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Meteorological Analysis and Prediction Laboratory a.k.a. “The Forecasting Lab” – Who we are. Gary Lackmann. Megan Gentry Ph.D. student (MS). Christian Cassell (MS). Kelly Mahoney Ph.D. student (MS). Kevin Hill Ph.D student (MS). Richard Barnhill undergrad researcher. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Meteorological Analysis and Prediction Laboratory
a.k.a. “The Forecasting Lab” – Who we are
Kevin Hill Ph.D student (MS)
Kelly Mahoney Ph.D. student (MS)
Christian Cassell (MS)
Gary Lackmann Megan Gentry
Ph.D. student (MS)
Richard Barnhill undergrad researcher
Also (not pictured):
Adam Baker (MS)
Blair Holloway (MS)
Morgan Silverman (MS)
Chris Hill (Ph.D.)
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Meteorological Analysis & Prediction Laboratory
Objectives: Enhance understanding & improve forecasting of high-impact weather systems via
observational and theoretical analysis, formulation & refinement of conceptual
models, & improvements to NWP models
Collaborations with NCEP, NWS emphasized
NWP Models Tropical Cyclones Winter Storms Flood Forecasting
What we do…
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What we study…Lake-effect snowstorm, Buffalo, NY
Convective storms, Apex, NC
Flash flood, Centennial Campus
Hurricane Opal, Gulf of Mexico ‘95
Ice storm during cold-air damming, 2002, Apex NC
Quebec ice storm, 1/’97
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Use of Numerical Models… Numerical models increasingly used in weather
analysis & prediction
In high-impact events (rare), model assumptions not always justified
Objectives and approach:- Diagnose, understand atmospheric processes in high impact weather
events
- Examine process representation in model atmosphere
- Seek ways to improve model, ideally leading to more accurate forecasts or simulations
- Alert model users to deficiencies, process recognition
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Identifying Research Problems Sometimes brought to us by NWS forecasters; more likely
to notice when model predictions fail in given situations: Appalachian cold-air damming Ice storms Heavy precipitation events Convective storms
Sometimes discover missing or misrepresented processes via other means: Precipitation mass sink effect Representing turbulence over windy oceans, esp. during
hurricanes
Combination of theoretical analysis, modeling, observational analysis: improve understanding, develop practical applications
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Current Research Projects
NOAA Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research program (CSTAR)
3 Consecutive awards spanning ~10 years Project involves 10 regional NWS offices Many student thesis projects have led to:
Operational forecasting improvements
Employment opportunities in the NWS
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Current Research Projects
DOE Climate Change ProgramDOE Climate Change Program
Collaboration with Drs. Semazzi, Xie, Aiyyer Novel means of assessing future TC activity Use WRF model to answer the question:
What would the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season have been like in 2105?
Example WRF domain showing coverage of Atlantic MDR for a 36-km model simulation.
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NSF Convection project (collaboration with Dr. Parker) Convective system motion is complex; forecasting
challenge Accurate forecasts important: Precipitation, severe weather Interested in convective momentum transport: role in MCS
motion? Absent in some operational model parameterizations
Corfidi 1996, 2003
Current Research Projects
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Involved with Unidata program, emphasis on geoscience education, visualization software, multi-disciplinary focus
Currently involved with governance at Unidata
Current Activities
Idealized simulation of Hurricane:
3-D isosurfaces of potential temperature (blue), rainwater (yellow), and plan plot of SLP generated with Unidata’s Integrated Data Viewer (IDV)
The GEON-IDV is freely available, and offers exciting 3-D graphics capabilities.
This image shows earthquake locations under Mt. St. Helens
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2006 Summer workshop, with 80 Geoscience educators Theme was “Models as Educational Tools” See article in July BAMS for more details
Current Activities
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Models as Teaching Tools
Idealized model simulation, small initial disturbance
Idealized model simulation, larger initial disturbance
Topic: Scales of atmospheric adjustment, Rossby radius of deformation, tropical cyclogenesis
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Philosophies and Emphases
Encourage graduate students to help write proposals, especially for Ph.D. students
Support undergraduate research
Collaborate with NWS forecasters, scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC)
I like to stay involved in the research Why should students have all the fun? Or, am I just a micromanager?
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Typically 1- 4 undergraduate research projects
Current Undergrad Researchers
Richard Barnhill
Bryce Tyner
Chris Webster
Mallory Nicholls
Monica Laureano (w/ SCO)
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Collaborations Lab located in RIII building, Centennial Campus –
facilitates interaction with NWS
Have also taken on consulting work with Progress Energy
Collaboration with scientists at National Centers (NCEP/HPC, NSSL/SPC)
Doing some work with RENCI (w/ SCO)
Collaboration with Greg Fishel, WRAL on NWP projects
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Where do our students get jobs?
National Weather Service field offices National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center
Private sector companies River Forecast Center Military services (Air Force)
Often “applied” interests; skills with modeling, data analysis and manipulation market well
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A typical day in the lab?
Snowbird, UT for the AMS conference in July…
Kevin likes to keep things neat in the lab
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Acknowledgements
Amazingly good grad students
Collaborations with scientists at NWS, NSSL, NCEP, other agencies who have supported and utilized our research
Funding from the NSF, NOAA, NWS, and DOE has made it possible to organize this research group
Thanks to the GSA for organizing this symposium, and to you for your attention
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