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Most economic growth happens in non-OECD countries, where GDP per person nearly triples from 2018 to 2050
Most energy-intensive manufacturing shifts to non-OECD Asia and, increasingly, to India
The industrial sector is the largest consumer of energy, and energy-intensive manufacturing is the largest component in the sector
Manufacturing centers are shifting toward Africa and South Asia, especially India, resulting in energy consumption growth
Energy-intensive manufacturing gross output1 by regionshare
End-use energy consumption by sectorquadrillion British thermal units
Energy consumption by industrial subsectorquadrillion British thermal units
Average annual percentage change in GDP (gross domestic product), 2018–2050percentage per year
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
India
other non-OECD Asia
China
Africa
rest of world
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
energy-intensive manufacturing
non-energy- intensive manufacturing
non- manufacturing
1Measured in purchasing power parity
industrial
transportation
residential
commercial
0%–2%2%–3%3%–4% >4%
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Source: International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
International Energy Outlook 2019 key takeaway
Consumption of natural gas in 2050trillion cubic feet
Supply of natural gas in 2050trillion cubic feet
Consumption of liquid fuels increases 22% between 2018 and 2050, driven by Asia and Africa
Consumption of liquid fuels in 2050million barrels per day
Supply of crude oil increases 21% between 2018 and 2050, and production remains high in OPEC, Russia, and the United States
Supply of crude oil in 2050million barrels per day
Natural gas consumption rises in Asia, even as regional production stays flat
The United States remains the world’s largest natural gas producer through 2050
0–3 3–9 9–13 13–17 >17
0–1 1–5 5–10 10–15>15
0–5 5–10 10–15 15–20>20
0–1 1–5 5–10 10–25>25
Note: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.Source: International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Natural gas and petroleum product consumption is rising in Asia faster than supply is growing, potentially shifting trade patterns and infrastructure investments
International Energy Outlook 2019 key takeaway
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Source: International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019)
Electricity use grows in the buildings sectors, as access to electricity and electrical appliance use increases in non-OECD countries
Motor gasoline and diesel continue to be the dominant transportation fuels, but the consumption of jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity all increase
Renewables displace petroleum as the most used energy source, as electricity use grows faster than any other end-use fuel
72
9:35
Primary energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units
Electricity use by sectorquadrillion British thermal units
End-use energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units
electricity
coal
natural gas
liquids1
renewables2
Transportation energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2018 2050
OECD
2018
2050
non-OECD
nuclear
1. Includes petroleum and liquid biofuels 2. End use is largely biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2018 2050 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2018 2050
electricity
natural gas
jet fuel
motor gasoline
diesel
residual fuel oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2050
industrial
residential buildings
commercial buildings
transportation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019
End-use consumption is increasingly shifting toward electricity
International Energy Outlook 2019 key takeaway
In OECD Europe, emission policies drive adoption of solar and wind, and they slow growth of natural gas and coal
In non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, low demand growth and fewer policy incentives result in a slower changing electricity mix
Share of net electricity generation
The electricity mix in China changes through a combination of growth and policy incentives
0%
100%
2018 2050
In India, rapid demand growth, declining renewables costs, and policy incentives drive adoption of coal, solar, and wind
0%
100%
2018 2050
0%
100%
2018 2050
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
0%
100%
2018 2050
OECD Europe India
China
other
solar
wind
hydro
nuclear
naturalgascoal
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Source: International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019)
International Energy Outlook 2019 key takeaway
Falling costs, demand growth, and policy all work together to shift the electricity generation mix
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