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LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Looking Forward to South AfricaModeling, Analyzing and Predicting the 2010 FIFA World Cup
Roland C. Deutsch
April 14, 2010
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Contents
1 Introduction
2 Modeling the World CupAssessing the Strength of the TeamsModeling the Outcome of a GameSimulating the World Cup
3 ResultsMost Likely TournamentAnalyzing the DrawGroup-by-Group AnalysisPredictions
4 Conclusions
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Facts about the World Cup
The world’s largest (single sports) event
World-wide impact is only rivaled by the Olympic games
204 federations entered the qualification roundsstarting in 2007
By November 2009, the 32 finalists were determined
Final schedule is determined by the World Cup Draw(Dec 5, 2009)
The World Cup Draw is watched by approximately asmany viewers worldwide as the Super Bowl
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
The Tournament Set-Up
Group Stagethe 32 finalists were divided into 8 groups à 4 teamsRound-robin tournament within each groupWin = 3 points, Draw = 1 point, Loss = 0 pointsThe two teams with the most points from each groupadvance to the knockout stage (various tie-breakers)
Knockout StageFour rounds:Round of 16, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final, FinalThe advancing teams are arranged in a pre-determinedsingle elimination bracketIn the Round of 16, group winners are paired up withrunner-upsIn case of a draw, first two 15-minute overtime periods,then penalty shoot-out if needed.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Qualified Countries
Figure: Qualified nations (in green)
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
The World Cup Draw
The 32 teams were arranged in 4 pots.For each group a team was selected from each potNot more than one team from any continent per groupexcept for Europe
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
The Result of the Draw
Pot Group A Group B Group C Group D1 RSA (85) ARG (6) ENG (7) GER (5)2 MEX (18) KOR (48) USA (11) AUS (24)3 URU (25) NGA (32) ALG (29) GHA (38)4 FRA (9) GRE (16) SVN (49) SRB (20)
Pot Group E Group F Group G Group H1 NED (3) ITA (4) BRA (1) ESP (2)2 JAP (40) NZL (83) PRK (91) HON (35)3 CMR (14) PAR (21) CIV (19) CHI (17)4 DAN (27) SVK (33) POR (10) SUI (13)
Table: The eight first round groups of the 2010 FIFA World Cup.Oct ’09 FIFA rank in parentheses.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Purpose of This Study
Assess the impact of the draw on the 32 teams.Who got lucky?Who did not?
Expected performance for each team.
Comparing expected performance pre- and post-draw.
Predicting the outcome of the World Cup
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Assessing the Strength of the Teams
To determine the relative strength of each team 4 ratingsystems were used
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking (FIFA Rating)World Football Elo Rating (Elo Rating)ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI Rating)A rating derived from the decimal odds for an outrightwin collected from 6 online bookmakers (BookieRating)
All ratings were collected on March 4, 2010.
To assess the strength of teams in a penalty shoot-out, apenalty-kick rating was computed as a weighted proportionof wins from a default 1-1 record and the historical record.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
General Idea
Relating the ratings of two teams, A and B, towin-draw-loss probabilities for team A.
Standardize the rating to mean 0 and variance 1Compute the match rating as mA,B = rA − rB .
Model should be symmetric and . . .. . . for teams of equal strength, the probabilities for awin and a loss should be equal.
Use single game odds from bookmakers from all 48 firstround games.Match them up with the corresponding match ratingsfrom the Bookie Rating.To ensure symmetry, the bookmaker’s favorite wasalways listed first.Convert decimal odds into probabilities.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Converting Single-Game Odds
For the opening game South Africa-Mexico:
Win RSA Draw Win MEX Win MEX Draw Win RSA2.91 3.15 2.33 ⇒ 2.33 3.15 2.91
Convert the decimal odds, d, into probabilities, p, using
p = 1− (d− 1)ψ
1 + (d− 1)ψ.
ψ represents the bookmaker’s profit margin (chosen such that theprobabilities add up to 1). With this
Win MEX Draw Win RSA0.3962 0.2892 0.3146
The match rating is given bymMEX,RSA = (−0.1752)− (−0.3555) = 0.1803.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Data
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Match Rating
Pro
babi
lity
WinDrawLoss
Figure: The averaged win-draw-lossprobabilities for the better of the two teamsobtained from the decimal odds of six onlinebookmakers. Circles are determined byequation 2.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
The Model
Use a logistic regression model to find the best fitting curvefor the probability of a win of the stronger team:
πW (mA,B) =exp(β0 + β1mA,B)
1 + exp(β0 + β1mA,B).
The probability of a loss of team A vs. team B is then givenby
πL(mA,B) = πW (−mA,B) =exp(β0 − β1mA,B)
1 + exp(β0 − β1mA,B).
Obviously, πD(mA,B) = 1−(πW (mA,B) + πL(mA,B)
).
For the collected data, β̂0 = −0.6111 and β̂1 = 0.6262.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Fitted Model
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Match Rating
Pro
babi
lity
WinDrawLoss
Figure: The averaged win-draw-lossprobabilities for the better of the two teamsobtained from the decimal odds of six onlinebookmakers. Circles are determined byequation 2. Also displayed are the fitted curvesfor win (black), draw (red) and loss (green) asobtained from equations 4 and 4.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Simulation Run 1
The model was used to simulate any match for all fourof the standardized ratingsThe World Cup tournament was simulated 10 000times for all four ratings.‘Home-field advantage’ (+0.7) to South Africa.‘Home-continent advantage’ (+0.35) to African teams.No such adjustment for Bookie rating.Ties at the group stage were resolved by random draw.Tied knock-out games were resolved by simulatingovertime and penalty-kicks.For every simulation run, each team’s final position andaverage opponent ratings were saved.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Simulation Run 2
The draw fully determines the World Cup schedule.
To judge the impact of the actual draw, 1 000 alternatedraws were generated.
Same pots as the actual draw.Eliminates the effect of the actual draw.
For each alternate draws, the World Cup tournamentwas then simulated 1 000 times for all four ratings.
For each run each team’s final position and averageopponent ratings were saved.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
The Most Likely Scenario
Figure: Most likely tournament based on all simulations
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Strength of Schedule
Figure: Actual strength of schedule rating
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Impact of Draw
Figure: Difference in actual strength-of-schedule ratingand expected pre-draw strength-of-schedule rating
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group A
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group A
RSAMEXURUFRA
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group A
RSAMEXURUFRA
Stage
Sim
ulat
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group A
RSAMEXURUFRA
Stage
Sim
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group A
RSAMEXURUFRA
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group A
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group B
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group B
ARGKORNGAGRE
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
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0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group B
ARGKORNGAGRE
Stage
Sim
ulat
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bilit
y
0.0
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R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group B
ARGKORNGAGRE
Stage
Sim
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group B
ARGKORNGAGRE
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group B
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group C
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group C
ENGUSAALGSVN
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group C
ENGUSAALGSVN
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
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1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group C
ENGUSAALGSVN
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group C
ENGUSAALGSVN
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group C
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group D
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group D
GERAUSGHASRB
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group D
GERAUSGHASRB
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
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1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group D
GERAUSGHASRB
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group D
GERAUSGHASRB
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group D
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group E
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group E
NEDJAPCMRDAN
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group E
NEDJAPCMRDAN
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
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0.6
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1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group E
NEDJAPCMRDAN
Stage
Sim
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ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group E
NEDJAPCMRDAN
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group E
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group F
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group F
ITANZLPARSVK
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group F
ITANZLPARSVK
Stage
Sim
ulat
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
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1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group F
ITANZLPARSVK
Stage
Sim
ulat
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group F
ITANZLPARSVK
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group F
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group G
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group G
BRAPRKCIVPOR
Stage
Sim
ulat
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roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group G
BRAPRKCIVPOR
Stage
Sim
ulat
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bilit
y
0.0
0.2
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0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group G
BRAPRKCIVPOR
Stage
Sim
ulat
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roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group G
BRAPRKCIVPOR
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group G
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Group H
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
FIFA Rating
Group H
ESPHONCHISUI
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Elo Rating
Group H
ESPHONCHISUI
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
SPI Rating
Group H
ESPHONCHISUI
Stage
Sim
ulat
ed P
roba
bilit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
R16 QF SF F 1st
Bookie Rating
Group H
ESPHONCHISUI
Figure: Simulated Probabilities Group H
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Most Likely Finals
FIFA Rating Elo Rating SPI Rating Bookie Rating
BRA-ESP 0.082 BRA-ESP 0.081 BRA-ESP 0.039 BRA-ESP 0.054ESP-FRA 0.028 BRA-ITA 0.031 BRA-POR 0.019 BRA-ITA 0.028BRA-POR 0.024 BRA-NED 0.029 BRA-NED 0.019 ESP-ITA 0.020BRA-ITA 0.022 ESP-NED 0.023 BRA-CIV 0.017 ESP-FRA 0.019ESP-NED 0.022 ENG-ESP 0.023 ESP-NED 0.016 ESP-NED 0.019BRA-NED 0.017 BRA-POR 0.021 BRA-ITA 0.016 ENG-ESP 0.019ENG-ESP 0.016 ESP-MEX 0.015 ENG-ESP 0.015 BRA-POR 0.018ESP-POR 0.015 BRA-CHI 0.014 ARG-NED 0.013 BRA-CIV 0.017ARG-ESP 0.013 ESP-ITA 0.014 CHI-ESP 0.013 ARG-BRA 0.017ESP-ITA 0.012 GER-NED 0.013 ARG-BRA 0.012 ENG-ITA 0.016
Table: Top 10 final match lineups for the four ratings with theirsimulated probabilities.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
Most Likely Winners
FIFA Rating Elo Rating SPI Rating Bookie Rating
(1) ESP 0.227 (1) BRA 0.224 (1) BRA 0.150 (1) ESP 0.168(2) BRA 0.172 (2) ESP 0.167 (2) ESP 0.128 (3) BRA 0.146(3) NED 0.080 (3) NED 0.103 (5) ARG 0.078 (5) ITA 0.091(7) FRA 0.066 (4) ENG 0.069 (4) NED 0.077 (4) ARG 0.089(4) ITA 0.059 (5) ITA 0.056 (3) ENG 0.076 (2) ENG 0.082(5) GER 0.055 (6) GER 0.048 (7) POR 0.048 (7) NED 0.072(6) POR 0.046 (7) ARG 0.046 (10) ITA 0.044 (8) FRA 0.068(9) ARG 0.036 (8) MEX 0.040 (6) GER 0.043 (6) GER 0.060(8) ENG 0.033 (10) FRA 0.032 (9) URU 0.043 (9) POR 0.042(10) GRE 0.033 (11) POR 0.028 (14) CIV 0.040 (10) CIV 0.037
Table: Top 10 most likely winners for the four ratings with theirsimulated probabilities.
LookingForward to
South Africa
R. C. Deutsch
IntroductionThe FIFA World Cup
The World Cup Draw
Purpose of ThisStudy
Modeling theWorld CupAssessing theStrength of theTeams
Modeling theOutcome of a Game
Simulating the WorldCup
ResultsMost LikelyTournament
Analyzing the Draw
Group-by-GroupAnalysis
Predictions
Conclusions
What Can We Expect Come June?
The draw leveled the field more than expected
Brazil and Spain have unfavorable draws
Chances of France and Italy were boosted
Very open World Cup, possibly leading to a largenumber of upsets
Brazil and Spain remain firm favorites
Brazil-Spain final is most likely
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