View
36
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Matthew Martin March 17, 2008. NATIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate. 4Q 0.6%. Average Forecast* 4Q 2007 - 4Q 2008. *Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast. TOTAL HOME SALES - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
NATIONAL
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Matthew MartinMarch 17, 2008
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Average Forecast*4Q 2007 - 4Q 2008
4Q0.6%
*Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus forecast
3
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
2006 2007 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 2.1 0.6 3.8 4.9 0.6
Personal Consumption Expenditures 3.9 3.7 1.4 2.8 1.9
Nonresidential Fixed Investment -1.4 2.1 11.0 9.3 6.9 Structures 7.4 6.4 26.2 16.4 14.7 Equipment and Software -4.9 0.3 4.7 6.2 3.3
Residential Fixed Investment -17.2 -16.3 -11.8 -20.5 -25.2 Exports of Goods and Services 14.3 1.1 7.5 19.1 4.8 Imports of Goods and Services 1.6 3.9 -2.7 4.4 -1.9 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment 3.5 -0.5 4.1 3.8 2.2 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.2
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2000) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 17.4 0.1 5.8 30.6 -10.1
Net Exports of Goods and Services -597.3 -612.1 -573.9 -533.1 -506.8
4
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
TOTAL HOME SALES(New and Existing Homes)
Millions of Homes
Jan.4.9 mil.
Average Annual Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
5
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS
Millions of Starts
Jan.1.35 mil.
Average Annual Housing Starts: 1990 through 1999
Starts
Completions
1.01 mil.
6
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: U.S. National
% Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-00=100
0706050403020100999897
Source: S&P/Case Shiller /Haver Analytics 03/12/08
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
7
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
4400
INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKET INDEXES
Stock Index
Mar. 7
US: S&P 500(Left Scale)
Germany: DAX 100(Right Scale)
Stock Index
Japan: TOPIX(Left Scale)
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
CRUDE OIL PRICESCurrent Dollars / Barrel
Futures Price
Spot Price
Mar. 7
9
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons
Jan. & Feb. Avg.
Monthly Change
Feb -63
Jan -22
Dec -41
Nov 60
Oct 140
10
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Percent
Feb.4.8%
11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Month over Month % Change
Income
Expenditures
PERSONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURESYear over Year % Change
Real PersonalIncome
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Jan.
Dec
0.1
0.0
Jan
-0.1
0.0
Nov
-0.4
0.2
* December 2004 real disposable income figure excludes the Microsoft dividend. Also, Aug. and Sep. 2005 figures are adjusted for effects of Hurricane Katrina.
12
180
200
220
240
260
280
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
180
200
220
240
260
280
REAL PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE
Billions of 2000$, deflated using the price index for private fixed investment structures
Twelve-Month Moving Average
Jan.
13
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
CORE CAPITAL GOODS SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS(Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft)
Current $, Billions
Shipments
Jan.
New Orders
14
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
RISK PREMIUM, HIGH YIELD
Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate CCC and lower bond yield - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
Mar. 7
10 Year Average Risk Premium
15
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
RISK PREMIUM
Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
Mar. 7
10 Year Average Risk Premium
16
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Current $, Billions
Jan.$-58.2 bil.
Twelve-Month Moving Average
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
REAL CRUDE OIL PRICES
Current $/Barrel Deflated by PCE Price Index
Jan.
18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Year over Year % Change
All Items
Core CPI
Jan.4.3%
2.5%
19
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
TIPS Inflation CompensationPercent
Mar. 7
5-Year
5-Year5 Years Ahead
20
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
REAL FEDERAL FUNDS RATEPercent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index
Jan.
21
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
EXPECTED FEDERAL FUNDS RATEAS IMPLIED BY FINANCIAL FUTURES CONTRACTS
Percent
Mar. 7, 2008
Feb. 13, 2008
Current Target Rate
Recommended