pietro.cazzato@italdesignart.siat.torino.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Future... · 2018. 3....

pietro.cazzato@italdesign.it

Tony SebaStanford University

NYC 5th Av.

1900

US.National Archivies

Tony SebaStanford University

NYC 5th Av.

1913

US.National Archivies

1898 New York

watervat.blogspot.it/

60% GDP

50% Population

20% Italy’s Surface

4M 5M 9M

*WWF Italia

Po Valley

*Censimento Istat

Milano1971 1.750.000

1971 8.543.000

2011 1.250.000

2011 9.704.000

1971 1.160.000

1971 4.430.000

2011 870.000

2011 4.360.000

Lombardia

Torino

Piemonte

Urban Sprawl

*Motorizzazione Civile

**WWF Italia

1980

10km/D0,38

2007

20km/D0,58

2017

25km/D0,62

*Car/Person(North Italy)

**km/Day(average

North Italy)

PM 2,5 PM 1

Criteria

Pollution

PM

SO2

NOx

CO

Pb

VOC

PM 10

PM 10 Deposit in the extra thoracic

upper tracheo-branchial

region

PM 2,5 Deposit in deeper lung

PM 1 Pass in the circulatory

system

(Source:*Inventario Regionale Emissioni Atmosfera)

40%

19%

17%

10%

4%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

PM 2,5North

Italy

2015*

PM 2,51990-2015*

60%

40%

20%

0

-20%

-40%

-60%

Thermal Inversion

*Image NASA

200ppm

410ppm

2100

2018

1800

100.000 Y 300 Y

800ppm

50 kg = 157 kWh 157 kWh = 1.570 kg

700 km

0,28 kg/kWh 10 kg/kWh

=

Moore’s Law

TB

2004 2014 2024

32

32.000 32.000.000

Gordon Moore

1965

2 hour

100/day

1 year

1000/day

100 year

300180

100 30

3

10

*$/kWh

*kg/kWh

24.000$

800 kg

2.400$

240 kg

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

14.500$

560 kg

8.000$

440 kg

-90%

75,5

-70%

2015 2020 2030 204080

kWh

A lifespan of 135,000 miles is the figure used for US midsize cars by the UCS in their 2015 report, Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave. The Dutch TNO’s

lifespan assumption (used for these calculations) is a shade longer: 220,000 km (or 136,700 mi).

*Thalia Verkade

Well to Wheels

*Total Lifetime CO2 emission

50 tonn

35 tonn

18 tonn

Pump to WheelsWell to Pump

Sustainability

Software & Internet

Computing & Electronic

Healthcare

Automotive

*Source: Bloomberg

16,1

13,9

12,7

12,7

12,1

12,0

11,4

10,1

10,0

9,6

9,3

9,1

7,3

9,1

7,9

*201715 Top

R&DSpender

B$

ADAS Autonomous Driving Assistant System

1900-19580 1 1958-2010 2 2010-2017

3 2017-2025 4 2025-2040 5 2040

Powertrain-Chassis

Body-Trim

Electric-Electronics

Software*McKinsey

60%

35%

5%

2000

40% 40%

12% 3%

2010

30% 30% 25%15%

2025

20% 20% 30% 30%

2040

Image Iain Macmillan

1900

200.000

3.500.000 8.000.000

4.000.000

200

1/17.500

1/1000

344

1/23.250

1/46.500

1/428.000

9.000.000

1.000.000

1/46.500

21

NYC

2003

NYC

2040

NYC

watervat.blogspot.it/

-

1900 2003 2040

0,05*Dead/billion km

3,1*Dead/billion km 620/1

*UK Transportation Dept.

Digitalization

1990

19902018

1

8

122100

2020

1800

41975

21925

31960

100.000 300

20%

80%

1800

70%

30%

2018

80%

20%

2100

*Source :UN

*2030 34 Megacities 15% World population

*50% of World population lives on 1% on the dry land

19502030

ImageGoogle inc.

*Source :UN

Web

Web

120.000 jobs/sqkm

27.000 pp/sqkm

141.000 jobs/sqkm

London (City)

peak density

UK Census 2011

59.000 pp/sqkm

151.000 jobs/sqkm

NYC (Upper East side)

peak density

US Census 2010

111.000pp/sqkm

Hong Kong (West Kowloon)

peak density

HK Census 2006

August 14th, 2010,

11 days traffic jam.

China,

National Highway 110

Los Angeles 170h

New York 129h

Moscow 127h

Rome 97h

Source: Tom Tom

*Source: INRIX Transportation Institute

USA&Europe

Cost of traffic

congestion

2013-2030*

(Billions US Dollars)$480B$469B $2.800B$691B

$30B $33B $44B $186B2030

$3.100 $3.200 $2.900 $2.3002030

Urbanization

2040VisionMobility

DigitalizationSustainability

2018

20182040

Future Mobility business model

Hardware Software App Store ApplicationTelecom

Supplier

OEM

Tier 1 Supplier

(System)

Tier 2 Supplier

(modules or component)

Tier 3 Supplier

(raw materials, intermediate goods)

Source: A.T. Kearney 2016

Disintermediation

OEM

IT

Partner

Online Partner

Telecom Partner

Tier-X Supplier

Device

Manufacturers

*A.T. Kearney 2016

*500 Billion $/Year

2040 Vision Mobilty

1020 $ 550 $ 784 $

London (City)

monthly parking rates

NYC (Time Square)

monthly parking rates

Hong Kong (ICC)

monthly parking rates

* Source: Colliers Inter. * Source: Colliers Inter. * Source: Colliers Inter.

1h/day 30km/day

250.000 km 23 Years

12h/day 720 km/day

250.000 km 350 Days

30

24/1

17M

10M

10M

2018 2040

240M

*Deloitte University press

2018

Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group

20182040

Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group

2018

Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group

20182040

Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group

2040 Vision Mobilty

*World

Ageing

Population

Over 601990-2100

*Source: UN

Dept. of Economic and Social affair

1990 2020 2050 2100

3,1B

27%

2,1B

21%

1B

15%

0,5B

10%

2040 Vision Mobilty

*Forecast

total miles

drive in

USA

timeline

2020 2025 2035 2040

99%

80%

*Deloitte University press

100%

100%

50%

50%

Dead/year

(X 1000)(μg/m3)

**20.000 €

6 Year (4.000 € final value)

12.000 km/Year

0,500,25

50

10

37

1030

60

$/km**km/haverage

2018 2040

*Deloitte University press

Forecast

benefit

for ADAS

USA*

NewMobility

Issues

Battery production and recycling

ADAS Technology

Infrastructure

Legal & Liability

Political lobbyng

Every morning in Thank you!pietro.cazzato@italdesign.it

the Future

Bibliography

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