Latest Trends in Worker Demographics · 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 Short-Tenured...

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Latest Trends inWorker Demographics

Barry Lipton, FCAS, MAAAPractice Leader and Senior ActuaryNCCI

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Insights on Shifting Demographics

Aging Workforce and Its Implications

Gender and Education

Short-Tenured Employees

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Aging Workforce and Its Implications

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Aging WorkforceHistorical and Projected Changes in Labor Force, Millions

▪ 2018–2028 has large growth in two groups of workers:

Share of 2018 total labor force, age 16–24 13% 25–44 43% 45–64 37% 65 and Older 6% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program

–1.0

+2.0

+3.0

+3.8

–1.3

+4.8

–0.7

+6.1

Age Range

25–44 Years

16–24 Years

45–64 Years

65 and Older

▪ 65 and Older

▪ 25–44 Years

▪ 65 and Older grows from 6% to nearly 10% of workforce by 2028

2008–2018: +8 million

2018–2028: +9 million

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2018

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006

Cases per 10k FTE

Frequency Is Rising for Oldest WorkersBLS Incidence Rates by Age Range

FTE = Full-time equivalent workersSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program

▪ Frequency has fallen most for workers age 25–44

▪ Frequency for workers age 65 and Older has increased in the last two years

25–44

16–24

45–64

65 and Older

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

5 Days

14 Days

0

10

20

16–19 20–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65 and Older

Older Workers Lose More Time For Work-Related InjuriesMedian Days Away From Work by Age Group, All Injuries

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses; Days lost per injury with at least one day away from work.

Median Days AwayFrom Work

Median All Workers

8 Days

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

16–1

9

20–2

4

25–3

4

35–4

4

45–5

4

55–6

4

65 a

nd

Old

er

0

10

2017Days

5Days

Falls, Slips, Trips and Overexertion Drive InjuriesMedian Days Away From Work by Age Group, Injury Event

Younger Older

16–1

9

20–

24

25–

34

35–

44

45–

54

55–6

4

65 a

nd

Old

er

20 Days

4 Days

16–

19

20–

24

25–

34

35–

44

45–

54

55–

64

65 a

nd

Old

er

6 Days

4 Days

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses; Days lost per injury with at least one day away from work.

Younger Older Younger Older

Falls, Slips, Trips Contact InjuriesOverexertion

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Gender and Education

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Employment Growth Varies by Age and GenderCumulative Change Since 2015

55+ years Men fasterthan Women

25–54 yearsWomen faster than Men

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

–5

-

+5

+10

+15

+20

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Percent

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

▪ As the workforce ages, more Women above age 50 will hold college degrees

MenHigher

WomenHigher

College Degree Attainment Varies by Age and GenderProportion of Adults With a Four-Year Degree by Age Range, 2018

▪ Age 60 and Older: more Men have college degrees than Women

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

25–29

30–34

35–39

40–44

45–49

50–54

55–59

60–64

65–69

70–74

75+

- 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

MenWomenAge

Range

▪Women’s labor force participation at older ages will likely increase

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Short-Tenured Employees

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Short-Tenured Workers Suffer Disproportionate Share of Injuries

▪ New workers: A third of injuriesbut only a fifth of employment

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses

0

20

40

Under 1 year

Percentshare

2014 2016 2018

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0

20

40

60

80

Under 1 year 1–5 years 5+ years

Percentshare

2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018

Short-Tenured Workers Suffer Disproportionate Share of Injuries

▪ New workers: A third of injuriesbut only a fifth of employment

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses

▪ Workers 5+ years:Half of employmentbut only a third of injuries

0

40

Under 1 year

Percentshare

2014 2016 2018

Concern: Share of injuries of short-tenured workers will rise post-Coronavirus

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

▪ Short-Tenured Workers Could Be:

▪ Same employer → Same job

▪ New employer → Same occupation

▪ New employer → Different occupation

Tenure and Implications of Coronavirus

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Conclusion

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Why Is This Important?

Worker-centric model requires knowing the injured worker

Comorbidities more likely for older workers

Women tend to have different comorbidities than men

CLAIMS

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Why Is This Important?

Turnover and tenure are relevant to underwriting

Historical patterns are shifting due to economic shock

UNDERWRITING

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Why Is This Important?

Safety management and loss prevention can put extra focus on short-tenured workers and older workers

LOSS PREVENTION

© Copyright 2020 NCCI Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Thank You