Jittipat Poonkham Faculty of Political Science Thammasat University Ukraine in Transit: From...

Jittipat PoonkhamFaculty of Political Science

Thammasat University

Ukraine in Transit: From Euromaidan to Eastern Question

MH17 Incident

Outline

• Structural vs. Immediate Cause • Russian Interests in Ukraine • From Euromaidan to anti-Maidan– Crimea – Eastern Question: Donetsk and Luhansk

• Conclusion

Euromaidan and Its Discontents:Explanations

• Structural Explanation• Immediate Explanation

I. Structural Explanation Ukraine (as Borderland)?

• Politics of Regionalism: West vs. East– West: Ukrainian-speaking; agricultural; catholic – East/ South: Russian-speaking; industrial; Russian

Orthodox • Politics of Elections • Politics of foreign policy orientations: pro-

European vs. pro-Russian

Viktor Yanukovich (Party of Regions: 48.98%) – Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland: 45.47%)

Politics of Foreign Policy: Historical Cycles

• 1991-1994: Leonid Kravchuk – pro-European • 1994-2004: Leonid Kuchma – pro-Russian • 2004: The Orange Revolution • 2004-2010: Viktor Yushchenko – pro-European

• 2010-2014: Viktor Yanukovych – pro-Russian

Russian Interests in Ukraine

• The right of the Russian-speaking compatriots– Near abroad as “a sphere of privileged interest”

• Energy factor– Ukraine as a transit state – Politics of pipelines

• The Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol• Ukraine within the Eurasian Customs Union

(by 2015) • Keep NATO out

Ukrainian-Russian Relations under Yanukovych (2010-2014)

• February 2010: Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions) won the presidential election. – April 2010: Kharkiv Accords – Sevastopol lease

extended 25 years to 2042 for cheaper gas.– against NATO membership – Jailed Yulia Tymoshenko in 2011 for “abuse of

office” – Favored a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade

Agreement (DCFTA) and an Association Agreement with the EU

II. Immediate Cause

EU(Associatio

n Agreement)

(DCFTA)

Russia

Viktor Yanukovych

II. Immediate Cause

EU• Small number of loans • With heavy strings attached• The austerity measures

Russia • $15 billion in soft loans;

cheaper natural gas • No strings attached

Viktor Yanukovych

The Euromaidan “Revolution”

Euromaidan: Timeline

• 21 Nov. 2013: Yanukovych’s deferral of Ukraine’s European integration

• 21 Nov. 2013-21 Feb. 2014: the emergence of the Euromaidan

• State violence: Three Events – (1) 30 November 2013 – (2) 16 January 2014– (3) 18-21/22 Feb 2014: The “February Revolution”

• 82 dead and many wounded

• 21 Feb 2014: a deal?

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Euromaidan: Two Interpretations

• Horizontalism – peoples’ participation– The role of social media

• Elite politics –Opposition parties –mass mobilization

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)

• Average age: 36 years old• High education • Ukrainian speaking, with some Russian

speaking • 57.2% male; 42.8% female • 49.8% came from Kiev; the remainder from

other regions

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)

• More than 92% of Euromaidan participants did not belong to any political party; joined the movement for following reasons:– 70% because of the aggression against students

during the night of 30 November – 53.3% to protest against the decision not to sign

the Association Agreement with the EU – 50% to change their lives for the better – 39% to change those in power in Ukraine

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up(Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv)

Language Russian Ukrainian Both Difficult to say

25.90% 54.60% 18.60% 0.90%Education Professional

training Basic Education

Higher Education

Still Studying

22.10% 14.40% 62.70% 0.80%Age 15-29 30-54 55 or older

38% 49% 13%Sex Male Female

57.20% 42.80%

I. Horizontalism: Civil Resistance

• Economic boycotts of business associated with the Yanukovych regime

• Building and expanding citizens’ media• “Automaidan” • Neighborhood Watch Groups • The Open University of Maidan: lectures and

discussion • “Euromaidan SOS” • Occupy Movement• Music: e.g. “Vitya Ciao” (Goodbye Viktor)

II. Opposition Elites in EuromaidanFatherland

(Batkivshchyna) – Yulia

Timoshenko

Svoboda (fascist Nazi)

– Oleh Tyahnybok

UDAR (“Punch”) (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms)

– Vitali Klischko

Opposition leaders Vitali Klitschko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleh Tyahnybok

Fascist Movement

• Militarization of the protest – Self Defence

(Samooborona) – Right Sector (Pravy

Sektor)• Symbols: the black-

and-red flag (Ukrainian Nazi)

A Deal (21 Feb)?

• Talks between government and opposition • Mediators: foreign ministers of Germany,

Poland and France • An agreement – A return to the 2004 Constitution (parliamentary

system)– Increasing the power of the Rada – Calling presidential election by December 2014

New Interim Government:Fatherland + Svoboda

President Olexander Turchynov PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk

A Breakdown of the Deal?

• Impeachment of Yanukovych • Criminalization of Yanukovych and his comrades

(of Party of Regions) -- > ICC • Early presidential election: 25 May 2014 • New laws – banning the Russian language as a second language – Disbanding the Berkut riot police

• Challenging the status of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

Causes – Consequences?

•Protest: Euromaidan •State violence by the Yanukovych government

•A temporary deal •A Breakdown of the Deal: Marginalizing the Russians

•Russian Responses -- > military presence

The Rise of Anti-Maidan

• The East: Donetsk/ Luhansk/ Kharkiv

• The South: Crimea • Symbols: Russian flags,

regional flags • A battle between

Euromaidan vs. anti-Maidan protesters

Crimea – Simferopol/ Sevastopol

• Pro-Russian protesters vs. Tatars

• 26 Feb. confrontation in front of the local parliament

Russian Responses?

Russian Responses

• 26 Feb: Military exercises near border to prepare for a potential “crisis situation”

• 1 March: Russian Parliament unanimously votes to send troops to Ukraine

• More than 13,000 Russian naval personnel in Sevastopol

• Russian Parliament introduced a law allowing for regions to join Russia by referendum if its host country does not have a “legitimate government”.

Putin’s Speech (4 March)

• An “unconstitutional coup”

• Russian troops as “self-defence groups”

• A “humanitarian mission” to protect Russian peoples

• Yanukovych as the legitimate president; no political future

From Euromaidan to Anti-Maidan

• (1) Crimea • (2) Eastern Question

I. The Crimean Referendum

15 March: UN Security Council

• Russia vetoed UN Security Council Resolution condemning Crimea referendum

• China abstained.

16 March: 96.8% for joining Russia

18 March: Russia-Crimea Treaty

Western Reaction

• Sanctions and travel ban (17 March) • UNGA Resolution (27 March)

II. The Eastern Question

The Eastern Question

• 7 April 2014-present • Pro-Russian militants (Donetsk/ Luhansk)– Occupied government buildings – Declaring independent “Peoples’ Republics”– Regional referendum in May

• 15 April: Ukraine’s “antiterrorist” operation• 17 April: Geneva accord • Violence • 11 May: Donetsk and Luhansk declared

independence after referendum

25 May 2014: Petro Poroshenko

Ukraine under Poroshenko

• Attempts to reestablishing Russia-Ukraine relations – 6 June: Putin and Poroshenko called for a quick end to

the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine – 25 June: Putin cancelled a parliamentary resolution

authorizing the use of Russian forces in Ukraine • 16 June: Russia’s gas cutoff • 20 June: Poroshenko’s 15-point peace plan and

unilateral (one-week) truce• 27 June: an Association Agreement with the EU

Shooting Down Military Planes

• 2 May: two military helicopters in Slavyansk, two killed

• 29 May: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 14 killed

• 14 June: a military plane in Luhansk, 49 killed • 24 June: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 9

killed • 14 July: a An-26 transport plane in the east

Conclusion?

• Weak State?– Failed State? – Bankrupt state? = loans with high strings attached

(IMF)? • Federalization or decentralization as a way

forward? • Russian-Ukrainian War?• International Military Intervention?

Conclusion: A divided Ukraine in a divided Europe?