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Large Starts Issues for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session and Seminarand Seminar
San Francisco, CASan Francisco, CA
February 15-16, 2006February 15-16, 2006
2
Large Starts Issues and Possible Direction
Topics• Eligibility• Project Evaluation and Ratings• Project Development Procedures
3
Eligibility – SAFETEA-LU Definition
Fixed guideway means:
(A) Using and occupying a separate right-of-way or rail for the exclusive use of public transportation and other high occupancy vehicles; or
(B) Using a fixed catenary system and a right-of-way usable by other forms of transportation
4
Eligibility Issues for BRT
• Use the percentage of project in fixed guideway and if so, how should project be defined?
• Use percentage change in travel time?
5
Project Evaluation and Ratings – SAFETEA-LU Key Changes
• Measures of Project Justification– Mobility– Economic Development– Land-Use– Reliability of Forecasting Methods (Cost & Ridership)– Environmental benefits– Operating Efficiencies– Cost-Effectiveness
• Measures of Local Financial Commitment– Stability/Reliability of Capital Funding– Stability/Reliability of Operating Funding– New Starts Share
• Other Measures Secretary Deems Appropriate
NEW
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Project Evaluation and Ratings – Option 1 Framework
• New project justification criteria- economic development impacts- reliability of forecasting methods for costs and ridership
• Existing project justification criteria- transit supportive land use policies and future patterns -- mobility improvements- environmental benefits- operating efficiencies- cost effectiveness
• Existing financial commitment criteria
7
Project Evaluation and Ratings – Option 2: Develop New Framework
Organize measures into the following categories• Nature of the problem or opportunity• Effectiveness of the project as a response• Cost effectiveness• Financial capability• Risk and uncertainty
– Current land use and plans and polices– Reliability of forecasting methods (ridership, costs, funding)
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2: Develop New Framework
Financial Uncertainty Profile
Project Merit Financial Capability
Nature/Extent of Problem or Opportunity
Effectiveness - Mobility - Transit Depend - Econ developmt - Env benefits
Capital Funding
Cost Effectiveness-Capital cost-O&M cost-Mobility
Non New Starts Share
O&M Funding
Adjusted Financial
Rating
Merit Uncertainty Profile
Adjusted Project Merit
Rating
Project Uncertainty- LAND USE: Current vs. Plans and Policies
- Reliability of Forecasting Methods for Ridership, Costs, and Funding
9
Project Evaluation and Ratings - Land-Use vs. Economic Development
• Land Use– Conduciveness of project corridor to achieving
effectiveness goals– Essentially indicates the uncertainty in forecasts of
mobility benefits similar to other external factors like parking costs, gas prices and CBD growth
– NOT impact of the project
• Economic Development – Impact of Project on Land Use and Economic Growth– Project benefit measure
10
Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Nature of the problem/opportunity
Purpose: To clearly characterize the purpose of the proposed project in terms of specific problems or opportunities in the corridor– Bus travel speeds– Current highway speeds compared to projected future
speeds Vacancy rates– Ratio of land value to current development– Vacancy rates
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Mobility
Purpose: Indicate how much the average traveler benefits and whether many benefit– User Benefits per passenger mile– Projected transit ridership in corridor
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Mobility for Transit Dependents
Purpose: Indicate how much transit dependents benefit– Share of user benefits to lowest income strata
households/share of lowest strata households in region
13
Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Economic Development
Purpose: Determine the extent to which the project will contribute to economic development– Current land use in the corridor– Development plans and policies– Economic development climate– Project accessibility benefits– Permanence of the proposed investment
14
Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Environmental Benefits
Purpose: Indicate how much emissions and energy consumption is reduced
- Tons of emissions
- BTUs
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Operating Efficiencies
Remove as separate measure because it is addressed in cost effectiveness
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Cost-Effectiveness
Purpose: To determine whether the benefits are commensurate with the costs to achieve them
Annualized cost ($) User benefits (hours)
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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Financial Capability
Purpose: To ensure that the project sponsor has the funds to construct the proposed project– Capital funding– O&M funding– Non-New Starts share
18
Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures
Risk and Uncertainty
Purpose: To support informed decision-making by understanding the uncertainty in evaluation measures– Land use - current vs. plans and policies– Forecasting methods - ridership and costs– Peer project experience– Funding reliability/ability to absorb cost increases or
funding shortfalls
19
Project Development Procedures
Local Endorsement of the Financial Plan• Sponsoring agency proposes specific funding
sources, amounts and strategies to obtain funding
• Funding agencies endorse pursuit of funding with timeframe
Rationale• Strengthens commitments to financial plan
20
Project Development Procedures
Approval of the Baseline Alternative• Baseline defined as the best that can be done
without building a fixed guideway• FTA concurs with the set of detailed alternatives• FTA approves the baseline when final
alternatives developed
Rationale• Clarify baseline definition and approval process
21
Project Development Procedures
On-Board Transit Survey• Require recent (5 years?) on-board survey for PE
approval
Rationale• Support reliable forecasts of transportation
benefits• Support identification of purpose and need
22
Project Development Procedures
Preliminary Engineering Purpose and Exit Criteria• Sufficient to complete NEPA• Firm cost estimate without significant unknown impacts• Cost sufficient to support financing strategy• Guidance on activities completed at PE completion Rationale• Defines PE• Supports policy of fixing new starts amount• Minimizes possibility of wasted resources due to
increasing capital cost estimate in FD
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