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Phil Rockefeller Chair
Washington
W. Bill Booth Vice Chair
Idaho
Tom Karier Washington
Henry Lorenzen
Oregon
Bill Bradbury Oregon
James Yost
Idaho
Pat Smith Montana
Jennifer Anders
Montana
February 3, 2015
MEMORANDUM TO: Power Committee FROM: Charlie Grist, Tina Jayaweera, Kevin Smit SUBJECT: Draft Conservation Supply Curve BACKGROUND: Presenter: Charlie Grist, Tina Jayaweera, Kevin Smit Summary: Staff will summarize the discussions from the January Conservation
Resources Advisory Committee (CRAC) meetings, including updates on issues presented at the December Power Committee meeting and proposed ramp rates.
Staff will then provide an overview of the key drivers of the changes in conservation potential since the completion of the Sixth Power Plan’s assessment. These drivers include: Conservation accomplishments New and revised state energy codes and federal standards Load forecast revisions Updated assessments of stock and market characteristics New conservation opportunities Updated measure savings
Staff will provide preliminary results, overall and by sector, and describe specific examples of how these drivers are affecting the sector’s conservation potential relative to the Sixth Plan. We will also include a list of measures considered by sector. Overall, staff’s preliminary estimate of remaining conservation potential has decreased from the Sixth Plan, primarily due to slower underlying
regional load growth, the impact of new efficiency standards and utility program achievements. However, significant potential remains.
Relevance: This presentation provides the Power Committee a preview of the draft
results that will be presented to the full Council during the March meeting. Workplan: 1D. Prepare for Seventh Power Plan and maintain analytical capability;
update conservation supply curves. Background: During the January 2015 Power Committee meeting, staff discussed the
key policy issues raised to-date with the CRAC. Two of those issues were discussed further at CRAC meetings held later in January. In addition, the draft load forecast was presented at the December 2014 Power Committee meeting. The draft results and other drivers for the conservation supply curves have not been previously discussed with the Council for the Seventh Plan.
More Info: CRAC meeting notes and comments from stakeholders are available on
the CRAC webpage: http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/crac/home/
2/3/2015
1
Conservation Resources
Power Committee
February 10, 2015
Key Drivers of Remaining Conservation
AmountFocus of today’s
presentation
Total MWh of savings
Pace Year by year maximum acquisition amount
CostT t l t (b $/kWh bi )
1
Total resource cost (by $/kWh bin)
2
2/3/2015
2
Status Recent discussions with CRAC
R id ti l li hti h ith h t t Residential lighting approach with short-term “PPA-like” savings: OK Residential behavior/control optimization
program: OK, though didn’t like name Ramp rates: generally OK, some adjustments
Compiling results Compiling results Some workbooks available now for review
Draft results in March for RPM inputs
3
Ramp Rates Used to determine maximum pace of
acquisition in conjunction with annual unit acquisition in conjunction with annual unit count
Now based on acquisition year Depends on when cost bundle is selected Not equal to plan year
For 7P, aligned retrofit and lost opportunity to single set of eight curvesto single set of eight curves
Achievability fraction (85%) applied on top of ramp rate
4
2/3/2015
3
Suite of Ramp Rates
80%
90%
100%vable
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
mulative Percent Achiev
12Med
5Med
1Slow
50Fast
20Fast
Even20
Max60
5
0%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
Cu
Acquisition Year
Max60
3Slow
Suite of Ramp Rates
80%
90%
100%
able
Res weatherization, Com interior lighting, Ind process
improvements
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
mulative Percent Achieva 12Med
5Med
1Slow
50Fast
20Fast
Even20
Max60
Low energy spray application irrigation, com interior glazing, res drain water heat
6
0%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
Cum
Acquisition Year
Max60
3Slowrecovery
2/3/2015
4
THCOMPARING WITH 6TH PLAN
7
6P Supply Curve
7000
8000
Wa)
Residential Consumer ElectronicsCommercial IndustrialAgriculture Utility Distribution
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
evab
le P
oten
tial b
y 20
29 (M
W
8
0
1000
<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200>2
00Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)
Ach
ie
2/3/2015
5
Overview of DriversRelative to the 6th Plan Conservation Potential :
Decreases due to:• Conservation accomplishments• New and revised state energy codes and federal New and revised state energy codes and federal
standards• Lower Load forecast• Culled measures
Increases due to:• New measures• Higher units counts for some measures
9
Decreases/Increases/Remains the Same due to:• Updated assessments of stock and market
characteristics
Program Accomplishments have Exceeded Targets Since 2005
255277
247268
300Target
135 147
203
234 231247
100
150
200
250
Annual Savings (MWa) Actual
0
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10
Cumulative savings since the 6th are expected to be near 1300 aMW.
2/3/2015
6
6th Plan Accomplishments Thru 2013
1,400
W)
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
lative Savings (aM
W
Momentum Savings
Codes & Standards
Programs
‐
200
2010‐2013
Cumu
11
Baseline Load Forecast is Lower
30 000
32,000
aMW)
22 000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
cast Regional Load
s (a
7P
6P
12
20,000
22,000
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Fore
Year
2/3/2015
7
36 New Federal Efficiency Standards Take Effect This Decade
Electric MotorsCommercial Refrigeration Equipment
Walk‐In Coolers and FreezersMetal Halide Lamp Fixtures
Automatic Commercial Ice MakersClothes Washers, Commercial
General Service Fluorescent LampsFurnace Fans
Candelabra & Intermediate Base Incandescent LampsGeneral Service Lamps: Incandescents plus CFLs, GSLED, GSOLED
Direct Heating EquipmentDishwashersPool Heaters
Commercial CAC and HP (Water‐ and Evaporatively‐Cooled) Refrigerators and Freezers
Room Air ConditionersFluorescent Lamp Ballasts
Central Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsClothes Dryers
Clothes WashersFurnaces
Water HeatersSmall Electric Motors
External Power SuppliesMicrowave Ovens
Distribution Transformers: Liquid‐ImmersedDistribution Transformers: Low‐Voltage Dry‐Type
Distribution Transformers: Medium‐Voltage Dry‐TypeElectric Motors
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Commercial CAC and HP (65,000 Btu/hr to 760,000 Btu/hr)Packaged Terminal AC and HP
Single Package Vertical Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsBoilers
DehumidifiersRanges and Ovens
Boilers, CommercialVending Machines
Candelabra & Intermediate Base Incandescent Lamps
Year New Standard Takes Effect
13
26,000
27,000
MW) With standards
Without standards
Impact of Federal Standards on Loads*
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
recast Regional Load
s (aM Without standards
20,000
21,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
For
14*Draft estimate, subject to change
2/3/2015
8
Number of Units in Year 20*UnitUnit 66thth Plan (2030)Plan (2030) 77thth Plan (2035)Plan (2035)
Count of Homes 7.6 Million 7.2 Million
Commercial Floor Area 3.8 Billion SF 4.0 Billion SF
Industrial MWh Sales 4,900 aMW 4,600 aMW
New commercial floor area lower by ~30%
New homes added 15% lower New homes added ~15% lower
Industrial loads lower ~ 6%
15
*Medium Forecast
Significant Changes from Recent Stock Assessments
Single FamilySingle Family 66thth PlanPlan 77thth PlanPlan
Electric water heating 64% 55%
Electric space heating 46% 34%
Commercial 6th Plan 7th Plan
kWh use per SF 16 14
16
kWh use per SF 16 14
Lighting power per SF (W) 1.15 0.99
Electric space heating 27% 32%
2/3/2015
9
Why Measures Were Culled from 6th Plan?
Measure or efficiency level is now standard practicepractice
Captured by federal standards or state codes
Reduced estimate of potential from updated stock assessment or technical analysis
Sector-specific examples coming up
17
What’s New in 7th Plan Conservation Potential Assessment
Stock assessments (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)
Notable new measures Solid state lighting Advanced power strips Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) for HVAC Ductless heat pumps for forced air furnaces Advanced commercial rooftop HVAC unit control
Notable measure savings updates from RTF Adjustments to residential weatherization & HVAC Irrigation hardware Commercial cooking equipment
18
2/3/2015
10
20-year Technical PotentialThus Far…
6000
7000MW)
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Achievable Potential (aM
Distribution Eff
Agriculture
Industrial
Commcercial
Residential
0
1000
2000
6P 7P
Regional A Residential
19
RESIDENTIAL
20
2/3/2015
11
Residential Measures Heat pump dryers* ENERGY STAR monitors ENERGY STAR desktops
Ductless heat pumps Drain water heat recovery WIFI thermostatsN G S des tops
ENERGY STAR laptops Advanced Power Strips Efficient Oven Efficient Microwave Attic Insulation Wall Insulation Floor Insulation Low-U Windows
W t e ostats LED lighting ENERGY STAR refrigerators ENERGY STAR freezers Drain water heat recovery Heat pump water heater ENERGY STAR dishwasher Low-flow showerheads Faucet aerators
Infiltration control Duct sealing Heat Recovery Ventilation Variable speed heat pumps Efficient air source heat pumps*
Behavior/COP Efficient electric vehicle chargers Controls, Commissioning & Sizing Solar water heaters* ENERGY STAR clothes washers*
21*in progress
Residential Potential:Key Drivers of Change From 6th Plan
•TVs•Set‐top boxes•New
construction shell
•Weather‐ization
•Advanced power strips
•DHP in ducted systemsB h i
22
•Behavior
Overall 20‐year Residential Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.
2/3/2015
12
COMMERCIAL
23
Commercial Measures Advanced Rooftop Controller
Chiller - equip retrofits
Commercial Clothes Washers
Motors – Rewind
Municipal Sewage Treatment
Municipal Water Supply
Commercial Computer & Monitor
Commercial Energy Management
Compressed Air
Cooking Equipment
Data Centers
Demand Control Ventilation
DHW - Efficient Tanks
DHW - Showerheads
ECM on VAV Boxes
p pp y
Parking Lighting
Premium Fume Hood
Pre-Rinse Spray Valve
Secondary Glazing Systems
Smart Plug Power Strips
Street and Roadway Lighting
Switched Reluctance/Permanent Magnet Motors
Ultra Low Energy Building-New
Exterior Building Lighting
Grocery Refrigeration Bundle
Lighting Controls Interior
Lighting-Interior
Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC
Variable Speed Chiller
Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF)
Water Cooler Controls
Weatherization - School
24
2/3/2015
13
Commercial Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan
•Packaged Refrigeration •Network PC•Premium HVAC
•Day lighting•VRF•ARC
•Lighting •Cooking
25
Overall 20‐year Commercial Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.
INDUSTRIAL
26
2/3/2015
14
Industrial Measures Air Compressor Demand Reduction
Air Compressor Equipment
Air Compressor Management
HighBay Lighting
Mech Pulp: Refiner Replacement
Mech Pulp: Premium Process
Mech Pulp: Refiner Plate Improvement
Kraft Pulp: Effluent Treatment SystemHighBay Lighting
Lighting Controls
Motors: Efficient Rewind
VSD Controls
Motor Management Program
Fan Efficient Centrifugal
Food: Fans and Blowers
Other: Fans and Blowers
Fan ASD Control
Kraft Pulp: Effluent Treatment System
Kraft Pulp: Efficient Agitator
Paper: Efficient Pulp Screen
Paper: Premium Fan
Paper: Material Handling
Wood: Replace Pneumatic Conveyor
Wood: Hydraulic Press
Cold Storage Retrofit
Cold Storage Tuneup
Premium Pump
Pump ASD Control
Food: Cooling and Storage
Food: Refrig Storage O&M
Metal: New Arc Furnace
Paper: Medium Consistency Pump
Fruit Storage Refer Retrofit
CS Retrofit -- CO2 Scrub
CS Retrofit -- Membrane
Fruit Storage Tuneup
Groc Dist Retrofit & Tuneup
Generic O&M
27
Industrial Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan
•Much done•Transformers•Lower loads
28
Overall 20‐year Industrial Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.
2/3/2015
15
AGRICULTURE
29
Ag Measures Irrigation Hardware (nozzles
Motor rewind
Dairy Hardware (nozzles, gaskets, drop replacements) Scientific irrigation
systems Low-energy spray
Dairy Milk Precoolers VFD on milkers Efficient lighting Refrigeration heat
recoveryapplication (LESA) High/medium to
low pressure drop
recovery
Area (barn) lights
30
2/3/2015
16
Agriculture Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan
•
•Shift to large‐scale dairy farms
•Accomplish‐ments
•LESA•Area lights
•Acres irrigated
31
Overall 20‐year Agricultural Sector remaining technical potential is expected to increase.
ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
32
2/3/2015
17
Distribution System Measures Reduce system voltage via line drop
compensationcompensation
Minor system improvements Phase load balancing, feeder load balancing,
VAR management
Major system improvementsj y p Substation upgrades & select re-conductoring
Automatic end-of-line voltage control
33*in progress
Distribution System Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan
• Accomplishments•Lower Applicability
•Lower loads
34
Overall 20‐year Distribution System remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.
2/3/2015
18
WRAP UP
35
Themes Strong program achievements since 6th
PlanPlan Major codes & standards activity Continue to find new opportunities Significant remaining potential More conservation >$100 per MWh than 6th$ p
Plan However, significant amounts of low-cost
potential remains
36
2/3/2015
19
Next Steps
Completing technical analysis
Soliciting feedback on technical analysis
Bundle results
Draft supply curves ready final review by CRAC and Council in March
f h l i f fi l i Draft 7th Plan inputs for RPM final in March
37
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