Market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products

Patrick WesthoffFAPRI

University of Missouriwesthoffp@missouri.edu

2009 International Sweetener ColloquiumOrlando, February 9, 2009

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. Prices expressed on a Sep.-Aug. year basis.

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008

Source: Renewable Fuels Association. Note: Excludes plants that have been built but that are not operating.

FAPRI November 2008 estimates

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008.

*To meet air quality requirements and state mandates

Source: FAPRI-projections, Nov. 2008. Assumes tariffs and tax credits extendedNotes: RFS adjusted for shortfall in cellulosic production relative to mandate; one

gallon of biodiesel assumed to count as 1.5 gallons of biofuel

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Futures, 6/6/08, March 2009 contracts:NYMEX petroleum: $136.93-$5.00 basis; CBOT corn: $6.92-$0.40 basis

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Futures, 1/27/09, March 2009 contracts:NYMEX petroleum: $41.58-$3.00 basis; CBOT corn: $3.77-$0.25 basis

To contact me: westhoffp@missouri.edu

FAPRI-Missouri website: www.fapri.missouri.edu