Measuring Quality in the BLS Business Register Richard Clayton David Talan Joint UNECE/OECD/Eurostat...

Measuring Quality in the BLS

Business Register

Richard ClaytonDavid Talan

Joint UNECE/OECD/Eurostat Meeting of the Group of Experts on Business Registers

Geneva, SwitzerlandSeptember 3-4, 2013

Outline

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program

Concepts and SourcesDimensions of QualityData Quality MetricsData Uses / UsersPublications

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Quarterly census of employers covered under UI and federal employers covered under UCFE

QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and

Wages

Quarterly data (frequent) Released 6.5 months after reference

period - timely 9.2 million records and growing 133 million in employment Units, employment and wages 6 digit NAICS and county, ownership UI based, mandatory collections to run

UI Wages - 98% reported data Employment - 97% reported data Units - 95% reported data

4

Investment in Quality

Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Administrative data from Unemployment

Insurance filings (UI) Huge investment in improving raw

administrative data Two supplemental collections

– ARS- Annual Refiling Survey– MWR- Multiple Worksite Report

QCEW Concepts

Employer

Establishment

Reporting unit

Multi-establishment employer

QCEW

Business Register Sources

UI Status Determination Form UI Quarterly Contribution Report

BLS Multiple Worksite Report BLS Federal Government Report BLS Annual Refiling Survey Forms

Status Determination Form

Data obtained:

UI account number

Business name Business

address Employer

identification number

Ownership status

Industry status Multi-

establishment employer status

Predecessor information

Quarterly UI Contribution Report

Data obtained:

Monthly employment Total wages Taxable wages Employer contributions

Multiple Worksite Report

Data obtained:

Establishment address Worksite description Monthly employment by

establishment Total wages by establishment

Annual Refiling Forms

Verify and update:

Industry codes Geographic codes Ownership status Business names and addresses Multi-establishment status

QCEW File

Submitted to BLS by States

Contains:

Business names and addresses Identification and classification information Employment and wage data

The QCEW File

Updates:

BLS Business Register Employment and wage data

Annual refiling code changes

BLS Business Register

Updated each quarter

9.2 million records

Longitudinally linked to create a time series for each establishment

BLS Business Register

Employers State UI Tax Unit

QCEWState

BLS Business Register (QCEW)

InitialStatus Forms

ContributionsReports

Federal Gov't Reports

Unit

Multiple WorksiteReports

QCEW File Deliverable

ARS Surveys

Business Register Data Flow

Independent Mechanism to Ensure Proper

Coverage

In 2012, 19.3 million weekly UI claims were filed. Each of these events ensures that QCEW

coverage is complete and the QCEW business register is able to capture new businesses in a timely fashion.

An average of 372,000 UI claims filed weekly

Dimensions of Quality

Quality – Measure of Reported Data

Relevant

Timely

Accurate

Data Quality: Setting Goals and

Standards

BLS Sets Data Quality Standards Communicates with BLS Regions and

States Prioritizes “focus” of data quality

Multiple Layers of Data Quality Review Federal-State Cooperative Program

BLS National Office BLS Regional Offices States

Quality-Cost Tradeoff

Cost Saving Initiatives Electronic Data Collection

– ARS and MWR ARS Collection via Contractor Touchtone Data Entry

19

Data Quality Metrics

Reports that Measure Data Quality Flash Report Business Register Metrics Report Historical Tracking

Flash Report Monitors data quality received from

States Number of reported units Number of imputations Number of prorations Number of missing units Number of records with invalid

area/county and industry codes Reports generated twice each quarter

Initial and Updated reports generated

22

Data Quality Metric: High Level of Reported

Data

Percentage of Unclassified NAICS in State B in Comparison to the National Average of Unclassified NAICS

Historical Tracking

Business Register Metrics

Generated after the data are linked Monitors:

System software Data quality Quality of analyst manual matches

Evaluates: The number and type of manual matches

(breakout/consolidation) Number of new QCEW businesses each quarter Number of births/deaths each quarter Number of unmatched records Number of weighted match records

25

Quality Metric: High Linkage Rates

2000Q

1

2000Q

4

2001Q

3

2002Q

2

2003Q

1

2003Q

4

2004Q

3

2005Q

2

2006Q

1

2006Q

4

2007Q

3

2008Q

2

2009Q

1

2009Q

4

2010Q

3

2011Q

2

2012Q

1

2012Q

4

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Percentage of Records Matched by SESA ID: 2000Q1-2012Q4

Timeliness

January 1 – March 31 = Reference Quarter

March 31 – April 30 = Reporting Period

May 1 – July 29 = UI Processing QCEW Extract from UI QCEW Edit & Review

July 30 – Sept 30 = State File sent to BLS BLS Review State Updates Received

October 7 = Publication

Lag = 6 months and 1 week

Accuracy

Thorough editing and review at the state, regional, and national levels each quarter

196 Interactive Edits State’s contact businesses to correct

questionable data and/or provide missing data

Development of new state system with even more powerful editing and review capabilities

Continuous Progress and Improvements

1991 –1992 : Multiple Worksite Reports - county Level

2001 : Longitudinal Database completed1998 – 2001 : NAICS Implemented2002 : Quarterly Publication Initiated2003 : Business Employment Dynamics

(BED): Geocoding started

2004 : NAICS History Released (Sept 2004)

4 Week Acceleration Completed 2005 : BED Firm Size Data2007 : NAICS 2007 Conversion (2007/Q1)2010 : QCEW Mapping Tool2012 : BED State Industry Data

UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis

UI-Covered Employment

Local Area Unemployment

Personal Income (BEA)

Gross Domestic Product (BEA)

Economic Forecasting

Current Employment Statistics

Occupational Employment Statistics

Job Creation/Destruction• Size Class Dynamics• Business Survival Rates

Geocoded Establishments

Occupational Employment Statistics

Occupational Safety and Health Statistics

Current Employment Statistics

National Compensation Survey

Industrial Price Program

Occupational Safety and Health Statistics

Programmatic Uses

Benchmarking(Employment Base)

General Economic Uses

Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Data (QCEW/

Analytical UsesSampling

Mass Layoff Statistics

State Revenue Projections

Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages

Local Economic Development Indicators

• Clusters Analysis• Shift Share• Industry Diversity Indexes• Location Quotients

Federal Funds Allocation$175 Billion(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)

Minimum Wage Studies

Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data (QCEW)

Local Economic Impact Response Planning

Local Government Services Planning

Interagency Data Uses• Improve CPS After 2000 Census• LEHD• Industry Code Sharing

Local Transportation Planning

Accessing the QCEW and BED Macrodata

BED: http://www.bls.gov/bdm/home.htm

QCEW: http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm

30

Contact Information

Richard ClaytonDavid Talan

Email: clayton.richard@bls.gov Email: talan.david@bls.gov

www.bls.gov/bdm