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Managing Enrollment by Managing Merit Aid. How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll. Jonathan Jacobs Director of Enrollment Management Research 541-346-7406 jsj@uoregon.edu. Aligning Financial Aid with Enrollment Goals. Our Primary Financial Aid goals: Make UO affordable. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit
AidHow Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll
Jonathan JacobsDirector of Enrollment Management Research541-346-7406jsj@uoregon.edu
Aligning Financial Aid with Enrollment Goals
Our Primary Financial Aid goals:◦ Make UO affordable.◦ Decrease debt load.◦ Leverage existing federal/state aid.◦ Balance need-based and merit-based aid.
◦ Presented in an easily understood manner to students and parents.
What is the Impact?
40% Yield
Resident Admit4.0 HSGPA 60%
Go somewhere else
50% Yield
How much do we need to increase aid to increase yield 10%?
1. What effect does additional merit aid have on the probability of enrollment?
2. How do we model the effect of restructured aid on an entering class?
3. How do we make that model interactive so we can model different aid packages dynamically and instantly?
Research Questions
Modeling Population◦ Freshman Admits, fall 2011
Target Variable◦ BINARY: Student enrolls at the University in the
fall
Model Methodologies
1. Effect of Aid
Neural Network
Independent Variables◦ TOTAL GRANT AID (minus federal/state)◦ High School GPA◦ SAT or converted ACT◦ Admission to Honor’s College◦ Residency◦ Day application was submitted◦ First generation◦ Underrepresented race/ethnicity◦ (REMOVED) UO First on FAFSA (if before May 1)◦ Significant interactions
Independent Variables
Max-Rescaled R-square .25
C-statistic .77
Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test
.57
Scoring Population◦ All new entering freshmen, fall 2011
Probability of enrollment at different aid levels◦ 14 datasets scored through the same model
Example: Bob Apple. GPA: 3.91, SAT: 1110
2. Modeling Aid
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%
Probability of enrolling at the University of Oregon at different merit aid levels.
Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Group populations dynamically. Allow differing aid amounts.
3. Dynamic Modeling
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
15.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.6% 14.2% 14.7% 15.1% 15.6% 16.1% 16.7% 17.7% 19.4% 22.0% 26.0%
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%
Bob Apple, Resident, GPA 3.91, SAT 1110
Chris Coe, Nonresident, GPA 3.86 SAT 1070
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
23.3% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% 15.9% 16.6% 17.9% 20.0% 23.3% 28.0% 34.4% 42.5% 51.8% 61.4%
Kerry Oki, Resident, GPA 4.04, SAT 1380
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=ORIG
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=0
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=1
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=2
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=3
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=4
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=5
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=6
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=7
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=8
GRANTS_NEW_PROG=9
Resident Merit Scholarship
1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Tier* High School GPA
SAT Score
Single Year Award
Tier 1 3.90 -- $2,000
Tier 2 3.80 -- $1,500
Tier 3 3.80 -- $1,200
Tier 4 3.70 -- $1,000
*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process. An additional Dean’s Access grant of $1,000 is awarded to resident students with demonstrated need.
High School GPA
SAT Score
Single Year Award
Summit 3.80 1200 $5,000
Apex 3.65 1150 $3,000
Existing Dean’s Award
New Merit Program
less than 1000 1000-1090 1100-1190 1200-1290 1300+$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$260,664.00
$340,699.00
$459,932.00
$352,834.00$396,699.00
$0.00 $0.00
$724,000.00
$885,000.00
$1,113,000.00
Distribution of Awards to Admitted Students
Total Award Outlay to Residents by SAT band, 2011 Cohort
Dean's Award Actuals
New Merit AwardProjections
Tota
l Outlay
($ in
mill
ions)
Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Nonresident Merit Scholarship
1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Tier* High School GPA
SAT Score
Single Year Award
Tier 1 4.00 -- $7,000
Tier 2 3.80 -- $6,000
Tier 3 3.70 -- $5,000
Tier 4 3.50 -- $4,000
*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process.
High School GPA
SAT Score
Single Year Award
Summit 3.80 1200 $8,000
Apex 3.65 1150 $4,000
Existing Dean’s Award
New Merit Program
Dean Award New Merit Award Dean Award New Merit Award0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4952
641 651
462$1.81
$2.72
$3.62
$2.96
Award Comparison of Aid ProgramsFall 2011 Cohort
Number of Awards Total Expenditure
Nu
mb
er
of
Recip
ien
ts
Tota
l Exp
en
dit
ure
s (
$ in
million
s)
Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Residents Nonresidents
Additional Cost of New Financial Aid Program +$179K (+3.2%)
Increase to Total Resident Awards 50% ($1.8M to $2.7M)
Additional “Summit” Students Enrolled(3.80 HS GPA, 1200 SAT) (Includes nonres)
+129 (+24%)
Enrollment of students with Less Than a 3.00 High School GPA -97 (-77%)
Average High School GPA 3.62 (+0.05 point improvement over model using actual awards)
Average SAT 1123 (+34 point improvement over model using actual awards)
The model shows a net increase of 106 admits enrolling due to reallocating and increasing aid. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs
Benefits of the New Merit AwardAssuming the same 2011 Admit Pool
Elasticity of Demand
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
33.9% 35.4% 37.2% 39.2% 41.6%44.4%
47.7%51.5%
55.8%
Probability of Enrollment at Different Levels of AidResidents, 3.8 HSGPA or higher, 1200 SAT or higher
3.3 point increase to yield.10% persuaded by aid90% already coming
10.5 point increase to yield.
30% persuaded by aid70% already coming
Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit
AidHow Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll
Jonathan JacobsDirector of Enrollment Management Research541-346-7406jsj@uoregon.edu
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