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Measuring Impacts of HIV/AIDS on African Rural Economies. T.S. Jayne Michigan State University Informal presentation at HSRC, Johannesburg July 13, 2004. Effective Response to HIV/AIDS Requires Knowledge of How Households Respond to the Disease. Three-pronged attack: Prevention Treatment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Measuring Impacts of HIV/AIDS
on African Rural Economies
T.S. JayneMichigan State University
Informal presentation at HSRC, JohannesburgJuly 13, 2004
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Effective Response to HIV/AIDS Requires Knowledge of How Households Respond to the
Disease• Three-pronged attack:
– Prevention– Treatment– Mitigation
• All depend on solid information on how individuals and households adapt and respond
• 20+ years after the onset of the disease, the empirical foundation for the design of programs is still weak
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Objectives
• To understand how affected households respond/adapt to prime-age mortality
• To measure impacts on– Family size and composition– Crop production– Non-farm income– Asset levels
• To consider implications for policy
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Characteristics of the national samples
Country Sample size Year(s) of surveys
Panel or cross-sectional
Kenya n=1422 n=1266
1997, 2000, 2002
Panel
Malawi n=420n=372
1990, 2002
Panel
Mozambique
n=4908 2002 Cross-section
Rwanda n=1395 2002 Cross-section
Zambia n=6922 2000 Cross-section
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
4
6
8
10
12
14
8 12 16 20 24 28
HIV+ prevalence rate, 1999
Adu
lt m
orta
lity
rate
199
6-20
01
CentralCopperbelt
Eastern
Luapula
Lusaka
Northern
Northwestern
Southern
Western
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
What have we learned so far about measuring impacts?
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Importance of panel (longitudinal) analysis
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pre-Mortality Post-Mortality
Afflicted hhsUnafflicted hhs
Importance of panel (longitudinal) analysis
Household income
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Finding #2
Afflicted households/individuals are not random• Early 1990s: positively correlated
with income, wealth, education, mobility
• More recent evidence: increasingly concentrated among the poor
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Per Capita Income Status of Afflicted Households (ex ante) -
Kenya
Deceased prime-age males
Deceased prime-age females
Poorest 25% 50.0 34.1
2nd quartile 19.6 14.6
3rd quartile 15.2 34.1
Wealthiest 25% 15.2 17.2
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Per Capita Income Status of Afflicted Households - Zambia
Deceased prime-age males
Deceased prime-age females
Poorest 25% 18.9 19.6
2nd quartile 23.6 24.9
3rd quartile 20.5 26.5
Wealthiest 25% 37.0 29.0
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Finding #3: Certain factors affect the magnitude of impacts
on households
• Strong evidence that impacts depend on:
– Initial level of household vulnerability (assets, wealth)
– Sex of the deceased– Position in household of deceased– Ability of household to attract new members– Characteristics of adults remaining in household
(e.g, skills, education level)
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Gender Effects of Mortality on Crop Cultivation
• In Kenya:– Death of male head - 0.9 acre to cash
crops (e.g., sugarcane, horticulture)– Death of female head - 1.8 acre to
cereals, tubers
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Effects of Death on Farm Production Sensitive to Gender, Position in HH
• Death of Male hh-head 68% reduction in value of crop output
• Death of Female head/spouse less dramatic but still negative effects
• Why Effects of Male Prime Age Mortality are Greater?– Loss of female ag. labor to caregiving– Loss of higher-return crops
• Death of other hh member – insignificant effects on ag.
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Finding #4
• In some countries, the majority of prime-age mortality is among older sons / daughters, not heads / spouses
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Position in household of deceased p.a. individuals
1585
2476
5842
5050
Zambia: head/spouse other
4456
5644
5347
4753
Rwanda: head/spouse other
1387
4060
6832
6040
Mozambique: head/spouse other
5248
5446
5545
3862
Malawi: head/spouse other
2773
5941
3467
2476
Kenya: head/spouse other
AfflictedM F
Non-afflictedM F
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Finding 5: Effects More Severe on the Poor
• Very few significant effects detected among households in top half of asset distribution
• Effects on ag production and non-farm income were larger and more highly significant among the poor
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Implications - I
• Not clear that afflicted households need or should be urged to use:– labor-saving crop technologies
• Why?– Afflicted hhs, on average, have as much labor
and land/labor ratios as non-affected hhs– crops / techniques that reduce labor input per
acre may sacrifice income and food produced per acre
– Must take into account population density and extent of under-employed labor
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Population Size, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)
Seven Most Highly Afflicted Countries
02468
101214161820
Males < 20
Males 20-59
Females < 20
Females 20-59
20002025
millions
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Implication - II
• Not clear that afflicted households should be urged to grow:– “more nutritious” foods
• Why?– Crops that maximize nutrition / kg produced ≠ – maximize nutrition / acre or income / acre-- need to take account of which crops provide
greatest return to land / labor in a given area
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
1,2502505Crop Y
1,00010010Crop X
Nutritional units per acre
Kgs produced per acre
Nutritional units / kg produced
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Summary
• Adult mortality’s greatest effects are:– On the relatively poor– When male head dies – When death is other than the hh
head/spouse, the household is better able to draw back other members to help the hh adjust
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
What are we learning about “community effects”:
• What determines community “resilience”?• Local institutions/traditions influence
resilience– Example of sugarcane outgrower programs in
Kenya– Land tenure / land inheritance
• H0: resilience is influenced by• Initial level of poverty in community • Rules governing women’s rights and access to resources
– e.g. can widows retain land after husband’s death?
• Matrilineal vs. patrilineal effects
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Need for appropriate balance between:
• Investing in long-term productivity growth (education, infrastructure, markets)
vs• Targeted assistance to affected HHs
• Pro-poor development is important to mitigate economic effects of HIV/AIDS
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
“Difference-in-Difference” Approach
y - x
y y2 y1
x x2 x1
difference
Afflicted households
Households not afflicted
Difference
20001997
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Adult Mortality Rates - Women
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Women 15-24 Women 25-34 Women 35-44
ExpectedKenyaKisumu / Siaya
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Adult Mortality Rates - Men
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Men 15-24 Men 25-34 Men 35-44
ExpectedKenyaKisumu/Siaya
Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Country
Non-Affected
HHs
HH with Male Death
HH with Female Death
Kenya (1997 ex ante) 23.4% 28.3% 21.0%
Kenya (2000 ex post) 22.0% 34.5% 16.2%
Mozambique (2002 ex post)* 28.0% 32.0% 26.0%
Rwanda (2002 ex post) 32.0% 32.0% 28.0%
Zambia (2000 ex post)* 35.0% 26.0% 32.0%
Notes:
Table 10. Percentage of Area Cultivated to Roots & Tubers by Country for Households With and With a PA Death
* for Moz and Zambia, this is % of cultivated area in cassava, only including households which grow cassava
---- mean value ----
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