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Kentucky Weather Hazards: What is Your Risk?
Stuart A. Foster
State Climatologist for Kentucky
2010 Kentucky Weather Conference
Bowling Green, Kentucky
January 16, 2010
Perspectives on Kentucky’s Climate
• A natural resource that helps to support a way of life …
• An ever-present threat of natural disasters …
NWS Jackson WFO
NWS Louisville WFO
Natural Hazards Related to Kentucky’s Weather and Climate
• Drought
• Floods
• Cold Waves
• Heat Waves
• Damaging Winds
• Lightning
• Hail
• Tornadoes
• Flash Floods
• Snowstorms
• Ice Storms
Hazard Vulnerability
Hazard Mitigation
Disaster Preparedness
Emergency Response
Disaster Recovery
Source: National Research Council, Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions. Washington, D.C., National Academies Press, 2006.
Know Your Geography
• Disaster Preparedness requires knowledge of
Hazard Vulnerability and Emergency Response
• Geography matters!
– Topography and land cover
– Population distribution by time of day
– Transportation network
River Floods
The Great Flood of January 1937 • Precipitation averaged 15.77” statewide
• Some locations recorded over 22” for the month
• Over 50% of Louisville, 95% of Paducah flooded
• Damage exceeded $3 billion (2008 dollars)http://hazardkentucky.com/flood.htm
Hazard, KY 1963
Communities of the Kentucky, Cumberland, Big Sandy, and Licking River basins have been devastated by flooding on many occasions, including 1927, 1937, 1957, 1977, and 1997.
Photo from Courier Journal
NWS Louisville WFO
Photo Credit: Rick Shanklin, Source: NWS Paducah WFO
Winter Storms
Hazards
• Snow
• Ice
• Cold Waves
NWS Paducah WFO
Where is the line?
• Transportation
• Communications
• Electricity
• Water
Impacts associated with disruptions of key networks:
Three in One
Winter Storm of 1994
• Up to 1” of ice covered by 6” to 26” of snow
• Interstates and highways closed for 5 days
• Some communities isolated without power
• Record low of -37° F recorded at Shelbyville
Severe Storms
Hazards
• Lightning
• Damaging Winds
• Hail
• Tornadoes
Locations across Kentucky average between 40 and 50 thunderstorm days per year.
Derecho
• Formed in Illinois and swept through Indiana and Kentucky during the evening hours
• Wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph reported
• L G E most widespread power outage since 1974 outbreak
Tornado Tracks1950-2008
Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service
Tracks of Violent Tornadoes1950-2008
F4 and F5 tornadoes
Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service
Tornado Days1950-2008
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
0
10
20
30
40
Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service
Tornado Hours1950-2008
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour
0
20
40
60
Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service
Tornado Path Length by Year1950-2008
Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
0
20
40
60
80
Mile
s
Tornado Outbreak: April 3,1974
• At least 26 tornadoes struck 39 counties on April 3rd
• 77 people killed and 1,377 injured
• Brandenburg destroyed by F5 tornado, leaving 28 dead
Photos from NWS Archive
Tornado Outbreak: April 3,1974
• 7:55 p.m. CDT
• 9:00 p.m. CDT
• 11:30 p.m. CDT
Photo Credit: Mike Schwendeman, Source: NWS Louisville WFO
Richmond, KY
Pulaski County was hit by three tornadoes
Bowling Green HailstormWarren County April 16, 1998
Impact in Warren County
• 11,000 homes damaged
• 10,000 automobiles damaged
• 16 airplanes damaged or destroyed
• Damage estimated over $500 million
Accompanied by tornadoes, high wind, and torrential rain that produced urban flooding
Urban FloodJefferson County August 4, 2009
• First severe thunderstorm warning issued 6:38 a.m.
• First flash flood warning issued 7:36 a.m.
• Final report of torrential rain at 10:23
• Numerous reports of torrential rain, hail, winds, flooding
Photo Credit: Walter Kalewski, Source: NWS Louisville WFO
Photo Credit: Joe Sullivan, Source: NWS Louisville WFO
Photo Credit: Mike Howard, Source: NWS Louisville WFO
Louisville Urban FloodAugust 4, 2009
• Up to 6” within 3 hours
• Extensive property damage
• No fatalities, no injuries
Photo Credit: Joe Sullivan, Source: NWS Louisville WFO
NWS Louisville WFO
Trammel Creek FlashfloodAllen County June 23, 1969
Frozen Creek FlashfloodBreathitt County July 4-5, 1939
• Precipitation estimates anywhere from 3” to over 12” in four hours
• Wall of water estimated at 20’ or higher
• Without warning, 79 people died
Source: www.breathittcounty.com
Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood Events1978-2005
Source: Climate Research Laboratory, Kentucky Climate Center, Western Kentucky University
Drought Years in Kentucky
• 1854
• 1881
• 1901
• 1904
• 1908
• 1913-14
• 1930
• 1936
• 1941
• 1953-54
• 1963-64
• 1988
• 1999-2000
• 2007
• Annual precipitation deficits of 15 to 25 inches• Growing season precipitation averaged 51% of normal• Record high temperature of 114° F • Extreme heat in July with 100° F or higher on 15 days
Drought of 2007
April 3rd
August 21st
Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, Weekly Archives
Drought of 2007
Socio-economic Impacts
• Reduced crop yields• Stress on fish, wildlife, and livestock• Damage to trees and shrubs• More frequent wild fires• Water use restrictions imposed• Limited recreational opportunities• Increased power costs
Implications of Climate ChangeMean and Extreme Conditions
Summary
• Kentucky is at risk to a wide variety of weather-related natural hazards.
• Disaster preparedness begins with knowing the geography of your area.
• Disaster preparedness increases with your level of understanding of the threat.
Kentucky Mesonet
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