Market Study — Bain & Company - TMS Study — Bain & Company * In 1994 Ipsen commissioned...

Market Study — Bain & Company *

In 1994 Ipsen commissioned Bain & Company to perform a detailed market study ($0.5 million) for the Process Heating Industry

Results denoted that market would QuadrupleQuadruplefor the period 1996 to 2005 (10 years) due to very fast growth in the Automotive, Aerospace, Steel and Aluminum sectors

* Courtesy of M. Ciampini - CEO Ipsen34

• Automotive - General Motors Sourced 9% of Their Aluminum Wheels for the U.S. Market, From China in 2003. Hope to Source 40% by 2006.

• Aerospace - Lower Technology Castings for Jet Engines are Being Produced in China - you can Expect Higher Technology Parts to Follow.

China Rapidly Penetrating Other Metal Processing Industries Historically

Done in the United States - Examples:

35Credit: D. Graber, Huffy

China, at the Current Time, is not without its issues as a supply base

- current top five are:

• Raw Material Inflation (Steel, Resins, etc.)• Export Rebates Being Reduced• Infrastructure Lagging (Power Shortages, etc.)• Currency (Probably Undervalued)• Political Uncertainty

Credit: D. Graber, Huffy36

Annual GDP Growth in China

8.8%7.8%

7.1%8.0% 7.3% 8.0%

8.8% 8.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E

37

Productivity

38Credit: Dan Twarog, NADCA

Crisis and Opportunity…. JI

R. W. Cahn, “Physical Metallurgy: Where is it Headed”, JOM V 55, No. 5, May 2003, pp 24-2539

OUTLINE___________________________________

• Materials the “Touchstone” of Civilizations• Historical Milestones - Agrarian; Industrial; WWI;

WWII; Cold War; post-Cold War• The Society of “Tomorrow” - Crisis and Opportunities• Materials and Societal Issues - Our Responsibilities

Housing/FoodTransportation/Environmental Packaging/RecyclingHealth

• A Materials Agenda for the Society of “Tomorrow”R&D OpportunitiesEducational Opportunities

40

Housing:Materials & Construction

41

42

Material and Design Innovations

Think Globally Act Locally …

43

Smart Materials

44

Opportunities for Innovative Materials& Construction Design …

Monolithic Dome 45

46

Transportation… and oil dependency!

1973: US imported 30% of its oilToday: 60% comes from foreign sources

When we last paid attention to oil efficiency…

1977-1985: oil use fell 17% while GDP grew 27%oil imports fell 50%imports from the Persian Gulf fell 87%

Today… inefficient light trucks and cars consume 40% of our oil

Ultralight and ultrastrong materials for vehicles are the # 1 enabling technology

Toyota Prius is an excellent example

INNOVATIONS

Model U Ford hybrid-electric

2005 Escape SUV Hybrid

47

Lightweight - Strong - Recyclable Materials

Baypreg ® Resin

MB A Class

48Courtesy: Bayer Polymers

49

Courtesy IOM3

Foresight Studies

Energy Sources

“A Great Wall of Waste”

Courtesy: China’s Environment

The EconomistAugust 21, 2004

50

Growth, Industrialization …. And the Bad News!

51

Burning of Fossil Fuels … Air Pollution

Boston, MAOmsk, Russia

52

53

Toyota HeadquartersTorrance CA

60% more energy Efficient Than CA’s tough statutes Require.

Solar Panel Technology

GENZYME HEADQUARTERSCAMBRIDGE, MA

RECYCLING/PACKAGING

54

MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE - USA

55

56Source: Handbook of Solid Waste Management

57Source: JOM August 2004

58

Courtesy IOM3

Foresight Studies

Courtesy IOM 3 - Foresight Studies 59

60

Courtesy IOM3

Foresight Studies

OUTLINE___________________________________

• Materials the “Touchstone” of Civilization• Historical Milestones - Agrarian; Industrial; WWI;

WWII; Cold War; post-Cold War• The Society of “Tomorrow” - Crisis and Opportunities• Materials and Societal Issues - Our Responsibilities

Housing & FoodTransportation/Environmental Packaging/RecyclingHealth

• A Materials Agenda for the Society of “Tomorrow”R&D OpportunitiesEducational Opportunities

61

62

Advocacy Role for MSE

• TMS - P&GA; FMS; NMAB• Make the Case!• Need for Support from:

FoundationsWorld BankFederal Government

Materials Science and Engineering -provider of “enabling toolkits” for

impending and burgeoningsocietal issues

Recommended Initiatives

Sustainable construction materials

Energy storage materials

Sensors

Technical textiles

Functional materials

Biomaterials/drug delivery

Packaging materials

Recycling63

Dis

cipl

inar

y Re

sear

ch

64

“The empires of the futures

are the empires of the mind.”

Winston Churchill

65

MSE community has a responsibility to take on an advocacy role.

MSE Community’s R&D agenda should be pro-active.

In addition to defense and industrial needs, we need to address societalissues such as housing, transportation, food, and health related issues.

Message

66