdefinedasthenumberofteachersrequiredtoadequatelystaffschools(ArnoldChoyandBobbit1993Dolton2006HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thedefinitionimpliesa prevalence model whichdeshyfinesdemandasafunctionofstudentenrollmentandpreferredteachershystudentratiosratherthanamarket modelwhichspecifiesthenumberofteachersbasedontheresourcesavailabletoastateorschooldistrictandallowsteacherndashstudentratiostovarywithavailableresources2StatesandlocaleducationagenciestendtohavefixedminimumteacherndashstudentratiosmakingtheprevalencemodelmorerelevantThefollowingcomshyponentsgointocalculatingteacherdemand
Total demand = number of teaching positions to staff classrooms (number of teachers retained + new demand)
wherenumberofteachersretainedequalsnumberofteachersfrompreviousyearminusattrition(reshytirementleftprofessiondeathordisabilityandsometimesmobility)andnewdemandequalsnumberofadditionalteachersneededtostaff
schools(tocoverchangesinenrollshymentvacanciesduetoattritionandadjustmentsforresourceandpolicychanges)
InsomestudiesdemandreferstothenumberofadditionalteachersneededtomakeupforteacherattritionstudentenrollmentchangesandchangestostatepolicyThisreportreferstothisconceptasnew demand
Attrition or retention Onechallengeinestimatingnewdemandinvolvesdeterminingthenumberofteacherswhohaveendedtheiremploymentorareexpectedtodosousuallybetweenschoolyears(GrissmerandKirby1991)Theattrition rate istheproportionofteacherswholeavetheirpositionswhiletheretention rate istheproportionofteacherswhomaintaintheirpositionsfromyeartoyear(calculatedas1ndashatshytritionrate)SomestudiesdefineattritionasleavingforanyreasonOthersbreakattritiondownbythereasonsteachersleave(movementtoanotherschooldeathordisshyabilityinvoluntaryterminationretirementorotherreasonsseeforexampleBillingsly2004Boe1990HaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988andGrissmerandKirby1987)WhilestateshylevelstudiesoftendonotconsiderteachermobilityasattritionbecausewithinshystatemobilitymaynotaffectfinaldemandfigureslocaladministrashytorsmustconsideritbecausetheymustfillresultingvacanciesAllishyanceforExcellentEducation(2005)estimatesthecoststolocaleducashytionagenciesnationwideofteachermobilityat$27billionResearcherswhoinvestigateattritionratesoften
distinguishldquoleaversrdquoldquomoversrdquoandldquostayersrdquo
Attritionandretentionarepresentedhereascomponentsofbothdemandandsupplybecauseolderstudiesaresplitindefiningdemandastotaldemand(withattritionorretentionasourceofsupplyonly)orasnewdemandwhichincludesattritionDoltonrsquos(2006)recentdetailedsumshymaryofteachersupplyanddemandpresentsteacherattritionandretenshytionaspartofsupply
Enrollment TeachersupplyanddemandstudiestypicallyconsiderwhetherchangestoKndash12studentenrollmentwillrequireadditionalteachersEnrollmentprojectionsforpreshykindergartenandkindergartenoftenarebasedonbirthratesorpopulationgrowthwhilethoseforlatergradesalsoconsiderpromotionratios
Teacherndashstudent ratios ThenumberofadditionalteachersneededtocomshypensateforchangesinenrollmentisbasedonthedesiredteacherndashstudentratioPolicydecisionsatstateordistrictlevelsresourcesandcollecshytivebargainingagreementsallaffectdesiredratios
Supply
Teacher supplyThesupplyofteachshyersforaschoolordistrictcomesfromthepoolofemployedteachersnewlytrainedteachersfrominshystateprogramsteacherspursuingtrainingthroughalternativeroutesteacherstrainedinotherstateswhomigratetotheareaandexperiencedteachshyerswholefttheprofessionandare
(conTinued)
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
4 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
box 1 (conTinued)
Definitionsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponents
returning(seeArnoldChoyandBobbit1993andHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer1988)Thefollowingcomponentsgointocalculatingteachersupply
Total supply = number of teachers
wherenumberofteachersincludesteachersretainedinaschoolfromthepreviousyearnewteachersfromtrashyditionalpipeline(universityorcollegeteacherpreparationprograms)newteachersfromalternativecertificationprogramsteachersfromotherstatesandformerteachersreenteringtheworkforce
Teachers retained from previous year ThelargestsourceofteachshyerstomeetdemandisteacherswhoremainwithinaschoolFromaschooladministratorrsquosperspectiveteacherretentionhasmixedcostimplicationsmdashfewerresourcesareneededformentoringorinductionofnewlyhiredteachersbutadditionalresourcesareneededforsalariesofteacherswhogainexperience
Inshystate teacher pipeline AnothersourceofteachersisrecentgraduatesofatraditionalteacherpreparationprograminaninstitutionofhighereducationinthestatewhohavebecomecertifiedStudiesconsisshytentlyfindthatonlyapercentageofgraduatesendupasteachers(HarrisCampandAdkison2003Nielson2001)leadingsomestatestoreducetheirestimatesfromthissupply
sourceby10ndash17percent(Eschetal2004Gauetal2003)
Teachers participating in alternative certification programsSince1985moststateshavedevelopedaltershynativeroutestocertificationthatallowpeopletrainedinotherfieldstobecometeachersquicklywhilesimultaneouslytakingeducationshyrelatedcoursesSomestatesreportthatasmanyas30percentofnewteacherscouldcomefromthissource(Feistritzer2008)
Teachers certified in other states Somestatesespeciallythosewithhighpopulationgrowthratesmakeiteasyforteacherscertifiedinotherstatestoteachinthestate(forexampleEschetal2004)througheitherreciprocshyityagreementswithotherstatesorstreamlinedcertificationThiscanbeasubstantialsourceofsupply(forexample61percentofnewlyhiredteachersinMarylandin2007werefromoutofstateMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation2008)
Reserve poolteachers reentering the profession TheldquoreservepoolrdquocomprisescertificatedteacherswhoarewillingandabletoteachbutarenotteachingThepoolincludesthosewhohavenevertaughtandthosewholefttheprofessiontopursueotheremploymentopportunitiestocareforfamilymembersortorecoverfromillnessorinjuryThechallengeinestimatingsupplyistodeterminehowmanyofthesecertificatedteachersarewillingtoteachOneindicatorfor
assessingthispoolofformerteachersisthenumberofpeoplewholdquoreenterrdquotheworkforceeachyear
Notes1 Economistsoftenexamineteacherdeshy
mandasafunctionofeconomicfiscalanddemographicfactorssuchasavailshyableresourcesandthecostsofteachers(HussarandBailey2008)Forteachersupplyeconomistsoftenexaminenotjustthenumbersofindividualswillingandqualifiedtoteach(Dolton2006)butalsofactorsrelatedtodecisionsonenteringorremainingintheprofessionmadeatdifferenttimes(forexampleoncertificationrequirementsteacherpaycomparedwithpayforotherprofesshysionsandteacherpensionsystems)StudiesbyBoydetal2005CostrellandPodgursky(2008)DouglasandBird(1985)HanushekKainandRivkin(2004)andPodgurskyandSpringer(2008)providejustaglimpseoftheworkdonefromaneconomicperspective
2 Onanationallevelthenumbersofteachersfoundinthe10shyyearforecastspublishedannuallybyNCESinProjecshytions of Education Statisticsarenotestimatesofdemand(HussarandBailey2008)Whileforecastspriorto1991inshycludedestimatesofteachersupplyanddemand(withdemandforecastsbasedonenrollmentprojectionschangesinteachershystudentratiosandaconstantattritionrate)demandforecastswerediscontinuedin1991followingcritishycismofthedemandprojectionsbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesCombinshyingelementsofprevalenceandmarketmodelsprojectionsofthenumberofteachersaremadeeachyearbasedonpastandpresentenrollmentdatateacherndashstudentratiosstateeducationrevenuereceiptsandotherteachersalshyaryinformationTheProjectionsseriesdoesnotprovidestateshyspecificforecastsofnumbersofteachers
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
advanTageS and diSadvanTageS of conducTing comprehenSive Teacher Supply and demand STudieS 5
Someresearchersexaminingtheimbalancebeshytweenteachersupplyanddemandfocusonsingleindicatorssuchasthenumberofunderpreparedteachers(teachingunderemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsteachingoutoffieldorservingaslongshytermsubstitutes)andthenumberofunfilledvacancies(vacanciesthatcouldnotbefilledwithafullylicensedteacher)Therationaleisthatwhenlocaleducationagenciescollectivelyfindthepoolofqualifiedapplicantsinsufficientfortheopenteachingpositionsinagivenfield(demandexceedssupply)thepositionswilleitherremainopen(avacancy)orschoolswillstaffthepositionwithsomeonewhoislessthanfullyqualified
advanTages and disadvanTages of conducTing coMpRehensive TeacheR supply and deMand sTudies
Comprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudshyieshavebothadvantagesanddisadvantages
Advantages
WhilethemainpurposeofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddemandstudiesmaybetoidentifyteachingfieldsorgeographicregionsordistrictswheresupplyisnotmeetingdemandthesestudiesserveotherfunctionsaswellTheycanrevealtheseverityofshortagesandprovidediagnosticinformationonwhichsourcesofteachersupplyarecontributingtotheshortagesSuchstudiescaninformplanningandcoordinationbetweenastatersquosKndash12educationsystemandteachertrainshyinginstitutionsandguidepolicydevelopment(forexamplepoliciesonteacherretentionincentivestoattractpeopletoteachingalternativeroutestocertificationsimplificationofproceduresforoutshyofshystateteacherstoobtaincertificatesandteacherpensionsystems)Thestudiescanhelpinevaluatshyingpoliciesorprogramsaswell
Thedesireforamultifunctionalteachersupplyanddemandstudy(onethatidentifiesshortshyageareasandalsoaidsinplanningpolicydevelopmentandevaluation)isbettermetby
states that forecast
teacher supply and
demand components
give themselves extra
time to make appropriate
policy adjustments
incorporatingestimatesofsupplyshyanddemandshyrelatedcomponentsinastudythanbyrelyingonasingleindicatorofteachershortageSuchmulticomponentstudshyiesarereferredtointhisreportascomprehensive studiesofteachersupplyanddemand
StatesthatforecastteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsgivethemselvesextratimetomakeappropriatepolicyadjustmentsStatescandeshyterminetheaccuracyoftheirforecastmodelsbycalculatingthepercentageerroraveragepercentshyageerrorandmeanabsolutepercentageerroroftheseprojections
Disadvantages
ThedownsideofconductingcomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudiesisthecostinstateeducationagencystafftimeandresourcesStateeducationagenciesthatwanttogatherinforshymationregularlyfromschoolsandlocaleducationagenciesmustfirstcreateadatacollectionprotocolandcommunicatetheprotocoltoschoolorlocaleducationagencypersonnelTheymustrunchecksofrespondentstoensurethatformsorprotocolsarebeingcompletedasintendedStateeducationagenciesalsoneedtodesignbuildandpopulatetheappropriatedatabases3
WhileestablishingaroutinedatacollectionprocessisaoneshytimecosttherearealsoannualcostsassociatedwithperformingacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudyInparticularstatesmustcleanverifyandstorethedataandperformtherelevantanalyses
TocomplywithfederalandstatelawsthatdirectastatersquoschiefstateschoolofficertodetermineteachershortageareasandreportthemtothelegisshylatureandtheUSDepartmentofEducationmanystatesuseindividualindicatorsofteachershortagethatrequirelittlelabororexpensetoobtainand
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
6 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
analyzeOnesuchindicatoristhenumberofnewemergencylicensesissuedtolocaleducationagenshycies(Lauritzen1988USDepartmentofEducation1989)Therationaleisthatschoolsthatareunshyabletofindfullylicensedteachersforaparticularcoursemightapplyforanemergencylicense(orconditionalpermitorwaiver)forateacherwholacksthecertificateorendorsementforthatsubjectareaCampeauandAppleby(1987)identifythenumberofbudgetedunfilledteachervacanciesasanothersingleindicatorforteachershortageCalculatingthenumberofemergencylicensesornumberofunfilledvacanciesperteachingfieldcangivestateeducationagenciestheinformationneededtocomplywithfederalcodesHoweverstudiesrelyingonsingleindicatorsfailtoprovidestateeducationagencieswithinformationonwheretotargetpolicyadjustments
Thetradeoffsbetweencostsandrichnessofinforshymationbecomeapparentwhenlookingattheapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemand
thathavebeenadoptedbyMidwestRegionstatesassummarizedinthenextsection
TeacheR supply and deMand Models used in MidWesT Region sTaTes
ThisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquomethodoloshygiesforestimatingandforecastingcomponentsofteachersupplydemandandshortageisbasedonreportspublishedbythestates(oronresearchsummariessharedbystateeducationagencystaffforthisprojectseeappendixB)andoninformashytiongatheredthroughinterviewswithstateeducashytionagencystaff(orcontractors)whoperformedthestudies(ninepeoplewereinterviewedseeapshypendixC)Box2describesthemethodologyusedtoidentifystateapproachesThissectionprovidesstateshybyshystatedescriptionsofthetypesofdataanddatasourcesusedtoassessteachersupplyanddeshymandineachstatersquosmostrecentreportinformashytionfromintervieweesonthepurposeandcontext
box 2
Studymethods
ThestudysoughttoobtainallteachersupplyanddemandresearchreportsproducedbyMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciessinceJanuary12000MostofthereportswereobtainedbysearchingstateeducashytionagencywebsitesandfollowshyingupwithstateeducationagencypersonnelusuallythestaffpersonlistedinthereportThesepeoplewerecontactedtodeterminewhetherthereportsrepresentedtheentiretyofworkthatthestateeducationagencyhaddoneonteachersupplyanddemandandtoidentifythebestpersontointerviewaboutthestatersquosapproachtostudyingteachersupplyanddemandIntheonestatewithnosupplyanddemandreportsonthestateeducationagencywebsitethe
contactpersonsharedacopyoftheresearchsummarywhichisgenerallyavailableonlywithintheagencyTherespondentforthatstatealsoverifiedthattheresearchsummaryproducedeachyearhadthesameformatandpresentedthesameanalysesasthoserunonthemostrecentlycollecteddataIntwostatesthecontactpeoplerecommendedinterviewingindepenshydentcontractorsandfollowingupwiththestateeducationagencywithotherquestionsIftherewereaddishytionalreportscopieswererequested
ForeachreportorresearchsummaryobtainedtheresearchteamlistedthetypesofdatasourcesandanalysesCategoriesofsourcesandanalysesemergedfromthisprocessTwostaffpeoplereviewedallthereportsanddeterminedwhichcategoriesofdatasourcesandanalyseswouldbe
includedThesedocumentreviewerswereconsistentmorethan99percentofthetimeThedocumentreviewersrsquocodingswerevalidatedthroughstateeducationagencyrespondentsrsquodescripshytionsoftheireffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandThecategoriesarepresentedintable1inthereport
Astructuredprotocolwasusedfortheinterviews(seeappendixC)butinterviewersprobedformoreinformashytionwhennecessaryTheinterviewsfocusedonthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandthatweremostprevalentintheliteratureonthetopic(seebox1)Howevertheresearchteamalsoaskedwhetherthestateeducashytionagencyconductedotherresearchactivitiesoranalysesrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandthatmightnotapshypearinthereportspostedontheweborsharedwiththeresearchteam
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table 1
data examined in most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
data source and component State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
analysis of state data
Demand components
number of job postings on state web site
expected student enrollments
demographics of current workforce
a crossshylocal education agency mobility
crossshyfield mobility
Teacher attritionretention rate year to year all teachers
Teacher attritionretention rate new teacher survival over time
retirementage of workforce
Supply components
new certificateslicenses issued inshystate
new certificateslicenses issued teachers from other states
number of reentries
b number of completers traditional programs
number of completers alternate certification
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining certificates)
General indicators of supply-demand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield teachers longshyterm substitutes
number of vacancies in fall
local education agency administratorsrsquo impressions of supply
Surveysspecial data collectionsc
Demand components
Surveys of completers outmigration
Surveys of completers attrition
Supply components
d Survey of teacher preparation institutions on program completers
Survey of completers pipeline yield
local education agency surveys applicants per vacancy
General indicators of supplyndashdemand balance
local education agency surveys on emergency licenses or conditional permits
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
overall estimates demand no no no yese yes no no
aIncludesmobilityacrosseducatorfields
bIncludesteacherstrainedthoughtraditionaloralternativeroutes
cAllthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesforthesurveysandcaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedataoranyanalysesofthecharacteristicsofnonresponse
dThereturnratesonthesesurveysareclearlylistedinthereportsanddisplaysoftrenddataclearlyindicateyearsforwhichreturnrateswerelessthan100percent
eEnrollmentbased
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
7 Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
8 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state arsquos analysis of
teacher supply and
demand focuses on the
number of emergency
licenses requested
each year by all local
education agencies
ofthereportsandcostestimatesforthemostrecentreportineachstateTable1summarizesthedatasourcesandcomponentsofthereportsbystate
IngeneralthenumberofdistinctdataelementsusedinMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapproachestoassessshy
ingteachersupplyanddemandvariesconsiderablyStudiesrangedfromanalysesofemergencylicensestomultimethodapproachesincludingcountsofteachersldquosurvivingrdquoovertimewithinteachershyleveldatabasesandsurveysoflocaleducationagencypersonnelteacherpreparationinstitutionsandcompletersofteachereducationprogramsOnlytwostatesattemptedtoforecastdemandforteachers
Tokeepthefocusonthemethodologiesusedbythestateeducationagenciesthenamesofstatesthatuseaparticularapproachareomitted(seetables1and2)ThemodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesarepresentedfromleastcomprehensivetomostcomprehensive
StateAmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits
StateAhadnopubliclyavailablereportonteachersupplyanddemandThestatedoesconductanannualanalysistomeetfederalrequirementsbut
theinformationmdashthreepiechartsandatablemdashispresentedonlytoseniorstateeducationagencyadshyministratorsandthechiefstateschoolofficerThemostrecenttwoshypagedatasummarywassharedwithprojectstaffforthisstudy
Information from state education agency databases TheannualanalysisfocusesonthenumberofemergencylicensesrequestedeachyearbyalllocaleducationagenciesAgenciesmustapplyforthesepermitsandthepermitsdatabaseiscontinuouslyupdatedTheanalysisbreaksdowntheemergencylicensesbyteacherfieldlocaleducationagencyandgeographicsetting(urbanruralorsuburshyban)Accordingtothestaterespondentthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdatarelatedtoothercomponentsofsupplyanddemand(suchasenrollshymentsteachersobtainingcertificationthroughalternativeroutesandnumbersofcompletersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprograms)Howshyeverthatinformationisusedtomeetotherfederalreportingrequirements(suchasTitleIIreports)ratherthantoprovideamorecomprehensivepicshytureofteachersupplyanddemandinthestate
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentstatedthattheannualanalysesareconductedtoidentifyteachershortagefieldstocomplywithfederalcodesandregulationsTherespondentaddedthatnootherworkisdoneonthetopicsinceteachersupplyanddemandarenot
Table 2
legislative requirements and costs associated with most recent teacher supply and demand studies conducted by Midwest Region states 2007 and 2008
additional information State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
State law no yes yes no yes yes no
estimated cost hours 025 hoursa 10 hours across 5 staffa
50 hours across 3ndash4 staffa
contract amount
033 fullshytime equivalent
cost listed in report
billed on contract
estimated cost dollars $10 lt$500 lt$4000 $27500b lt$35000 $25137 $30000b
NoteCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohumanresourcesoffices
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 9
presentlyahighshypriorityforthestateeducationagencyHoweveragencystaffdopaymoreattenshytiontoteachershortageswhenstatepolicymakersareconsideringnewlegislation
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatittookabout15minutestoperformtheanalysiseachyearBasedontherespondentrsquosannualsalaryandbenefitsin2007thattranslatestoabout$104
StateBmdashanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandnumberofprogramcompleters
StateBconductsanalysesthataresimilartothoseofStateAHowevertheshortageareasaremadepubliceachyearinaoneshyortwoshypagememothatisalsosenttotheUSDepartmentofEducationtocomplywithfederalregulationsandtothestatelegislaturetocomplywithastatelaw
Information from state education agency dashytabasesStateBmonitorsteachersupplyanddemandusinganalysesofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstoidentifyfieldsandlocaleducationagenciesexperiencingshortagesAslocaleducationagenciesreportchallengesinhirshyingfullylicensedteachersforopenpositionsthedatabaseiscontinuallyupdated
TherespondentnotedthatthestateeducationagencycollectsotherdatarelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandcomponentsbutthatthesedataelementsarenotusedtoexamineteacherstaffingpatternsForexamplethestatecollectsdataontheannualnumberofcompletersfromteachereducationinstitutionsinthestateandinformstheinstitutionsaboutareasofshortageHowevertheinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsandonnumberofprogramcompletersisnotcombinedintoacomprehensivereportonteachersupplyanddemandthatismadepublic
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeofthestateeducationagencyanalysisofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitswastocomplywithfederalregulationsandstatelawStatelawrequires
identificationofshortageareassothatconditionsforreemploymentofretiredteacherscanbeestablishedTheresponshydentalsostatedthattherewasageneralbeliefatthestateeducationagencythathighereducationinshy
state b monitors teacher
supply and demand
using analyses of
emergency licenses or
conditional permits to
identify fields and local
education agencies
experiencing shortages
stitutionsinthestatewereproducingmanymoreteachersthantherewereteachingpositionsThustheagencydidnotconshysidertheissueofteachersupplyanddemandtobeahighpriorityHowevertherespondentwasunabletopointtoaparticulardatasourcetosupportthebeliefinanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandotherthananecdotalsourcesindicatingthatmostnewteacherstrainedinthestatewereforcedtoleavethestatetoobtainteachingpositions
Cost estimate Therespondentstatedthatthedataanalysistakesabouttwotothreehoursandthatadditionaltimeisrequiredforthedatabaseadministratorsandlicenseapprovalstaffbringingthetotaltoabout10hoursThecombinedcostsofsalaryandbenefitswasestimatedatlessthan$500
StateCmdashemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsprogramcompletersandjobvacancies
StateCrsquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyismadepubliceachyearinatwoshypagememothatliststeachingfieldswithshortagesandbrieflydescribesthesourcesusedtodeterminetheshortageareas
Information from state education agency databases ThememobasestheshortageareasonnumbersofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsissuednumberandfrequencyofjobpostingsandproshyjectednumbersofcompletersfromteacherpreparashytionprogramsTherespondentclarifiedhowthesedataelementswereusedtoidentifyshortageareas
[Number of job openings (by endorsement field) + number of conditional permits (by endorsement field)] Number of licensed teachers with endorsements in the field
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
10 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
ThedataforthedenominatorcomefromthestatersquoslicensedatabasewhichiscontinuallyupdatedTherespondentstatedthatanendorsementareaisidentifiedashavingashortagewhenthequotientisgreaterthan5percentStateeducationagencystaffmembersthenidentifythenumberofprogramcompletersforthatendorsementarea(asreportedannuallybyteacherpreparationprograms)todeshyterminewhetherthenumberofprospectiveteachshyerswillbesufficienttofillthevacantpositionsThesecomparisonsofvacanciesandnumbersofprospectiveteachersaremadewithoutexplicitdecisionrulesIfthestateeducationagencystaffconsiderthenumbersofnewteachersasadequatetheymayremovethatendorsementfieldfromthelistAdditionalendorsementareasmaybeaddedtotheshortagelistifmembersofthestatersquosteachershylishycensingboardhearofdifficultiesinhiringparticushylartypesofteachersduringinformalconversationswithschoolanddistrictadministrators
TherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencyalsocollectsdataonstudentenrollmentteacherretirementandteacherattritionwhichareoftenlistedascomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughthestateeducationagencydoeslookatlongshytermtrendsamongthesecomponentsandinformsteacherpreparationinstitutionsofthepossibleneedtoincreaseteacherproductionbasedonthesetrendstherespondentstatedthatdatafromthesecomponentsarenotcompiledwithinacomprehensiveresearchsummaryorformalreport
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentconfirmedthatthepurposeoftheannuallistingofshortageareasistofulfillfederal
requirementsandstateadministrashytivecodeThestateadministrativestate crsquos teacher supply coderequiresthatthechiefstateand demand study is schoolofficerannuallyidentifymade public each year in teachershortageareasforthepurshya two page memo that posesofforgivenessofstateshysupshylists teaching fields with portedcollegeloansThestatecodeshortages and briefly doesnotspecifyhowshortageareasdescribes the sources aretobedeterminednordoesitreshyused to determine quireanyinformationbeyondthatthe shortage areas requiredtomeetfederalcodes
Cost estimateTherespondentestimatedthatabout50hoursacrossthreetofourstateeducashytionagencystaffwereneededtoproducethelistofshortageareasThattranslatestoroughly$4000includingadjustmentsmadebythestatersquosteachershylicensingboardandchiefstateschoolofficer
StateDmdashfocusonmultiplecomponentsthroughanalysisofstatedatabases
StateDhasattemptedtoconductregularteachersupplyanddemandstudiesthattracksupplyanddemandcomponentsandincludespecificanalysesofinteresttopolicymakersHoweverthestatehasbeenunabletoconductthesestudiesregularly(studieswereconductedin200220042005and2007)ortoestablishaconsistentsetofcomposhynentstotrackovertimeUnlikeolderreportsthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandreport(2007)containsonlyanalysesofdatafromstatedatabases
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesThedatabasesusedforthemostrecentteachersupplyanddemandstudyincludedstudentenrollmentdata(basedonannualenrollmentcountssuppliedbyalllocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcommunityschoolseachfall)teacherworkforcedatafromthestateeducationdatamanagementsystem(populatedbyannualreportssuppliedbylocaleducationagenciesandcharterandcomshymunityschoolseachfall)andstateteacherreshytirementdata(continuouslyupdated)Withthesedatabasesthoseconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudywereabletoreportonseveralcharacteristicsofdemandenrollment(suppleshymentedbypopulationshybased10shyyearenrollmentprojectionsand10shyyeardemandprojections)teacherattritionrates(survivalofteachersyearshytoshyyearandovermultipleyears)andretirementtrends(basedonteachersrsquoagesandretirementratetrenddataintheretirementdatabases)Thereportalsoincludesadetailedstudyofteachermobilitytrends(identifyingthetypesoflocaleducationagenciesthatteachersareleavingandgoingto)
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 11
Therespondentforthisstate(anindependentcontractorwhohadworkedonseveralofthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudies)statedthatthemostrecentreportwasbasedondataavailabilitywithinthestateeducationagencyTherespondentindishycatedthatforprevioussupplyanddemandstudiesthecontractorrsquosresearchteamhadaccesstoothertypesofsupplycomponentdata(suchascountsofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestatesurveydatafromlocaleducationagenciesonteachervacanciessurveysofsamplesofteachersintheldquoreservepoolrdquo)butthatthestateeducationagencywasunabletoobtainupdatedinformationonprogramcompletersfromthestatersquoshighereducationgovernancebodyandwasnolongersupportingthesurveywork
Synthesis of information in reportStateDrsquosfindshyingsaredisaggregatedbyteachersubjectareabutthesubjectareaslistedarebroaderthanthoseinotherstatesForexampleStateDpresentstheattritionandmobilityratesofldquoscienceteachersrdquobutdoesnotdisaggregatethefindingsfurther(forexampleforteachersofchemistryphysicsandbiology)Thestatersquosmostrecentreportincludesdemandestimatesandsomeestimatesofsupplycomponents(attritionandmobilityratestotalworkforcenumbers)butteacherdemandandsupplyestimatesarenotreportedatthesamelevelofaggregationThisinconsistencycombinedwiththelackofinformationoncertainkeycomponentsofteachersupply(programcompletersmigrationofteachersfromoutofstatereentryofteachers)makesitchallengingtoascertainfromthereportalonewhetherthesupplyofteachersinvariousteachingfieldsisadequatetomeetfuturedemand
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwasunawareofanyotherteachersupplyanddemandworkconductedbythestateeducationagencyorofanystudiesplannedforthenearfuture(confirmedthroughanindependentquerywithaseniorshylevelcontactinthestateedushycationagency)Therespondentthoughtthatthesestudieswereconductednottocomplywithanystatecodeorstatute(confirmedbyanindependentsearchofstatestatutesandadministrativecodes)
butrathertorespondtoaninquiryfromthestateboardofeducationThechiefstateschoolofficerexpandedontheboardrsquosrequestbypressingthestateeducationagencytodeveloparegularreportshyingsystemonteacher
state d has attempted
to conduct regular
teacher supply and
demand studies that
track supply and demand
components and include
specific analyses of
interest to policymakers
supplyanddemandDespitethestatechief rsquoswishestheagencyhasnotsettledonaconsistentsetofdataelementsonteachersupplyanddemandtoanalyzeregularlyOnlytheanalysisofteacherattritionrateshasremainedconsistentacrossreports
Cost estimateTherespondentalsoprovidedthecontractamountsforworkoneachofthesupplyanddemandstudiesForthefirstyearrsquosreporttheevaluationfirmbilledthestateeducationagencyroughly$40000toperformthestudySubsequentstudieswerelesscostlytothestatebecausetheevaluationfirmhadbecomefamiliarwiththedatabasesandhadalreadydevelopedtheanalyshysisstrategyMoreoverthestateeducationagencyandstateboardofeducationhadscaledbacktheanalysestofocusononlythemostpolicyshyrelevantcomponentsThelatersupplyanddemandstudshyiescostbetween$20000and$30000thelatestreportcost$27500Thesecostestimatesdonotincludethetimeofthestateeducationagencycomputerprogrammerstoretrievethedataorthatofotherstateeducationagencystafftosupervisethecontractorrsquoswork
StateEmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithimpressionsoflocaleducationagencyadministratorsandsurveyofhighereducationinstitutions
UnliketheapproachestoteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiespresentedtothispointtheremainshyingMidwestRegionstateshaveconsistentlyemshyployedothermethodstocomplementtheanalysisofinformationfromdatabasesmaintainedbythestateeducationagencyTheteachersupplyanddeshymandstudiesconductedbyStateEinparticular
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
12 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
state ersquos annual supply
and demand report
includes analyses based
on databases containing
teacher records student
enrollments teacher
license information
and local education
agency information on
unfilled positions and
impressions of areas
of teacher shortage
includeanannualsurveyofallteacherpreparationinstitutionsinthestate
Information from state educashytion agency databasesStateErsquosannualsupplyanddemandreportincludesanalysesbasedondatashybasescontainingteacherrecordsstudentenrollments(bothupshydatedeachfallusinginformationfrommandatoryreportsfromalllocaleducationagencies)teacherlicenseinformation(updated
thestateeducationagencyrsquosteacherion)andlocaleducationagencynunfilledpositionsandimpressions
continuallybylicensingdivisinformationoofareasofteachershortage(collectedeachfall)Tenshyyearprojectionsofenrollmentareprovidedbasedonliveshybirthstatistics(sharedbythestatersquosdepartmentofpublichealth)andcurrentschoolenrollmentsThesedatasourcesareusedtoreportrawenrollmentnumbersandnumbersofteachshyersretainedfromyeartoyear(bothcomponentsofdemand)andworkforcegrowthnumberoflicensesissuednumberofreenteringteachersandnumberofteachercandidatesinthepipeline(componentsofsupply)
TherespondentnotedthatalthoughthestateeducationagencyhasaccesstosomeothercomposhynentssuchasteachersrsquoagesforestimatingnumshybersofteacherslikelytoretireinthenearfutureitanalyzesthatinformationonlywhenrequestedbytheboardofeducationAndseveralothercomposhynentsofteachersupplyanddemandforwhichthestateeducationagencyhasdata(suchaslongshytermattritionratesforteachers)arenolongerincludedinsupplyanddemandreportsbecauseofresourceconstraints
Information from the surveyInadditiontotheregularlycollectedandmandateddatabaseeleshymentsanalyzedfortheannualreportStateEalsoincludesanalysesofnumbersofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsfromitsanshynualsurveyofhighereducationinstitutionsThe
respondentnotedthatresponseratesonsurveysofteacherpreparationinstitutionsfluctuatebetween68percentand100percent5Thevariableresponseratesunderminetheutilityoftheprogramcomshypleternumbersovertime
Synthesis of information in report StateErsquosannualreportincludesthreetypesofsynthesesofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentsacomparisonofthenumberofnewlicensesissued(byteachingfield)inthepreviousyearandthenumberofteachshyershiredinthosefieldsinthefollowingyeartalliesofthenumberofunfilledpositionsbyteachingfieldandsummariesofratingsbylocaleducationagencyadministratorsoftheadequacyofthesupshyplyofteachersforvariousteachingfieldsConsisshytencyacrossthesethreeindicesofteachershortageisdemonstratedwithsidebysidecomparisonsdisaggregatedbyteachingfieldThereportalsoinshycludesfourshyyearprojectionsofteachersneededbyteachingfieldbasedonthenumberofneweducashytorshiredovertheprevioussevenyearsratherthanonprojectionsofschoolenrollment
WhilethesidebysidecomparisonshelpshowtheconsistencyoftheinformationtheinformationonvariouscomponentsisoftendisaggregateddifferentlymakingitdifficulttoascertainwhethershortageswithinteachingfieldsarerelatedtotrendsinvariouscomponentsForexampleinforshymationonsomecomponentsislistedatabroadlevel(numberofreenteringeducatorsbyldquoadminshyistrativerdquoldquoinstructionalrdquoldquoothercertifiedstaffrdquoandldquoschoolservicepersonnelrdquocategories)Otherinformationisdisaggregatedfurther(numberofcompletersisbrokendownintoldquoearlychildhoodrdquoldquoelementaryrdquoldquosecondaryrdquoandldquoKshy12rdquoprograms)ordisaggregatedbyteachingfield(shortageareasbyteachingfield)
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentwhohasworkedonthestatersquossupplyanddemandstudiessince2000statedthatthestateeducationagencyhasbeeninterestedinconductingothertypesofforecastsbutthatbudgetaryconstraintshavepreventedtheagencyfromdoingso
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 13
TherespondentconfirmedthatthestateeducashytionagencyisrequiredbyadministrativecodetopresentthisreporttothelegislaturebyJanuary1ofeachyearThestatecoderequiresthestateeducationagencytoreportthesupplyanddemandforeducators(teachersadministratorssupportstaff)byfieldcontentareaandleveltoreportstateandregionalanalysesofoversupplyandundersupplyofeducatorsbyfieldcontentareaandlevelandtoprojectareasofhighandlowdeshymandforeducatorsThestatecoderequiresamorecomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudythanthatneededtocomplywithfederalreportingrequirements(aslistedinappendixA)ThestatecodeappearstooffersomeroomforinterpretashytionTherespondentindicatedthatintheinitialyearsfollowingenactmentofthestatecodewhenthestateeducationagencyhadmorebudgetaryandpersonnelresourcesthesupplyanddemandstudiesweremorecomprehensive(forexampletheyincludedprojectedretirementsandlongshytermstudiesofattrition)Howeverwithleanerbudgetsthestateeducationagencyhasscaledbackthereportstofocusjustontheanalysesnecessarytomeetthestatersquosadministrativecode
Cost estimatePreparingthereporttakesapproxishymatelyoneshythirdoftherespondentrsquostimeThecostofthemostrecentreportfactoringinsalarybenefitsandreviewofthefindingsisestimatedatlessthan$35000Thisestimateexcludesthecostsofthesurveys
StateFmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabasecombinedwithsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
StateFproducesitsteachersupplyanddemandreporteverytwoyearsThesereportsincludedatafromstateeducationagencydatabasesinformashytiongatheredannuallybythestatechapteroftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesofTeacherEdushycation(AACTE)andinformationfromasuppleshymentalsurveyoflocaleducationagencies
Information from state education agency datashybases and other state data sourcesAmongthe
dataelementsdrawnfromStateFrsquosdatabasesareteacherstaffingdata(updatedeachfall)andteacherlicensedata(continuallyupdated)Dataonconditionalpermitsorwaiversarefromthestatersquosregulatorybodyonteachertraining(continuallyupdatedaslocaleducationagenciesrequestconditionalpermitsorwaivers)ThestatersquosAACTEchaptersharesdatacollectedannuallyfromteacherpreparationinstitutionsonnumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprograms(bysubjectarea)
Thesedatasourcesprovideinformationonteachersupply(programcompletersnumberofinitiallicensesfrominshystateshyandoutshyofshystateshytrainedteachersnumberofunexpiredlicenses)bylicenshysureareaOnthedemandsidethebiennialsupplyanddemandreportincludesananalysisofteacherretirementovertime
NotfoundinthereportisdatabaseinformationonstudentenrollmentwhichisoftenusedforunderstandingpastpresentandfuturedemandforteachersRatherthanusingactualcountsofstudentstoroundoutthepictureofteacherdeshymandthereportreliesonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoperceptionsofdemandforteachshyersandofthesupplyshydemandbalance(asgatheredinthebiennialsurveyoflocaleducationagencyadministrators)
Information from surveysLocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquopercepshytionsofthesupplyshydeshy state frsquos biennial teacher mandbalanceforvarious supply and demand teachingfieldsarejust report reports include onetypeofinformation data from state education requestedonthebiennial agency databases surveyoflocaleducation information gathered agencyadministrators annually by the state Theseperceptionsare chapter of the american anchoredearlierinthe association of colleges surveybyitemsasking of Teacher education administratorstoreport and information from a thenumberofteachervashy supplemental survey of canciesandapplicantsper local education agencies vacancybylicensurearea
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
14 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Thereportmakesclearthelimitationsofthesurveydataincludingthemarginalresponserate(60percent)Howevernostandardsarepresentedforjudgingthequalityofthedatagiventhisresponserate
Synthesis of information in reportManyofthefindingsinthestatersquosteachersupplyanddemandstudyarepresentedaccordingtothelicensureareasthatlocaleducationagencyandcharterschooladministratorsperceiveasexperiencingshortagesLicensureareasexperiencingteachersurpluses(accordingtoadministratorsrsquopercepshytions)arelistedaswell
ThereportpresentsadetailedexaminationofthenumberofnewteacherswhoretaintheirpositionsovertimebyregionIncludedwiththeretentionandattritioninformationisasummaryofteachshyersrsquoreasonsforleavingHoweverneitherthegenshyeralretentioninformationnordataonteachersrsquoreasonsforleavingaredisaggregatedbylicensureareaFinallythereportprovidescountsofemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyregionandyearTheemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitinformationispresentedbylicensureareaswiththelargestshortagesasreportedbydistrictandcharterschooladministrators
Thereportalsoclearlypresentsthelimitationsofthesupplyanddemandstudyincludinglimitashytionsofthestatersquosregularteacherstaffingdatacollectionsystemofadministratorperceptionsofteachershortageareasandofdistrictandcharterschoolsurveydatabecauseofthelowresponse
rateAnotherlimitationisthelackofconsistencyofreportingonThe report for state g componentsbythesamecategoryincludes regularly ofanalysisTeachersupplyandcollected data data retirementinformationispreshygathered from a survey of sentedbylicensurefieldwhilelocal education agencies retentionandemergencylicensesin the state and data from orconditionalpermitsandwaivera survey of graduates of informationisnotFinallywhilethe public and private thereportsynthesizessomeinforshyteacher preparation mation(forexampleitpresentsprograms in the state thenumberofteacherretirements
alongsidethenumberofnewlicensesgrantedfortheareasofteachershortagegivinganideaoftherateatwhichdepartingteachersarebeingreplacedbynewlytrainedteachers)itdoesnotsynthesizeallthecomponentsintoalargerpictureofteachershortagesbylicensurearea
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose TherespondentsforStateFweretheauthorsofthemostrecentreportAccordingtorespondentstatementsandinformationinthereportstheformatanddataincorporatedinthereportshaveremainedconsistentsincethestatelegislaturepassedthestatuterequiringthesebiennialreportsThestatutestipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficermustsurveyalllocaleducationagencieswithinthestatetoascertainpatternsofearlyretirementofteachersandshortagesofregularandsubstituteteachersbysubjectareaandregionThereportmustalsodescribetheprogressoflocaleducationagenciesinhiringteachersandsubstishytuteteachersintheareasofshortageandpresentfiveshyyearprojectionsofteacherdemandforeachlocaleducationagencyTheinformationrequiredbystatestatutegoesbeyondtheidentificationofshortageareasrequiredbyfederalcode
Cost estimateStatestatutesrequirethatmandatedreportspresentthecostsincurredbytheagencyinproducingthereportThemostrecentteachersupshyplyanddemandreportlistedacostof$2513794Accordingtotherespondentsthatcostincludesallthestafftime(andassociatedbenefits)butnotthecostsofadministeringthelocaleducationagencysurveyHoweverthosecostswereminimizedbyintroducingthesurveytolocaleducationagenciesbyemailandconductingthesurveyonline
StateGmdashmultimethodapproachanalysisofstatedatabaseinformationcombinedwithsurveydatacollectedfromlocaleducationagenciesandprogramcompleters
ThereportforStateGalsoincludesregularlycollecteddata(collectedannuallyfromalllocaleducationagenciesandincludedinstateeducationagencydatabases)datagatheredfromasurvey
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Teacher Supply and demand modelS uSed in midWeST region STaTeS 15
oflocaleducationagenciesinthestateanddatafromasurveyofgraduatesofthepublicandprishyvateteacherpreparationprogramsinthestate
Information from state education agency datashybasesStatedatabasesprovideinformationonseveralteacherdemandcomponentsincludingyeartoyearteacherattritionratesattritionratesofcohortsofnewteachersovertimenumberofteachersswitchingfromspecialeducationtogenshyeraleducation(crossshyfieldmobility)andtheagesoftheteacherworkforceOnthesupplysidetheresearchersreportdatafromhighereducationinshystitutionsonthenumberofcompletersofteacherpreparationprogramsbyendorsementareaandthenumberofnewalternativelycertifiedteachersTheanalysisofstatedataalsoincludesthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbyteachingfield
AlthoughthestateeducationagencyhastheinshyformationthesupplyanddemandreportdoesnotincludeananalysisofstudentenrollmenttrendsNordoesthereportprovideinformationonteachshyersreenteringtheprofessionaftertimeaway
Information from surveysTosupplementtheanalysesofstatedatabasestheresearchersalsoconductasurveyoflocaleducationagenciesinthestateonthenumberofvacanciesbyteachingfieldsduringthepreviousyearnumberofapplicantsforthevacanciesandnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsrequestedbyteachingfieldLocaleducationagencypersonnelrespondingtothesurveyalsorateteacherendorsementareasonafiveshypointscalefromldquoextremeshortagerdquotoldquoextremeoversupplyrdquo
Theresearchersconductingtheteachersupplyanddemandstudyalsoconductasurveyofa15percentprobabilitysampleofthemostrecentcoshyhortofgraduatesofteacherpreparationprogramsinthestateandfollowshyupsurveysofthosewhorespondedtothepreviousfourannualcompletersurveysThatsurveygathersinformationonproshygramcompletersrsquocurrentemployment(teachingornotteaching)andtypeofposition(fullshytime
unlike some of the other
state reports reviewed
here state grsquos report
summarizes most of
the data on supply and
demand components in
a consistent fashion
by teaching field
partshytimesubstitute)andwhethertheteachingpositionisinoroutsidethestateThesurveyisintendedtoprovidetheresearcherswithanotherviewofteacherattritionpipelineyieldandoutmishygrationofteachers
Theauthorsofthereportspecifytheresponseratesforthelocaleducationagencysurvey(62percent)andthesurveyofprogramcompleters(45percentforthemostrecentcohort)butprovidenoassessmentofthequalityofinformationbasedontheseresponserates6Nordotheauthorsanalyzepatternsofnonresponse
Synthesis of information in reportUnlikesomeoftheotherstatereportsreviewedhereStateGrsquosreportsummarizesmostofthedataonsupplyanddemandcomponentsinaconsistentfashionmdashbyteachingfieldAnexceptionisteacherattritionwhichisreportedbyyear(butretirementinforshymationmdashagerangesofteachersmdashisbrokendownbyteachingfield)Whileinformationisgatheredonnumerouscomponentsrelatedtoteachersupshyplyanddemandtheoverallpictureofsupplydemandandshortageinthereportispresentedastheresultsofthreeanalysesthenumberofemergencylicensesgrantedtheratioofapplicantstovacanciesreportedinthelocaleducationagencysurveyandlocaleducationagencyadministrashytorsrsquoperceptionsofexpectedsupplydemandandteachershortageareasinthecomingfiveyears
Theauthorsofthereportlayoutthelimitationsofthefindingsbasedonthequalityofthedatasourcesclarityofthestatedatacollectionsystemandprotocolsandtheprotocolsandresponseratesofthesurveys
Respondent perspectives on context and purpose Therespondentforthisstatewasoneofthereportsrsquomainauthors(acontractorwhohasbeendoingthisstatersquosannualsupplyanddemandstudysince2001)Therespondentprovidedsomecontext
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
16 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
The lack of consistency
in teacher supply and
demand forecast models
used by Midwest Region
states precluded analysis
of their accuracy
regardingthestatersquosinterestinconductingstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandAlthoughnotrequiredbystatelawthisstateeducationagencyhasconductedanannualteachersupplyanddeshymandreportforthelast29yearsTheoriginalpurposeofthese
studieswastoprovidetheinformationrequiredbytheEducationofAllHandicappedChildrenActthepredecessortotheIndividualswithDisabilishytiesEducationActof1990Sincethestateeducashytionagencyalreadyhadtocollectdataonspecialeducationteachersitdecidedtocollectthesametypesofinformationongeneraleducationteachersaswell
Theannualreportsprovidedatatrendsonvariousdemandandsupplycomponentsandthedatahavebeengatheredinaconsistentmannersince2000DuringsomeyearshoweverthestateedushycationagencyrequestedthatthecontractorsalsoinvestigateotherstaffingshyrelatedissuesForexamshyplethe2007reportincorporatedinthesurveyoflocaleducationagenciesquestionsontheimpactofstatepolicyandfundingonteacherhiringatshytritionandretirementThe2000reportincludedastudyofteachersupplyanddemandreportsforall50statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
Cost estimateTherespondentstatedthatthestateeducationagencybudgetsapproximately$40000ayearfortheteachersupplyanddemandstudyHowevertheworkinrecentyearsrequireddrawshyingonly$30000ayearfromthestatecontractThiscosttothestateincludessurveydatacollecshytionbutnotthecostsofstatedatabasemanagerstodrawthenecessarydataorthecostsofstateeducationagencystafftocoordinatetheresearchshyersrsquoeffortsorreviewdraftsofthereport
Summaryoffindings
Basedonreviewsofstatesrsquoteachersupplyanddeshymandreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencypersonnelorcontractorswhopreparethesereportsthisstudyfoundthatstatescalculateareas
ofteachershortageinparttocomplywithfederalcodesofregulations(seedescriptioninAppendixA)partBofIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducashytionActandsometimesTitleIIrequirementsundertheHigherEducationActFourMidwestRegionstateeducationagenciesarealsorequiredbystatestatuteoradministrativecodetoconductstudiesofteachersupplyanddemandTheregulashytionsintwoofthesestates(StatesBandC)aresimilartofederalregulationstheregulationsintheothertwostatesrequiremorecomprehensivestudiesAmongthethreestateswithoutstateregshyulationsrequiringateachersupplyanddemandstudyonestateconductsananalysisofemergencylicensestocomplywithfederalregulationsandaseparateanalysistocomplywithTitleIIreportshyingrequirementsTheothertwostateeducationagenciesconductmorecomprehensivestudiestoinformpolicymakers
TwostatesfocusonanalysisofthelicensureareasinwhichemergencylicensesorconditionalpershymitsarerequestedAnotherstatebasesitsstudyonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutsupplementsthosefindingswithinformationonjobpostingsonastateteacheremploymentwebsiteoncompletersofteacherpreparationinstitushytionsandoninformaldatasharingbymembersofthestatersquoslicensureregulatingboardThreestatesgobeyondwhatisrequiredbyfederalreportingrequirementsandattempttoinformstatepolicyshymakersbyconductingmorecomprehensiveanalyshysesonteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswithintheirstatesOnestateconductedmorecomprehensivestudiesinthepastbuthasscaledbackitseffortssince2004forbudgetaryreasons
ThelackofconsistencyinteachersupplyanddemandforecastmodelsusedbyMidwestReshygionstatesprecludedanalysisoftheiraccuracyOnlyonestateconsistentlyemploysaforecastingmodelofstudentenrollmentsThemeanabsolutepercentageerrorcalculatedonthreeconsistentapplicationsoffourshyyearenrollmentforecastsusedinthatstate(StateE)was1percentwhichisconshysideredldquohighlyaccuraterdquo(Lewis1982)Thatstatersquosprojectionofteacherdemandwasnotdescribed
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand 17
inenoughdetailtoassesswhetheritwasbeingconsistentlyappliedacrosstheyears
FinallytheapproachesthatMidwestRegionstatesusetoassessteachersupplyanddemandvaryconsiderablyincostModelsappliedtoobtainonlytheinformationrequiredbyfederallawsorstatestatutes(StatesABandC)wereestimatedtocostlessthan$4000(seetable2)Morecomprehenshysiveteachersupplyanddemandmodelsthataremeanttobothcomplywithfederalandstatelawsandprovidemoredetailedinformationtostatepolicymakerscost$25000ndash$35000Costshavetendedtodropovertimeasthoseconductingthestudiesgainexperiencewithstatedatabasesanddevelopastandardsetofproceduresfordrawingandanalyzingdataforeachreport
inTeRpReTing MidWesT Region sTaTe effoRTs To sTudy TeacheR supply and deMand
ThisreviewfoundthatseveralissuesaffectintershypretationsofMidwestRegionstateeffortstostudyteachersupplyanddemandincludingtwomethshyodologicalconcerns(relianceonlowshyresponsesurveydataandonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofshortages)andconsiderationofthetradeoffsimshypliedbetweenreportcomprehensivenessandcost
Cautionsaboutstudiesrsquorelianceonimpressionsdataandsurveys
DuringthisreviewofMidwestRegionstatesrsquoapshyproachestostudyingteachersupplyanddemandprojectstaffmdashandtechnicalreviewersofthisreportmdashnotedtwopotentialmethodologicalconshycernsrelianceonadministratorsrsquoimpressionsofteachersupplyandrelianceonsurveydatawhenresponseratesarelow(lessthan70percent)
ThreeoftheMidwestRegionstatesformallyaskedlocaleducationagencyadministratorstogivetheirimpressionsofteachersupplyforvariousteachshyingfieldsForeachofthesestatesadministratorsprovidedtheirimpressionofteachersupplyusingthefollowingresponseoptionsextremeshortage
slightshortagebalancenoshortageslightovershysupplyandextremeoversupply
ItisusuallyinadvisabletorelyonimpressionssuchasthesebecauseofthevariabilityamongrespondentsininterpretingtheresponsescaleActualcountdataareconsideredmorereliable(FowlerandCosenza2009)TheMidwestRegionstatesthatincludedimpressiondataintheirsupshyplyanddemandreportcompensatedfortheweakshynessofthisapproachinatleasttwowaysFirstthesestatesrequestedthatrespondentsprovideactualcountdata(numberofunfilledvacanciesnumbersofapplicantsandvacancies)beforeaskshyingthemfortheirimpressionsthusanchoringadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbythecountsalreadyprovidedSecondnoneofthesestatesreliedonimpressionsasasoleindicatorofteachershortshyageorsurplusTheyalsoreportedinformationonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsunshyfilledpositionsratiosofnewlylicensedteacherstovacanciesandapplicanttovacancyratiosFowlerandCosenza(2009)recommendthatresearchersvalidatesubjectivedataorimpressionsbycorshyrelatingthemwithmoreobjectivedataStateGprovidedvalidityinformationonlocaleducationagencyadministratorsrsquoimpressionsbyreportingastrongcorrelation(r=91)withtheapplicanttovacancyratio
AsecondmethodologicalissueconcernssurveyresponseratesSeveralresearchers(suchasManshygioneandVanNess2009)provideguidelinesfordeshy project staff and technical terminingwhenresearchshy reviewers noted two ersshouldbeconcerned potential methodological bytheamountofnonreshy concerns related to sponseMangioneand Midwest Region statesrsquo VanNessspecifythatfor approaches to studying mailsurveysresponse teacher supply and ratesover70percentare demand reliance consideredverygood on administratorsrsquo toexcellentmeaning impressions of teacher thattheyareunlikelyto supply and reliance showbiasRatesbetween on survey data when 60percentand70percent response rates are low areacceptablebutshould
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
18 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
information gathered
through interviews
indicates that the state
education agencies in
states that spent less
than $4000 annually
to generate their list of
shortage areas either
do not consider teacher
staffing to be a big
enough priority to justify
the cost of conducting
a more comprehensive
study or that they lack
guidance on how to
conduct such a study
triggeranexplorationofthecharacteristicsofnonresponseResponseratesbetween50percentand60percentmaybeacceptableprovidedthereiscorroboratinginformationshowingsimilarreshysultsFinallyresponseratesbelow50percentarenotscientificallyacceptable7
ForStatesFandGwhichsurshyveyedlocaleducationagencyadministratorsaboutvacanciesandimpressionsofshortagestheresearchersobtainedthecorroboshyratingevidenceonemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitstosupporttheresultsStateF
alsodidacursoryanalysisofnonresponsebytypeoflocaleducationagencyForStateGrsquossurveyofcompletersofteacherpreparationinstitutionswithinstatehoweverthe45percentresponserateisinthecategoryofldquonotscientifishycallyacceptablerdquobyMangioneandVanNess(2009)guidelinesAlthoughtheauthorsofthatstatereportcautionedreadersaboutthepoorresponserateandofferedsomepossibleexplanashytionsthesurveydatawereusedinthereportInsituationslikethiswhereresponseratesaresopoorpolicymakersmightbebetterservedifsuchinformationwerenotincludedintheannualreport
Comprehensivenessandcosttradeoffs
SeveralMidwestRegionstatesattempttoidentifyteachingfieldsexperiencingshortagesbyrelyshyingonasingleindicatorofteachersupplyanddemandmdashthenumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitsAnalysisofthissingleindicashytorissufficienttomeetfederalrequirementsundertheIndividualswithDisabilitiesEducationActandotherfederalcodes
HoweverthereareatleasttwodisadvantagestothisapproachOneconcernsmeasurement
Certaintyregardingaccuratemeasurementofaconstruct(teacherdemandandsupply)riseswiththenumberofindicatorsusedAnyoneindicatorhassomeerrorassociatedwithitsmeasurementsothereisariskinbasingpolicydecisionsonasingleindicatorwithanunknownamountoferrorWithemergencylicensesorconditionalpermitslocaleducationagencyadministratorsmayhavedifferinginterpretationsofstateeducashytionagencyrulesontheneedtoapplyforsuchlicensesorpermitsandsomeapplicationscouldhavebeenmisfiledorlostAseconddisadvanshytageisthatasingleindicatorlacksthediagnosticinformationneededtoinformpolicymakersPolicymakerswhoknowthattherearelargenumshybersofprogramcompletersinchemistryeveryyearbutthattheattritionratefortheseteachersisabnormallyhigharebetterabletoproposecorrecshytivepoliciestoavoidshortagesthanpolicymakerswhoknowonlyabouttheshortage
Table3presentsthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandcoveredineachMidwestRegionstatersquosreportsItclearlyshowsthetradeoffsbetweencomprehensivenessandcostTheapshyproachestakenbyStatesABandCrelymainlyonsingleindicatorsasameansofcomplyingwithfederalandstatelawsThesestatesspentlessthan$4000annuallytogeneratetheirlistofshortageareasInformationgatheredthroughinterviewsindicatesthatthestateeducationagenciesinthesestateseitherdonotconsiderteacherstaffingtobeabigenoughprioritytojustifythecostofconshyductingamorecomprehensivestudyorthattheylackguidanceonhowtoconductsuchastudyBycontrastStatesEFandGeitherhavestatutesoradministrativerulesrequiringmorecomprehenshysivestudiesofteachersupplyanddemandorhavechosentoprepareacomprehensiveteachersupplyanddemandstudy(seetables2and3)PreviousanalysesandreportsforStatesDandEaddressedmoresupplyanddemandcomponentsthantheirmostrecentstudieshave(seetable3)Theirrecentsupplyanddemandstudieshavebeenparedbackbecauseofresourceconstraintsandotherpressingpriorities
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table 3
Teacher supply and demand components measured in most recent Midwest Region state supply and demand studies 2007 and 2008
cost and demand and supply components State a State b State c State d State e State f State g
lt$4000a $30000b cost estimate $10a lt$500a $27500b lt$35000 $25137
demand components
number of teachers retained
c Teacher attritionretirement
Teacher attrition other leavers
Teacher attrition inshystate movers
Teacher attrition outmigration
expected student enrollment
Teachershystudent ratios
Supply components
Teacher retention
c d inshystate pipeline
c d inshystate alternate route
pipeline yield (number of completers obtaining c certificates)
Teachers from other states
reentries
Single indicators for supplyshydemand balance
emergency or conditional permits outshyofshyfield c teachers longshyterm substitutes
c number of vacancies
local education agency surveys on administratorsrsquo impressions of overshy or undersupply
aRespondentsinthesestatesprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesHourswereconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostates
bTheseamountsprovidedbyindependentcontractorsdonotincludecostsassociatedwithstateeducationagencyprojectcoordinationorwiththetimerequiredbystateeducationagencydatabasemanagers
cMeasuredinpreviousreports
dReportedtogetherasasinglefigure
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysisbasedonreviewsofreportsandinterviewswithstateeducationagencystafforcontractorsseetextfordetails
19 inTerpreTing midWeST region STaTe efforTS To STudy Teacher Supply and demand
OnlytwoMidwestRegionstates(DandE) Respondentcommentsindicatethatthesestatesconductedprojectionsaspartoftheirworkon weighthecostsofconductingstudiesagainstteachersupplyanddemandandthesewereonly thebenefitsofhavingdetailedinformationononenrollmentsanddemandfornewteachersThe componentsTherespondentinStateDmenshyrespondentforStateDindicatednointerestatthe tionedthatthestatehashadtoputasideplansstateeducationagencytodomorecomprehenshy toroutinelyconductteachersupplyanddemandsiveprojectionsandtherespondentforStateE studiesbecauseofcostconcernsArespondentindicatedthatplanstoconductsuchforecastswere foranotherstatementionedthatthestatehassetasidebecauseofbudgetcutsRespondentsfrom trimmedpolicyshyrelevantanalysesfromitssupplytheotherstatessaidthattheydidnotdoteacher anddemandmodelbecauseofbudgetconstraintssupplyanddemandshyrelatedforecasts Thestateeducationagencyistryingtodetermine
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
20 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
theminimumanalysesneededtocomplywiththestatestatute
sTudy liMiTaTions
Despiteasystematicandobjectiveapproachtouncoveringtheinformationforthisreportthreelimitationsapply
Firstthecostestimates(seetables2and3)shouldbeconsideredroughestimatesDurshyinginterviewsmostrespondentsestimatedthenumberofhoursrequiredtopreparethereportsratherthanspecifyingthecostsindollaramountsTheprojectteamforthisreportthenconvertedthesetimefiguresintodollaramountsusinginformationonthesalariesofthepeoplementionedasworkingonthereportsTheseestimateswerethensenttotherespondentsforadjustmentTheestimateforStateAwasnotconfirmedbystateeducationagencystaff(thereshyspondenthadlefttheagency)howeveritseemsclearthatthestatersquosapproachwouldcostlessthanthatofalltheotherstates
AsecondlimitationisthatrespondentsmightnothavebeenawareofinternalstudiesordocumentsthattiedthedataelementstogethertogiveabetterpictureofteachersupplyanddemandthanappearedinthesereportsRespondentswereaskediftheywereawareofotheranalysesorreportsbythestateeducationagencyonteachersupplyanddemandNearlyallrespondentsrepliednoTherespondentforStateBwasanexception(seetable1)theformalreportonteachershortageareasisbasedonemershygencylicensesorconditionalpermitsbutstateedushycationagencyleadersthencombinethatinformationwiththenumberofprogramcompleterssuppliedinTitleIIreportstomakepolicydecisions
AthirdlimitationisthesmallnumberofstateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhocouldbeinterviewedBecausethisprojectcouldinterviewonlyninepeopleacrossthesevenMidwestRegionstatesastrategicdecisionwasmadetofocusonthestateeducationagencystafforcontractorswhoconductedthesestudiesInsomecasestheywereunabletoprovideinshydepthcontextualinformationontheimpetusforthestudiesoronhowthesupshyplyanddemandinformationisused
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
21 appendix a deScripTionS of codeS of relaTed federal regulaTion and federal laW
appendix a descRipTions of codes of fedeRal RegulaTion and fedeRal laW RelaTed To TeacheR shoRTage aReas
Thisappendixbrieflydescribesfederalcodesrelatedtoteachershortageareas
SectionsofFederalCodeofRegulationsTitle34(education)relatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
34 CFR 65350 ThisfederalcodeestablishedPaulDouglasScholarshipsforthoseseekingemployshymentinteachingoralreadyteachinginteachershortageareas(fundingforthesescholarshipswasdiscontinuedafter199697)ScholarshiprecipientsarerequiredtoteachfortwoyearsforeveryoneyearofscholarshipassistancereceivedTeachersinstateshydesignatedshortageareasneedtoteachforonlyoneyearforeveryyearofscholshyarshipassistancereceivedThesescholarshipsarenolongerofferedorfundedbutrecipientsarestillrequiredtoreporttothestateeducationagencyiftheydiscontinueteachingbeforemeetingtheirobligatorytermofserviceormovefromteachshyinginastateshyidentifiedshortageareatoanareanotexperiencingshortageTheshortageareasareidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyineachstateandapprovedbyUSDepartmentofEducation
34 CFR 67453 ThisfederalcodeconcernscancelshylationofloansprocuredunderthefederalPerkinsLoanProgramonthebasisofemploymentasateacherinmathscienceforeignlanguagesbilingualeducationoranotherteachershortageareaidentifiedbythestateeducationagencyAninstitutionofhigherlearningmustcancelupto100percentofafederalPerkinsLoanornationaldirectstudentloaniftheborrowerbecomesqualifiedtoteachinoneoftheseshortageareasandteachesinthatfieldfulltimeforacompleteacademiconeyear
34 CFR 682210 ThisfederalcodecallsforthedefermentofloansprocuredundertheFederal
FamilyEducationLoanProgram(FFEL)onthebasisofemploymentasateacherinateachershortageareaTeacherscandeferrepaymentofFFELloansiftheycandocumenttotheirlenderthattheyareteachinginafieldidentifiedbythechiefstateschoolofficerfortheirstateandapshyprovedbytheUSsecretaryofeducation
Section(6)(ii)identifiescriteriatobeusedbythechiefstateschoolofficertodetermineareasofteachershortage
bull Teachingpositionsthatareunfilled
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbyirregularprovisionaltemporaryoremergencycertification
bull Teachingpositionsthatarefilledbyteacherswhoarecertifiedbutwhoareteachinginacademicsubjectareasotherthantheirareaofpreparation
Section(7)stipulatesthatthechiefstateschoolofficercanproposealternativewrittenproceduresforidentifyingareasofteachershortagewhichmustbeapprovedbytheUSSecretaryofEducashytioninwriting
34 CFR 69812 ThisfederalcodegovernstheTeacherEducationAssistanceforCollegeandHigherEducation(TEACH)grantprogramsforpeopleconsideringteachingindesignatedshortageareasinschoolsservinglowshyincomehouseholdsTheTEACHgrantprogramofshyfersscholarshipsof$4000ayeartostudentsinteachereducationprogramswhointendtoteachinaschoolthatservesstudentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshiprecipientsmustpromisetoteachforfouryearswithinaneightshyyearspaninaldquohighshyneedfieldrdquowithinaschoolservingstushydentsfromlowshyincomehouseholdsScholarshipsofrecipientsunabletomeettheserviceobligationswillbeconvertedintofederaldirectunsubsidizedStaffordLoanstoberepaidtotheUSDepartshymentofEducationwithinterestchargedfromthedateofdisbursement
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
22 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Forthisfederalcodehighshyneedfieldsareidentifiedas
bull BilingualeducationandEnglishlanguageacquisition
bull Foreignlanguage
bull Mathematics
bull Readingspecialist
bull Science
bull Specialeducation
bull Otheridentifiedteachershortageareaasofthetimethestudentbeginsteachinglistedin
theUSDepartmentofEducationrsquosAnnualTeacherShortageareanationallistingThislistisdevelopedthroughthemechanismspecifiedunder34CFR682210(defermentofFFELloansdescribedabove)
SectionsofFederallawrelatedtoidentificationofteachershortageareas
20 USC 1418 Individuals with Disability Education Act part B CurrentpersonneldatareportingreshyquirementsforstatesunderpartBoftheIndividualswithDisabilityEducationActincludecountsoffullyemployedandcertifiedspecialeducationteachersandspecialeducationteacherswhoareemployedbutnotfullycertifiedThesecountsarerequiredforeachcategoryofdisabilityspecifiedforeachschoolyearbytheUSDepartmentofEducation
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
23 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
appendix b The liTeRaTuRe RevieW foR foRecasT Models
AnoriginalresearchquestionforthisprojecteventuallydroppedwasldquoHowwelldothemethshyodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomshyparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturerdquoToaddressthisquestiontheprojectteamconductedasearchofliteraturedatabasesforreportsthatsummarizedempiricalstudshyiesofteachersupplyanddemandoranyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandasspecifiedbyHaggstromDarlingshyHammondandGrissmer(1988)teacherdemandteacherattrishytionorteacherretentionteachermobilityteacherretirementstudentenrollmentteacherndashstudentratiosteachersupplyteacherpipeline(numberofcompletersfromtraditionaloralternativecertifishycationprograms)teacherreservepoolornumberofteachersreenteringtheworkforceandinmigrashytionofteachersThefiveshymemberliteraturereviewteamsoughtstudiesthatincludedforecastsoftheseconstructs
Theliteraturesearch
TheprojectteambeganbyidentifyingrelevantliteraturedatabasesThecandidateswereDigitalDissertationsEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchComshypleteEdResearchOnlineEducationFullTextERICStatshyUSAInternetandWebofScience
ThesearchstringwasdesignedtobebroadenoughtodetectresearchreportsthatusedtermsrelatedtoteachersupplyanddemandbutnotsobroadastoresultinanunmanageablenumberoffalseposishytivesThesearchstringwas
(teacher OR educator) AND (supply OR demand OR projection OR forecast OR estimate OR labor OR labour OR jobs OR workforce OR shortage OR surplus)
Searcheswerelimitedtostudiesconductedsince1983onpopulationsintheUnitedStatesandwithreportswritteninEnglish8Thesearchalso
wasrestrictedtostudiesdetailedinacademicjournalsabstractsarticlesbibliographiesbookentrieserrataliteraturereviewsorreports
ThesearchstringanddelimiterswereenteredfirstintoEBSCOrsquosEducationResearchCompleteandERICThenumberofrelevantreportsdetectedbythesesearchesalone(1318fromEBSCOand9434fromERIC)wasjudgedtobethemaximumthatcouldbescreenedbythereviewteaminthetimeallowedTheprojectmanagerthereforedecidedtolimittheliteraturereviewtoreportsfoundinthesetwodatabasesTheoverallresultsoftheliteraturesearcharedepictedinfigureB1
Reviewingreportsforrelevance
TheseliteraturedatabasesearchesyieldedthecompletecitationofthereportsthenamesoftheauthorsandtheabstractsTheresultswereimportedintoadatabaseprogrammedtoenablethereviewteamtoinitiallyjudgeeachreportrsquosrelevancebasedonthecontentsoftheabstractCopiesofmostreports(1066of1392)deemedldquopossiblyrelevantoruncertainrdquoduringtheabstractscreenwerethenobtainedwiththehelpofareferencelibrarianTheliteraturereviewteamthenjudgedtherelevanceofthesefullreportsandenteredtheirjudgmentsintothedatabase
Thesewerethecriteriaforrelevance
bull ThereportincludedresultsofanempiricalapplicationofteachersupplyanddemandmodelReportsthatrepackagedanalysesfromotherreportswerenotincluded
bull Thefindingsincludedsomeassessmentofoneormoreofthefollowingconstructsteachersupply(includingnumberofteachshyersretainednumberofteacherspreparedthroughtraditionaloralternativecertificashytionprogramsnumberofteachersintheteacherreservepoolandteachersmigratingfromoutsidethestate)andteacherdemand(includingnumberofteacherslostthrough
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
figure b1
literature search results
Search ERIC and EBSCO (10752 citations returned 9434 from ERIC and 1318 from EBSCO)
317 duplicates eliminated
Citations judged to be not relevant and therefore excluded (9043)
Reports unable to obtain (326)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be not relevant (836)
Reports categorized as national methodology summarized (103)
Phase I electronic database search
Phase II screening (abstract)
Phase III screening (full-text)
Data analysis
SourceAuthorsrsquoanalysis
Unduplicated citations from ERIC and EBSCO (10435)
Citations judged to be possibly relevant and requests issued for full text (1392)
Reports obtained reviewed and judged to be relevant methodologies analyzed (230)
Reports categorized as nonnational methodology summarized and cataloged (127)
24 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
attritionornumberofteachersretainedstudentenrollmentandteacherndashstudentratio)
bull Thereportincludeddefinitionsofthetheseconstructs(orotheravailabledocumentsclearlydescribedthemethodology)9
bull ForreportsconductedbystatesintheMidshywestRegiononlythoseconductedbefore2000wereincludedintheliteraturereview
reportspreparedin2000orlaterweretobereviewedinaseparatepartofthisproject
BeforejudgingrelevancetheliteraturereviewteammembersreceivedacopyoftheproposalforthisprojectwritteninstructionsonabstractreportscreeningandthecriteriaforrelevanceTheteammembersmetinitiallytodiscusstheprocessandthecriteriafordeterminingrelevanceandtolearnhowtousethereportdatabasetoviewabstractsandrecordjudgmentsofrelevance
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
25 appendix b The liTeraTure revieW for forecaST modelS
Theteammembersthenreceived15abstractstoreviewandjudgeasrelevantnotrelevantorunshycertainTeammemberswereinstructedtomarkldquodonotknowrdquoiftheyhadanyuncertaintyaboutwhetherthereportincludedameasureofteachersupplyanddemandorrelevantcomponents
Thereviewteamwasfairlyconsistentonthisinitialscreeningof15sampleabstracts(13outof15or87percentagreement)TheprojectmanagerreiteratedthatanyreportforwhichtoolittleinformationwasprovidedintheabstractshouldbejudgedldquodonotknowrdquoClearerjudgmentswouldbemadeonreviewingthefullreportThe10435reportsthatwereidentifiedthroughEBSCOandERICsearches(afterexcludingduplicates)werethendividedequallyamongthereviewteammembers
TheliteraturereviewteambeganbyscreeningtheabstractsFirsttheyjudgedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportmeasuredteachersupshyplyordemandForeachabstracttheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoSecondtheteamdeterminedwhethertheabstractindicatedthatthereportincludedmeasurementsofanyofthecomponentsofteachersupplyanddemandAgaintheyenteredldquoyesrdquoldquonordquoorldquodonotknowrdquoIftheresponsewasldquoyesrdquotheyalsoenteredthe
componentthatappearedtobemeasuredandwhetherthemeasurementswereofpastorpresentdataandwhetherthereportincludedforecastsCitationsforthe1392reportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammembersindicatedldquoyesrdquoorldquodonotknowrdquoweresenttotheprojectteamsrsquoreferencelibrarianforretrievalofthefullshytextreport
Resultsofliteraturesearch
OncethefullshytextreportswereobtainedthereportswerescreenedagainforrelevanceFullreportsforwhichliteraturereviewteammemberswerestilluncertainwerepassedtotheprojectmanagerforfinaldecision
ThereportsjudgedrelevantwereexaminedtodeshyterminewhethertheyincludedforecastsofteachersupplyanddemandcomponentswhetherforecastmodelshadbeenappliedinaconsistentwaythreeormoretimesandwhetherforecastscouldbelinkedwithldquoactualrdquodatagatheredduringtheforeshycasthorizonNoneoftherelevantreportsuncovshyeredthroughthesearchofEBSCOandERICmetthesecriteria10NorweretheremultiplereportsusingthesamemodelasufficientnumberoftimestomeetthesecriteriaThisresearchquestionwasthendroppedfromthestudy11
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
26 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
appendix c inTeRvieW quesTions
1 Areyou(orthestateeducationagency)requiredbystatelaworadministrativecodetoperformthesupplyanddeshymandstudy(Ifnotwheredoestheimpetuscomefrom)
2 Howoftenaresuchstudiesperformed
3 Whichofthefollowingdoyouexaminewhenassessingteachersupplyanddemand
a PKndash12studentenrollment(current)andprojectedstudentenrollmentfornext2510years
b Numberofteacherretirementsfortheyearandprojectedretirementsfornext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
c Rateofteacherattrition(current)andprojectedrateforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
d EstimatesofnewteachersgraduatingfromtradishytionalteacherpreparationprogramsProjectednumbersofnewteachersfromtraditionalteacherpreparationprogramsforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
e EstimatesofnewteacherswhoteachwithaltershynativecertificationProjectednumbersofnewteacherswithalternativecertificationforthenext2510years
bull Brokenoutbyteachingfield
bull Brokenoutbygeographicregionordistrict
4 Doyouconductprojectionsofanyofthecomponentslistedin3athrough3e
5 Arethereanyotheractivitiesorstudiesthatyouorthestateeducationagencydoesthatarerelatedtoteachersupplydemandorshortage
6 Tothebestofyourknowledgehavethemethodsusedtocreateteachersupplyanddemandreportschangedinthepast10years(Ifsohowhavetheychanged)
7 Tothebestofyourknowledgehaveyouoranyoneelseanalyzedtheaccuracyoftheteachersupplyanddemandestimatesprojections(forexampleaveragepercentageerrors)Ifsowhatwerethefindings
8 Areyoursupplyanddemandreportsdistributedtoexternalreviewerspriortopublication
9 Howmuchdoesitcostperyeartodeveloptheeducatorsupplyanddemandreport
10 Thesearetheteachersupplyanddemandreportsthatwehaveattainedthroughothersources[listreports]Arethereanyotherreportsorresearchsummariesthatthestateeducationagencymighthavethatyoumightsharewithus
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table d1
data reported in state arsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
emergency licenses counts and Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time or conditional permits percentage of and local reporting education of report (synthesis) total education mechanism agencies
agencies
NoteThisstatedoesnotpublishtheresultsofthisanalysisbutsharesinformationwithinthestateeducationagencyandsendslistofshortageareas(thosewiththehighestnumberofemergencylicensesorconditionalpermits)totheUSDepartmentofEducation
SourceStateAteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d2
data reported in state brsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report october 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local continuous current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education of report
mechanisms agencies
SourceStateBteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
Table d3
data reported in state crsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report July 2008
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
Teacher shortage areas Teacher Teaching areas mandatory local Job openings current at time (synthesis) shortage areas reporting education and teacher of report
mechanisms agencies licenses and teacher continuously preparation updated institutions program
completers updated annually
SourceStateCteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 27
appendix d daTa RepoRTed in MosT RecenT TeacheR supply and deMand RepoRTs by MidWesT Region sTaTe
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table d4
data reported in state drsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report august 2007
data Timeframes Type of data collection Source for data date of data
component reported level of aggregation method of data collection in 2007 report
Student counts local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 enrollment percentage agency setting and reporting education (demand) increase socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 demand estimated agency setting and reporting education projections counts socioeconomic status mechanism agencies (synthesis)
Teacher racial percentages local education mandatory local each fall fall 2006 characteristics agency setting and reporting education
socioeconomic status mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and year to year position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce percentages category gender race reporting education (demand or ethnicity education mechanism agencies supply) level age and
experience
longshyterm counts and Subject areas mandatory local each fall fall 2006 attrition of percentages reporting education 2001 teachers mechanism agencies (demand or supply)
mobility of counts and Subject areas local mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages education agency reporting education (demand or setting mechanism agencies supply)
retention of counts and Subject areas position mandatory local each fall fall 2006 2001 teachers percentages category reporting education (demand or mechanism agencies supply)
Size of teaching counts Subject areas over time mandatory local each fall fall 2006 workforce reporting education
mechanism agencies
Teacher counts and age range gender and mandatory retirees continuous 2006 retirements percentages experience reporting (demand or mechanism supply) (teacher
retirement database)
SourceStateDteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
28 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table d5
data reported in state ersquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
retention percentage educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) year to year reporting agencies
mechanism
pipeline counts educator type database certificate continuous July 2007ndashJune newly certified (instruction by information applicants 2008 teachers level) (supply)
inshystate counts level database certificate continuous 2008 migration information applicants provisional certificates (supply)
reentries counts and educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (supply) percentage of reporting agencies
total workforce mechanism
pipeline counts educator type Survey Teacher annually 2007 completers and alternative education of teacher certification institutions preparation routes programs (supply)
Student counts level mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 enrollments percentage (elementary reporting agencies (demand) change fourshy and secondary) mechanism
year projections
Total workforce counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 (demand) and year and reporting agencies
region for each mechanism educator type
ratio of counts ratios educator type database certificate continuous and certificates certificates (instruction by information applicants and each fall issued during issued to hires teaching area) and mandatory local education fiscal 2007 and (synthesis) reporting agencies fall 2008
mechanism
unfilled counts educator type mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 positions (instruction by reporting agencies (synthesis) teaching areas) mechanism
administrator ratings Teaching area mandatory local education each fall fall 2008 ratings of reporting agencies overshyand mechanism undersupply (synthesis)
demand calculations Teaching area mandatory local education each fall projections based on reporting agencies (demand) average new mechanism
hires over previous eight years
SourceStateEteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 29
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table d6
data reported in state frsquos most recent teacher supply and demand report January 2009
Type of data level of data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported aggregation method of data data collection 2008 report
pipeline counts Teacher shortage data supplied Teacher annually 2007 completers areas over time from external education of teacher source institutions preparation programs (supply)
Total teaching counts and Teacher shortage database license continuous fall 2008 licenses (supply) percentage areas over time applicants
change
new teaching counts Teachers prepared database license continuous fall 2008 licenses granted inshystate and outshy applicants (supply) ofshystate by teacher
shortage areas over time
Teacher counts and over time mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage reporting education (supply or of employed mechanism agencies demand) teachers
Teacher counts and by teacher mandatory local every fall fall 2008 retirements percentage shortage areas reporting education (retirements) and initial change over time mechanism agencies and licenses granted and database and license continuous (synthesis) information applicants (licenses)
retention counts cohorts of new mandatory local every fall fall 2008 (supply or teachers since reporting education demand) 2001 by time and mechanism agencies
region
emergency counts and broad teaching mandatory local continuous fall 2008 licenses or percentage filed and type of reporting education permits change license or permit mechanisms agencies
over time and by applications region for licenses or
permits
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 shortage and (including education education year surplus substitutes) agency agencies
personnel personnel
fiveshyyear counts based Teaching area Survey of local local fall every even fall 2008 projections on impressions education education year of teacher agency agencies retirements personnel personnel (supply or demand)
NoteStateFalsocollectsvacancycountsbyteachingareafromthesurveyoflocaleducationagencypersonnelThatinformationisnotincludedinthereport
SourceStateFteacherdemandandsupplyreport2008
30 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Table d7
data Reported in state grsquos Most Recent Teacher supply and demand Report 2007
Type of data data collection Source Timeframes for date of data in component reported level of aggregation method of data data collection 2007 report
pipeline counts Teaching area by mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers type of institution reporting education 2005ndash august 2006 of teacher (public or private) system institutions 2006 preparation institution and programs broad teacher (supply) categories over time
pipeline counts Teaching area mandatory Teacher September august 31 completers and alternative reporting education 2005ndashaugust 2006 of alternative certification system programs 2006 certification program programs (supply)
attrition rates percentages year to year by mandatory local 1989ndash2006 fall 2006 year to year general education reporting education (supply or and special system agencies demand) education
attrition rates percentages cohorts of teachers mandatory local 1996ndash2006 fall 2006 long term reporting education (supply or system agencies demand)
ages of counts Teaching area age mandatory local 200607 and fall 2007 educators percentages categories and reporting education 200203
grade level system agencies
vacancies counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
applicants counts Teaching area Survey of local local 200607 Winter 2007 education education agencies agency
administrators
areas of impressions Teaching area Survey of local local fall every fall 2008 shortage and (including education education even year surplus substitutes) agencies agency
personnel
SourceStateGteacherdemandandsupplyreport2007
appendix d daTa reporTed in moST recenT Teacher Supply and demand reporTS by midWeST region STaTe 31
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
32 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
noTes
TheauthorswishtoacknowledgeRobertReichardtwhoprovidedguidanceforthisstudy
1 LocaleducationagenciescommonlyusedasasynonymforschooldistrictsaredefinedhereasorganizationsthatoperatelocalprimaryorsecondaryschoolsIndianareferstolocaleducationagenciesasschoolcorporations
2 AfourthresearchquestionmdashhowwelldothemethodologiesusedbyMidwestRegionstatescomparewiththemostrigorousandaccuratesupplyanddemandforecastmodelsidentifiedintheliteraturemdashwasalsoposedbutsubseshyquentlydroppedRigorous and accurate modshyelsweredefinedasforecastmodelsthathadbeenappliedconsistentlyinanonshynationalsettingthreeormoretimesandthatwhencomparedwithactualcountstakenduringtheforecasthorizonresultedinlowpercentageerrorsaveragepercentageerrorsormeanabshysolutepercentageerrorsAsystematicsearchofliteratureinEBSCOandERICrevealed10435nonduplicatedreports245ofthemempiricalexaminationsofteachersupplyanddemandNosingleforecastmodelusedinthesereportsthatcouldbelinkedwithactualdatawasappliedconsistentlyonthreeormoreoccasionsSeeappendixBfordetailsoftheliteraturesearch
3 Reichardt(2003)providessomeguidancetostatesseekingtodesignacomprehensivestudyofteachersupplyanddemand
4 RespondentsinStatesABCandFprovidedcostestimatesinnumberofhoursrequiredtoperformtheanalysesusingexistingstatedataordatacollectedaspartofthestatersquosapshyproachHourswerethenconvertedtodollarsusingsalaryinformationfromstatesalarydatabasesdevelopedin2007bynewsmediaoutletsthroughFreedomofInformationActrequeststostatesCostsincludebenefitcostsbasedoninformationfromstatesrsquohuman
resourcesofficesCostestimatesweresenttorespondentsforreviewAllbutoneresponshydentrepliedandmadeadjustmentstotheestimatesTherespondentwhodidnotreply(StateA)wasnolongeremployedatthestateeducationagencyatthetimeoftherequest
5 Allthreestatesthatconductsurveysaspartoftheirteachersupplyanddemandreport(StatesEFandG)provideresponseratesandsomecaveatsregardingpotentialreportingbiaswhenresponseratesarelowHowevertheydonotprovideanynormsforjudgingthequalityofthedatasuchasthoseofferedbyMangioneandVanNess(2009)andothers(seesectionbelowoncautionsaboutrelyshyingonsurveysandimpressiondata)Nordothesestatereportsanalyzecharacteristicsofnonresponse
6 ThedatafromthesurveyofteachereducationprogramcompletersareespeciallysuspectMangioneandVanNess(2009)classifyaresponserateoflessthan50percentasldquonotscientificallyacceptablerdquoTheauthorsofStateGrsquosreportprovidepossiblereasonsforlackofresponsebutreportnoanalysisofcharacteristicsofnonrespondersDatafromthisprogramcompletersurveyarestillsumshymarizedinthereport
7 BoththeOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)andtheAmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearchhavedevelopedstandardformulasforcalculatingresponserates(OfficeofManagementandBudge2006AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch2008)OMBandtheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics(NCES)alsoprovideguidelinesrequiringanalysesofnonresponsewhenunitresponseratesoritemresponseratesfallbelowcertainlevelsThesestandardsandguidelinesarewidelyacceptedThereismuchlessconsensushoweverontherelashytionshipbetweenresponseratesandsurveyqualityandthecriteriaforacceptablyhighorlowresponseratesarenotclearcutHistorical
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
noTeS 33
responseratesfromsurveysconductedwithbestpracticesbyNCESareinthe70ndash90pershycentrangedependingonthetypeofsurveysandstageofdatacollection(USDepartmentofEducation2002)NumerousreferencebooksprovidemorecomprehensiveguidanceonhowtoconstructandadministerhighshyqualitysurveysExamplesincludeFowler(2009)andMangioneandVanNess(2009)TheMangioneandVanNessguidelinesarecitedheretoprovideawellrecognizedsetofcriteriaforassessingresponseratesinpracshyticeTheyarenotintendedasrigidorauthorishytativestandards
8 Theyear1983waschosenbecauseitrepresentsthepublicationdateforA Nation at Risk
9 MostofthereportsinvolvingdatafromoneormoreadministrationsoftheNationalCenter
forEducationStatistics(NCES)SchoolsandStaffingSurveyrefertoNCEStechnicalreportswhichprovidedetailsontherelevantquestionnairesandmethodology
10 Inseveralinstancesastringofthreeormorereportsincludingforecastswereuncoveredbuttheliteraturereviewteamcouldnotbecertainbasedonthereviewthattheresearchshyersconductingtheforecastshadconsistentlyusedthesameforecastmodels
11 TheresearchteamconsideredincludinginthereportacatalogofresearchmethodologiesfoundduringtheresearchreviewHoweveritwasdecidedthatsuchacatalogalthoughusefulwasonlytangentiallyrelatedtothepurposeofthisreportThoseinterestedinviewingthecatalogcancontactthefirstauthorofthisreport
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
34 meThodologieS uSed by midWeST region STaTeS for STudying Teacher Supply and demand
RefeRences
AllianceforExcellentEducation(2005)Teacher attrition a costly loss to the nation and to the statesWashingshytonDCAllianceforExcellentEducationRetrievedFebruary232009fromwwwall4edorgfilesarchivepublicationsTeacherAttritionpdf
AmericanAssociationofPublicOpinionResearch(2008)Standard definitions final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveysRetrievedJune232009fromwwwaapororguploadsStandard_Definitions_07_08_Finalpdf
ArnoldCLChoySPandBobbitSA(1993)Modeling teacher supply and demand with commentary(NCES93shy461)WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducashytionStatistics
BillingslyBS(2004)SpecialeducationteacherretentionandattritionacriticalanalysisoftheresearchliterashytureJournal of Special Education 38(1)39ndash55
BoeEE(1990)Comprehensive retention and attrition model (CRAM)PaperpresentedatResearchForumonDifferingApproachestoDefiningandMeasuringPershysonnelSupplyandDemandWashingtonDC(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED328527)
BoydDGrossmanPLankfordHLoebSandWyckshyoffJ(2005)How changes in entry requirements alter the teacher workforce and affect student achievement AlbanyNYTeacherPolicyResearchStateUniversityofNewYorkatAlbany
CampeauPLandApplebyJA(1987)Evaluation of discretionary programs under the Education of the Handicapped Act personnel preparation programPaloAltoCAAmericanInstitutesforResearchintheBehavioralSciences
CostrellRMandPodgurskyM(2008)PeakscliffsandvalleysEducation Next 8(1)22ndash28
DoltonPJ(2006)TeachersupplyInEHanushekandFWelch(Eds)Handbook of the economics of education (Volume2)AmsterdamNorthshyHolland
DouglasSandBirdRE(1985)Personal labor supply an estimation of a probabilistic teacher labor supply funcshytion(OccasionalpaperinEducationPolicyAnalysis416)ResearchTriangleParkNCSoutheastRegionalCouncilforEducationalImprovement
EschCEChangshyRossCMGuhaRTiffanyshyMoralesJandShieldsPM(2004)Californiarsquos teaching force 2004 key issues and trendsSantaCruzCATheCenterfortheFutureofTeachingandLearning
FeistritzerCE(2008)Alternative teacher certification a stateshybyshystate analysis 2007WashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationInformation
FowlerFJ(2009)Survey research methods (4thed)ThousandOaksCASage
FowlerFJandCosenzaC(2009)DesignandevaluationofsurveyquestionsInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nd
ed)ThousandOaksCASage
GauRPalmerLBMelnickRandHeffernonR(2003)Is there a teacher shortage Demand and supply in ArishyzonaTempeAZArizonaStateUniversityMorrisonInstituteforPublicPolicy
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1987)Teacher attrition the uphill climb to staff the nationrsquos schools(Rshy3512shyCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
GrissmerDWandKirbySN(1991)Patterns of attrishytion among Indiana teachers 1965shy1987(Rshy4076shyLE)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HaggstromGWDarlingshyHammondLandGrissmerDW(1988)Assessing teacher supply and demand (Rshy3633shyEDCSTP)SantaMonicaCARANDCorporation
HanushekEKainJFandRivkinSG(2004)WhypubshylicschoolsloseteachersJournal of Human Resources 39(2)326ndash54
HarrisSACampWEandAdkisonJ(2003January)New structures and approaches for teacher preparation
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
35 referenceS
do they make a difference in teacher retentionPaperpresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheAmericanAssociationofCollegesforTeacherEducationNewOrleansLA
HussarWJandBaileyTM(2008)Projections of educashytion statistics to 2017 (NCESshy2008shy078)WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
LauritzenP(1988)The measurement of personnel needs in special education information on personnel supply and demand RestonVANationalClearinghouseforProfessionsinSpecialEducation(ERICDocumentReproductionServiceNoED311612)
LewisCD(1982)Industrial and business forecasting methods a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fittingBostonButterworthScientific
MangioneTWandVanNessJH(2009)MailsurveysInLBickmanandDRog(Eds)The Sage handbook of applied social research methods (2nded)ThousandOaksCASage
MarylandStateDepartmentofEducation(2008)Maryshyland teacher staffing report 2008ndash2010BaltimoreMDMarylandStateDepartmentofEducation
NationalCommissiononExcellenceinEducation(1983)A nation at risk the imperative for educational reform WashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrintingOffice
NielsonDB(2001)WhowillteachMontanarsquoschildrenHelenaMTMontanaBoardofPublicEducation
CertificationStandardsandPracticesAdvisoryCouncil
PodgurskyM(2006)IstherealdquoqualifiedteacherrdquoshortshyageEducation Next 6(2)27ndash32
PodgurskyMandSpringerMG(2008)CredentialsvershysusperformancereviewoftheteacherperformancepayresearchPeabody Journal of Education 82(4)551ndash73
ReichardtR(2003)Using teacher supply and demand analysis in policymaking AuroraCOMidshyContinentResearchforEducationandLearning
SmullMWandBunsenT(1989)Projecting the need for special education teachers a concept paperWashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationPrograms
USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterforEdushycationStatistics(2002)NCES statistical standards WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationInstituteofEducationSciencesNationalCenterforEducationStatistics
USDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices(1989)Implementation of the Education of the Handicapped Act Public Law 94shy142 Eleventh Annual Report to Congress WashshyingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationOfficeofSpecialEducationandRehabilitativeServices
USOfficeofManagementandBudget(2006)Standards and guidelines for statistical surveysWashingtonDCUSOfficeofManagementandBudget
Recommended