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European Real Estate Society 21 st Annual Conference Bucharest, Romania 25-28 June 2014. Measuring the Outcomes of Anticommons in Land Development. Tzuchin Lin, Fanghsin Huang Department of Land Economics National Chengchi University Taipei, TAIWAN. Outlines. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Measuring the Outcomes of Anticommons in Land Development
Tzuchin Lin, Fanghsin HuangDepartment of Land Economics
National Chengchi UniversityTaipei, TAIWAN
European Real Estate Society 21st Annual ConferenceBucharest, Romania 25-28 June 2014
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- The Inert Housing (Land) Supply is Overlooked- Land Assembly likely Leads to The Anticommons
Tragedy- Wanhua District needs to be Revitalized- The Size of Developed Parcels is Larger than
Undeveloped Parcels- Land Parcels have been slowly but Persisently
Assembled- Wrestling between Urban Development and Property
Rights is Inevitable
Outlines
32001Q1
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2012Q30
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1,000,000
0
50
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Housing Units
Price Index
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Pric
e In
dex
The Inert Housing (Land) Supply is Overlooked
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Alonso: a demand-dominated thinking
The Revival of the Supply Side- Alan Evans (1983): The determination of the price of land,
Urban Studies- Max Neutze (1987): The supply of land for a particular use,
Urban Studies- David Adams (1991): Active and passive behavior in land
ownership, Urban Studies- Edward Glaeser (2009): The causes and consequences of
land use regulation: Evidence from Greater Boston, Journal of Urban Economics
Land scarcity: attachment, speculation, regulations…, but, anything missing?
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011270,000
271,000
272,000
273,000
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276,000
277,000
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Parcel Number
Average Size
Parc
el N
umbe
r
Ave
rage
Siz
e (m
2)
Number and Areas of Privately-owned Land Parcels – Taipei City
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Neihu
NangangShilin
Beitou
Wensh
anXinyi
Zhongshan
Songshan
Daan
Zhongz...
Wanhua
Datong5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
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Parcel NumberAverage SizePa
rcel
Num
ber
Ave
rage
Siz
e (m
2)
Number and Areas of Privately-owned Land Parcels – by Districts
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Land Assembly likely Leads to The Anticommons Tragedy
Takatoshi Tabuchi (1996), Peter Colwell and Henry Munneke (1999), Tzuchin Lin and Alan Evans (2000)
Tota
l Pri
ce
Area
2V(A)
V(2A)
V(A)
2AA
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Land assembly implicit in the convex size-price function- any owner whose parcel is needed for development is on a
position to negate the project by refusing to sell- potential gains through land assembly allure all owners to
think strategically so as to convert their parcels to be the last key piece
- high transaction costs of land assembly likely induce a bias toward fragmentation in ownership.
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Anticommons
Heller (1998)- the danger of a property regime in which multiple owners
hold effective rights of exclusion in a scarce resource- individual owners within this regime are prone to exercise
their rights of exclusion that will in turn lead to an inefficient and under-utilized use of resources
- a potential tragedy
Jieming Zhu (2012)- owners’ strategy of holding land out of market nicely
exemplifies the possible tragedy of the anticommon
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Wanhua District needs to be Revitalized
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 130015
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25
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31
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ShongsanDaanZhongzheng
WanhuaDatong
Zhongshan
Wenshan Nangang
Neihu
Shilin
BeitouXinyi
Plot Size(m2)
Housing Age
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Plan Area: 39.5 hectaresDevelopable Area: 23 hectares
another attempt to empirically test the tragedy of anticommons- if this tragedy is in place-- assembly of small parcels into a larger and developable one will be difficult
therefore,- size of developed parcels is larger than that of undeveloped parcels- developed parcels largely come from assembly of small parcels- this assembly activity is labourious, time-consuming and even socially wasteful 13
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Article 193 of Regulation of Land Cadastre Surveying:The owner of abutting plots with similar land use can apply to have them merged into a single plot under sole ownership
The Size of Developed Parcels is Larger than Undeveloped Parcels
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
1988100
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Plot NumberAverage Size
Plot
Num
ber
Ave
rage
Siz
e (m
2)
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1-1031-40
61-70
91-100
121-130
151-160
181-190
211-220
241-250
271-280
301-310
331-340
361-370
391-400
501-550
651-700
801-850
951-1000
1201-1300
1501-1600
1801-19000%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Year of 1988
Developed
Undeveloped
Plot Size(m2)
%
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19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19880
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
50
100
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200
250
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Developed Average SizeUndeveloped Average SizeDeveloped Plot NumberUndeveloped Plot Number
Plot
Num
ber
Ave
rage
Siz
e (m
2)
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Land Parcels have been slowly but Persisently Assembled
Year Gini Year Gini Year Gini
1970 0.5978 1977 0.5664 1984 0.6006
1971 0.5980 1978 0.5653 1985 0.6063
1972 0.5972 1979 0.5672 1986 0.6153
1973 0.5993 1980 0.5712 1987 0.6195
1974 0.5974 1981 0.5783 1988 0.6277
1975 0.5964 1982 0.5800
1976 0.5989 1983 0.5970
180% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970197619771988Equality
19
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Gini Coefficient- on a steady rise from 1977 onwards when cadastral re-surveying took place- a long-term increase in unevenness of size distribution among parcels- an increasing dispersion of parcel sizes suggests frequent activities of assembly and partition of land- developers might either purchase a larger plot, or buy contiguous smaller plots (land assembly)
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Below 100
101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 501-600 601-1000 1001-2000
Above 2000
Below 100
101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 501-600 601-1000 1001-2000
Above 2000
Par-tition Frequency
0.3114754098360
66
0.3522727272727
27
0.6578947368421
05
0.8636363636363
64
1.1666666666666
7
1.25 1.5882352941176
5
1.0833333333333
3
1.8
As-sembly Frequency
0.5081967213114
75
1.25 3.3947368421052
6
4.0454545454545
5
4.4166666666666
7
6.25 4.6470588235294
1
4.1666666666666
7
2.2
Frequency of As-sembly and Par-tition
0.82 1.60 4.05 4.91 5.58 7.50 6.24 5.25 4.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.82
1.60
4.05
4.91
5.58
7.50
6.24
5.25
4.00Assembly FrequencyPartition FrequencyFrequency of As-sembly and Parti-tion
Plot Size(m2)
Frequency
- a total of 799 times of size change; including 627 times of land assembly and 172 times of land partition
- up to plots of 600 m2, the frequency of land assembly increases with plot size (scale of development project)
- the whole Wanhua train station areas will take 76 years to be fully developed
22
In Taipei, land supply is bound to be inelastic and parcel size to be slow in adjustment
This lengthy process of adjustments in parcel size has resulted in an inert response to the market, and possibly undesirable land uses
But- any coercive measure to force owners to sell his plot or merge it with others is fairly impractical, as recent cases have repeatedly demonstrated- sensible policies are therefore urgently called for
Wrestling between Urban Development and Property Rights is Inevitable
23
Thank your for listening!
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5-storey building
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Times
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