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Market Data Book March 2019
1
Disclaimer
The contents of this document, including summary notes, quotes, data and other information, are provided solely for informational purposes of
market condition and not intended for the purpose of soliciting investment in, or as a recommendation to purchase or sell, any specific products.
When you invest, please make decision by your own judgement and responsibility.
Please be aware that matters described herein may change or cease to exist without prior notice of any kind. This document contains forward-
looking statements and anticipations of future results, based on current assumptions and beliefs in light of currently available information and
resources. Risks and uncertainties, both known and unknown, including those relating to the future performance of the real estate market in Japan,
interest rate fluctuations, competitive scenarios, and changing regulations or taxation, may cause Kenedix Residential Investment Corporation
(KDR)'s actual results, performance, achievements and financial performance to be materially different from those explicitly or implicitly expressed in
this document.
With respect to any and all terms herein, including without limitation, this document, the information provided is intended to be thorough. However,
no assurance or warranties are given with respect to the accuracy or completeness thereof.
Neither KDR nor Kenedix Real Estate Fund Management, Inc. (KFM) shall be liable for any errors, inaccuracies, loss or damage, or for any actions
taken in reliance thereon, or undertake any obligation to publicly update the information contained in this document after the date of this
document.
Revised editions of our annual reports will be posted on our website if there should be major corrections going forward.
2
Index
1. Economy trend
Real GDP growth rate and annual contribution to change in GDP
p.3
CPI (YoY) p.4
Employment environment p.5
Wage indices (YoY) p.6
CPI and private house rent (YoY) p.7
Correlation with private house rent p.8
2. Asset trend
-a. Demand
Net inflow of residents into Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan
p.9
Residents growth rate in Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan (YoY)
p.10
Population by age group p.11
Types of households p.12
Principal households and households in rental apartments (non-wooden)
p.13
Housing stock in Japan p.14
Households in owner-occupied housing and private rental housing by floor space
p.15
Households in rental apartments (non-wooden) by person and floor space
p.16
House ownership rate by age group p.17
Percentage of age group in owner-occupied households
p.18
-b. Supply
Construction of rental apartments p.19
Construction of condos and detached houses
p.20
Percentage of room type of newly built housings in Tokyo 23 wards
p.21
Construction of newly built housings by room type in Tokyo metropolitan area
p.22
Construction of rental apartments and net inflow of residents into Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan
p.23
Construction cost indices (Tokyo) p.24
-c. Rental housing fundamentals
Construction of rental housings in Tokyo metropolitan area
p.25
Rent of rental apartments by area and room type
p.26
Occupancy rate of rental apartments operated by J-REITs
p.27
Rent of rental apartments operated by J-REITs
p.28
Urban land price indices of commercial and residential in six major cities in Japan (YoY)
p.29
Public notice of land prices in residential area
p.30
Rent levels by property type p.31
3. Capital trend
-a. Acquisition of properties
Investors’ expected cap rate of rental apartment (standard studio)
p.32
Appraisal cap rates at the acquisition of rental apartments by J-REITs
p.33
Amount of asset acquired by J-REITs p.34
-b. Debt environment
Lending attitude of financial institutions (Diffusion index of “Accommodative” minus “Severe”)
p.35
New loans for fixed investment to real estate sector by domestic banks
p.36
JBA Japanese yen TIBOR p.37
10-year JGB interest rate p.38
-c. Equity environment
Yield spread p.39
Buying J-REITs by Bank of Japan p.40
4. Healthcare facility trend
Population pyramid p.41
Trend and projection in average life expectancy
p.42
One-person households which householder is over 65 years old
p.43
Elderly population in each prefecture p.44
Facilities and capacity in fee-based homes
p.45
Registration situation in serviced housing for the elderly
p.46
5. Hotel trend
International tourists arrivals p.47
Inbound visitors p.48
Growth rate of inbound visitors (YoY) p.49
Growth rate of inbound visitors and inbound guests (YoY)
p.50
Occupancy rate of hotels p.51
Charge of hotels p.52
Guests in domestic accommodations p.53
Facilities and rooms in hotels/ryokans p.54
3
1. Economy trend
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%) 民間最終消費支出 民間住宅 企業設備投資 公的需要 純輸出入 民間在庫品増加 実質GDP
Real GDP growth rate and annual contribution to change in GDP
Source :The Cabinet Office. Quarterly Estimates of GDP.
Change in
private inventories Net exportsPublic
demand
Private
non-resi.
investment
Private
residential
investment
Consumption
of households Real GDP
4
1. Economy trend
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)総合 生鮮食品を除く総合 食料(酒類を除く)及びエネルギーを除く総合
Revision of
consumption tax rate
CPI (YoY)
All
items
All items,
less fresh food
All items, less food
(less alcoholic beverages) and energy
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Consumer Price Index.
April 2014
5
1. Economy trend
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(times)(%) 完全失業率(左軸) 有効求人倍率(右軸)
Employment environment
Active job openings-to-applicants rate (RHS)Unemployment rate (LHS)
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Labour Force Survey. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Employment Referrals for General Workers.
6
1. Economy trend
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
賃金指数 実質賃金指数
Wage indices (YoY)
Wage index Real wage index
Source :Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Monthly Labour Survey.
Note :Wage Indices are indexed total cash earnings of establishments with 5 employees or more, total type of employment and total industries covered. Real wage indices is calculated by dividing the wage indices by CPI (all items. Less imputed rent).
7
1. Economy trend
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
民営家賃 消費者物価指数
CPI and private house rent (YoY)
Private house rent CPI
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. CPI Annual Change.
Note :CPI Annual Change means the Annual Change of the Total Index of all items, less food (less alcoholic beverages) and energy.
8
1. Economy trend
Wag
e (
Yo
Y)
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Coefficient of
correlation
0.89
CP
I (Y
oY
)
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Coefficient of
correlation
0.88
Correlation with private house rent
Correlation between private house rent and CPI Correlation between private house rent and wage
Private house rent (YoY) Private house rent (YoY)
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. CPI Annual Change. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Basic Survey on Wage Structure. Bank of Japan. Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments. Ministry of land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Statistics for the Construction of New Building.
Note :The above graphs are prepared based on the data from 1971 to 2018. However, the graph of correlation between wage annual change is prepared based on the available data from 1989 to 2018.
9
2. Asset trend
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Sapporo city Sendai city Tokyo 23 wards Nagoya city Osaka city Fukuoka city
2015 2016 2017 2018(person)
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Report on Population Movement based on the Basic Resident Register.
Note :The net inflow of residents is calculated by subtracting the total number of residents moving out of the relevant city from the total number of residents moving into the relevant city.
Net inflow of residents into Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan
10
2. Asset trend
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Fukuoka pref.
Fukuoka city
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Miyagi pref.
Sendai city
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Hokkaido pref.
Sapporo city
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Aichi pref.
Nagoya city
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Osaka pref.
Osaka city
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Tokyo pref.
Tokyo 23 wards
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Report on Population Movement based on the Basic Resident Register.
Note :Residential population growth rate is calculated based on comparison with the previous fiscal year ended March 31. Methods for calculating statistics have been revised in 2006. The foreigners subject to the basic resident registration law have been included in the statistics since 2013, but this analysis indicates the transition related to Japanese only.
Residents growth rate in Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan(YoY)
Tokyo 23 wards Osaka city Nagoya city
Sapporo city Sendai city Fukuoka city
11
2. Asset trend
Source : National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Population Projection for Japan (2017):
Note : Dependency Ratio is defined as the proportion of those aged under 15 and over 65 to all あthose between these ages. The results of projections according to the Medium-Fertility assumption with Middle-Mortality assumption.
Population by age group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065
Over 65 y/o 15-64 y/o 0-14 y/o Dependency ratio(in thousands)
ProjectionActual
12
2. Asset trend
ProjectionActual
Source : National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Household Projection for Japan(January 2018).
Note : The data for the periods from 2015 to 2040 are projections.
Types of households
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(in thousands)Single (actual) Single (projection: under 65 y/o(head of household)) Single (projection: 65 y/o and over (head of household))
Small Family Others Total households
13
2. Asset trend
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Housing and Land Survey. Management and Coordination Agency. Housing Survey.
Note 1 : The percentage of rental apartments is calculated by dividing the number of principal households in rental apartments (non-wooden) by the number of principal households in Japan.
Note 2 : If a household is occupying an entire dwelling, the household is defined as a “principal household.” If two or more households are living together in a dwelling, the main household (such as the owner or principal tenant) is defined as the “principal household.”
Principal households and households in rental apartments (non-wooden)
9%
12%
15%
16%
18%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Principal households Rental apartments (non-wooden) Rental apartments (RHS)
(Percentage of principal households)
(in ten thousands)
14
2. Asset trend
321658000
0.0%
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2013 Housing and Land Survey.
Note : Excluding vacant dwellings.
Housing stock in Japan
Total number of housing
:52,102,200 units
Rented:36.5%
Owned:63.5%
Private:28.8%
Others:7.8%
Apartments
(non-wooden)
:19.6%
Others:9.1%
Total number of
private rental apartments
(non-wooden)
: 9,945,800 units
Owned or Rented Ownership Type and Structure
15
2. Asset trend
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0~19㎡ 20~29㎡ 30~39㎡ 40~49㎡ 50~59㎡ 60~69㎡ 70~79㎡ 80~89㎡ 90~99㎡ 100~119㎡ 120~149㎡ 150㎡~
持家 民営借家(in thousands)
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2013 Housing and Land Survey.
Note :“Floor space” means the aggregate floor space of the property. “Household” is a group of people who share a home and finances, a single person, single people who share a home but not finances, or a single person who lives in a dormitory or
boarding house.
Households in owner-occupied housing and private rental housing by floor space
Households in
owner-occupied housing
Households in
private rental housing
16
2. Asset trend
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2013 Housing and Land Survey.
Note : Numbers of rental homes (non-Wooden) by floor space does not include vacant houses.
Households in rental apartments (non-wooden) by person and floor space
7,018,200
units 6,154,600
households
2,927,600
units 3,791,200
households
1 person
2 or more
persons
49m² or less
50m² or more
Households
by person
(9,945,800 households)
Rental apartments
by floor space
(9,945,800 units)
860 thousand households
of 2 or more persons
dwelling in rental
apartments of 49m2 or less.
55m2 is urban residential
standards for 2 persons,
which is suggested by MLIT.
17
2. Asset trend
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Housing and Land Survey.
Note : The age group of a household is determined by the age of the head of the relevant household.
House ownership rate by age group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
60歳以上
50~59歳
40~49歳
30~39歳
25~29歳
25歳未満
総数
60 y/o and over
50~59 y/o
40~49 y/o
30~39 y/o
25~29 y/o
under 25 y/o
Total
18
2. Asset trend
Source : Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Housing and Land Survey.
Note : The age group of a household is determined by the age of the head of the relevant household.
Percentage of age group in owner-occupied households
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
60歳以上
50~59歳
40~49歳
30~39歳
25~29歳
25歳未満
60 y/o and over
50~59 y/o
40~49 y/o
30~39 y/o
25~29 y/o
under 25 y/o
19
2. Asset trend
384
329320
190
207
246 249
232
273
223
189181 183 177
184 183 188
223
248
175163
105 100 100
117129 126
118130 131 127
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(in thousands)
Source : Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Statistics for the Construction of New Housing.
Note : The total number for each year includes reinforced concrete and steel reinforced concrete buildings.
Construction of rental apartments
20
2. Asset trend
618622
612
544572
644
711
671
784
613
541
586573
505
479493
506
488494
437432
374
414421
430
485
407404
423419
423
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
(in thousands)
162 172
233
185
111
130
218
202 192
205
170
180
213 211
201 196
199
226
236
167
178
76
89
115
122
127
109 113 113
112 109
0
50
100
150
200
250
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
(in thousands)
Source : Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Statistics for the Construction of New Housing.
Note : The total number of condominium for each year includes reinforced concrete and steel reinforced concrete buildings. The total number of detached house for each year includes wooden, concrete, steel, reinforced concrete and steel reinforced concrete buildings.
Construction of condos and detached houses
Condos Detached houses
21
2. Asset trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Analysis : TAS Corp.
Source : At Home Co, Ltd.
Percentage of room type of newly built housings in Tokyo 23 wards
2 or more rooms
1 room
Single room 1K 1DK 1LDK 2K 2DK 2LDK 3DK 3LDK
22
2. Asset trend
Analysis : TAS Corp.
Source : At Home Co, Ltd.
Note : Tokyo and Three Prefectures means Tokyo prefecture, Kanagawa prefecture, Saitama prefecture and Chiba prefecture.
Construction of newly built housings by room type in Tokyo metropolitan area
(units)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Single room 1K 1DK 1LDK 2K 2DK 2LDK 3DK 3LDK
23
2. Asset trend
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,0002008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source : Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Statistics for the Construction of New Housing. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Report on Population Movement based on the Basic Resident Register.
Note : The total number for each year includes concrete, steel, reinforced concrete and steel reinforced concrete buildings. The net inflow of residents is calculated by subtracting the total number of residents moving out of the relevant city from the total number of residents moving into the relevant city.
Construction of rental apartments and net inflow of residents into Tokyo 23 wards and major cities in Japan
Tokyo 23 wards Osaka city Nagoya city
Sapporo city Sendai city Fukuoka city
(units or
persons)
Construction of rental apartments Net inflow of residents
(units or
persons)(units or
persons)
(units or
persons)
(units or
persons)(units or
persons)
24
2. Asset trend
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
集合住宅(鉄骨鉄筋コンクリート) 集合住宅(鉄筋コンクリート) 集合住宅(鉄骨)
Source : Construction Research Institute. Construction Cost Index.
Note : Construction cost (net construction cost + field expenses(field management cost)) related to condominium by type of structure are indexed, 2011 as base year.
Construction cost indices (Tokyo)
Condominium (SRC) Condominium (RC) Condominium (S)
25
2. Asset trend
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source : Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Statistics for the Construction of New Housing.
Note : The total number of rental apartment (RC and SRC) for each year includes reinforced concrete and steel reinforced concrete buildings. The total number of rental apartment (wooden and steel) for each year includes wooden and steel buildings.
Construction of rental housings in Tokyo metropolitan area
Tokyo pref Kanagawa pref
Saitama pref Chiba pref
Rental apartments (RC and SRC) Rental apartments (wooden and steel)
(units)
(units)
(units)
(units)
26
2. Asset trend
75
100
125
2009.Q1 2010.Q1 2011.Q1 2012.Q1 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2015.Q1 2016.Q1 2017.Q1 2018.Q1
75
100
125
2009.Q1 2010.Q1 2011.Q1 2012.Q1 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2015.Q1 2016.Q1 2017.Q1 2018.Q1
75
100
125
2009.Q1 2010.Q1 2011.Q1 2012.Q1 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2015.Q1 2016.Q1 2017.Q1 2018.Q1
75
100
125
2009.Q1 2010.Q1 2011.Q1 2012.Q1 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2015.Q1 2016.Q1 2017.Q1 2018.Q1
Total Single type(18㎡~30㎡)
Compact type(30㎡~60㎡)
Family type(60㎡~100㎡)
Source : Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute Co., ltd. and At Home Co., Ltd.. Apartment Rent Index.
Rent of rental apartments by area and room type
Tokyo 23 wards Nagoya city
Osaka city Fukuoka city
27
2. Asset trend
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
都心3区 東京23区 名古屋 大阪 福岡
Source : ARES. J-REIT Property Database (Former AJPI Service)
Note : Period covered by index: up to Oct. 2018 ; final figures: to Apr. 2018 ; quasi-final figures: May 2018 ; preliminary estimate figures: Jun. 2018 - Oct. 2018.
Tokyo central 3 wards include Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku and Minato-ku.
Occupancy rate of rental apartments operated by J-REITs
Associate Decision Level
and Preliminary Figure
Tokyo Central 3 wards Tokyo 23 wards Nagoya Osaka Fukuoka
28
2. Asset trend
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
都心3区 東京23区 名古屋 大阪 福岡
(¥/Tsubo)
Source : ARES. J-REIT Property Database (Former AJPI Service)
Note : Period covered by index: up to Oct. 2018 ; final figures: to Apr. 2018 ; quasi-final figures: May 2018 ; preliminary estimate figures: Jun. 2018 - Oct. 2018.
Tokyo central 3 wards include Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku and Minato-ku.
Rent of rental apartments operated by J-REITs
Associate Decision Level
and Preliminary Figure
Tokyo Central 3 wards Tokyo 23 wards Nagoya Osaka Fukuoka
29
2. Asset trend
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Mar-2008 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016 Mar-2017 Mar-2018
Commercial Residential
Source : Japan Real Estate Institute. Urban Land Price Index and Wooden Frame House Market Value Index.
Note : The average index of six large city areas: Tokyo 23 wards, Yokohama city, Nagoya city, Kyoto city, Osaka city and Kobe city are indicated.
Urban land price indices of commercial and residential in six major cities in Japan (YoY)
(%)
30
2. Asset trend
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tokyo area Osaka area Nagoya area Average of three areas
Source : Land Price Research Division, Land Economy and Construction and Engineering Industry Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Yearly volatility of public notice of land prices.
Public notice of land prices in residential area
(%)
31
2. Asset trend
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Residential Office Retail Hotel
Source : Bank of Japan. Corporate Service Price Index. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Consumer Price Index.
Note : The residential rent figures are from the Consumer Price Index; the office, retail and hotel rent figures are from the Corporate Service Price Index. The rent levels for 1990 are given a value of 100 for comparison purposes.
Rent levels by property type
32
3. Capital trend
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
東京(城南地区) 大阪 名古屋 福岡 札幌
Investors’ expected cap rate of rental apartment (standard studio)
Tokyo (Jonan area) Osaka city Nagoya city Fukuoka city Sapporo city
Source : Japan Real Estate Institute. The Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey.
33
3. Capital trend
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Jan-2003 Jan-2005 Jan-2007 Jan-2009 Jan-2011 Jan-2013 Jan-2015 Jan-2017 Jan-2019
Appraisal cap rates at the acquisition of rental apartments by J-REITs
Source : Prepared by Kenedix Real Estate Fund Management, Inc. based on Publication Documents of J-REITs.
Note : The pink line indicates an approximate curve of degree 5. Appraisal cap rates are yields utilized in appraisals at acquisitions.
34
3. Capital trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
(in billions of yen) Residential Others
Amount of asset acquired by J-REITs
Source : Prepared by Kenedix Real Estate Fund Management, Inc. based on ARES. J-REIT Databook.
35
3. Capital trend
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
不動産業(大企業) 不動産業(中堅企業) 不動産業(中小企業) 不動産業(全規模合計)
Lending attitude of financial institutions (Diffusion index of “Accommodative” minus “Severe”)
Real estate industry(large companies)
Real estate industry(midsize companies)
Real estate industry(small-midsize companies)
Real estate industry(all company)
Source : Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. List of TANKAN (Figures by Industry).
36
3. Capital trend
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(in billions of yen)
New loans for fixed investment to real estate sector by domestic banks
Source : Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. New Loans for Fixed Investment by Sector.
Note: : The new loans for fixed investment for real estate sector by domestic banks (total amount of banking accounts, trust banking accounts and overseas office accounts) is described.
37
3. Capital trend
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%全銀協日本円TIBOR(1MONTH) 全銀協日本円TIBOR(3MONTH)
JBA Japanese yen TIBOR
JBA Japanese yen TIBOR (1 month) JBA Japanese yen TIBOR (3 month)
Source : bloomberg
38
3. Capital trend
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
10年国債利回り
10-year JGB interest rate
10-year JGB interest rate
Source : bloomberg
39
3. Capital trend
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 Jan-2019
東証REIT指数配当利回り 10年国債利回り イールドギャップ
Yield spread
TSE REIT Dividend Yield JGB 10 Yield Yield Gap
Source : bloomberg
40
3. Capital trend
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Dec-
2010
Mar-
2011
Jun
-2011
Sep
-2011
Dec-
2011
Mar-
2012
Jun
-2012
Sep
-2012
Dec-
2012
Mar-
2013
Jun
-2013
Sep
-2013
Dec-
2013
Mar-
2014
Jun
-2014
Sep
-2014
Dec-
2014
Mar-
2015
Jun
-2015
Sep
-2015
Dec-
2015
Mar-
2016
Jun
-2016
Sep
-2016
Dec-
2016
Mar-
2017
Jun
-2017
Sep
-2017
Dec-
2017
Mar-
2018
Jun
-2018
Sep
-2018
Dec-
2018
買入額累計 買入枠(in hundred millions of yen)
Buying J-REITs by Bank of Japan
Total Buying budget
The Bank will purchase
J-REITs at annual pace of
about 90 billion yen.
October 31, 2014
Monetary Policy Meeting
Source : Financial Markets Department, Bank of Japan. Purchases of ETFs and J-REITs.
41
4. Healthcare facility trend
02,0004,000 02,0004,000
Population pyramid
0 2,000 4,000 0 2,000 4,000
2015 (Actual) 2045 (Estimate)
100 y/o over
95-99 y/o
90-94 y/o
85-89 y/o
80-84 y/o
75-79 y/o
70-74 y/o
65-69 y/o
60-64 y/o
55-59 y/o
50-54 y/o
45-49 y/o
40-44 y/o
35-39 y/o
30-34 y/o
25-29 y/o
20-24 y/o
14-19 y/o
10-14 y/o
5-9 y/o
0-4 y/o
100 y/o over
95-99 y/o
90-94 y/o
85-89 y/o
80-84 y/o
75-79 y/o
70-74 y/o
65-69 y/o
60-64 y/o
55-59 y/o
50-54 y/o
45-49 y/o
40-44 y/o
35-39 y/o
30-34 y/o
25-29 y/o
20-24 y/o
14-19 y/o
10-14 y/o
5-9 y/o
0-4 y/o
Male Female
Source : National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Population Projection for Japan (2017).
42
4. Healthcare facility trend
58.00
65.32
69.31
73.35
75.92
77.72
79.55 80.75 81.34
82.39 83.27
84.02 84.66 84.95
61.50
70.19
74.66
78.76
81.90
84.60
86.30 86.99
87.64 88.72
89.63 90.40
91.06 91.35
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2065
男 女
ProjectionActual
Source : Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Abridged life table (for 1950). Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Complete life table (for 1960 - 2015). The median projections of National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Population Projection for Japan (2017) (for after 2020)
Note :The figures before 1970 exclude the figure of Okinawa Prefecture. The average rest of life in 0 years old is average life expectancy.
Trend and projection in average life expectancy
(year) Male Female
43
4. Healthcare facility trend
Source : National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Household Projection for Japan: 2010-2035 (January 2018)
Note :The data for the periods from 2015 to 2040 are projections.
One-person households which householder is over 65 years old
6,253
7,025
7,512
7,959
8,418
8,963
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(in thousands)
44
4. Healthcare facility trend
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
東京
都
神奈
川県
大阪
府
埼玉
県
愛知
県
千葉
県
兵庫
県
北海
道
福岡
県
静岡
県
茨城
県
広島
県
京都
府
宮城
県
新潟
県
長野
県
群馬
県
岐阜
県
岡山
県
栃木
県
福島
県
三重
県
熊本
県
鹿児
島県
沖縄
県
滋賀
県
愛媛
県
山口
県
奈良
県
長崎
県
青森
県
岩手
県
大分
県
石川
県
山形
県
宮崎
県
富山
県
秋田
県
香川
県
和歌
山県
山梨
県
佐賀
県
福井
県
徳島
県
高知
県
島根
県
鳥取
県
高齢者人口(2015年) 高齢者人口(2045年) 増加率
Elderly population in each prefecture
(in thousands)
Source : National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Population Projection for Japan by region (March 2013)
Note :Elderly people indicate 65 years old and over.
Elderly population (2015) Elderly population (2045) Growth rate
To
kyo
Kan
ag
aw
a
Osa
ka
Saita
ma
Aich
i
Ch
iba
Hyo
go
Ho
kkaid
o
Fu
ku
oka
Sh
izuo
ka
Ibara
ki
Hiro
shim
a
Kyo
to
Miy
ag
i
Niig
ata
Nag
an
o
Gu
nm
a
Gifu
Okayam
a
To
chig
i
Fu
ku
shim
a
Mie
Ku
mam
oto
Kag
osh
ima
Okin
aw
a
Sh
iga
Eh
ime
Yam
ag
uch
i
Nara
Nag
asa
ki
Ao
mo
ri
Iwate
Oita
Ishik
aw
a
Yam
ag
ata
Miy
aza
ki
To
yam
a
Akita
Kag
aw
a
Wakayam
a
Yam
an
ash
i
Sag
a
Fu
ku
i
To
ku
shim
a
Ko
chi
Sh
iman
e
To
ttori
45
4. Healthcare facility trend
4,144 4,640
7,519
8,502
9,632
10,651
12,570
13,525
196 216
315
351
391
425
483
519
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
施設数 定員(右軸)
Facilities and capacity in fee-based homes
(facilities) (in thousands)
Source : Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Survey of Social Welfare Institutions
Note : Serviced housings for the elderly aren’t included in fee-based homes.
Facilities Capacity (RHS)
46
4. Healthcare facility trend
112
2,772
4,205
5,160
5,885
6,463
6,877 7,089
3
89
135
166
192
211
225 234
0
100
200
0
5,000
10,000
Dec-2011 Dec-2012 Dec-2013 Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Aug-2018
棟数 戸数(右軸)
Source : Senior Housing Promotion Organization. System of providing information about serviced housing for the elderly
Registration situation in serviced housing for the elderly
(in thousands)Facilities Units (RHS)(facilities)
47
5. Hotel trend
出所 :UNWTO「Tourism Highlights, 2017 Edition」
International tourist arrivals
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
中東 アフリカ 米州 アジア・太平洋 ヨーロッパAsia and Oceania
ProjectionActual
(in millions) Middle East Africa Americas Europa
48
5. Hotel trend
5,212 6,138
6,728 7,334
8,347 8,351
6,790
8,611
6,219
8,358
10,364
13,413
19,737
24,040
28,691
31,192
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Inbound visitors
(in thousands)
Source :Japan National Tourism Organization(JNTO). Visitor Arrivals.
Note :The figure of December 2018 is a preliminary figure.
49
5. Hotel trend
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
訪日外国人数(右軸) 増加率(アジア・オセアニア) 増加率(ヨーロッパ) 増加率(北米) 増加率(総数)
Growth rate of inbound visitors (YoY)
(in thousands)
Inbound visitors(RHS)Growth rate of
Asia and Oceania
Growth rete of
Europa
Growth rate of
North America Total growth rate
Source :Japan National Tourism Organization(JNTO). Visitor Arrivals.
Note :The figures after November 2018 is preliminary figures.
50
5. Hotel trend
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
訪日外国人数 外国人延べ宿泊者数
Growth rate of inbound visitors and inbound guests (YoY)
Source :Japan National Tourism Organization(JNTO). Visitor Arrivals. Japan Tourism Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Accommodation Travel Statistics Survey.
Note :The figures of growth rate of inbound visitors after November 2018 and the Growth rate of inbound guests after November are preliminary figures.
Growth rate of inbound visitors Growth rate of inbound guests
51
5. Hotel trend
0
20
40
60
80
100
リゾートホテル ビジネスホテル シティホテル
Occupancy rate of hotels
(%) Business hotelResort hotel City hotel
Source :Japan Tourism Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Accommodation Travel Statistics Survey.
Note :”Business hotel” mainly refers to the facilities targeting business travelers, “Resort hotel” mainly refers to the facilities located in resort areas or recreation areas targeting travelers and “City hotel” refers to the facilities located in urban areas
other than those mentioned above. The figures after January 2018 is preliminary figures.
52
5. Hotel trend
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Jan
-14
Mar-
14
May-1
4
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar-
15
May-1
5
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar-
16
May-1
6
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar-
18
May-1
8
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
平日 休前日
Charge of hotels
(yen)
Source :Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Retail Price Survey.
Note :The charge of overnight, with breakfast and western-style room is stated.
Business day The day before holiday
53
5. Hotel trend
Guests in domestic accommodations
28 18 26 33 45 66 69 78
386 399 413
432 429
438 423 420
6.7%
4.4%
6.0%
7.2%
9.5%
13.0%
14.1%
15.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
延べ日本人宿泊者数 延べ外国人宿泊者数 外国人宿泊者比率(右軸)(in millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source :Japan Tourism Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Accommodation Travel Statistics Survey.
Note :The figures after January 2017 is preliminary figures.
Number of Japanese guests Number of inbound guests % of inbound guests (RHS)
54
5. Hotel trend
56,616 56,059 54,540
53,172 51,778 50,628 49,590 49,024
1,568 1,576 1,556 1,562 1,545 1,548 1,562 1,596
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ホテル・旅館施設数 ホテル・旅館客室数(右軸)
Facilities and rooms in hotels/ryokans
(facilities) (rooms)
Source :Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Public health Administration Report.
Number of facilities Number of rooms (RHS)
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