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Los Angeles, Feb 24nd, 2011
Alan KayViewpoints Research Institute
Designing The Future of Software
Vanguard
“News” can be told in a few minutes
“New” = learning, longer & change
News
News: Behold!
New: Fiat Lux!
van der Waalsforces
A Vanguard Talk
45 Minutes!
45 Minutes!
Software Has Fallen Short
Best of 1970s
Best Practice
of Today
What is Needed Today
Quality Bar 1
Quality Bar 2
Quality Bar 3
General Practice Today
General Practice of 1970s
Quality Bar 4
Quality Bar 5
Quality Bar 6
1980 ...
Quality Bar 7
TechnologyTechnology
Tinkering
Engineering
Mathematics Science
Computer Software
Yikes!
People Nature
Forms Engineering SciencesStoriesPaintingTheaterMusicLanguageReligionMathematics
PhysicsChemistryBiologyAnthropologyPsychologySociologySystems
Bridges & People
“The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics
AgricultureBuildingsRadio & TVTelephoneEnginesElectric PowerMechanics
Bridges
People Nature
Forms Engineering SciencesStoriesPaintingTheaterMusicLanguageReligionMathematics
PhysicsChemistryBiologyAnthropologyPsychologySociologySystems
Bridges & People Bridge Science
“The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics
Bridges
AgricultureBuildingsRadio & TVTelephoneEnginesElectric PowerMechanics
People Nature
Forms Engineering SciencesStoriesPaintingTheaterMusicLanguageReligionMathematics
PhysicsChemistryBiologyAnthropologyPsychologySociologySystems
Bridges & People Bridge Science
“The Arts” from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics
Bridges
Computer Systems & People
Computer Systems Computer Science
AgricultureBuildingsRadio & TVTelephoneEnginesElectric PowerMechanics
CopingSocialLanguageCultureFantasiesStoriesTools, Art, TechnologiesGoals, Plans ...Play & GamesFixed Rules, Flexible StrategiesCase based learningCase based reasoningSuperstitionReligion/MagicTheaterDifferences over SimilaritiesQuick Reactions To Patterns"The Other"Supernormal ResponsesVendettaValue Shortages**Loud Noises & Snakes
Human Universals
About 300of these
havebeen
identified
CopingSocialLanguageCultureFantasiesStoriesTools, Art, TechnologiesGoals, Plans ...Play & GamesFixed Rules, Flexible StrategiesCase based learningCase based reasoningSuperstitionReligion/MagicTheaterDifferences over SimilaritiesQuick Reactions To Patterns"The Other"Supernormal ResponsesVendettaValue Shortages**Loud Noises & Snakes
Progress
Writing & Reading
Deductive Abstract Math
Model Based Science
Thought, Thought, Thought
Equal Rights
Democracy
Similarities over Differences
Slow Deep Thinking
Legal System vs Vendetta
Perspective Drawing
Theory of Harmony
Agriculture....
Human Universals And Non-Universals
About 300of these
havebeen
identified
Easy To Learn?
Average Price Of A Car In US = $28,500
Average Price Of A High End Laptop = $2,500
Most people can only experience the present in terms of the past
Which means they can only conceive the future in terms of the present
PresentPast Future
PresentPast Future
What learning curve are you on?
What if the problem is really hard?
For decades many people in many countries tried and failed
What learning curve are you on?
Paul MacCready
“Everyone else was trying to make an airplane. We were trying to do human powered flight!”
“The problem is that we don't understand the problem.
How can we find out what the problem is?”
What if the problem is really hard?
If you don't know what to do,
Do lots of things!
Change the roles and the relationships...
IT End-Users
Using network, automatically find the prototypes the end-users are making and sharing
Use the prototype as good first pass at “requirements”
Optimize
Make more powerful end-user tools and access to resources
...
Editors, helpers Authors
Suppliers, vendors Consumers
A Golden Oldie
From Computer Aided Design Directly To Artifacts
about
Ship The Design
The “computer aided software design system” merges and debugs and “prints” requirements, specifications, and design *as* the app
7 Big Designs From The 70s
Small low cost powerful personal computers
Bitmap displays and ½ Mouse
Graphical User Interface
OOP
High quality laser printing
Ethernet
Internet
About
Dependencies
“Semantic Caching”, etc.
A good hockey player plays where the puck is.
A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.
You miss 100% of the shots you don't take
Go get the future and bring it back
I wasn't naturally gifted in terms of size and speed; everything I did in hockey I worked for
Wayne Gretzky Theory of the Future
The 30 Year “Wayne Gretzky Game”
It would be ridiculous if we didn't have
NowNow 10-15 Years Out 30 Years Out
$HW
If we do optimize, then we can make “far future” apps
We can do many experiments
without having to optimize
Hardware is just SW crystallized early!
Hardware is just SW crystallized early!
Hardware is just SW crystallized early!
Hardware is just SW crystallized early!
Hardware is just SW crystallized early!
Field Programm
able Gate Arrays
What is the message of Moore's Law?
From Gears to Biology!
Moore's Law
What is the message of “From Gears To Biology”?
“No Centers”Extremely ScalableArchitectures
What was late 70s early 80s message ofExtremely Scalable “No Centers” Architectures?
?
What Can You Make With Bricks?
11stst Order Golden: Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials
22ndnd Order Golden: Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures
What Can You Make With Bricks?22ndnd Order Golden: Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures
a|ba|b
?
?
11stst Order Golden: Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials
Try to achieve a scalable “ecology”, then a “psychology”
Not a “biological ecology”but a “systems ecology”
We want an “ecology of competencies”
“architecture dominates materials”
Not a “biological psychology”but a “systems psychology”
“meaning dominates
connections”
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