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light AND fast
A BLUEPRINT FOR ORGANISATIONS IN A VUCA* WORLD *Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
SwitzerlandThe Eiger 3,970m
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1938
four days (96 hrs)www.patrickhollingworth.com
Ueli Steck2008
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2 hrs 47 mins!
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expedition style vs alpine style
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the future belongs to the alpinist
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why me?
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GEOGRAPHY ANTHROPOLOGY
PSYCHOLOGY
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PEOPLE TEAMS
ORGANISATIONS
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V U C AVolatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity
- likely to change in an extreme way
- cause may be unknown - outcome is unknown
- many interconnected components - volume of information overwhelming
- little or no information - unclear relationships
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STABILITY
CERTAINTY
SIMPLICITY
CLARITY
VOLATILITY
UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEXITY
AMBIGUITY
OLD WORLD
THE TRANSITION
NEW WORLD
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1
2
3
changing social & political relationships
globalisation
rate of technological innovation
THE 3 CAUSES OF VUCA
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2
3
PEOPLE
PLACES
TECHNOLOGY
THE 3 CAUSES OF VUCA
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Q who is this man?
A Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder
“every 18 months, the processing power of a computer chip doubles”
1965
MOORE’S LAW
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PRO
CESS
ING
PO
WER
TIME
COMPUTER CHIP EVOLUTION
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EVO
LUTI
ON
TIME
HUMAN EVOLUTION
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EVO
LUTI
ON
TIME
EVOLUTION
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EVO
LUTI
ON
TIME
EVOLUTION
DISCOMFORT
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STABILITY
CERTAINTY
SIMPLICITY
CLARITY
VOLATILITY
UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEXITY
AMBIGUITY
OLD WORLD
COMFORT DISCOMFORT
THE TRANSITION
NEW WORLD
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1
2
3
nobody likes it
people disengage from it
organisations aren’t structured for it
THE 3 PROBLEMS WITH VUCA
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OBJECTIVE
SWOT & Key Issues
STRATEGY
PLANS
BUDGETS
key performance indicators
LAUNCH
external analysis internal analysis
forecast & gap analysis
key success factors
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“It’s a good job”
“It pays the bills”
“I HATE this place”
SOUNDS LIKE
ENGAGED
DISENGAGED
DESTRUCTIVE
THE ENGAGEMENT SPECTRUM
30%
50%
20%
GALLUP SURVEY 2013:
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“I was BORN to do this job”
“I LOVE this job”
“It’s a good job”
“It pays the bills”
“I HATE this place”
CELEBRATE THESE
MAXIMISE THESE
NORMALISE THESE
MINIMISE THESE
GET RID OF THESE
DESTINY
INSPIRED
SOUNDS LIKE
ENGAGED
DISENGAGED
DESTRUCTIVE
REQUIRED ACTION
THE ENGAGEMENT SPECTRUM
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expedition style
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iridium
alpine style
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alpine style
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DRIVE / MOTIVATION
OPENNESS / CURIOSITY
FLEXIBILITY / ADAPTABILITY
THE EXPLORER’S MINDSET MODEL
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DO KNOW
BE
- sense making - decision making - getting critical
- strength - weakness - risk tolerance
- open (growth mindset) - learning from failure - non-alpha male
missionautonomy
VISION
engagementmastery resilience & grit
purpose
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THE ALPINE STYLE ORGANISATION
1
2
3
sense make
decision make
get critical
3 DO’S
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COMFORT
CREATIVITY
ImagineSee
Show
Act
Look
SENSE MAKE
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3 x 4 MATRIX
VOLATILE
UNCERTAIN
COMPLEX
AMBIGUOUS
PEOPLE PLACES TECHNOLOGY
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Daniel Kahneman
Thinking Fast and Slow
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FAST THINKING AND SLOW THINKING
slow thinking
fast thinking
Complete the phrase “salt and…”
Whistle a tune while you are driving
Answer:1 + 1 = ?
Solve a complex riddle
Give someone else directions while you are driving
Understand the ideas within this slide
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FULL SPECTRUM DECISION MAKING
EMOTIONAL SUB- CONSCIOUS
RATIONAL
slow thinking
fast thinking
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CRITICAL
UNCRITICAL
GET ALONGDON’TGET ALONG
Old World
New World
GET CRITICAL (TEAM BUILDING)
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STABILITY
CERTAINTY
SIMPLICITY
CLARITY
VOLATILITY
UNCERTAINTY
COMPLEXITY
AMBIGUITY
OLD WORLD
COMFORT DISCOMFORT
THE TRANSITION
NEW WORLD
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If you liked the ideas and concepts in this presentation, send an email to hello@patrickhollingworth.com to receive a fortnightly piece Pat writes about all things
VUCA. Subscribers have said nice things about it, such as “this is rather good!”
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www.whatisvuca.com
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Light and Fast will be released by Wiley on 1st March 2016.
Please email hello@patrickhollingworth.com if you’d like to pre-order a copy.
slow thinking
White Papers
Pat will release a new white paper based on this presentation and including a few additional ideas and models in a few week’s time.
Please email hello@patrickhollingworth.com if you’d like to receive a copy.
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