Meeting carbon budgets – 5th Progress Report to Parliament

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Meeting carbon budgets –5th Progress Report to ParliamentCommittee on Climate Change, June 2013

www.theccc.org.uk

If you want to tweet about this report please use #cccprog13

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector4. Emissions in the traded sector5. Sectors

a) Powerb) Buildings c) Industryd) Transporte) Agriculturef) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

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Today’s report - Key messages

• Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors.

• Underlying emissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this Parliament.

• Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation.

• Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation, insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but challenges sustaining progress in future.

#cccprog13

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector4. Emissions in the traded sector5. Sectors

a) Powerb) Buildings c) Industryd) Transporte) Agriculturef) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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CO2 emissions rose 3.5% in 2012 in the context of colder winter weather and a gas-to-coal switch in power generation. Small underlying emissions reduction

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector4. Emissions in the traded sector5. Sectors

a) Powerb) Buildings c) Industryd) Transporte) Agriculturef) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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First non-traded sector budget achieved, second likely to be achieved – but not on track to meet 3rd and 4th budgets

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Gross traded sector emissions rose by 5% in 2012 mainly due to the gas to coal switch. Deep cuts required to meet future budgets.

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The price of carbon in the EU ETS has fallen further in 2012 and 2013 – important for the EU to put in place measures to strengthen the price

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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8% increase in power emissions due to gas-to-coal switching

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Actual emissions intensity increased due to the gas-to-coal switch – but achievable emissions intensity fell to 315 gCO2/kWh

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Additional wind capacity in 2012 was at record levels

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Strong project pipeline – but concern over projects moving from development to construction.

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Buildings emissions rose by 10% due to the cold winter weather and increased carbon intensity of electricity

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Good progress on loft and cavity wall insulation and boiler replacement. Limited progress on solid wall insulation

Loft insulation

Cavity wall insulation

Solid wall insulation

A rated boilers

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Industry emissions rose 3% reflecting increased carbon intensity of power generation - direct emissions were broadly flat

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Limited evidence of energy efficiency improvements in the industrial sector in recent years

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Surface transport emissions fell by 1.3% in 2011. NAEI estimates suggest that within this, emissions from vans increased, while those from cars and HGVs fell.

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New car CO2 fell 3.6% to 133 gCO2/km in 2012gCO2/km

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New van CO2 fell 4.1% to 187 gCO2/km in 2012

Note: SMMT publish an alternative estimate from 2011 onwards

It is anticipated that the European Commission will publish a strategy for HGV emissions in summer 2013, which is expected to consider regulating whole emissions over the vehicle lifetime after 2020.

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Car km fell in 2012 – response to higher fuel prices, other factors?

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Agriculture emissions estimates remained unchanged from 2010 – but are highly uncertain. Need for better evidence to frame policy response.

#cccprog13

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Contents

1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations#cccprog13

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Waste emissions fell by 3% in 2011, and are now 64% below 1990 levels. This is largely due to reduced methane emissions from landfill. Landfill bans should be considered

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Non-CO2 emissions arising from industry, transport, buildings and energy supply fell 4% in 2011 – EU legislation on F-gases should reflect full potential for low-carbon alternatives

#cccprog13

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1. Key messages of today’s report

2. Emissions and their drivers in 2012

3. Emissions in the non-traded sector

4. Emissions in the traded sector

5. Sectors

a) Power

b) Buildings

c) Industry

d) Transport

e) Agriculture

f) Waste and other non-CO2

g) Devolved administrations

Contents

#cccprog13

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Emissions in devolved administrations broadly track UK trend – with relatively good progress in renewable generation, energy efficiency improvements

#cccprog13

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Today’s report - Key messages

• Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors.

• Underlying emissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this Parliament.

• Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation.

• Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation, insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but challenges sustaining progress in future.

#cccprog13