Is it Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) – "Star War» ? No it is New Epi- demiological...

Is it Strategic

Defense Initiative(SDI) – "Star

War» ?

No it is New Epi-demiological World-wide Strategic De-fense Initiative -(NEWSDI)

Indeed noone, even most highly developed

country can not be safeguarded against

spreading of epidemic through its broads,

from the country that was choosen by

bioterrorist as a target of their attack.

So we must create this system as quicly as

it possible, accoirding Churchill’s words:

«If you are going through hell,

keep going».

Sir Winston Churchill

The distinctive feature of such

system will be joining in

technological gear software that

allows the different dynamic and

optimization tasks solution and

joining the scientists in the common

networks :

1. Elaboration of Special

Supercources for Increasing the

Efficacy of Medical Education,

That Take into Account the

Epidemiological Challenges of Our

Time (Training in Areas of

Medicine, Public Health and

Prevention) [8,9].

To facilitate the rapid identification

of a bioterrorist attack, all healthcare

providers and public health

personnel should have basic

epidemiological skill and knowledge

of what to expect in such a setting.

It refers not only to personnel of epide-miological service, but also the emergency room personnel who first detect a problem, the pharmacists and hospital laboratories staff (scientists and public health workers). The early detection and timely notification about bioterrorist attack depends on qualification of the specialists mentioned above.

2. Monitoring of Epidemiological

Situation for Timely Identification of

Bioterrorist Attacks and Prevention

of Epidemics at Early Stage of Its

Development.

A small outbreak of illness could be an

early warring of a more serious attack.

Recognition and prompt institution of

preventive measures (such as effective

vaccines and antibiotics) could weaken

the negative consequences of

bioterrorist act.

3. The Ranking of Different World

Regions on the Degree of Bioterrorist

Threat and Damage After Potential

Bioterrorist Attacks.

It allows early recognition of risks and

identification and ranking of critical

factors, which determine rare events.

It also allows identify the weakest link

under various scenarios of bioterrorist

attacks and redistribute means for help to

national services responsible for

bioterrorist attacks prevention and

liquidation of their consequences.

4. Elaboration of Technology for

Differential Diagnosis of Epidemics.

Such systems allow to: a) determine the epidemic curves and compare with curves-examples during previous years to determine if the rate constitutes a deviation from the norm and differentiate between a natural outbreak and intentional attack;

b) calculate possible incubation period, that

also is one of the main factors,

that may increase the efficacy of differential

diagnosis of epidemic characters;

c) rank risks of intentional attack on the

basis of data about illness rate, source of the

outbreak (point source or not), unusual

features (for transmission season, multiple

simultaneous epidemics of different diseases

etc).

5. Determination of Bioteroririst attack

Risk Dynamics

Risk is determined as the

function of dynamic vari-

ables that characterize so-

cial, political and econo-

mical processes the state

of epidemic control system

and health care in whole.

It allows calculating the optimal controls,

minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on

civilian population. It includes the optimal

means redistribution to increase the

efficacy of bioterrarist acts prevention

activities and elaboration of the

recommendations for their consequence

liquidation.

6. Elaboration of Effective Measures to Prevention and Liquidation of Terrorist Acts Consequences under Various Their Scenarios

Estimation of efficacy should be calcu-

lated on the basis of medicobiological,

social and economical criteria. It should

also be take into account cost/benefit

analysis and other indices that characterize

the states of ecology economics, health-

care and social tension.

7. Elaboration of

Recommendations for

International Law Unification to

Increase the Efficacy of Struggle

with Bioterrorist Threat and

Minimizing the effects of Terrorist

Acts on Civilian Population.

It is necessary the joint efforts of all

nations for such program elaboration.

Now we have the propitious moment for

this program, as the tragedy in USA

shown the reality of bioterrorist threat to

all world – to USA, to Russia, to Europe

Community, to Developed countries. It is

well known, that ...

«The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing». Edmund Burke

CONCLUSION

Possible Applications of Advanced Biotechnologies for Terrorism and

Criminality have increased

It is neccasary the early recognition of the risks of rare events

It is neccasary the integral assessing the threat of bioterrorism

It is neccasary to create the Global System of Epidemiological Defense

Сombined utilization of modern telecommunication technologies and biological weapon leads to a

strong multiple effect

This lecture is based on1. Meltzer M.I et al Modeling Potential Responses to Smallpox as a Bioterrorist Weapon // Emergind infectious diseases. –2001.- ,Vol 7.-N.6.- P. 959 – 969.2. Henderson D.A. Bioterrorism as a Public Health Threat // /vol14 no3 /hendersn.htm3 . National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID)4. Bioterrorism: How Prepared Are We? 5. Pavlin J.A. Epidemiology of bioterrorism

6. Zilinskas R.A. Iraq’s biological weapons: The past as future? // J. Am.Med.Ass.- 1977.-V. 278.-P. 418-4247. LaPorte R.Terror inAmerica 8. LaPorte R., Sayer F., Gamboa C. et al.Terrorism: the epidemiology of fear.Part1Supercourse: The epidemiology, -Internet and Global Health. 9. LaPorte R., Sayer F., Gamboa C. et al.Terrorism: the epidemiology of fear. Part 2. Supercourse: The epidemiology, -Internet and Global Health.