Life After Google - The Way Forward for US Internet ......Supermarkets like Taobao vs. niche...

http://sprie.stanford.edu

Life After Google - The Way Forward for US Internet Companies &

Investors in China

Stanford University, April 13th 2011

Duncan Clark, Visiting Scholar, SPRIE & Chairman, BDA China

Highlights for distributionduncanc@stanford.edu

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

China 2.0 is an ongoing research initiative of SPRIE at Stanford University focused on the drivers & global implications of growth in Chinaʼs Internet.

• How are entrepreneurship & innovation fueling the rise of Chinese Internet firms? • How do these firms differ from their US peers? • Is Chinaʼs experience relevant for other emerging markets? • Is there a future for US Internet players in China? • How will Chinese Internet firms fare overseas?

Victor Koo (CEO, Youku) keynoting China 2.0 Beijing, October 2010

Inaugural China 2.0 eventStanford, May 2010

Ongoing speaker series through May 2011. Next China 2.0 conference Fall 2011 at Stanford

http://sprie.stanford.edu Wednesday, April 13, 2011

#china20 China 2.0

Keep connected to China 2.0

http://sprie.stanford.edu

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Source: ITU, BDA ForecastWednesday, April 13, 2011

5 of the top 20 websites in the world by traffic are in China

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

.co.jp

.co.in

.de

.com.hk

.co.uk

Source: Alexa

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Source: Alexa

.com.hk

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Google & Amazon remain the worldʼs most valuable listed Internet companies. Baidu is #3 followed by Tencent & eBay. Taobao &

Facebook have yet to list.Market Cap Comparison (USD Million)

*Market Cap on April 12th 2011 Exchange rate: 1 USD=7.77 HKD Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Google & Amazon remain the worldʼs most valuable listed Internet companies. Baidu is #3 followed by Tencent & eBay. Taobao &

Facebook have yet to list.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Market Cap Comparison (USD Million)

*Market Cap on April 12th 2011 Exchange rate: 1 USD=7.77 HKD Wednesday, April 13, 2011

May 1897

January 2010

Is it fair to talk about ʻafter Googleʼ in China?

RIP 1835 - 1910

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Googleʼs “New Approach” to China

January 12th 2010

March 22nd 2010

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

New approach

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Baidu vs Google China: Market Share

RMB Billions

Revenues

Baidu Google

Source: iResearch, Company information

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

0%

23%

45%

68%

90%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Baidu vs Google China: Market Share

0

2

4

6

8

0.91.7

3.2

4.4

7.9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RMB Billions

Revenues

Baidu Google

Source: iResearch, Company information

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Facebook global map

The World* - Chinaʼs above it all (new middle kingdom?)

* Not available in all States. Use only as directed.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Role Model for Strategic Investment

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Now is the Winter (and Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer & Autumn..?)

of our Discontent

Tahrir Square Jasmine Non-Event

(so far)

Inflation a Real Concern

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Leadership transitionFall 2012

Hu Jintao Wen Jiabao Xi Jinping Li Keqiang

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Can US Internet companies gain more from being in China than they lose from scrutiny at home?

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

0

200

400

600

800

201020112012 2013 2014 2015

Can US Internet companies gain more from being in China than they lose from scrutiny at home?

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Supermarkets like Taobao vs. niche operatorsSelected China eCommerce verticals

BooksAudio-Visual

CigarettesAlcohol

Tea

Clothing

Food & Beverage

TravelJewelry

Supermarkets

Footwear

Luxury

Cosmetics

3CComputers

CommunicationsConsumer Electronics

Healthcare Products

Source: BDA research

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Sina Weibowww.weibo.com

Source: Penn Olson

Is China just about cloning?Twitter can learn a thing or two from Sinaʼs Weibo

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Competition spillover: China <-> US

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Are we at the centre of the PowerPoint?

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Send us your feedback!

duncanc@stanford.edu mhancock@stanford.edu

#china20 China 2.0

Wednesday, April 13, 2011