Leveraging Institutional Data & Department of Education Resources

Leveraging Institutional Data & Department of Education Resources

Help First Generation Students Manage Their Success &

Cross the Finish Line 

Course Obstacles and Running the Race

Course Obstacles and Running the Race

Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment

Course Obstacles and Running the Race

Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment

Resources from Department of Education

Course Obstacles and Running the Race

Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment

Resources from Department of Education

Leveraging your existing resources and data to create a GPS for your students’ success

Running into

Headwinds and Headlines

Running into

Headwinds and Headlines

the Chronicle of Higher Educationarticles over the last 9 years…

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent

09/17/2008, by Paul Basken

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent

09/17/2008, by Paul Basken

Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent

09/17/2008, by Paul Basken

Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field

Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton

Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years

Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD

Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY

Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent

09/17/2008, by Paul Basken

Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field

Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton

  Hurricanes Are Blamed for Loan-Default Rate Jump

09/26/2008, by PAUL BASKEN 

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

College costs have increased

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

College costs have increased

Worst job market for graduates since WWII

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

College costs have increased

Worst job market for graduates since WWII

Student loans are getting more expensive

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

College costs have increased

Worst job market for graduates since WWII

Student loans are getting more expensive

2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever”

Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003

Borrower Limits have greatly increased

Home equity no longer a tool

College costs have increased

Worst job market for graduates since WWII

Student loans are getting more expensive

2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever”

Average Debt $27,300 (Mark Kantrowitz)  

Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?

(The 2003 World Series - The Florida Marlins defeated the New York Yankees in six games, 4–2)

Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?

Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)

Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?

Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)

Financial literacy efforts  

Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?

Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)

Financial literacy efforts

Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone)

Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?

Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)

Financial literacy efforts

Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone)

Loan comparison tools-phone booth or cell?  

Do you have a game plan?

Small/Under-Resourced School Division

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Small/Under-Resourced School Division

Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders

Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.

Small/Under-Resourced School Division

Historically Black Colleges & Universities – 99 Hispanic Serving Institutions – 168 Tribal Colleges and Universities – 32

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Small/Under-Resourced School Division

Small/Under-Resourced School Division

SURSD Services and Training• Internal Institutional Title IV

Assessments• Specialized Staff Training• Technical Assistance• On-campus Site Visits• Management Consultations

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Small/Under-Resourced School Division

Expand opportunities for these institutions to participate in Federal Programs.

Proactively identify the unique service needs of HBCU’s, HSI’s, and TCC’s as it relates to the management of the Title IV programs.

Services have expanded to include a broader population of all under-resourced schools.

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Small/Under-Resourced School Division Provide the assistance required to

ensure continued participation in the Title IV programs which the institution has chosen to participate.

35

Small/Under-Resourced School Division

Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders

Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.

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Contact Information

Joel V. Harrell, DirectorSmall Under-Resourced Schools Division

Federal Student Aid(404)974-9307

Joel.harrell@ed.gov

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Managing Retention

A good deal of institutional data is “stove piped.” However, if that data is joined, it can be effectively used to identify students and student borrowers who may be at risk.

This, in turn, can be used to create strategic intervention points to promote retention.

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Managing Default Rates

Students are terribly misinformed about their future debt obligations and income potential.

Institutional default rate management is most effective when schools still have control over their students post-graduate plans.

The future of delinquency management is going to be pre-emptive.

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Different sides of the same die

Enrolling, persisting and successfully financing a postsecondary education program are NOT mutually exclusive endeavors.

Institutional analyticsProjected Demographics

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2009

= 1

.0

Female Minority Aged 25+ Delayed Entry

Historical Projected

Projected Unemployment

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

USA

CT

Historical Projected

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Proportion Female 51.1% 51.0% 51.0% 51.1% 51.1% 51.1% 51.1% 51.0% 50.7% 50.5%(% change) -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%

(trend) Proportion Minority 39.6% 41.5% 43.8% 46.1% 48.3% 50.5% 52.6% 54.3% 55.7% 57.2%

(% change) 4.8% 5.4% 5.3% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6%(trend)

Proportion Aged 25+ 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%(% change) -6.0% -5.9% -5.8% -5.7% -5.5% -5.2% -4.9% -4.5% -4.1%

(trend) Proportion Delayed Entry 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

(% change) -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%(trend)

Nationalb 9.4% 8.7% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1%(% change) -7.7% -6.8% -5.9% -5.1% -4.4% -3.8% -3.2% -2.7% -2.8%

(trend) Connecticutb 8.8% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7%

(% change) -7.7% -6.8% -5.9% -5.1% -4.4% -3.8% -3.2% -2.7% -2.8%(trend)

Demographics

Unemployment Rate (U-3)

Institutional analytics (cont’d)

Historical Drivers of the Relative CDR Position

RankFactor(explanatory power) Notes

1 Proprietary Institution (8.5%)

One of the largest general factors

2Percent of Students receiving Pell Grants (5.4%)

~60% received Pell Grants in 2008-09

3Associate’s and Certificates Focus (3.7%)

Certificates are particularly associated with high CDRs

4High Proportion of Non-Traditional Students (3.7%)

Large proportion of students entering school after 30

5National Unemployment Rate(1.1%)

Aggregate levels correlated with national unemployment rates

Total 21% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers

Drivers of CDR Projections

RankFactor(explanatory power) Notes

1Local Unemployment Rate(48.9%)

Strong response to the current economic downturn

2Increase in Non-Traditional Students(5.5%)

• Older students• Students returning to

school after career

3Increase in Female Enrollment(-3.6%)

Steady growth mitigates CDR increases

4Increase in Certificates Awarded(3.1%)

Associated with higher default rates

5Lower Enrollment of Traditionally Underrepresented Groups (1.0%)

Growth mitigates CDR increases

Total 55% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers

Institutional analytics (cont’d)

Assumptions:

PercentileAverage

Mode10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th

2-Year CDR 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3%

3-year CDR 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 5.1% 6.3% 4.4% 3.5%

Factor Baseline Monte Carlo Range

Female Enrollment –0.1% annual increase -2.1% to +1.9% annual increase

Minority Enrollment +4% annual increase 0% to +8% annual increase

Aged 25+ Enrollment –6% annual increase –10% to –2% annual increase

Delayed Enrollment –4% annual increase –8% to 0% annual increase

Unemployment NABE projection Varied across Blue Chip projections

Results: 3-Year CDR

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2-Year CDR

0% 5% 10% 15%

ESM Chaperone1001 19th Street NorthSuite 1200Arlington, Virginia 22209info@esm-sls.com877.453.9933

Thank You

Carlo SalernoArlington, Virginiainfo@esm-sls.com

Joel V. HarrellJoel.harrell@ed.gov

Mike O’GradyNicole VerrettAtlanta, Georgiainfo@financialaidservices.org