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Natural Resources Conservation Service
Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report March 1, 2014
I daho S N O T E L Cur-ren t Snow W a t e.r Equiv-a le.nt (SW E) % of N ormal
H a r 01 # 2014 Currem. SAOW' Watef' EQuivateol ($WE) e-.in.wkk Pero,e,.nc of 1N1 -2
February SNOTEL Precipitation as % of AverageW e stwi d e S N O T E L Cur r e n t M o n t h to D ate P recip i tait i o n ° ,1:, o f N o r mal
Ma r 0 1, 2014 _ C u n-ient M onth • -to o.11e PJ'@CCI tt.111on B~no-..,d• P 6> ~ t of -ree-a-2010 AY'Ol"':ag o
O u n s V31b"t);le "'
. =150"" oec:.r:.n~o"t-.;r ~c, J>«.fOi1 or~-.~,t ,;n,rnpo,:-~ o!~.._ .,,,.)91
USDA
~ NRCS
I IL_
I I
Prcp:in:,d by the- U S[).fd,,IRCS H .:i:6cr..:.i' ~ ~ C Oir.:w:ie C:rter Porl:bnd. ~90"' M:p:!~ .--- ~ .~4~:n,~~ Ebr;od on d.::ib ~ h~ • ....:c.r~ .. ....s.e~ ;i0,Wrc~ SdcarcC> CCM'IOICr j lffl.M:;aT0!'1t!F-Ct~Jll,GO' ~ -' '14 lOL7
Idaho SNOTEL Precipitation March 1-14 compared to normal March Total are:
• 130% in Weiser• 90-120% north, central,
Upper Snake, Oakley,• 60-75% Little Lost,
Salmon Falls, Bruneau, Bear
• 81% Owyhee
Total Precipitation Anomaly: 01 March 2014 - 11 March 2014
% of Average Precipitation
• o O so-10 . ,so. 110 - 1 - 10 LJ 70-90 - 170-200
- 11-20 LJ 90-110 -200-300
• 20 - 30 D 110- 130 • 300. , 00 - 30 -50 D 130- 1S0 - > 400
Period endi ng 7 Al\1 EST tl Mn r 201'1 Bns e pe ri od : 1981-2010
(Mop c r ented 12 Mnr 2014)
t
Daily Mean ,I em.perature Ano11u1 ly: tll Mar ch 2€114 - 11 Ma:rc·h 2014
Tern perature Anomaly rFJ
• ,:. ·e D s i - 5 1 - 16 3Di 1-1 a • 1:,, o D 1 1 • 10 1i - 10 7 L_j 1 J - 13 16
1111 :,, 1~
P [' dm~ [' II clli II M" '1 A.M ~:s~~ H /Iii 111" :!014 Dase per.~od: l98 Jl-20.ll0
(I\1a.p C l' eat e d 1 .... Mar 20U.)
W estvvi de SNOTEL Curren t Snow W ater Equivalent (SW E) O/o of Normal
M ar- 1 3 , Current Snow Water E qulvale n t (SWE) BasJn._wide Perc e n t o f 1981-201 0 Median
0 u navailabl e • . < 50%
0 50-69%
0 70-89%
D oo- 109%
0 110 - 1 29%
. 1 30- 1 49% •>= 1 50% ~ Dara un.ava.l'la!ll e
a r a.me or pc.stNl,g or m ea;S;Vre.rnenr t.s 11or represen..ta.:?rve a r -!!tfs r.me or year
ProvisionaI data s u b j ect to r evision
USDA -'9, NRCS ----====--------Mlle& 0 75 , ~o 300
Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts as of March 1, 2014 Percent of 1981-2010 A verage
• > 180 • 150 - 180 • 130 - 149 0 110 - 129
• 90 - 109 0 70 • 89
0 50 - 69
• 25 - 49 •
February SWE Increase:
Clearwater Basin - 2nd greatest February increase since 1981; only February 1999 had a bigger increase.
Boise Basin - 4th greatest February increase since 1961; only years 1986, 1999, and 1972 received more.
Snake abv Jackson Lake, Hoback, Greys, Salt, Gros Ventre – 2nd greatest since 1961 only 1986 had more.
Lewis Lake Divide – 5th highest February increase since records start in 1919
As of March 13, 34.3”
70 February 1 & March 1 Snow Water Content compared to Average Monthly Values
65 Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL Site, Yellowstone NP, Wyoming· Years 1919-2014*
60
-II) 55 (I) ~ u 50 C
• March 1, 2014 SWE was 28.2" 1 Apr 1 Snow Water Content I- • Only 1.3" less than April 1 median 1 Mar 1 Snow Water Content • February SWE accumulation was I-1 Feb 1 Snow Water Content the 5th highest since record starts 1919
·--..., 45 C (I)
c 40 "
April 1 Median = 29.5 I '
0 0 35 Mar 1 Median = 25.1 -~ I,. (I) ...,
30 m ~
11 I I • . • I I I . I I I I
I I • I I I I I I I - • - I I I I I I I
~ 25 0 C 20 Cl)
Feb 1 Median= 20.2 15
10
5
0 •
*Early years are estimated from mid-month measurements including 1919-1937 for February 1 and 1919-1929 for April 1.
Idaho SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) O/o of Normal
USDA
'°" NRCS
Northern Panhandle
Region
mD
The snonw ate-r eqLivalent percent of nonnal rep-esen-.s die current S l"IOH water equivalent k>und at selected SNOTEL sites in or near lhe basin oornpared to ::he a'\l'e!lage value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reacing of the day (typically 00:00).
Mar 13, 2014 Current Snow Wate r Equivale nt (SWE} Basin-wide Perce nt o f 1981-2 010 Median
c::::::::J unavailable• -
Idaho SNOTEL W ater Year ( Oct 1 ) to Date Prec ipitati on O/o of Normal
N orthern Panhandl e
Region
w Owyh ee
USDA
'°' NRCS ihe water year to d a:e ~tat.ion percent of normal represents lhe aocumula:ed precipiblion found m selected SNOTEL SC'.es in or near the basin compared to the average v a lue for those sites on this day. Data. based on 1he &st reading of the day {typically 00:00).
Mar 13, 2014 Water Year (O ct 1 ) to Dat e Precip itatio n Basin-wide Percent o f 1981 -2 0 10 A v er age
~ un availabl e •
- < 50%
~ 50 - 69%
~ 70 - 89%
~ 90 - 109%
~ 110 - 12 9%
- 130 - 14 9%
- > = 150% oa.-a, a.nava.ua.Oole a c r.m e ot p ~ Cf' m-eas.urem ent .ts n ot repre sentattw: a.t t'lllS r.'me otyear
P rov is i onal Data S u bjf:K:t to Rev i sio n
-=-==-===---ic::==--• M iles 0 10 20 40 60 eo 100
Bear River
nake
Prepared by the- USOA/1'11RCS National Water and C l.....-..afe Center-Port.Jand. Oregon hnp:/Jwww.wcc..nrcs.usda.gov}ig•isJ Based on data from hUp::JJwww. wcc:.nrcs..usda..govJ'reportS/ Scie nce- oc.w,_::a,ct: Jim _Mam:in@.Por.usda.gov 503 4 14 3047
USDA ~
NRCS Idaho Streamflow Forecasts March 1 2014
United Stat-. Department ot Agriculture
Pervent of Average - < 25 - 25 - 49 50 - 69 70 - 89 - 90 - 109 110 - 129 - 130-149 - 150 - 180 - > 180
0 20 40 80 120 --
Values shown are based on the 50°/o chance of exceedance forecasts. Forecast period varies for some basins. Please refer to the Water S u ppl y Outlook Report for more details regarding these forecasts. http ://www. n res. usda. gov/ wps/ portal/n rcs/ mai n / id/ snow/
160 Miles
N
A
IDAHO SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX (SWSI) March 1, 2014Agricultural Water
Most Recent Year Supply Shortage May
SWSI With Similar SWSI Occur When SWSI is
BASIN or REGION Value Value Less Than
Northern Panhandle -0.4 2000/2007 NA Spokane -0.1 2006 NA
Clearwater 2.1 2009/2012 NA Salmon 0.1 2010 NA Weiser -2.1 2004/2013 NA Payette -1.8 2002/2005 NA
Boise -1.1 2002/2003 -1.5 Big Wood -1.8 2002/2003 0.0
Little Wood -2.8 2002/2013 -1.7 Big Lost -1.6 2000/2007 0.5
Little Lost -1.3 2000/2008 1.2 Teton 0.9 2006/2009 -3.9
Henrys Fork -0.1 2000/2012 -3.4 Snake (Heise) 1.1 2006/2012 -1.5
Oakley -2.3 2002/2004 -0.2 Salmon Falls -3.3 2003 -1.0
Bruneau -2.6 2007/2013 NA Owyhee -3.8 1992/2003 -3.4
Bear River 0.4 2001/2013 -2.7
SWSI SCAL~ PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE, AND INTERPRETATION
- 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 1------ 1------ 1------ J------1------ 1------1------ 1------ 1
99%
I Much I Below
87%
I Be l ow I Normal
75% 6 3% 50%
Near Nor mal Water Su ppl y
37% 25%
Abov e Normal
13%
Mu c h Above
1%
SNOTEL Site SQUAW FLAT – Weiser - Payette Divide8” of precipitation since March 1
Station (782) WATERYEAR=2014 (DaiJy) NRCS National Wat,er and Climate Center- ProvisionaJ Data - subject to r,evision Thu Mar .13 13:58:23 PDT 2014
45.0 42 .5
40.0
37.5
35.0
32.5
30.0
27.5 IJ'1 QJ
25.0 ..c 22.5 u .£
20.0 17.5
15.0 12.5
10.0
7.5 5.0
2.5 0.0
r-1 .--I .--I .--I .--I r-1 r-1 a a a a 0 0 a B ~
I I I L u C ..c QJ ro QJ ro 0 z 0 ~ Ll. 2
L
~
.--I r-1 r-1 0 0 0
~ I I
C ::::, ::::, ~ ~
~
.--I a
I
C'I
c1
.--I a
I
c.. QJ IJl
.--I a B 0
PREC 81-10 Average (in} - PREC WY 2014 (in)
- SWE 81-10 Median (in )
- SWE WY 2014 (in)
s
Payette Basin 2014 Precipitation Comparison Graph (11 sites) Bused ur, Pruvisiunu! SNOTEL clutu us uf Mur 11, 2014
- - Average --WY2002 --WY2008 --WY2013 -WY2014
0 ~ii.ii,~:..._-----!~~..!.-~ ---l-~ ---!...~~).._~ -l-~ ---!-~ --l~~...!-~ ---l-~----l l·Oct l·Nov l·Dec l ·Jan l·Feb 1-Mar l·Apr l·May 1-Jun l·Jul l·Aug 1-Sep
Camas Creek near Blaine, on average, peaks1 day before Soldier R.S. swe reaches half melt,
6.8” peak SWE3.4” half melt
Station (769) WATERYEAR=2014 (Daily) NRCS National Water and Climate Center - Provisional Data - subject to revision Thu Mar.13 13:21:54 PDT2014
V'I QJ
..c u
,!;
22.5
2 0.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
1 0.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
.-i 0
-8 0
Har 07
2014
.-I 0
~ z
Har 08
2014
.-i .-i .-i .-I 0 0 0 0 u C: .n .:_ QJ .!!!., QJ ro 0 LL :a
USGS :1.3:1.4:1.500 CANAS CREEK HR BLRI.NE ID
Har 09
20:1.4
Har 10
20:1.4
Har 11
2014
Har 12
20:1.4
.-I 0 .:_
~
Har 13
2014
---- Provi.si.o na1 Da ta S ubje ct to Re vis i o n----
6 Hedi.an dai._l_,y stati.sti.c ( 43 ~ears ) ::!IE Heas ured discharge - Discharg e
.-I 0
~ :a
Har 14
20:1.4
600
550
500
450
Cl) 400 u.. u 350 ~
300 co 0 C 250 co Cl)
2 200
150
100
50
PREC 81-10 Average (in)
- PREC WY 2014 ( in)
- SWE 81-10 Median (in) - SWE WY 2014 (in)
' ' ' l
... I :\ ; ! '·' / r~
! !J ! I
10-25-75-90
= Estimated
-+---+--\---+-1 - SimilarYr
--+--4--+-1 --Last Yr >-t---1,-t-l - Projected
--current
'r--1----+'rl ------- Median
(D C") 0 .... c: """" C'\I N :, C: C: C: -, ::::, ::::, :::, -, -, -,
--Max-Min
Updated
13-Mar-14
Similar Year
1990
CL Q,.I
~ ....0 CL _1\.1
0.. Q,.I
~ ....c 0.. Q..I
Snow Indexes with March 14 SWE Data compared to April 1 Indexes:
Hoback 12th highest compared to April 1 index that starts in 1961Greys 14th highest compared to April 1 index that starts in 1961Gros Venture 16th highest compared to April 1 index that starts in 1961
Snake Basin above Jackson Lake 2014 Snow Water with Non-Exceedence Projections (5 sites)
Based on Provisional SNOTEL data as of Mar 11, 2014
-Normal - WY2014 - Minimum - 10% 30% - 5006 70% - 90% - Maximum Snake Basin above Palisades 2014 Snow Water with Non-Exceedence Projections (18 45
40
iii QI 35 .r: u C: :.
30 ... C: QI "'iii
25 .2 ::, er w
20 .. QI
1v $ 15 g C: 10 V>
0 ..)mll!!!::=_illliilllli!..... _______________ ~ --i .;ai,IL\...-l---i--~ ~
1-0ct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep
Based on Provisional SNOTEL data as of Mar 11, 2014
-Normal - WY2014 - Minimum - 10% 30%- 50% 70% 90%- Maximum
40
35 -IJI j30 u C
.:::.25 .. C GI
]20 ·s ~15 .. GI .. ~10
~ 5 C Ill
0 1-0ct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Febl-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep
8000 -'tJ .f 7000
' ~ 6000 ~ 0 . o 5000 0
'"" ; ,400) -a. a. 3000 :::J . v.,
ii 200) ... ~ 1000
0
Mar 1 Hist,ori1c, ,an·d Fore,casted Surf,a1ce W,aterSupply
Snake River Ne,a r Heise -
------- I- --_..__ - I- - I- .... -
11 ------ - .... - - -- -- ---~ - - I- I- I- - I- - - - - I- I- --- -- - - .... .... .... - - - - .... .... - - - - .... .... - - - -
I
- - - .... ..... ..... - - - - ..... ..... - - - - ..... ..... - - - -I
11 : I I: I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Ye,ars
-
-- -- ------- I- I- I-
- -.... .... .... - - - .... .... ....
..... ..... ..... - - - ..... ..... .....
: ..... ..... .....
I I I I I I I I I I I
'" -
-
-
-
I
DStream F!ow Apr-Sep
• Reservoir 28-Feh
, ,. i i i ,.
7 J ;_; " ~-,-~ ~ ~
i i ~ ~ I _ "" _ I; ._ ~ ~ - ~ i; ~ i 1 1 ~ ~ i i i
- _ i; .... ~ .... i - i _i I; ~ i i i ~ ~ i i i ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ - II' II' -, -I; ~ i i i ~ ~ i i i i; _ i i i ..... ,-1-,
I I I I I I
I I I I I
I
Adeqllate Irrigation
Supply Above 4,400 KAF
Snake River Near Heise SWSI
# of
Station ID Station Nan1e Period Data Type Years Years
13037500 Snake River near Heise Apr-Se p strm 1981-2013 33 Units KAF 13010500 Jackson Lake 28-Feb resv 1981-2013 33 Units KAF 13032450 Palisades Reservoir 28-Feb resv 1981-2013 33 Units KAF
ENSO Classification SE Strong El Nino - EN Mild El Nino - N Neutral - lN Mild La Nina - SL Strong la Nina
Streamflov, + Non-Strean1 Flow Reservoir Reservoir Exc:eedance
Rank Year Enso Apr-Se p 28-Feb Sum Probability SWSI
Ill ~ [ZOO~ ~ ~ am M ~ ~ ~ 634 i!ill1 tlill g.W,/ [JI
i!m 558 86 ~ §ffl ~ ~ w IZID! m ~
5 1982 N 5772 1405 7177 85% 2.9
6 1983 SE 5008 1772 6780 82% 2.7 7 1984 N 5046 1687 6733 79% 2.5 8 1999 SL 4947 1662 6609 76% 2.2 9 1998 SE 4495 1853 6348 74% 2.0
10 2009 N 4610 1649 6259 71% 2014 10% Chance Exceedance Forcast N 5190 760 5950 70%
482 60 58 69% 11 SE 4442 918 5360 68% 1.5
12 2006 N 4076 1267 5343 65% 1.2 2014 50% Chance Exceedance Forcast N 4570 760 5330 63% 1.1
13 2012 LN 1863 62% 1.0 14
15 2000 N 3057 1900 4957 56% 0.5
16 2010 EN 3106 1803 4909 53% 0.2 17 1985 N 3490 1363 4853 50% 0.0
18 1981 N 2912 1876 4788 47% -0.2 19 1993 EN 4113 663 4776 44% -0.5
2014 90Yo Chance Exceedance Forcast N 3950 760 4710 43% -0.6 20 1989 SL 3866 761 4627 41% -0.7
21 1990 N 2806 1681 4487 38% -1.0
22 1991 N 3354 1054 4408 35% -1.2
n 1Q
8000 -'tJ .f 7000
' ~ 6000 ~ 0 . o 5000 0
'"" ; ,400) -a. a. 3000 :::J . v.,
ii 200) ... ~ 1000
0
Mar 1 Hist,ori1c, ,an·d Fore,casted Surf,a1ce W,aterSupply
Snake River Ne,a r Heise -
------ I--
_..__ - I- - I- .... -11 -
----- - .... - - -- -- ---~ - - I- I- I- - I- - - - - I- I- --- -- - - .... .... .... - - - - .... .... - - - - .... .... - - - -
I
- - - .... ..... ..... - - - - ..... ..... - - - - ..... ..... - - - -I
11 : I I: I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Ye,ars
-
-- -- ------- I- I- I-
- -.... .... .... - - - .... .... ....
..... ..... ..... - - - ..... ..... .....
: ..... ..... .....
I I I I I I I I I I I
'" -
-
-
-
I
DStream F!ow Apr-Sep
• Reservoir 28-Feh
, ,. i i i ,.
7 J ;_; " ~-,-~ ~ ~
i i ~ ~ I _ "" _ I; ._ ~ ~ - ~ i; ~ i 1 1 ~ ~ i i i
- _ i; .... ~ .... i - i _i I; ~ i i i ~ ~ i i i ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ - II' II' -, -I; ~ i i i ~ ~ i i i i; _ i i i ..... ,-1-,
I I I I I I
I I I I I
I
Adeqllate Irrigation
Supply Above 4,400 KAF
200% ~-----------------------------Forecasted Percent of Adequate Water Supply
180% Drier I 90% chance of exceedance
160% J_ I 70% chance of exceedance
140% t- I 50% chance of exceedance I 30% chance of exceedance
120% -I
110% chance of exceedance Wetter
100% Adequate Water Supply
80% --l---------1
60%
20%
0%
Owyhee Salmon Falls Big Wood Big Lost Little Lost Oakley Little Wood Boise Snake {Heise)
BASIN
Adequate Irrigation
Water Supply (KAF)
Projected March 31 Reservoir Storage
(KAF)
Streamflow Volume
Needed for Adequate
Water Supply (KAF)
(% of Ave.)
90% Chance of Exceedance
StreamflowForecast Apr-Sep
(KAF)
70% Chance of Exceedance
StreamflowForecast Apr-Sep
(KAF)
50% Chance of Exceedance
StreamflowForecast Apr-Sep
(KAF)
30% Chance of Exceedance
StreamflowForecast Apr-Sep
(KAF)
10% Chance of Exceedance
StreamflowForecast Apr-Sep
(KAF)
Salmon Falls 110 22 88 (103%) 9 (-79) 19 (-69) 28 (-60) 39 (-49) 58 (-30)
Big Wood 275 50 225 (85%) 0 (-225) 8 (-217) 20 (-205) 85 (-140) 170 (-55)
Oakley 50 23 27 (87%) 9 (-18) 13 (-14) 14 (-13) 20 (-7) 27 (0)
Big Lost 180 31 149 (99%) 27 (-122) 50 (-99) 75 (-74) 110 (-39) 165 (+16)
Little Lost 40 0 40 (85%) 13 (-27) 19 (-21) 23 (-17) 28 (-12) 36 (-4)
Owyhee 450 75 375 (50%) 85 (-290) 173 (-202) 250 (-125) 340 (-35) 505 (+130)
Boise 1500 545 955 (70%) 200 (-755) 540 (-415) 695 (-260) 850 (-105) 1190 (+235)
Little Wood 60 18 42 (45%) 8 (-34) 23 (-19) 36 (-6) 53 (+11) 83 (+41)
Snake (Heise) 4400 700 3700 (98%) 2270 (-1430) 2940 (-760) 3240 (-460) 3540 (-160) 4210 (+510)
Teton 85 0 85 (44%) 93 (+8) 120 (+35) 141 (+56) 163 (+78) 199 (+114)
Bear River 400 680 0 2 (+282) 10 (+290) 62 (+342) 125 (+405) 217 (+497)
Water Supply Outlook Key: ShortagesSome
ShortagesMarginalSupplies
SufficientSupplies Surplus
February 1, 2014 Water Supply Forecasts, Amount Needed & Shortages Based on the 5 Exeedance Forecasts
Adequate Supply
ReservoirStorage =StreamflowNeeded
March 1, 2014 Water Supply- Amount Needed, Shortages & Surplus Based on All Five Chance of Exceedance Forecasts
Fore-cast
Period Used
BASIN or REGION
Adequate Irrigation
Water Supply (KAF)
Reservoir Storage
(KAF)
Streamflow Volume
Needed for Adequate
Water Supply KAF (%)
90% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
70% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
50% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
30% Chance of Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
10% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
Mar-Sep Owyhee 450 127 Feb28 323 (55%) 49 (-274) 99 (-224) 144 (-179) 197 (-126) 290 (-33)Mar-Sep Salmon Falls 110 20 Feb28 90 (106%) 16 (-75) 26 (-64) 34 (-56) 44 (-46) 60 (-30)
Apr-SepBig Wood 275
60 Mar1370 Mar31 205 (77%) 32 (-173) 82 (-123) 103 (-102) 155 (-50) 230 (+25)
Apr-SepBig Lost 180
30 Mar1035 Mar31 145 (97%) 26 (-119) 55 (-90) 86 (-59) 117 (-28) 162 (+17)
Apr-Sep Little Lost 40 N/A 40 (118%) 15 (-25) 22 (-18) 27 (-13) 33 (-7) 42 (+2)Mar-Sep Oakley 50 18.3 Feb28 31 (100%) 16 (-15) 26 (-5) 34 (+3) 44 (+13) 60 (+29)Mar-Sep Little Wood 60 15 Feb28 42 (46%) 14 (-28) 27 (-15) 39 (-3) 53 (+11) 77 (+35)
Apr-Sep
Boise 1500522 Feb28588 Mar13640 Mar31 860 (63%) 675 (-185) 960 (+100) 1090 (+230) 1220 (+360) 1500 (+640)
Apr-Sep
Snake (Heise) 4400760 Feb28588 Mar13860 Mar31 3540 (98%) 3950 (+410) 4320 (+780) 4570 (+1030) 4820 (+1280) 5190 (+1650)
Apr-Sep Teton 85 N/A 85 (44%) 166 (+81) 200 (+115) 225 (+140) 250 (+165) 295 (+210)
Apr-Sep Bear River 500 700 Mar31 minimal 4 (+184) 61 (+241) 115 (+295) 169 (+349) 248 (+428)
Water Supply Outlook Key: Shortages Some Shortages Marginal Supplies Sufficient Supplies Surplus
March 1, 2014 Water Supply- Amount Needed, Shortages & Surplus Based on All Five Chance of Exceedance Forecasts
Fore-cast
Period Used
BASIN or REGION
Adequate Irrigation
Water Supply (KAF)
Reservoir Storage
(KAF)
Streamflow Volume
Needed for Adequate
Water Supply KAF (%)
90% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
70% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
50% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
30% Chance of Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
10% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
Mar-Sep Owyhee 450 127 Feb28 323 (55%) 49 (-274) 99 (-224) 144 (-179) 197 (-126) 290 (-33)Mar-Sep Salmon Falls 110 20 Feb28 90 (106%) 16 (-75) 26 (-64) 34 (-56) 44 (-46) 60 (-30)
Apr-SepBig Wood 275
60 Mar1370 Mar31 205 (77%) 32 (-173) 82 (-123) 103 (-102) 155 (-50) 230 (+25)
Apr-SepBig Lost 180
30 Mar1035 Mar31 145 (97%) 26 (-119) 55 (-90) 86 (-59) 117 (-28) 162 (+17)
Apr-Sep Little Lost 40 N/A 40 (118%) 15 (-25) 22 (-18) 27 (-13) 33 (-7) 42 (+2)Mar-Sep Oakley 50 18.3 Feb28 31 (100%) 16 (-15) 26 (-5) 34 (+3) 44 (+13) 60 (+29)Mar-Sep Little Wood 60 15 Feb28 42 (46%) 14 (-28) 27 (-15) 39 (-3) 53 (+11) 77 (+35)
Apr-Sep
Boise 1500522 Feb28588 Mar13640 Mar31 860 (63%) 675 (-185) 960 (+100) 1090 (+230) 1220 (+360) 1500 (+640)
Apr-Sep
Snake (Heise) 4400760 Feb28588 Mar13860 Mar31 3540 (98%) 3950 (+410) 4320 (+780) 4570 (+1030) 4820 (+1280) 5190 (+1650)
Apr-Sep Teton 85 N/A 85 (44%) 166 (+81) 200 (+115) 225 (+140) 250 (+165) 295 (+210)
Apr-Sep Bear River 500 700 Mar31 minimal 4 (+184) 61 (+241) 115 (+295) 169 (+349) 248 (+428)
Water Supply Outlook Key: Shortages Some Shortages Marginal Supplies Sufficient Supplies Surplus
March 1, 2014 Water Supply- Amount Needed, Shortages & Surplus Based on All Five Chance of Exceedance Forecasts
Fore-cast
Period Used
BASIN or REGION
Adequate Irrigation
Water Supply (KAF)
Reservoir Storage
(KAF)
Streamflow Volume
Needed for Adequate
Water Supply KAF (%)
90% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
70% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
50% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
30% Chance of Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
10% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
Mar-Sep Owyhee 450 127 Feb28 323 (55%) 49 (-274) 99 (-224) 144 (-179) 197 (-126) 290 (-33)Mar-Sep Salmon Falls 110 20 Feb28 90 (106%) 16 (-75) 26 (-64) 34 (-56) 44 (-46) 60 (-30)
Apr-SepBig Wood 275
60 Mar1370 Mar31 205 (77%) 32 (-173) 82 (-123) 103 (-102) 155 (-50) 230 (+25)
Apr-SepBig Lost 180
30 Mar1035 Mar31 145 (97%) 26 (-119) 55 (-90) 86 (-59) 117 (-28) 162 (+17)
Apr-Sep Little Lost 40 N/A 40 (118%) 15 (-25) 22 (-18) 27 (-13) 33 (-7) 42 (+2)Mar-Sep Oakley 50 18.3 Feb28 31 (100%) 16 (-15) 26 (-5) 34 (+3) 44 (+13) 60 (+29)Mar-Sep Little Wood 60 15 Feb28 42 (46%) 14 (-28) 27 (-15) 39 (-3) 53 (+11) 77 (+35)
Apr-Sep
Boise 1500522 Feb28588 Mar13640 Mar31 860 (63%) 675 (-185) 960 (+100) 1090 (+230) 1220 (+360) 1500 (+640)
Apr-Sep
Snake (Heise) 4400760 Feb28588 Mar13860 Mar31 3540 (98%) 3950 (+410) 4320 (+780) 4570 (+1030) 4820 (+1280) 5190 (+1650)
Apr-Sep Teton 85 N/A 85 (44%) 166 (+81) 200 (+115) 225 (+140) 250 (+165) 295 (+210)
Apr-Sep Bear River 500 700 Mar31 minimal 4 (+184) 61 (+241) 115 (+295) 169 (+349) 248 (+428)
Water Supply Outlook Key: Shortages Some Shortages Marginal Supplies Sufficient Supplies Surplus
March 1, 2014 Water Supply- Amount Needed, Shortages & Surplus Based on All Five Chance of Exceedance Forecasts
Fore-cast
Period Used
BASIN or REGION
Adequate Irrigation
Water Supply (KAF)
Reservoir Storage
(KAF)
Streamflow Volume
Needed for Adequate
Water Supply KAF (%)
90% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
70% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
50% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
30% Chance of Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
10% Chance of
Exceedance Streamflow
Forecast (KAF)
Mar-Sep Owyhee 450 127 Feb28 323 (55%) 49 (-274) 99 (-224) 144 (-179) 197 (-126) 290 (-33)Mar-Sep Salmon Falls 110 20 Feb28 90 (106%) 16 (-75) 26 (-64) 34 (-56) 44 (-46) 60 (-30)
Apr-SepBig Wood 275
60 Mar1370 Mar31 205 (77%) 32 (-173) 82 (-123) 103 (-102) 155 (-50) 230 (+25)
Apr-SepBig Lost 180
30 Mar1035 Mar31 145 (97%) 26 (-119) 55 (-90) 86 (-59) 117 (-28) 162 (+17)
Apr-Sep Little Lost 40 N/A 40 (118%) 15 (-25) 22 (-18) 27 (-13) 33 (-7) 42 (+2)Mar-Sep Oakley 50 18.3 Feb28 31 (100%) 16 (-15) 26 (-5) 34 (+3) 44 (+13) 60 (+29)Mar-Sep Little Wood 60 15 Feb28 42 (46%) 14 (-28) 27 (-15) 39 (-3) 53 (+11) 77 (+35)
Apr-Sep
Boise 1500522 Feb28588 Mar13640 Mar31 860 (63%) 675 (-185) 960 (+100) 1090 (+230) 1220 (+360) 1500 (+640)
Apr-Sep
Snake (Heise) 4400760 Feb28588 Mar13860 Mar31 3540 (98%) 3950 (+410) 4320 (+780) 4570 (+1030) 4820 (+1280) 5190 (+1650)
Apr-Sep Teton 85 N/A 85 (44%) 166 (+81) 200 (+115) 225 (+140) 250 (+165) 295 (+210)
Apr-SepBear River 500
700 Mar3135 Mar31
minimal4 (+184) 61 (+241) 115 (+295) 169 (+349) 248 (+428)
Water Supply Outlook Key: Shortages Some Shortages Marginal Supplies Sufficient Supplies Surplus
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