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measuring systemic change
Image by Calvinius. Sou
rce: W
ikiM
edia. CC BY
-‐SA 3.0
a market systems approach
Source: Helvetas Swiss IntercooperaDon
Skills
R&D Finance
Service providers SMEs
Ministries
AssociaDons
Lead firms
Micro-‐ enterprises
AuthoriDes
Consultancies
NGOs
Media
Informal networks
Policies Social norms
Laws
Project
Funder
Infra-‐ structure Inputs
what is systemic change?
Source: Donor CommiRee for Enterprise Development (DCED)
impact criteria sustainable -‐ unlikely to be reversed scale -‐ mainstreamed value -‐ dispropor:onately benefits target groups
unwrapping systemic change
a new or improved product/service offer, or a shi?ed role/ responsibility clear innova:on
shared vision a change in the suppor:ng func:ons and rules that bring about more effec:ve func:oning of the core market
Source: Ripley & Nippard ‘Making Sense of Messiness’
systemic change framework
Source: Springfield Centre for Business in Development
ADOPT
Player takes up innovaDon and plans to
conDnue
ADAPT
Player independently adapts or invests in
innovaDon
EXPAND
Other compeDng players copy the
innovaDon (or a variant thereof)
RESPOND
System adjusts to incorporate a new way
of working
SEED INNOVATION
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR
INNOVATION
summary metrics for hypothesis tes:ng
Source: Adapted from Springfield Centre for Business in Development
If we le1 now, would partners return to their previous ways of working? Value: who benefits with what Sustainability: leverage Sustainability: revenues, costs or profitability (or mandate fulfilment)
If you le1 now, would partners build upon the changes they've adopted? Sustainability: Level of independent investment Scale: rolling-‐out product/service to new segments or geographies
If you le1 now, would target group benefits depend on too few people, firms, or organisaAons? Scale: replicaDon through crowding-‐in, criDcal mass (Dpping point and market share) Scale: barriers to entry and behaviour of ‘scale agents’ Value: sustained levels of benefits
If you le1 now, would the system be supporAve of the changes introduced (allowing them to be upheld, grow, evolve)? Scale: Policy/BEE response from non-‐compeDng players Scale: ‘Paradigms’ -‐ Underling market structure, mental models Sustainability: System ‘health’ -‐ stress tesDng scenarios, sensiDvity analysis, churn rates
EXPA
ND
RESPOND
ADOPT
ADAPT
methods
Source: Adapted from Springfield Centre for Business in Development
If we le1 now, would partners return to their previous ways of working? Value: who benefits with what Sustainability: leverage Sustainability: revenues, costs and profitability (or mandate fulfilment)
If you le1 now, would partners build upon the changes they've adopted? Sustainability: Level of independent investment Scale: rolling-‐out product/service to new segments or geographies
If you le1 now, would target group benefits depend on too few people, firms, or organisaAons? Scale: replicaDon through crowding-‐in, criDcal mass (Dpping point and market share) Scale: barriers to entry and behaviour of ‘scale agents’ Value: sustained levels of benefits
If you le1 now, would the system be supporAve of the changes introduced (allowing them to be upheld, grow, evolve)? Scale: Policy/BEE response from non-‐compeDng players Scale: ‘Paradigms’ -‐ Underling market structure, mental models Sustainability: System ‘health’ -‐ stress tesDng scenarios, sensiDvity analysis, churn rates
EXPA
ND
RESPOND
ADOPT
ADAPT
Lean surveys (inc. PPI)
Experimental /
QE designs
ObservaDon InvesDgaDve
approach
Snowballing
Tacit knowledge
Network analysis
SenseMaker ®
Outcome mapping
example
Image by Calvinius. Sou
rce: W
ikiM
edia. CC BY
-‐SA 3.0
example: the informa:on market system in Uganda
Source: M4P Hub and ILO
Skills
InformaDon Finance
Service providers SMEs
Ministries
AssociaDons
Lead firms
Micro-‐ enterprises
AuthoriDes
Consultancies
NGOs
Media
Informal networks
Standards Social norms
Laws
Project
Funder
Infra-‐ structure
Inputs
Goal: increase access to informaDon for entrepreneurial decision-‐making
making commercial radio work
ADOPT
Player takes up innovaDon and plans to
conDnue
ADAPT
Player independently adapts or invests in
innovaDon
EXPAND
Other compeDng players replicate the innovaDon (or a variant
thereof)
RESPOND
System adjusts to incorporate a new way
of working
1 partner radio staDon (CBS) introduces programme “I run my own business” Anecdotal evidence of popularity and benefit (call ins)
CBS senior management buy-‐in Three new programmes launched
17 radio staDons crowd-‐in. Total 22 regular programmes in 18 local
languages
7 million listeners, 75% self-‐idenDfy as dedicated
96% report business benefit (survey, sample size 1,100)
Policy makers protect nascent eco-‐tourism industry
Exposed corrupDon in tobacco out
grower scheme. Safeguarded livelihoods of 25,000 farmers
(case studies)
Source: M4P Hub and ILO
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