J.D. Hochstein, L.E. Fletcher, J.I. Rojas, I.A. Christensen, D. García and C. Borrero On behalf of...

J.D. Hochstein, L.E. Fletcher, J.I. Rojas, I.A. Christensen, D. García and C. BorreroOn behalf of Team Project TREMOR*

International Space University, Summer Session Program 2007, Beijing, China

Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing & a Proposed Prototype Processing & a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning SystemEarthquake Early Warning System

IntroductionIntroduction

• Earthquakes ARE a major hazard for populations around the world, causing loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to buildings and infrastructures (see Fig. 1)

Fig. 1: Global Deaths and Damage Due to

Earthquakes (1990-2006) (NGDC, 2007)) • Team TREMOR (Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response) of 36 space professionals proposed two space-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes

• The first proposal is an Earthquake Early Warning System

State of the Art & Gap AnalysisState of the Art & Gap Analysis• Recent research on PRECURSOR PHENOMENA (e.g., thermal IR, seismo-electromagnetic emissions and ionospheric anomalies) basis for the FORECASTING of EARTHQUAKES [1-5] (see Fig 2)

• BUT: Understanding of the science behind far from complete. Controversial in many quarters [6], due to scarce and not conclusive available data at present.

• Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors (see Fig. 3): insufficient for resolving the precursor issue [1]. Their performance (spatial and temporal resolution) does not satisfy the requirements for proper validation of forecasting models

• SPACE TECHNOLOGIES, together with GROUND-BASED SYSTEMS, may make it possible to deliver earthquake early warning, provided the above mentioned and other deficiencies are addressed

Fig. 2: Possible channels of the LAI coupling [5]. Fig. 3: Examples of space-based precursor monitoring.

ConclusionsConclusions

• A reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space-based and/or ground-based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before a seismic event occurs

• Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, though the science behind these is far from complete

• Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue [1]

• To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time, and then integrated and processed

• TREMOR describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre

• This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system

ReferencesReferences

[1] Pulinets, S.A. & Boyarchuk, K. 2004, Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. 1st edn, Springer, Berlin , Germany

[2] Hattori, K. & Hayakawa, M. 2007, Transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, vol. 127(1): 4-6

[3] Pulinets, S.A. 2006, Advances in Space Research, vol. 37(4): 643-652

[4] Kodama, T. et al. 2000, Middle Atmosphere and Lower Thermosphere Electrodynamics, vol. 26(8): 1281-1284

[5] Hayakawa, M. et al. 2004, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, vol. 29: 617-625

[6] Geller,R.J. 1997 Geophysical Journal International, vol. 131(3): 425-450

[7] Jason, S. J. et al. 2003, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 361(1802): 169-173

Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing Integrated Earthquake Precursor Data Processing && Earthquake Early Warning SystemEarthquake Early Warning System

Global Deaths and Damage from Earthquakes (1990-2006)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

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90,000

100,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

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ths

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140,000

Da

ma

ge

(in

US

D m

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s)

DeathsDamage

GPS ground segment

Tectonic plate A Tectonic plate B

IONOSPHERE

Atmospheric Electrical Field

7. Radon detection

8. Air temperature and humidity

IONOSPHERE

6. InSAR

ALOSGPS

4. TEC changes

DEMETER

5. VLF

Aqua/ MODIS Terra/ MODIS

8. Cloud data

NOAA

1. Thermal IR LST, SST

2. Thermal IR LOR

Space weatherRADARSAT

Seismic focus

Heating

3. SLHF

• The proposed system provides:

→ A dedicated mission platform for scientific validation of earthquake precursor effects

→ A basis for the development of an operational earthquake early warning system

• Functional requirements that fulfills:

→ Long-term, multi-pronged simultaneous repeated monitoring of precursors over target areas

→ Real-time integration and processing of data from different sources: precursor data, historical data and space weather data

→ Dedicated long term data storage and computational processing resources

→ Effective data management for historical referencing and effective international data sharing

DATA ANALYSISDATA ANALYSIS

DATA

PROCESSINGDATASOURCES

FORECASTING

MODEL

DATA

WAREHOUSE

Issue Watch/Warning

EQ HistoricalRecords

Knowledge Base

Real Time

Offline

DATA

MARTS

DistributedComputation

ScientificCommunity

Other Clients

• Precursor data sources: data is gathered from:

→ Space-based systems: existing missions + proposed small scale satellite constellation based on [1,3,4,7]

→ Ground-based systems: used to enhance accuracy and to validate measurements from satellites locally

→ Airborne systems: balloons and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs)

• Constellation: 2 satellites (150 kg each) in circular coplanar LEOs to monitor ionospheric precursors and seismo-electromagnetic emissions (sufficient thermal IR data is readily available from existing satellites) [3]

• Data analysis & integration module:

→ Processes data and delivers watch or warning to corresponding autoritative organization

→ First layer performs real-time computations: data fed into forecasting model that identifies trends that can lead to the issue of a watch or warning

→ Second layer (executed off-line) takes care of data archiving, further post-processing and distribution

→ Archive based on data warehousing

* Members of Team TREMOR: Blanco Delgado, Nuria; Blinova, Alexandra I.; Borrero del Pino, Cristina; Christensen, Ian A.; Coffey, Emily; Dong, Xingang; Exposito Cossio, David; Feng, Qiang; Fletcher, Lauren; Gallardo Valdivia, Beatriz; Garcia Yarnoz, Daniel; Harrison, Paul; Hochstein, Jason; Hou, Jinbao; Komeili-Zadeh, Amir; Kondo, Hajime; Kumagai, Daichi; Lavalle, Marco; Liberda, Jonathan; Martin, Annie; Modi, Shaun; Moser, Linda; Mylonas, Apostolos; Oki, Tomohisa; Parvataneni, Sunil; Pironti, Delfina; Proserpio, Laura; Rasheed, Adam; Rodrigues, Ana Margarida; Rojas, Jose; Sarkar, Somya; Stone, Jennifer; Toitsiou, Georgia; Wang, Xiaoyan; Jie, Yang; and Yoshihara, Maki