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ION 2008 An Analysis of MMOG Subscription GrowthION 2008 An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth
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An Analysis of MMOG
Subscription Growth
Bruce Sterling Woodcock
MMOG Analyst
MMOGCHART.COM
Who is this guy?
• 1988 – Began playing Internet multiplayer games, primarily MUDs and TinyMUDs
• 1990 – Briefly ran TinyMUD Classic and Islandia• 1997 – Began playing MMOGs (Ultima Online)• 2000 – Angel investor in Playnet, Inc. makers of
World War II Online• 2002 – Began tracking MMOG subscriptions• Today – Independent MMOG analyst, consultant,
and writer, MMOGCHART.COM• No formal training in business, financial, or market
analysis.
Types of Market Research
• Primary Research (NPD, DFCI, comScore, etc.)(also known as field research) involves the collection of data that does not already exist. This can be done through surveys, interviews, focus groups, field tests, or observation.
• Secondary Research (MMOGCHART.COM)(also known as desk research) involves the summary, collation, and/or synthesis of existing information compiled from other sources.
The first subscription chart (almost)
Where do you get your numbers?
• Press releases (EA, Sony, Mythic, Blizzard)
• Public financial documents (NCSoft, Vivendi)
• News articles (magazines, newspapers)
• Other public statements (conferences, message boards, etc.)
• Direct disclosure (Ankama, CCP, CipSoft)
• Anonymous sources (most everything else)
• Data points are rated for reliability
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
10,000,000
10,500,000
11,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
200,000+
Ultima Online
Lineage
EverQuest
Dark Age of Camelot
RuneScape
Final Fantasy XI
EVE Online
Star Wars Galaxies
Lineage II
Dofus
EverQuest II
World of Warcraft
The Lord of the Rings Online
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
70,000 - 700,000
Ultima Online
EverQuest
Asheron's Call
Dark Age of Camelot
Tibia
Final Fantasy XI
The Sims Online
EVE Online
Toontown Online
Second Life
Star Wars Galaxies
City of Heroes / Villains
Dofus
EverQuest II
Dungeons & Dragons Online
Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
The Lord of the Rings Online
Tabula Rasa
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
0 - 120,000
The Realm Online
Asheron's Call
Anarchy Online
World War II Online
Majestic
Motor City Online
Earth & Beyond
Neocron
Asheron's Call 2
The Sims Online
There
A Tale in the Desert
EverQuest Online Adventures
Shadowbane
Mankind
PlanetSide
Toontown Online
Second Life
Sphere
Yohoho! Puzzle Pirates
Horizons
Era of Eidolon
Neocron 2
The Matrix Online
Dungeons & Dragons Online
Auto Assault
Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
Pirates of the Caribbean Online
Pirates of the Burning Sea
R² = 0.9871
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
16,000,000
17,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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sTotal MMOG Active Subscriptions
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
16,000,000
17,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Total MMOG Active Subscriptions - Absolute Contribution Pirates of the Burning Sea
Tabula Rasa
Pirates of the Caribbean Online
The Lord of the Rings Online
Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
Auto Assault
Dungeons & Dragons Online
The Matrix Online
World of Warcraft
EverQuest II
Neocron 2
Dofus
City of Heroes / Villains
Era of Eidolon
Horizons
Yohoho! Puzzle Pirates
Sphere
Lineage II
Star Wars Galaxies
Second Life
Toontown Online
PlanetSide
EVE Online
Mankind
Shadowbane
EverQuest Online Adventures
A Tale in the Desert
There
The Sims Online
Asheron's Call 2
Neocron
Earth & Beyond
Final Fantasy XI
RuneScape
Tibia
Motor City Online
Dark Age of Camelot
Majestic
World War II Online
Anarchy Online
Asheron's Call
EverQuest
Lineage
Ultima Online
The Realm Online
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Perc
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Base
Total MMOG Active Subscriptions - Relative Contribution Pirates of the Burning Sea
Tabula Rasa
Pirates of the Caribbean Online
The Lord of the Rings Online
Vanguard: Saga of Heroes
Auto Assault
Dungeons & Dragons Online
The Matrix Online
World of Warcraft
EverQuest II
Neocron 2
Dofus
City of Heroes / Villains
Era of Eidolon
Horizons
Yohoho! Puzzle Pirates
Sphere
Lineage II
Star Wars Galaxies
Second Life
Toontown Online
PlanetSide
EVE Online
Mankind
Shadowbane
EverQuest Online Adventures
A Tale in the Desert
There
The Sims Online
Asheron's Call 2
Neocron
Earth & Beyond
Final Fantasy XI
RuneScape
Tibia
Motor City Online
Dark Age of Camelot
Majestic
World War II Online
Anarchy Online
Asheron's Call
EverQuest
Lineage
Ultima Online
The Realm Online
World of Warcraft62.4%
RuneScape7.4%
Lineage6.5%
Lineage II6.2%
Final Fantasy XI3.1%
Dofus2.8%
EVE Online1.5%
EverQuest II1.2%
EverQuest1.1%
The Lord of the Rings Online0.9%
City of Heroes / Villains0.8%
Tibia0.6%
All Others5.4%
MMOG Subscriptions Market Share - April 2008
Fantasy RPG94.2%
Sci-FI / Superhero RPG3.7%
Combat Simulation / FPS0.2%
Social / Puzzle / Other1.9%
MMOG Subscriptions Market Share By Genre - April 2008
So…
That’s all very cool, Bruce, but do all these fancy charts actually tell us anything useful?
R² = 0.9871
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
22,000,000
24,000,000
26,000,000
28,000,000
30,000,000
32,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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sTotal MMOG Active Subscriptions - Projected
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08
Yearly Subscription Growth - 12 month trailing average
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
World of Warcraft
World of Warcraft (North America) World of Warcraft (Europe) World of Warcraft (Asia) World of Warcraft (Worldwide)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
Traditional Retail Launch
Ultima Online
EverQuest
Asheron's Call
Dark Age of Camelot
Final Fantasy XI
Star Wars Galaxies
City of Heroes / Villains
EverQuest II
Dungeons & Dragons Online
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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MMOG Active Subscriptions
Digital Distribution
Tibia
RuneScape
EVE Online
Second Life
Dofus
Broad Conclusions• The MMOG subscription market continues to grow; 16M+
now, 20M+ in 2009 (pred. 2006), 30M+ in 2012 (new)• World of Warcraft to peak at 11M – 12M by 2010 (new)• Most retail-launched MMOGs have an initial growth phase
during the first year, followed by 1 – 3 years of a more stable, “mature” subscription base, and then a noticeably and often sharp decline. (This is similar to a log-normal fit.)
• MMOGs that rely on digital distribution show a much slower, organic growth over time.
• New markets grow subscriptions, but expansions packs mostly cover churn and provide a retail presence.
• A recovery from poor launch is unlikely.• The market is overwhelmingly dominated by fantasy-based
RPG games.• Much more detailed analysis is possible.
Other metrics besides monthly subscriptions
• Daily Average Concurrent Users (ACU) and Peak Concurrent Users (PCU)
• Average weekly/monthly uniques• Average revenue per user (ARPU) – ARPU/hour• Neilsen Ratings? Arbitron?• Evolving business models – free to play,
microtransactions, advertising, “velvet rope” access, etc. make direct comparisons of those MMOGs to subscription-based MMOGs difficult.
• Good overview of this topic at http://www.raphkoster.com/2006/06/01/measuring-mmos/
Benefits of Transparency
• Improves your company’s ability to make good business decisions. (Of course, it helps your competition, too!)
• Stimulates new financial investment in the marketplace.
• Makes everyone use the same industry standards.
• Counters disinformation.
• Increases company exposure and increases consumer awareness (esp. for smaller companies).
• Provides greater choice to the consumers.
Proposal
• We need an MMO version of the Audit Bureau of Circulations.
• Established in 1914, the ABC is a non-profit forum of magazine publishers, newspaper publishers, advertising agencies, and advertisers. The group provides credible, verified information critical to the industry by conducting independent, third-party audits of print circulation, readership and web site activity.
• Why can’t we do this?
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