March 4 th – 5 th, 2015 Tetsunari IIDA Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Japan’s Energy...

March 4th – 5th, 2015

Tetsunari IIDA

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Japan’s Energy Transition at the crossroad

4 years after 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Lunch Debate: Fukushima four years laterMarch 4th-5th 2015, in the European Parliaments

4 yeas after

3.11 Fukushima

2

Over 120,000 refugees left behind

3Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT(Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137) 3

4

“Under control”“Completely blocked”by Shinzo ABE

4

5

The reality

5

6

Contamination plume

Impermeable layer ?

Ground

water

Ground water level

Reactor Bldg.

Turbine Bldg.

Contaminatedwater tank

Leakage

Sampling well

Cooling w

ater

Sampling well

Sea level

6

The reality

Ice wall

The reality

815 – 30 million m3

9( 画像 ) WSJ

The reality

• Small improvements

• Big mess

• Spreading chaos

9

Spreading chaos

1. “ABE backlash” and “Shock doctrine”

2. All nuclear policy under METI’s governance

3. Corrupted policy design under METI

4. “40 years TEPCO’s roadmap” w/o any proof

5. Complicating “waste issue”

6. “Odd situation” over radiation

7. Difficulty in refugees’ future

8. Media control10

300 32 1151219

119 21 3081418

2005

2009

294 31 5712182012 54

….but, Abe Administration has come,

11291 35 7325102014 41

“ABE-backlash” as “Shock doctrine”

• 2012.12 Strong will to resume nuclear

• 2013.1 ~ Top sales for nuclear export

• 2014.4 New Energy Policy with Nuclear

• 2014.6 Replace NRA committee member

• 2014.7 The first nuke (Sendai) passed NRA

• 2014.12 Local governments’ agreement

• 2015 summer The first nuke restart after 3.11 ?12

“ABE’s jigsaw puzzle”, trick for nuclear revival

13

1. Cleverly devised effort for nuclear restart

2. Changing public perception

3.Manipulating electricity tariff

4. Nuclear FIT (CfD)

5. Relaxing nuclear liability

6. Positive attitude for HLW issue

7. Still stick to “nuclear fuel cycle” myth

Public opinion for nuclear

1414

Cost of nuclear

1515Nuke Coal GasWindon off Geo Hydro

Yen/kWhNuclear cost revisedat compensation of

50 billion USD

Now 110 B$(9.5 yen/kWh)

must be more

Paradigm change about nuclear

1616

Before 3.11 After 3.11

Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly

Cheaper electricityGood for economySupply securityOil alternativeFor national securitySafety mythNeed for monopoly

More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market

More expensive & riskRisk for economySupply riskNeed for stand-by oilRisk for national securityReality of riskNeed for open market

New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui

17

New trend in Justice : the case against TEPCO

18

All the nuclear has shut down

0on Sept.15 19

Energy saving – the largest alternative to nuclear

20

・ Endurance

・ Commanding

・ Lack of supply

・ More power

・ Bad for economy

・ Efficiency

・ Nega-watt

・ Peak management

・ DSM

・ Good for business

Some “evolution” in energy policy

2121

Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts,

（G

W）

22

Rinsing renewables power - the 4th revolution

Sun rising again, and where

23

FIT (house)

FIT (all)

FIT (2005~)

FIT (2000~)

Increasing EL tariff, decreasing PV cost in Japan

(source)Japan Renewable Foundation 24

Sun rising again1st Oct. 2014

FIT Suspended

25th Jan. 2015

Regional CAP25

Rising community power in Japan

Niceko

Aizu Soma

Yamagata

Setagaya

Chofu

SaitamaIIDA city

Toyama

Odawara

Bizen

Shizuoka Nagano

Takarazuka

Obama

Kyotango

Takayama

Yamaguchi

Kumamoto

Minami-SomaHiroshima

Obihiro

Akita

Shiragami

IwateNiigata

26

Rising community power : Fukushima

27

28

Old regime New paradigm

Centralized Small distributed

Monopoly Community ownership

Hierarchy Network

Fossil & nuclearRenewable &

Energy efficiency

(Numerical) Economic growth

Sufficiency, justice, welfare 29

At the crossroad

29