MBSDMP Cross-cutting considerations

Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection, Northern Manila bay

TC meeting – January 16, 2020

MBSDMP – Cross-cutting considerations

Project Overview

1945

Manila Bay Area – the Future w

ha

twil

lha

pp

en

?

Manila Bay Area – the Future w

ha

twil

lha

pp

en

?

Manila Bay Area – the Future

2015 2022 2030 2040 2055

Spatial model preliminary results 2015 2022 2030 2040 2055

Reference case population (million) 32.8 36.6 41.2 45.9 50.4

Land reclamations case population (million) 32.8 36.9 41.6 46.4 51.1

Reference case urban area fraction (%) 13.8% 16.3% 19.2% 22.8% 28.0%

Land reclamations case urban area fraction (%) 13.8% 16.5% 19.4% 23.0% 28.3%

wh

atw

illh

ap

pe

n?

Manila Bay Area – the Future D

ou

bli

ng

oft

he

urb

an

are

a!

2015 2055

Manila Bay Area – the Future with reclamations

2015 2055

Do

ub

lin

go

fth

eu

rba

na

rea

!

Key Project Pillars

▪ Manage the New Cities▪ Strict building codes

▪ Solid waste, sewer, piped water

▪ Avoid doubling the problem

▪ Fix the “current problems”▪ Solid waste

▪ Waste water

▪ Scale-up the management

▪ Municipality associations

Manage the New Cities, the new Manila Bay

Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration – with the Benefits for Coastal

Communities

Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection, Northern Manila bay

Manila Bay Area – a vulnerable place

sinking

Options for Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration - with Benefits for marginalized Fishing Communities

DRR – Ecosystems – Biodiversity – Flooding Coastal Inclusive Growth

The land is sinking - even before the Climate Change Sea-level Rise has kicked in

November 2002 February 2018

Pampanga sinking

Building on top of houses

Pampanga sinking, Pedring 2011

Pedring 2011: peak discharge of 2800 m3/s and Manila Bay with a storm surge enhanced tide of 1.8

m above MSL.

NOAH 2013

Indonesia sinking Jakarta

Semarang

Jakarta Immediate government responseNew flood defence

November 26,

2007December 23,

2007

November 15,

2008

November 15,

2008

Jakarta again new flood defence 2017

Semarang – 3000 ha back to the sea

Original resources

Potential 1:100 flood area 2040 including urban growth, sea level rise and land subsidence

Intertidal nature-based coastal defense

Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration - with Benefits for marginalized Fishing Communities

Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning

Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning Pampanga at Bataan Border

Combining all: Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning

▪ First coastal zone very difficult to protect due to ▪ land subsidence: 1 – 1.5 meters by 2040

▪ Sea level rise: 1.10 meter by 2100 (IPCC 2019)

▪ Many coastal fishponds marginal and / or abandoned

▪ Current coastline unclear

▪ First coastal zone very high potential for▪ Livelihood restoration

▪ Ecosystem and habitat restoration and development

▪ Stepping stone towards sustainable fish stocks and biodiversity

▪ The current coast line already moved inland▪ What is the most effective “line of defense”

wh

atd

ow

ew

an

t?

Towards sustainable measures

Ma

na

ge

d r

etr

ea

t z

on

e a

nd

ne

w

sh

ore

lin

e (

ind

ica

tiv

e)

Implementation of strict urban develop-ment

moratorium is needed to prevent huge

population increase. Otherwise population in the

managed retreat zone will increase from about

102,000 in 2015 to 623,000 people by 2040

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

DRR zone 1

Towards sustainable measures

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

DRR zone 1

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

DRR zone 1

Livelihood

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

DRR zone 1

Livelihood

Eco/natural system restoration zone

Towards sustainable measures

Coastal Protection zone

DRR zone 1

Livelihood

Eco/natural system restoration zone

Sustainable fish resources

Towards motivation and understanding

▪ Assist all people to move to safer (higher) places▪ Encourage the people to leave the First Coastal Zone

▪ But also assist the people that need and/or decide to stay in the First Coastal Zone

▪ Discourage development of new urban area in the First Coastal Zone

▪ Assist the LGUs to create safer places above ‘the ‘urban’ defense line’ ▪ Stop the groundwater abstraction

▪ Raise the land

▪ Encourage the people to move to better places

▪ Develop proper evacuation zones, shelters

▪ Assist and motivate local fishpond owners to handover for the livelihood and safety of Manila Bay▪ Move fish production to more profitable areas

▪ Add a Sustainable Resources Management organization

▪ A blue-print for the LGU coastal ordinances

Wh

at i

sre

qu

ire

d?

Bulacan Airport ‘a certainty’

On top of important MB resources

Connect with remaining MB resources?

Restore and rebuild livelihoods?

Compensation?

Dredging for Hongkong?Better keep your resources for safer cities

Combining all: Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning

▪ What short-term solutions and concrete advantages for the coastal towns?

▪ What are guidelines to the form and content of a general coastal ordinance?

▪ How should we protect the natural livelihoods for the local communities?

▪ How to deal with ground water extraction and ground subsidence?▪ What are realistic options for alternative water sources in the future

▪ How are we going to realize the cross-cutting:

“Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection

in Northern Manila bay”

▪ ? Create a Manila Bay resilience fund?▪ Mobilize/dedicate part of the PSF?

wh

atd

ow

ew

an

t?

Thank You

To change the people a combined supported

vision is required

- MBSDMP

Ma

na

ge

d r

etr

ea

t z

on

e a

nd

ne

w

sh

ore

lin

e (

ind

ica

tiv

e)

Implementation of strict urban develop-ment

moratorium is needed to prevent huge

population increase. Otherwise population in the

managed retreat zone will increase from about

102,000 in 2015 to 623,000 people by 2040

LGU summaryMunicipality

Total area (ha)Managed retreat zone Population in retreat zone by year

Code Municipality Area (ha) % of total area 2015 2022 2030 2040PH030801000 ABUCAY 7,697 439 6% 2,742 6,086 8,525 8,563

PH030803000 CITY OF BALANGA (Capital) 8,968 323 4% 2,024 3,913 3,712 3,514

PH030805000 HERMOSA 14,912 87 1% 446 362 270 626

PH030806000 LIMAY 6,075 4 0% 294 184 159 152

PH030807000 MARIVELES 19,451 14 0% 107 72 74 75

PH030809000 ORANI 5,371 860 16% 6,496 15,613 18,587 23,527

PH030810000 ORION 8,972 8 0% 297 250 191 227

PH030811000 PILAR 4,560 380 8% 1,288 7,291 12,841 17,191

PH030812000 SAMAL 4,756 322 7% 1,347 2,597 4,483 11,643

PH031405000 BULACAN 7,237 5,161 71% 8,602 10,537 16,301 29,147

PH031409000 HAGONOY 8,345 5,230 63% 5,156 15,771 23,899 43,391

PH031410000 CITY OF MALOLOS (Capital) 7,088 1,875 26% 5,298 13,673 18,636 42,546

PH031412000 CITY OF MEYCAUAYAN 3,179 80 3% 236 210 308 819

PH031414000 OBANDO 1,621 1,240 76% 2,130 43,629 64,668 87,933

PH031416000 PAOMBONG 4,531 2,874 63% 4,013 9,955 11,986 20,688

PH035408000 LUBAO 16,517 6,463 39% 7,018 11,681 16,445 37,233

PH035410000 MACABEBE 9,031 6,377 71% 11,310 18,946 20,325 30,898

PH035412000 MASANTOL 6,765 6,079 90% 23,180 59,346 71,306 99,767

PH035414000 MINALIN 5,206 117 2% - - - -

PH035422000 SASMUAN (Sexmoan) 4,012 3,493 87% 9,704 17,370 21,886 35,964

PH042103000 BACOOR CITY 4,903 1 0% 311 239 239 239

PH042105000 CAVITE CITY 1,188 107 9% 2,664 2,699 2,987 3,369

PH042111000 KAWIT 1,597 382 24% 1,790 24,260 26,195 12,940

PH042116000 NOVELETA 516 33 6% 75 1,648 1,759 1,528

PH042117000 ROSARIO 801 9 1% 2,183 2,398 2,398 2,349

PH133901000 TONDO I / II 1,102 26 2% 54 59 100 144

PH137502000 CITY OF MALABON 1,577 125 8% 1,110 15,049 17,662 20,281

PH137503000 CITY OF NAVOTAS 1,054 505 48% 2,672 64,771 76,592 88,388

Total 167,032 42,612 26% 102,544 348,610 442,533 623,143