Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

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Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef{5:/sae} {e`a{ y}afi efe`s{c{ z}aze}ai ms4

=:::/=::3oe}hay }azn}yOefgeyyef

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

5Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

\;9YG[Y&

A9=FI[Y&

\1

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

=Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

=:5:& Ef Cfiazafiafy`s n|fai efi nza}eyai oaoma} nb Yga Z}qiafyce` ]ae` A{yeya Ebst`ceya{, Cfk& c{ e {a}rcka oe}h nb Z}qiafyce` Cf{q}efka Knozefs nb Eoa}cke Auqe` Gnq{cfl Nzzn}yqfcys&E`` oeya}ce` z}a{afyai ga}acf c{ cfyafiai bn}

cfbn}oeycnf zq}zn{a{ nf`s& \gc`a ygc{ cfbn}oeycnf c{ ma`carai yn ma kn}}aky, cy c{ }az}a{afyai {qmdaky yn a}}n}{, noc{{cnf{, kgefla{ n} |cygi}e|e` |cygnqy fny cka& E`` z}nza}ys nqy`cfa{ efi {uqe}a bnnyela cf z}nza}ys `c{ycfl{ e}a ezz}nwcoeya&

Oefgeyyef Oe}hay{

Z}QIafyCe@ InQL@e{ a@@COef

[cfka 5355, Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef ge { maaf }aknlfctai e{ e `aeia} cf }ae` a{yeya m}nha}ela& Fny nf`s ina{

Z}qiafyce` Inql`e{ A``coef {a}ra }a{ciafyce` {e`a{ k`cafy{ |cyg e bq` ` knoz`aoafy nb {a}rcka{, mqy e`{n nb ba}{

}afye` m}nha}ela, }ayec` e fi knooa}kce` {e`a{ efi `ae{cfl, fa| iara`nzoafy oe}haycfl efi {e`a{, }a`nkeycnf

efi {ayy`cfl/cf {a}rcka{, z}nza}ys oefelaoafy z`q{ on}ylela bcfefkcfl efi ycy`a cf{q}efka y g}nqlg }a`eyai

knozefca{&

Yga knozefs ge{ nra} ;,1:: elafy{ cf 2: nbbcka{ `nkeyai cf Oefgeyyef, M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, @nfl C{`efi cfk`qicfl

Yga Geozynf{ efi Fn}yg Bn}h e}ae{, efi c{ }efhai eonfl yga ynz bcra }a{ciafyce` }ae` a{yeya knozefca{ cf yga

feycnf |cyg nra} )5= mc``cnf cf {e`a{ cf =::3& Yg}nqlg cy{ eb bc`ceycnf |cyg Z} qiafyce`, cy c{ knffakyai yn nra}

2=,::: }ae` a{yeya elafy{ cf yga Q[E efi Kefeie lcrcfl cy{ elafy{ yga emc`cys yn {a}ra kq{ynoa}{ faai{ rc }yqe``s

efs|ga}a& Rc{cy z}qiafyce`a``coef&kno yn rca| y gnq{efi{ nb `c{ycfl{ cf yga y} c/{yeya e}ae&

OC@@a} {eOQa@

Oc``a} [eoqa` c{ ef cfiazafiafy }a{ciafyce` }ae ` a{yeya ezz}ec{e` e fi knf{q`ycfl bc}o ygey knra}{ yga l}aeya}

Fa| Sn}h Kcys oay}nzn`cyef e}ae cfk`qicfl z}nza}ys cf Oefgeyyef, M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, M}nfw, [yeyaf C{`efi,

\a{ykga{ya} Knqfys, Bec}bca`i Knqfys, Fn}yga}f Fa| Da}{as, efi @nfl C{`efi cfk`qicfl yga Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h&

Bnqfiai cf 5372, cy{ k`cafy{ cfk`qia inoa{yck efi cfya}feycnfe` b cfefkce` cf{ycyqycnf{, `e| bc} o{, knf{q`ycfl bc} o{,

iara`nza}{, aoz`nsaa }a`nkeycnf knozefca{, kn/nz mne}i{ e fi knfin e{{nkceycnf{, oefelcfl elafy{, cficrciqe`{

efi lnra}foafy elafkca{& Oc``a} [eoqa` z}nrcia{ ezz}ec{e` {a}rcka{ bn} zq}kge{a efi }ab cfefka on}ylela

n}clcfeycnf, kn``eya}e` oe felaoafy, eqkycnf, a{yeya, y}q{y, lcby, icrn}ka, mefh}qzyks, `cycleycnf, mqsa} efi {a``a}

re`qeycnf{ e{ |a`` e{ aw za}y | cyfa{{ {a}rcka{ efi awyaf{cra e{{clfoafy{ knra}cfl }nnb, ge``|es, me{aoafy efi

nyga} knoonf e}ae re`qeycnf{ efi {ge}a e``nkeycnf{&

Nq} eb bc`ceya, Oc``a} Kcka}n c{ ef cfiazafiafy knooa}kce` }ae` a{yeya ezz}ec{e` efi knf{q`ycfl bc}o ygey ezz}ec{a{z}nza}ys cf y ga l}aeya} Fa| Sn}h Kcys oay}nzn`cyef e}ae& Oc``a} Kcka}n z}nrcia{ eirc{n}s {a}rcka{ knfka}fcfl

nbbcka, }aye c` efi oq`yc/qfcy }a{ciafyce`, fa| iara`nzoafy, knooa}kce`, {e`a{ efi `ae{a efe`s{c{&

Oc``a} [eoqa` z}aze}a{ e {a} ca{ nb oe}hay }azn}y{ yg}nqlgnqy yga Fa| Sn}h }alcnf cf eiicycnf yn ygc{ }azn}y

cfk`qicfl effqe` }azn}y{ bn} yga Oefgeyyef Yn|fgnq{a Oe}hay efi Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h [e`a{ Oe}hay e{ |a`` e{

uqe}ya}`s nra}rca|{ nb yga Oefgeyyef Kn/nz efi Knfin [e`a{ efi ]afye` Oe}hay{ e{ |a`` e{ uqe}ya}`s nra}rca|{

nb M}nnh`sf, Uqaaf{, @nfl C{`efi efi yga Geozynf{.Fn}yg Bn}h Oe}hay{

Yga{a oe}hay {yqica{, kq{ynoctai ieye yem`a{, kge}y{, }a{ae}kg zeza}{, eqygn}ai e}yck`a{ efi nyga} gnq{cfl oe}hay}a{nq}ka{ e}a erec`em`a ey|||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno& Bn} iec`s knra}ela nb yga }ae` a{yeya aknfnos, rc{cy yga m`nl4

Oey}cw4 Cfya}z}aycfl Yga ]ae` A{yeya Aknfnos ey oey}cw&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno n} {qm{k}cma yn Yga Gnq{cfl Ga`cw

Znike{y |cyg Dnfeygef Oc``a} ey | ||&ygagnq{cflga`cw&kno |cyg knooafye}s efi nm{a}reycnf{ nf yga gnq{cfl

oe}hay, e{ |a`` e{ cfya}rca|{ |cyg awza}y{ b}no re}cnq{ |e`h{ nb }ae` a{yeya `cba&

Bn} uqa{ycnf{ }ale}icfl ygc{ }azn}y n} bn} ezz}ec{e` cfuqc}ca{, z`ae{a knfyeky yga }azn}y eqygn}, Dnfeygef D& Oc``a},

Z}a{ciafy.KAN ey doc``a}Joc``a}{eoqa`&kno&

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Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

;Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

Cfy}nIQKyCnf

OaygnIn@nLS

Bn} on}a cfbn}oeycnf nf gn| ygc{ }azn}y c{ z}aze}ai, rc{cy4|||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.}azn}y{.oaygnin`nls&zgz

Oe}hay MnQfIe}Ca{

\gc`a yga mnqfie}ca{ bn} yga{a faclgmn}gnni{ e}a z}a{afyai cf aekg oe}hay e}ae ygey c{ efe`stai, e {qooe}s zela

nb e`` mnqfie}ca{ kef ma rca|ai ga}a4 |||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.}azn}y{.faclgmn}gnni/mnqfie}ca{/znzqz&{gyo`

Oe}hay KnRa}eLaYga knra}ela nb yga Oefgeyyef }ae` a{yeya oe}hay cf ygc{ }azn}y cfk`qia{ yga afyc}a c{`efi nb Oefgeyyef&

Yga e}ae{ z}a{afyai nra}`ez cf fqoa}nq{ |es{ makeq{a ygas }ab`aky icbba}afy oe}hay{, faclgmn}gnni{ efi {qm/

faclgmn}gnni{& Yga ynye`{ b}no yga{a m}aehin|f{ awkaai yga nra}e`` Oefgeyyef {yeyc{yck{& Bn} aweoz`a, e knfin

{e`a cf Ke}falca Gc`` c{ e`{n cfk`qiai cf yga Qzza} Ae{y [cia knfin {yeyc{yck{, yga Ae{y [cia knfin {yeyc{yck{, Ae{y.

\a{y.In|fyn|f knfin {yeyc{yck{, Oefgeyyef knfin {yeyc{yck{ efi Oefgeyyef kn/nz efi knfin {yeyc{yck{& Yga ciae

magcfi ygc{ knra}ela ezz}nekg |e{ yn ze}{a oe}hay cfbn}oeycnf cf knoonf`s ekkazyai ia`cfaeycnf{ ygey |a}a

on{y }auqa{yai, z}ekycke` mqy on{y cozn}yefy`s, gei eiauqeya iazyg nb ieye yn awy}eky y}afi{&

Yga{a ell}aleya {yeyc{yck{ kef e`{n ma }arca|ai efi lafa}eyai e{ kq{yno yem`a{ ey4 |||&oc``a}{eoqa`&kno.ieye

{nQ}Ka Ieye

Yga ieye q{ai cf ygc{ }azn}y c{ me{ai nf yga ell}aleya nb yga bnq} uqe}ya}`s }azn}y{ zqm`c{gai iq}cfl yga sae}

me{ai nf yga ieye erec`em`a ey aekg uqe}ya}`s }azn}y }a`ae{a& Ebya} yga afi nb aekg uqe}ya}, makeq{a nb yga `el ma/

y|aaf k`n{cfl ieya efi }akn}icfl ieya, {e`a{ ieye knfycfqa{ yn be`` |cygcf ygn{a uqe}ya}`s }azn}y ycoa b}eoa{& E{ e}a{q`y, ygc{ }azn}y ina{ fny cfk`qia e`` {e`a{ yn nkkq} iq} cfl yga sae} mqy c{ me{ai nf e `e}la afnqlg {eoz`a {cta yn

ma e oe}hay y}afi }aba}afka&

Yga bnq} yem`a{ z}a{afyai bn} aekg oe}hay e}ae4 era}ela {e`a{ z}cka, era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny, oaicef {e`a{

z}cka efi fqoma} nb {e`a{ e}a knf{cia}ai yga {nq}ka ieye nb ygc{ }azn}y efi e}a q{ai bn} yga ekknozefscfl kge}y{

efi oey}cw yem`a{&

KnfyeKy

Oc``a} [eoqa` Cfk&

]ae` A{yeya Ezz}ec{a}{ " Knf{q`yefy{

=5 \a{y ;7yg [y}aay, Fa| Sn}h, FS 5::57

'=5=#

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

1Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,;3;,::5 /5=&1! )5,135,7=; 32! )

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

2Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

Oefgeyyef Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{

ERA]ELA [uqE]A BnnYELA ms mAI]nnO[

=::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I =::3 ELL]ALEYA Zq]KgE[A In@@E][

=::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I ms E]AE =::3 fqOmA] nB qfCY[ [n@I ms mAI]nnO[

@C[YCfL C fRAfYn]s

6 )9O1!

)5O / )9O;1!

0 )5O2:!

6 )9O=

)5O / )9O9

0 )5O=2!

Ae{y [cia

;5!

Qzyn|f1!

In|fyn|f;3!

\a{y [cia=1!

=/Mai}nno

;:!

5/Mai}nno;

[yqicn5

;/Mai}nno5;!

9( Mai}nno;!

:

1::

5,:::

5,1::

=,:::

=,1::;,:::

;,1::

9,:::

9,1::

E`` Oefgeyyef9( Mai}nno; Mai}nno= Mai}nno5 Mai}nno[yqicn

=::3=:::

:

5,:::

=,:::

;,:::

9,:::

1,:::

2,:::

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

[ngn ( Y}cmake Knfin{ /9&7!

Bcfefkce` Ic{y}cky Kn/nz{ /1&5!

\e{gcflynf Gaclgy{ Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /2&2!

In|fyn|f Knfin{ /2&3!

L}aaf|ckg Rc``ela Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /7&3![ngn ( Y}cmake Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&=!

Ge}`ao ( Ae{y Ge}`ao Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&2!

Qzyn|f Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /3&2!

Ke}falca Gc`` Knfin{ /3&

Qzza} Ae{y [cia Knfin{ /5:!

Ociyn|f \a{y ( K`cfynf Kn/nz{ /5:&=!

In|fyn|f Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5:&1!

Qfcnf [uqe}a ( L}eoa}ks ( H cz{ Mes ( Oq}}es G c ` Knfin{ /55&9!

Sn}hrc``a Knfin{ /55&2!

Oefgeyyef Knfin{ /55&3!

Kga`{ae Knfin{ /5=!Kga`{ae Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5=&5!

@afnw Gc`` Knfin{ /5=&5!

Ae{y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fyn|f Knfin{ /5=&9!

Ociyn|f \a{y ( K`cfynf Knfin{ /59&5!

Oefgeyyef Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&=!

Geoc`ynf ( On}fcfl{cia Gaclgy{ Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&=!

Qzza} Ae{y [cia Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&;!

Sn}hrc``a Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&;!

\a{y [cia Knfin{ /59&

Ae{ y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fy n|f Kn/ nz{ ( Knfin{ /59&7!

L}aaf|ckg Rc``ela Kn/nz{ /59&3![qyynf ( Maahoef Kn/nz{ /51!

OE]hAY E]AE ]EfhCfL 'za}kay kela b era}ela z}cka za} {e}a by, =::7/=::3, k/z{, ki{#

Oefgeyyef Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{

IEs[ nf OE]hAY.@C[YCfL IC[KnqfY

@c{ycflIc{knqfy

:

=1

1:

Ae{y [cia ( \a{y [cia ( In|fyn|f Kn/nz{ /5Qzza} \a{y [cia Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /5Ae{y Rc``ela ( @n|a} Ae{y [cia Kn/nz{ /5

Ae{y [cia Knfin{ /53&7!

]cra}{cia I} ( \a{y Afi Era Kn}}cin} Kn/nz{ /=:&5!

@cfkn`f Kafya} Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /=:&

Kafy}e` Ze}h \a{y Kn/nz{ /=5&9!

@cfkn`f Kafya} Kn/nz{ /==&9!

[ngn ( Y}cmake Kn/nz{ /=;&2!

Bcbyg Era ( Ze}h Era Kn}}cin} Kn/nz{ /=9&=!

Ociyn|f Ae{y ( Yq}y`a Mes Kn/nz{ ( Knfin{ /=2&=!

Ociyn|f Ae{y ( Yq}y`a Mes Knfin{ /=

OE]hAY [E@A[ Rn@qOA

Knfin{

Kn/nz{

):

)=,:::,:::,:::

)9,:::,:::,:::

)2,:::,:::,:::

)7,:::,:::,:::

)5:,:::,:::,:::

)5=,:::,:::,:::

)59,:::,:::,:::

)52,::::,::,:::

)57,:::,:::,:::

)=:,:::,:::,:::

=::3=::7=::

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

7Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

OefgeyyefKn/nZ{

e@@ Z}CKa CfICKeyn}{ Zn{y Sae} nRa} Sae} IaK@Cfa{

Cf =::3 aekg nb yga z}cka cfickeyn}{ ba`` b}no yga }akn}i{ {ay cf =::7 efi }ae`ctai yga }{y sae} nra} iak`cfa{ {cfka =::=,

e`ygnqlg yga iak`cfa{ cf =::= |a}a `e}la`s eyy}cmqyem`a yn e {gcby yn {oe``a} qfcy{& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} =::3 |e{

)2=1,:::, 5;! ma`n| yga }akn}i )ba`` 57&=! yn )5,:;:,2;: b}no e }akn}i )5,=13,era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny ba`` =9&=! yn )5,91: b}no )5,359 cf =::7&

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

3Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

OefgeyyefKn/nZ{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,:;:,2;: /57&=! )5,=13,

Fqoma} nb [e`a{ ;,9:5 /=1&7! 9,172 /;7&2! 1,1;1

mnqfIE]sFn}yg4 Ge}`ao ]cra}[nqyg4 Meyya}s Ze}hAe{y4 Ae{y ]cra}\a{y4 Gqi{nf ]cra}

OEY]CW

[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@

=::3 );2;,222 )25

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

5:Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

OefgeyyefKnfIn{

Z}CKa CfICKeyn}{ Be@@ B}nO }aKn}I @aRa@{

E`` yg}aa z}cka cfickeyn}{ {gn|ai iak`cfa{ b}no }akn}i `ara`{ {ay cf =::7, `e}la`s iqa yn fa| iara`nzoafy ekycrcys&

[cfka yga oaaycfl nb yga ocfi{ cf e `e}la zn}ycnf nb fa| iara`nzoafy k`n{cfl{ nkkq}}ai 5=/57 onfyg{ z}cn},

yga nra}e`` iak`cfa cf z}cka{ c{ qfia}{yeyai cf yga{a oay}ck{& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} e Oefgeyyef knfin

|e{ )5,:1:,:::, in|f 5=&1! b}no e }akn}i )5,=::,::: cf =::7, mqy }aoecfai emnra )5,:::,::: bn} yga ygc}iknf{akqycra sae}& Yga oaicef {e`a{ z}cka bn} e knfin cf =::: ey yga malcffcfl nb yga iakeia |e{ )12:,:::& Yga

era}ela z}cka za} {uqe}a bnny |e{ )5,=5:, in|f 55&3! b}no e }akn}i )5,;http://www.prudentialelliman.com/http://www.millersamuel.com/

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

55Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

OefgeyyefKnfIn{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,237,773 /7&2! )5,717,9:7 79&=! )3==,979

Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )5,=5: /55&3! )5,;

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

5=Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

Oefgeyyef @QWQ}S Kn/nZ{ efI KnfIn{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )1,;3;,;73 /59&7! )2,;;:,:3;

Fqoma} nb [e`a{

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Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

5;Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f Kn/nZ{ " KnfIn{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,99=,71= /5;&;! )5,22;,3=1 7mnqfIE]sFn}yg4 \a{y 552yg [y}aay efi Ae{y 32yg [y}aay[nqyg4 Meyya}s Ze}hAe{y4 Ae{y ]cra}\a{y4 Gqi{nf ]cra}

OEY]CW

[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@

=::3 )9;3,

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

15/61

Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

59Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f Kn/nZ{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,:29,5:; /57&3! )5,;5=,:;< 25&;! )213,3:1

Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )3=; /5Oaicef [e`a{ Z}cka )293,::: /5;&;! )

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

16/61

Oefgeyyef

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =:::/=::3

51Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

ae{y {CIa.\a{y {CIa.In\fyn\f KnfIn{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

17/61

ae{y {CIa

Z}qiafyce` inql`e{ a``coef oefgeyyef oe}hay }aZn}y =::: =::3

52Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

ae{y {CIa Kn/nZ{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,;1:,112 /=5&7! )5,

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

18/61

ae{y {CIa

5

8/14/2019 Manhattan 10yr real estate study (1999-2009)

19/61

ae{y {CIa

57Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

QZZa} ae{y {CIaKn/nZ{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )5,93=,Era}ela Z}cka Za} [u& By )5,:=1 /57&

Oaicef [e`a{ Z}cka )OEY]CW

[yqicn 5 Mai}nno = Mai}nno ; Mai}nno 9( Mai}nno E@@

=::3 );9

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20/61

ae{y {CIa

53Bn} eiicycnfe` cfbn}oeycnf Oc``a}{eOqa`&knO p z}qiafyce`a``cOef&knO

QZZa} ae{y {CIaKnfIn{

Kq}}afy Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Sae} ! Kgl Z}cn} Iakeia

Era}ela [e`a{ Z}cka )=,551,:=2 /;&9! )=,577,725 5::&=! )5,:12,1=