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Introducing a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (in River Delta’s)
Kirsten Kuipers & Dorri te Boekhorst
Building on the work of prof.dr. Karl-HenrikRobert (BIT Karlskrona)
December 3rd 2009
Outline of today and tomorrow
TODAY, December 3rd1. Starting up with personal views of and
connections to sustainable development2. Introducing systems thinking and the Framework
for Strategic Sustainable Development (known as The Natural Step Approach)
3. Looking at three cases as examples in applying the FSSD/TNS-model
4. Exploring the FSSD in depth: e-learning in teams5. Group assignments: working on a case you
choose yourselves; practice in applying the FSSD
Outline of today and tomorrow
TOMORROW, December 4th1. Continue to work on your own case;
preparing a presentation
2. Possibility for coaching / asking questions: Friday > 11.00 a.m.
3. Friday 2.45 p.m.: group presentations of the cases on which you applied the FSSD/TNS-framework
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Systems thinking
Individuals Groups
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
TID
• Forests
• Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Ground water
• Climate
• Metals and Chemicals
• Developing countries
• Global justice
• Interpersonal trust
• ”Stories of meaning”
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Strategic opportunities…
…for those who foresee change:• Resource costs• Waste management• Tax, insurance, legislation, loans • International agreements• New markets• Trust • Citizens/employees• Trade value
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
People are fantastic!
So what’s the problem?
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
About drill-holes…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Structuredoverview
…and how to make use of drill-holes
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Investing with success in mind…
Backcasting
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Nobody can look into the future…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
…but we can invent it!
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Finding a unifying theory
Theoretical science Empirical Science
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Principals…- Necessary- Enough- General- Concrete- Distinct
Sustainable Vision
Time
“Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes, recognizing
patterns and interrelationships,
and learning how to structure those
interrelationships in more effective,
efficient ways.” Peter Senge
Systems thinking
International NGO
Scientific consensus
TNS Framework
Leadership
Strategic Investments
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
So what could we agree on?
Level 1, System
Slow geological cycles (volcano eruptions and weathering)
Slow geological cycles
(sedimentation and mineralization)
Closed system with respect to matter
1) Nothing disappears
2) Everything disperses
Open system with respect to
energy
« Photosynthesis pays the bill » Sustainability
is about the ability of
these cycles to run
indefinitely
Cycles of nature
How we influence the cycles
Relatively large flows of materials from the
Earth’s crust
Introduce persistent compounds foreign to
nature
Physically inhibit nature’s ability to
run cycles
Barriers to people
meeting their basic needs worldwide
Copyright © 2007 The Natural Step
11:59.30
11/40th of a second before midnight: the Industrial Revolution1/80th of a second before midnight: we discover oil1/200th of a second before midnight, we discover how to split atoms.
CyanidesCarbon dioxideMethaneammonia
First plant cellapproximately 3.5 billion years ago
First green plant cellapproximately 1.5 billion years ago
First animal cellapproximately 0.7-1 billion years ago
4.5 Billion Years
Copyright © 2007 The Natural Step
Time?
Evolution/Adaptation/Extinction?Which Species?
...concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust,
...concentrations of substances produced by society,
...degradation by physical means,
...people are not subject to conditions that systematically undermine their capacity to meet their needs.
In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing...
and, in that society...
System
Success
Strategy
Action
Tools
Level 2, Success
A
BC
D
Level 3, Strategy
The ABCD-method for Backcasting
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Direction right?
Flexible platform to full success?
Good return on investment?
If we want to win in a complex system, we need to be able to define what success would be. This can generally not be done at the level of detail, but needs a principled definition.
A principled definition of sustainable success
Maslows hierarchy of needs
Matrix of human needs
FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN NEEDS
AffectionProtection
Understanding
Participation
Subsistence
Identity Idleness
Creation
Freedom
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Organisation/Project
Time
Level 4, Action
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Time
IKEA Hydro Polymers Home Depot Starbucks coffee Electrolux Nike InterfaceMatshushita/Panasonic Scandic Hilton Skanska…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Time
AgricultureForestryEnergyTrafficMaterials…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
- from ”fix” to innovative systems solutions -
Many actors, same language
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Time
ÖvertorneåSEKO (70 local gov’s)WhistlerCalgaryFCMSeattlePortlandAPAEU Round TableChequamegon BayMadison W IPortsmouth NHLawrence NJPittsburgh/Vandergrift RAEvanston ILDuluth MNJefferson County WICorvallis OR…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Strategic opportunities…
• Resource potential huge• Step-by-step while ROI• Main strategy to solve trade-offs • Save - change • Synergies between sectors and actors
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
ISO14001
Triple bottom line
Sustainable growth
Faktor 4
Cleaner Production
Life Cycle
AnalysisZero
EmissionRenewables
RMA
Ecological Footprinting
Sustainability analysis
Ecoliteracy
Factor 10
Hannover Principles
CSR
NaturalCapitalism
Miljömålen
EM
ASEECA
LCA
Ecoeffici
ency Agenda
21
Sustainabili
ty
Level 5, Tools
Time
System Overview
© 2000 The Natural Step. All rights reserved.
Backcasting from principles(like chess)Organization X
Pioneers of tools:ISO 14001IndicatorsLCAEcological footprintsFactor 10Zero EmissionNatural CapitalismCleaner Technology…
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Many good tools and concepts
Different strengths and gaps
None can replace structured systems perspective
Such increases the value of concepts and tools
Don’t wait for tools – get going!
Select and inform tools as needed
Robèrt, K.-H., Schmidt-Bleek, B., Aloisi de Larderel, J., Basile, G., Jansen, L., Kuehr, R., Price Thomas, P. Suzuki, M., Hawken, P., and Wackernagel, M. 2001. Strategic sustainable development – selection, design and synergies off applied tools -. The Journal of Cleaner Production, 10 (2002) 197-214.
Conclusions
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
“We cannot afford sustainable development!”
(Invalid; it is un-sustainability we cannot afford)
Objection 1
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
“We cannot afford sustainable development now! ”
(Invalid; ROI step deals with this)
Objection 2
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
“We can’t afford to go all the way!”
(Invalid; bankruptcy would only follow later)
Objection 3
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
“We cannot afford going all the way fast enough on our own!”
(Valid; cross-sector cooperation necessary)
Objection 4
Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step
Examples:
OK and alcohols
Electrolux and batteries.
Whistler
A
BC
D
Resort Community of Whistler
•A world destination resort
• 2.5+ million visitors, $2 billion+ /year
• Rapid growth
• Winter Olympics 2010
Resort Community of Whistler
An Unlikely Story...
• ”Indulgence and Excess”
• Cheap Hydro power
• Plentiful fossil fuels
• ”Expand production to meet growth...”
www.whistler.ca
WHISTLER2020 Comprehensive Sustainability Plan
Strategies, actions
20602020 Timewww.whistler.ca
2005
Vision of Success
(participatory)
Sustainability Principles
(science-based)
Current reality
Backcasting from principles and Whistler 2020 Vision
Does this action move Whistler toward our shared Vision of Success?
Does this action move Whistler toward our shared Sustainability Principles?
Is the action a good financial investment?
Does the action present a flexible platform for further movement toward Success in the future?
22
4433
11
i.e. avoid ’blind’
investments!
Today’s decisions…… guided by strategic questions
www.whistler.ca
Comprehensive(16 strategies, 1000’s of actions)
Equipment (e.g. Automobiles)
Urban Design/ Re-design
years
space
~10 ~50 100+
100x m
10x m
1000x m
Infrastructure Projects, Community Development
Adapted from Jaccard et. al 1997
Time Scales and Investments
An Example...
~$42 Cdn. million; 50 km., high pressure, capacity for doubled
energy loads
Proposed Natural Gas Pipeline...
Challenges…
Towards Energy Sustainability vision?
Towards Sustainability Principles? (incremental GHG improvement over propane)
Flexible platform?
Good ROI?
• Capital cost ~$30 million (vs. previous $42m.)
• New Whistler Energy Utility
And...
** New ”Energy Services” business unit (for gas company)
New Proposal
e.g. Olympic VillageWas: 100% Natural GasNow: 100% Renewables
WHISTLER2020
“Best Long Term Planning”
2005 LivCom Awards, La Caruna, Spain
WHISTLER2020 Moving Toward a Sustainable Future
www.whistler.ca
StrategicComprehensiveParticipatory/decentralised
Case of Tualatin Valley Water District (USA)
The good thing is that it has been possible to…
1. …demonstrate a self-benefit of individual organizations to plan systematically towards sustainability,
2. …produce a framework for planning and selection of tools,
3. …growing the number of positive role models working like this,
But the sad thing is that…
…many problems remain that slow the process:
1. Competitive advantage to not sharing knowledge.
2. Weak political leadership on Sustainability.
3. Mass medial focus on sensations rather than solutions.
4. Current economic framework dysfunctional (perverse subsidies, obsolete taxes).
5. …and Scientific community remains largely reductionist.
Our hope relies on Local Governments!
Whealthy Rhine
Regional cooperation for flood safety, spatial quality and economic development
Province of Gelderland, City region Arnhem Nijmegen, Region Rivierenland, Province of Gelderland, City region Arnhem Nijmegen, Region Rivierenland, 15 municipalities, Water board, Rijkswaterstaat, Radboud University, 15 municipalities, Water board, Rijkswaterstaat, Radboud University,
knowlegde institues, national fundings, advisories. knowlegde institues, national fundings, advisories.
Multi-stakeholder cooperation project
1. Shared regional vision (umbrella for local projects): what is the problem, what are the outlines and preconditions of the solution? Time period: 2010-2050
2. Dialogue with other municipalities, and other stakeholders: companies, NGO’s, inhabitants, land owners
3. Prepare a package of measures, find financial instruments (business partners)
Method project Wealthy Rhine
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
9 project areas
Sharing local wishes, dreams,
and knowledge
Sharing local wishes, dreams, and knowledge
Ubbergen
Find local solutions, within the Find local solutions, within the visionvision
Getting started yourselves
Apply the 4 system conditions to the Wealthy Rhine Case
Prv RU
-Project coördinatie (financieel/inh.)-Trainingen ondersteuners-Bijeenkomsten, verslaglegging-Knowledge gaps financiering, juridische belemmeringen-Inbreng “Best practices”-Nieuwsbrieven
-Opdrachtgever aan RU-Sturing vanuit beleidskader-Bewaken samenhang en synergie
Voorzitter
Ondersteuners
WWDuurzaamoverkoepelend
Ondersteuning CoP’s (lijnen zijn illustratief)
Organization Toward a Sustainable Wealthy Rhine
Prv
Thank you!
K.Kuipers@science.ru.nl
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