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MDES
LMI
Welcome
Please sit wherever you would like
MDES
LMI
Word on the street is you been askin’ a
lotta questions about LMI…
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LMI
LMI.. What you should know
Presented by…. Bill McNeece
MS Dept of Employment Security
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LMI
LMI
What is it?Where does it come
from?How can you use it?
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One Popular Opinion
LLMMII
argely
ade Up
nformation
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But, seriously, folks …
What is it
—
Really?
What is it
—
Really?
LLMMII
abor
arketnformation
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The Textbook Definition
A dynamic and systematic
approach to workforce data —
designed to meet the changing
needs of our customers.
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In Layman’s Terms
Or, to put it more simply …
Basically, it’s any data or analysis that relates to the workforce.
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LMI ????????????
Unfortunately, you do
LMI data is the gas that fuels the ALMIS Data Base
engine
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What’s our goal today?
To help YOU…. Navigate thru the LMI Lingo
Understand the Data Sources
Avoid Heartburn and Keep Your Sanity
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Your Training Modules Today:
Learning the Lingo
Who Makes this Stuff Up?
Avoiding Heartburn
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Ready to get started?
Let’s take a look at the first module
the
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Feel Bombarded with Acronyms?
Americans DO love their acronyms!
But sometimes it makes things hard to understand
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Did you know?
Acronym is actually an ACRONYM itself!Abbreviations
Created
Routinely
Once every
New
York
Minute
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Before we get very far
We need to wade through some Alphabet Soup so you won’t think I’m speaking a foreign language
These are some common acronyms tossed around in LMI
circles
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Alphabet Soup
BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis
BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics
CPI = Consumer Price Index
CES = Current Employment Statistics
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Alphabet Soup
CPS = Current Population Survey
ECI = Employer Cost Index
ETA = Employment & Training Administration
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Alphabet Soup
LAUS = Local Area Unemployment Statistics
LMA = Labor Market Area
MLS= Mass Layoff Statistics
MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area
NAICS = North American Industry Classification System
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Alphabet Soup
OES= Occupational Employment Statistics
PPI = Producers Price Index
SIC = Standard Industry Classification
SOC = Standard Occupational Classification
QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
(a.k.a ES 202)
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Alphabet Soup
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LMI Lingo
Must crawl before we walk
We’ll start with some basic terms and concepts
In other words, all you wanted to know but were afraid to ask
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Labor Force Terms & Concepts
EmployedWorked at least one hour for payDuring the week that includes the 12th
Unemployed No job attachmentAvailable for work & actively
seeking itCan be experienced or
a new or re-entrant
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This employment tallies workers whose wages have been “covered” for UI purposes (i.e., the employer paid unemployment insurance on the
wages paid to the individual)
Used only in QCEW data
Covered Employment
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An estimate or count of employment based on the location of the job regardless of the worker’s residence
Also called Nonag Wage and Salary or Nonfarm Employment
This counts jobs, not people Used in QCEW, OES and CES data
EmploymentPlace of work
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An estimate of employment based on where the employee lives, rather than where they work
This is a count of people not jobs
Used in calculating the labor force
Used only in LAUS data
EmploymentPlace of Residence
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Labor Force Terms & Concepts
Civilian Labor Force 16+ years old Employed + Unemployed Does NOT include military personnel
Unemployment rate Unemployed ÷ Labor Force
Expressed as %
Labor Force Participation rate Labor Force ÷ Working Age Population
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Labor Force Terms & Concepts
Labor Market Area
Groups of counties that encompass the county of residence and the county of work.
Defined by:
Commuting patterns The behavior of
individuals included in American Community Survey, Census and UI claims data when compared to other data.
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This pertains to the actual wages earned by persons working for a “covered” employer
In other words, someone for whom unemployment tax has been paid
Used only in QCEW data
Covered Wages
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Benchmark
Establishing a new reference point, from which estimates are
calculated and/or revised, based on last known data.
Very similar to the census process
Only LAUS & CES do this
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Coding Systems
Why code data?
Why revise coding structures?
Types of coding: Geography Industry Occupation
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Objectives of Coding Systems
Often designed to meet specific labor program needs
Ideally, a single system would meet all programmatic needs
Updating should be timely and cost-effective
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Geographic Coding Systems
Only one major system in common usage:
FIPS – Federal Information Processing System Developed by U.S. Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) Commonly used by almost all federal and local agencies Consists of codes for states, MSA’s, counties and cities,
townships, etc. Some GIS software applications use FIPS
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Industry Coding Systems
Types: Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) North American
Industrial Classification System (NAICS)
Shifting from SIC to NAICS Conversion now
complete Benefits Program impacts
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WHY NAICS?
Six-digit system, instead of four
Instead of 10 major industry groups, there are 20 industrial sectors.
More consistent with other international systems and other classification systems used by BEA.
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Occupational Coding Systems
DOT — Dictionary of Occupational Titles Phased out in 2002 – 2003
OES — Occupational Employment StatisticsSOC — Standard Occupational Code
O*NET — Occupational Information Network
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LMI Lingo
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Next on our agenda is…
Who makes this stuff up?
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Just where do the numbers come from?
Mostly from BLS
programs
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Just who or what IS BLS?Just who or what IS BLS?
Contrary to popular opinion, they are NOT the Bureau of Lying Sapsuckers!
In reality, they are the BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, an arm of the US Department of Labor
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As states, why are we As states, why are we involved with a Federal involved with a Federal agency?agency?
They operate what is known as the Federal/State Cooperative Programs
Under these, they provide the funding for our base statistical programs
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Historical BackgroundHistorical Background
BLS has been around in one form or another for over a hundred years.
However, they only took control over the LMI programs in the mid-1970’s
They provide both funding and technical support
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LMI Produces lots of different LMI Produces lots of different
stuffstuff
Does BLS control ALL our LMI programs?
Not in most states. They are only
responsible for FIVE basic statistical
programs. Anything else is funded and controlled by some
other entity
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Which five does BLS Which five does BLS control?control?
QCEW CES LAUS OES MLS
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There you go with There you go with the acronyms again!the acronyms again!
In plain English, tell me what those stand for
And while you’re at it, tell me a little bit about each of them
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Okay, let’s begin with QCEWOkay, let’s begin with QCEW
It’s official name is the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
It’s commonly called ES 202 because the original report it was required to produce was Employment Security Report Number 202
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What exactly does the What exactly does the QCEW program produce?QCEW program produce?
Detailed quarterly employment and payroll information for all employers covered under UI law.
Annual information on changes in industry codes that occur during the year
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Data Sources for QCEW
UI quarterly contribution reports
UCFE federal agency employment reports
Comes to ALMIS DB via EQUI report
Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices
Multiple establishment detail (MWR)
Industrial coding (annual refile survey)
Follow-ups triggered by edits
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How does QCEW How does QCEW differ from other differ from other programs?programs?
Unlike LAUS, QCEW counts JOBS not PEOPLE
Jobs are counted at the work site
It’s the only program that lists total wages paid
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Uses of QCEW Data Employment
benchmark for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs — CES, OES & OSHA
Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal income State and national
domestic product
Local planning Only consistent
source of county employment and wages by industry
Any employment analysis requiring detailed data
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QCEW Limitations & Changes
Some employment for large firms may be reported in the wrong areas (MWR’s)
Some firms report total number of employees in a quarter as employment for each month
QCEW is not a time series No wedging of changes by industry or area
from:Annual refile surveyChanges in multi-establishment reporting
Shift to NAICS — Break in series
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QCEW Chronology
Data files produced QUARTERLY
Once completed they are NOT revised
Changes in industry designation only done ANNUALLY
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QCEW
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Next on the agenda …
Which stands for: Current Employment Statistics
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What is it? What is it?
The Current Employment Statistics program is a monthly employer survey conducted by the states in cooperation with BLS.
The survey provides a sample from which estimates of employment, hours and earnings by industry group are calculated
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What does it produce?What does it produce?
Today, the CES program produces employment, hours and earnings estimates for all states and MSA’s.
It is the largest survey of its kind, with a nationwide sample of over 400,000 firms!
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Coverage Differences Between CES & QCEW
The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not in QCEWFull commission salespersons
Elected and appointed government officials
Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts
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CES Limitations & Changes
Sample size limits state & area industry detail
Sum of states’ employment does not equal national total
Estimates for many sub-state areas are not funded
Though accuracy exceeds that of other economic data, benchmark revisions still cause criticism
Earnings are for production workers & not available for many state industries
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CES Chronology
Data produced MONTHLY
Current month is PRELIMINARY, previous month is REVISED
Entire calendar year data set is benchmarked and revised ANNUALLY
Benchmark revisions include prior year, also
Hours and earnings data are revised monthly but NOT BENCHMARKED
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Current Employment Statistics
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Moving right along …
We come to
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Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
An annual employer survey which produces employment and wage-rate estimates by occupation and industry for states and areas
Program began in 1971 in 15 states with BLS and ETA sharing responsibility with the states
When BLS took total federal responsibility for the program, all 50 states began to participate
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OES
In 1996, the following changes were made:
Sample increased to be the largest of any employer survey
Wage rates were added for all states & sub-state areas
All industries surveyed each year, rather than every 3rd year
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OES Staffing Estimates
Employment by occupation is tallied for each industry sector
Staffing ratios are developed representing each occupation’s share of each industry sector’s employment
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OES Wage Rate Estimates
Data tallied by wage ranges
Wage-rate averages generated using weighted system of averaging
Prior-year data “aged” using the Employer Cost Index
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OES Limitations
Since it is voluntary, low response rates can make it less reliable in some industry sectors
Estimates for sub-state areas dependent on sample size and response rates
Wages are tallied by range
Sample size limits state & area industry detail in many cases
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Occupational Employment Statistics
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State and Area Occupational Projections
A very important byproduct of the OES data
NOT a BLS funded project
Money comes from Employment & Training Administration…another branch of the US Department of Labor
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State & Area Occupational Projections
Produces both the INDPRJ and IOMATRIX data sets
Short-term — up to 2 years
Long-term — roughly 10 years
In some states unit may also be responsible for occupational wage data
Substate areas vary widely from state to state
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Projections Chronology
New data sets now released twice a year
Short term and long term projections not necessarily released at same time
Release times vary widely from state to state
Data are not subject to benchmark revisions
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The fourth BLS program is
which stands for ________________________________Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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Just what is LAUS?Just what is LAUS?
The name can be misleading since it deals with more than just unemployment data, such as the often-quoted unemployment rate.
The Local Area Unemployment Statistics program is a multi-layered process that produces labor force, employed and unemployed estimates by place of residence
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What does the LAUS What does the LAUS program produce?program produce?
Estimates of total civilian labor force, employed, unemployed and unemployment rate for all states, MSA’s, counties, and other similar areas, adjusted to place of residence
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Betcha didn’t know…
Estimation method varies depending on the type of geography
U.S. data comes directly from the monthly Current Population Survey
Statewide data (since 1986) comes from a regression model developed by BLS
County level data are apportioned out of the statewide data using a handbook method
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Why do methods vary?
CPS allows for more detailed information at the national level, such as data by gender, race, age group, etc.
CPS was used for larger states at one time, but trend was erratic and regression model was instituted in late 1980’s
Regression models are not reliable for smaller areas, such as counties and cities
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Sub-state LAUS Estimates
Handbook method used to apportion out county level estimates from statewide totals
Population-claims method used where possible for estimates of larger cities
Census-share method used for smaller cities and sub-county estimates when claims data are not available
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How do LAUS estimates How do LAUS estimates differ from others?differ from others?
Includes agricultural workers, self employed and others excluded by CES & QCEW
CES & QCEW estimate JOBS at work site; LAUS estimates PEOPLE at place of residence
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LAUS Limitations
Limited statistical measures of reliability
Handbook methodology assumes local areas follow national trends
Estimates for employment are probably more accurate than for unemployment
No detailed data, such as gender, age, etc.
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LAUS Chronology
Data produced monthly
Current month is PRELIMINARY, previous month is REVISED
Entire calendar year data set is benchmarked and revised ANNUALLY
Benchmark revisions may include prior years, also
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Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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Last (but not necessarily least)
we come to
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Mass Layoff Statistics
Began life as PMLPC in the early 80’s
Intent was to track serious layoffs and closings by industry using UI claims dataNot very useful for Rapid Response
Good post-occurrence analytical tool
Many states don’t have enough activity to publish data
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BLS Programs
Okay…..That covers the BLS generated stuff…..
What about all the other data sets in the ALMIS DB?
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“Other” data sets
Occupational licensing data – Sources vary by state
Census data (www.census.gov)Most can be downloaded in Excel format
State data center can be helpful
Training provider and completer data –Sources vary by state
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“Other” data sets
Income data – downloadable from BEA web site.
Crosswalk tables – Direct from National Crosswalk Data Center in Iowa
Employer database – provided via contract with InfoUSA – updates automatic
URL links to other states
Okay… I dig the data now, but how do I keep it all straight without going postal and doing something crazy?
Fair question...
and it leads to our last module…..
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Top Three Tips
1) Get a handle on Benchmarking procedures
2) Understand the data flow
3) Understand the BLS vs ETA issues
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To elaborate...Know the timing of data sets
from BLSKnow who provides, when and
in what formatDon’t be blind-sided by
revisions
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Benchmarking
Know the time frame for benchmarking for CES and LAUS
Understand the scopeDouble check data to insure it
is the most current benchmark
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BLS vs ETARealize they don’t like each
other very muchUnderstand the ‘turf wars’Don’t expect them to cooperate
and make your life easier
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Almost done
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Th-th-th-that’s all Th-th-th-that’s all folks!folks!
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Applause !!
For further assistance contact:
Bill McNeece – Special Projects
LMI Department - MS Department of Employment Security
Phone: 601 321 6249
E-mail: bmcneece@mdes.ms.gov
NO EXTRA CHARGE !!
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